World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Montenegro v San Marino (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.01[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]26[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]76[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]104.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Northern Ireland v Azerbaijan (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.63 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 14 November 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Oman v Japan (11:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.15 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.53 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Iraq v Jordan (13:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.12 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.25 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Qatar v Lebanon (14:45 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Iran v Uzbekistan (16:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Jase82]

I think Northern Ireland are desperately short here for the win. They're a best 1.9 with Skybet for the win, while they're much much lower elsewhere. I feel around evens is a fairer price. Azerbaijan are probably an improving side, and are capable IMO of pulling off a draw here. Northern Ireland have had their recent results, but once again they're being hit with multiple withdrawals. Quality is already at a premium throughout the side, and I don't think they're as strong as they have been. But I can see why they will get some attention here as they have had a couple of great performances and results, yet I'm not sure they can maintain that level of performance.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th How come a team which has won only one home game - vs. Faroe Islands, in the last 3 and a half years, is priced at 1.85?! NI used to be a good side at home 5 or 6 years ago, but not any more, so this price is an utter joke. Yes, they stole a draw in Portugal, but they only defended for the whole game and used the underestimation factor, while now they are expected to create and build-up something up-front and I don't think they are capable enough. I know Azerbaijan are nothing special, but at least they know how to defend and have a good goalkeeper - they held Russia in Moscow for 80 minutes and Portugal in Lisbon for 65 minutes. NI here should be at least 2.40-2.50, unless there are some major missings among the Azeris.

[swindonfan]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th I think the price is about right. Northern Ireland squad is mostly made up of lower level premier league players, championship players and scottish premier league players. On paper it is a decent squad. How many Azerbijan players would be good enough even for league 1 in england? Very few I suspect. Apart from Andorra and San Marino there isnt much worse than Azerbijan.

[andyfmfb]

How come a team which has won only one home game - vs. Faroe Islands, in the last 3 and a half years, is priced at 1.85?! NI used to be a good side at home 5 or 6 years ago, but not any more, so this price is an utter joke. Yes, they stole a draw in Portugal, but they only defended for the whole game and used the underestimation factor, while now they are expected to create and build-up something up-front and I don't think they are capable enough. I know Azerbaijan are nothing special, but at least they know how to defend and have a good goalkeeper - they held Russia in Moscow for 80 minutes and Portugal in Lisbon for 65 minutes. NI here should be at least 2.40-2.50, unless there are some major missings among the Azeris.

Contradicting yourself there, no? Rubbishing NI result as a 'stolen draw', defending throughout (far from a steal IMO), yet praise Azerbaijan for 'holding out for 65 mins against the same side? For what it's worth, I think it'll be a draw. Your point about creativity being one i agree with. Same goes for Azerbaijan. If not for all the NI withdrawals, I'd be all over anything over 1.8.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

Contradicting yourself there, no? Rubbishing NI result as a 'stolen draw', defending throughout (far from a steal IMO), yet praise Azerbaijan for 'holding out for 65 mins against the same side? For what it's worth, I think it'll be a draw. Your point about creativity being one i agree with. Same goes for Azerbaijan. If not for all the NI withdrawals, I'd be all over anything over 1.8.

Not really contradicting, mate. Yes, Azerbaijan are not creative as well, maybe even less than NI. And if Azerbaijan are priced 1.80 at home, I will say exactly the same thing about them. However, it is NI that is the host and that got 1.80. It is NI that has to be looking for goals and breaking up defense with creativity and pace. Azerbaijan will be more than happy defending for a draw and they will very likely get it. The price for "Away or Draw" is 2.10. In my opinion this is a more likely outcome than a home win, and it is better priced. Where is the contradiction here?!

[Jase82]

Under 2.5 goals would be the call here without doubt. I can't see it being pretty. Available at 1.66 -various - that's fair to me as I'd say it should be around 1.55

[hebert10]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th Northern Ireland v Azerbaijan Azerbaijan/Draw Double Chance @ 11/10 Paddypower The only team NI have beaten in the last 2 years in competitive competition has been the Faroe Islands and I don't see there fortunes changing against Azerbaijan tomorrow night. Whilst this should be a really close game for 2 of the teams playing mainly for pride in this competition I feel the value lies with away side for this game. Both teams do have trouble scoring and this game could be decided by a single goal or even just fizzle out in to a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

[kevshat]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th 3pts Northern Ireland to win by 1 goal 13/5 Bet365 Northern Ireland should win this match but they haven’t really inspired confidence for a long while. Hopefully from their point of view that draw in Portugal will have given them renewed belief to go on and win this match. You get the feeling if they do win this one it will only be by the odd goal in a tight match especially given the struggles of both sides and what the match means to both sides. I see little value in the 8/11 about Northern Ireland winning but a bit more in the 13/5 that they win by one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/northern-ireland-vs-azerbaijan-betting-northern-ireland-can-build-on-portugal-result-with-tight-win

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th The odds for Montenegro-San Marino are released finally. And here comes pg_yid's favorite big lump bet - "San Marino not to score". It is priced at 1.20. The last time SM scored a goal in a competitive fixture was in October 2008. This makes 21 consecutive games without a goal. The last time SM scored away from home was in.....2001. It equals to 27 away games without a goal. Montenegro will have some important missings like Jovetic and Vucinic, but the squad named by the coach is many classes above the waiters and bank clerks of San Marino. Knowing how comfortable and confident Montenegro is in possession, I give less than 5-10% chance of San Marino to make a shoot in direction of hosts' goal. The chance of them scoring is less than 1% in my opinion, definitely not 1.20 price. However, I have only one a little paranoic worry. I now this forum does not tolerate match fixing speculation. But I am a little worried when a team from the region is concerned and the price for an away goal is 4.33. In the end, who will notice and make a big deal about a San Marino late goal if Montenegro nets 6-7 goals before that?!

[NoFear]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

But I am a little worried when a team from the region is concerned and the price for an away goal is 4.33. In the end, who will notice and make a big deal about a San Marino late goal if Montenegro nets 6-7 goals before that?!

its even available at bigger odds at some books. like bwin has it at 5.00 match-fixing is a big issue here. I would stay away as well. Unless someone from the region can enlighten us.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

its even available at bigger odds at some books. like bwin has it at 5.00 match-fixing is a big issue here. I would stay away as well. Unless someone from the region can enlighten us.

On the other hand, I have watched San Marino a few times. And believe it or not, but they are so pathetic technically that it is very hard to let them score a goal, even if you deliberately are trying so. They just cannot organize a decent attack.

[NoFear]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

On the other hand' date=' I have watched San Marino a few times. And believe it or not, but they are so pathetic technically that it is very hard to let them score a goal, even if you deliberately are trying so. They just cannot organize a decent attack.[/quote'] :rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin well in that case , montenegro may not risk it for they might end up making it obvious.

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th I could play in goal for Montenegro and San Marino wouldn't score. Match fixing only works if you have a side that have the ability to create opportunities! San Marino lack the basic footballing skills, similar to a pub team they can't pass or dribble the ball, and believe me I have watched them plenty.. Might be worth waiting for better odds, England were better than 1.2 not to concede against San Marino, although I will take it if I have to.

[Jase82]

Do own goals count?

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th I agree with HastGill- worth waiting but will take it if necessary. Sometimes one firm comes out with a real beauty of a price for this one so we'll see. If the 1.2 drops then so be it.

[NoFear]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

Do own goals count?

san marino is not skilled enough to bring the ball to the opponents half so own goal is out of the question. however, montenegro defender could "slip" ;) and let the san marino waiter to run away with the ball. But still hard to fix.

[soccer_fan]

2014 FIFA WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS - ASIA 14/11/2012 Iraq X Jordan game in Qatar , Iraq miss 8 important players , this team is almost youth with no experince . Jordan +0.25 good worth bet here

[blackcrow]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 sportsbet Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet Montenegro beat San Marino 6-0 on the road and the expectation is that they will beat them by this much or even more, however a win for Montenegro is enough for them to go past England and to the top of the group. They are without a number of key players, with the most important being Vucinic, who is suspended for this game, and Jovetic who is injured. San Marino will park the bus as they have also been beaten 5-0 by England, but they did hold them out to 2-0 until the 70th minute before conceding three more goals in the space of 10 minutes. Like the away side to do enough to hold out a depleted Montengro side, who also may be complacent coming into this game, with a win by 2 or 3 goals enough for them to move on from here. Doubt that San Marino will score, as they have not shown the ability to create chances, and given they are more likely to defend, so as to get some sort or respetaiblity for themselves, then like this to be a low scoring game

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 sportsbet Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet Montenegro beat San Marino 6-0 on the road and the expectation is that they will beat them by this much or even more, however a win for Montenegro is enough for them to go past England and to the top of the group. They are without a number of key players, with the most important being Vucinic, who is suspended for this game, and Jovetic who is injured. San Marino will park the bus as they have also been beaten 5-0 by England, but they did hold them out to 2-0 until the 70th minute before conceding three more goals in the space of 10 minutes. Like the away side to do enough to hold out a depleted Montengro side, who also may be complacent coming into this game, with a win by 2 or 3 goals enough for them to move on from here. Doubt that San Marino will score, as they have not shown the ability to create chances, and given they are more likely to defend, so as to get some sort or respetaiblity for themselves, then like this to be a low scoring game

Good luck, but I would not recommend this kind of bet. Yes, Jovetic and Vicinic are out, but Montenegro is expected to field three forwards for this game, all of whom are also high class. They are Filip Casalica - best striker of Red Star Belgrade, Beqiraj from Dinamo Zagreb - probably the best forward in Croatian League, Delibasic from Rayo Valecano. Furthermore, I checked San Marino's away results, and they conceded less than 4 goals only three times in the last ten years. They conceded less than 5 goals in their visits only 6 times for the last ten years. Also, this argument about them getting the last three goals in the previous encounter only in the last twenty minutes is not solid enough in my opinion, because this type of teams always concede goals in the last minutes - this is because of their lack of fitness. So, those goals were not just lucky strikes in the last minutes of the game, but something very logical that happens often when these minnows play.

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th Bet365 down to 1.1 on to win to nil, that looks like it..nobody else is pricing it up.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th [h=2]Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th[/h]Montenegro v San Marino

Bet365 down to 1.1 on to win to nil' date=' that looks like it..nobody else is pricing it up.[/quote'] Paddypower have over 3.5 at 1.29 (2/7) which looks like a very decent price compared to the 1.1 for the win to nil . You would imagine that Montenegro would score at least four and as Fedar pointed out above San Marino have conceded less than 4 goals only three times in the last ten years. A better priced alternative perhaps? :)

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 sportsbet Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 sportsbet Montenegro beat San Marino 6-0 on the road and the expectation is that they will beat them by this much or even more, however a win for Montenegro is enough for them to go past England and to the top of the group. They are without a number of key players, with the most important being Vucinic, who is suspended for this game, and Jovetic who is injured. San Marino will park the bus as they have also been beaten 5-0 by England, but they did hold them out to 2-0 until the 70th minute before conceding three more goals in the space of 10 minutes. Like the away side to do enough to hold out a depleted Montengro side, who also may be complacent coming into this game, with a win by 2 or 3 goals enough for them to move on from here. Doubt that San Marino will score, as they have not shown the ability to create chances, and given they are more likely to defend, so as to get some sort or respetaiblity for themselves, then like this to be a low scoring game

I did not show much trust in your bet, but it turned out to be a great choice and the pick for night so far! Congratulations!

[blackcrow]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers > Wednesday November 14th

Montenegro v San Marino under 3.5 @ 3.45 :D Montenegro v San Marino under 4.5 @ 2.13 :D

Sometimes logic says that this is what should happen etc (and i have been on the wrong end of this many times) and normally, Montenegro would win this game by 5 or 6 goals at least. Just did not understand what the motivation is then for them to rack up a score. In the end, reality was they were not as focused and clinical as you would have expected. Another example was Australia's win over South Korea. Even i doubted that they would win this game, yet look what happened. Sometimes when trying to predict games, motivation needs to be given a far better look at then just stats.