Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at -2% )

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) You may assume all posted bets have been with Betfair. I have been trying out a few other exchanges and a few bookies to see how things go but only for a small part of the stake. So far i've no evidence that i would have done better using the bookies. A big part in this is that i do this with a substantial sized stake, quite a bit above the max. stake at many bookies. That in itself limits the number of bookies available to me, and that limits the number of bets as often the top prices are found at low limit bookies. Nevertheless if you can include some of the bonus money around then you can 'blow up' the odds at some bookies and they become interesting again. An example: Pinnacle have a sign-up bonus of 10% , use that with your bet and the odds also increase by 10% , until you hit a loser after which you can't use the bonus money anymore as thats lost. Deposit 100 , get 10 for free, Bet 110 on a 1.25 selection you only actually risk 100 for a profit of 27.5 so you 'blow up' odds of 1.25 to 1.275 You can repeat this until you hit a loser. And with this system and a bit of luck that could go a long way. ( and remember to get the bonus money payed out you need to risk the deposit 3x , so use it on at least 3 games, and leave the money with Pinnacle for at least 30 days ALWAYS read the small print on promotions !!! )

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) I'm not called 'Devious Mind Punter' for nothing you know :lol Galatasaray tonight, going for 1.25 :hope

[pralque]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) buddy I am sending you a pm, I got a lot of things to tell you, well as soon as I get to that 50 post margin, I suppose I am welcome to, wouldn't want to be intruding on your privacy.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% )

I got a lot of things to tell you

sounds like you are going to give me a piece of your mind :unsure :lol You, (anyone), can also mail me at: [email protected]

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Galatasaray matched at 1.24

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Olympiacos was a winner +2.185 Galatasaray a winner +2.28 Profit stands at +107.56 :clap And an early look at the weekend to come: 01-04-2006 13:30 Bayern v Koln 1.16 German Bundesliga 01-04-2006 17:30 Roosendaal v PSV 1.25 Dutch First Division 01-04-2006 18:30 Internazionale v Messina 1.25 Italian First Division 02-04-2006 16:30 AEK v Levadiakos 1.20 Hellenic National League 02-04-2006 19:15 Porto v Gil Vicente 1.16 Portuguese SuperLiga Carefull with the early odds, only a couple of bookies have prices up so far.

[alun]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) DP I notice you're trying to get matched at a given price. How do you work out what this price is? If the answer compromises Joe's method then please PM me with the answer as I have bought it from Joe already (tonight in fact!) Al

[alun]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +6.18% )

21-03-2006 20:00 Barcelona v Getafe Spanish First Division Average 1.22, Getafe is half way the league table but still no match for Barcelona at home, i'll take 1.28. 21-03-2006 19:30 Ayr v Gretna Scotland Division 2 Average 1.30, it's on the edge of the odds range and an away match so not everybodies cup of tea, but Gretna seem to pulverise any oppositions and don't seem to care if its home or away. I'll have a shot at 1.35 but doesn't look like i'll get matched. 22-03-2006 18:30 Basel v Aarau Swiss Football League Average 1.25, top against bottom team with Aarau showing bad recent for to top it off, i'll have a stab at 1.30 22-03-2006 19:45 Celtic v Inverness Scottish Premier League Average 1.20, looking at the stats i think Celtic may have a match on teir hands here, average price seems quite low considering Inverness are half way the league table and second in the away table, going to sleep on this one and see what the price does by kick-off. Probably going to stay on the cautious side and not bet. 22-03-2006 20:05 Chelsea v Newcastle NOT English Premiership but FA CUP Average 1.30, on the edge of the odds range and a Cup game, i'm giving it a miss. 22-03-2006 20:00 Internazionale v Udinese NOT Italian First Division but CUP Average 1.31, average odds too high and a Cup game, no bet for me.

Why these prices ordered? Is there a mathematical formula you're using?

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Alun, Nope, i simply make a guess. Nothing more than that. Look at the average, i'm currently using www.betexplorer.com with the odds from Betbrain ( without the eastern european bookies ) and sometimes double check with other odds comparison sites. Then i look at the market on Betfair and apply a bit of experience. Early markets can be misleading, some rise in price some fall, i make an initial guess and set the price a bit high. Then i have a look at the average and Betfair every now and then, say twice a day no more, and adjust the price according to how the market goes. Usually lower the price i want as long as i'm reasonably above average. Many times the prices drops below average and i let it go, in most cases i let the price i want ride right until kick-off and make a final descision then. ( time permitting ) In the end it comes down to betting at a price reasonably above average. That simple.

[alun]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% )

Alun' date= Nope, i simply make a guess. Nothing more than that. Look at the average, i'm currently using www.betexplorer.com with the odds from Betbrain ( without the eastern european bookies ) and sometimes double check with other odds comparison sites. Then i look at the market on Betfair and apply a bit of experience. Early markets can be misleading, some rise in price some fall, i make an initial guess and set the price a bit high. Then i have a look at the average and Betfair every now and then, say twice a day no more, and adjust the price according to how the market goes. Usually lower the price i want as long as i'm reasonably above average. Many times the prices drops below average and i let it go, in most cases i let the price i want ride right until kick-off and make a final descision then. ( time permitting ) In the end it comes down to betting at a price reasonably above average. That simple.

Thanks DP. But don't you have a minmum that you can't go under or it will cut your profits?

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) I tend to look for at least 0.02 above average, so average 1.25 i would go no lower than 1.27 ( after commission ) so about 1.28 before commission, but it is not a fixed thing. On occasion i include a subjective judgment on how strong a bet is, which will be different for other persons. I've had a look in my spreadsheet and had i taken prices lower i would still be in profit up to 33% less :loon Must add that i've just had a really good run ! ( so a price of 1.25 minus 33% is 1.168 (before commission of 5% )) Here is the yield for lower prices: Actual 6.78% prices -05% yield = 5.77% prices -10% yield = 4.76% prices -15% yield = 3.76% prices -20% yield = 2.75% prices -25% yield = 1.74% prices -30% yield = 0.74% prices -35% yield = -0.27% Again, i've just had a good run and i expect to end up with a yield around 5%, that means that i could take prices that are 20% less than what i'm doing now and still expect to make a profit. For example an average of 1.21 and i normally go for 1.26(1.247), -20% means taking 1.234(1.222) , so after commission taking a price just above average. So i have some room to manouver but not all that much. This quick look would indicate that if you bet on or just above the actual average prices you may expect to break even. ( which confirms the existence of a price bias ) It really does come down to betting at a good price or not bet.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) 01-04-2006 13:30 Bayern v Koln German Bundesliga Average 1.16, top against bottom, doesn't get better, going for about 1.21 :hope 01-04-2006 17:30 Roosendaal v PSV Dutch First Division Average 1.22, even as an away game it's top against bottom, go for 1.26 01-04-2006 18:30 Internazionale v Messina Italian First Division Average 1.28, price a bit borderline but Messina is no match for Inter Milan, and to top it off looks like you can get a price above 1.35 :ok 02-04-2006 16:30 AEK v Levadiakos Hellenic National League Average 1.18, looks like a good bet but only a handfull of prices available right now, going to have another look later. 02-04-2006 19:15 Porto v Gil Vicente Portuguese SuperLiga Average 1.17, top against bottom, normal selection, going for about 1.22

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Update... Bayern matched at 1.21 PSV 1/3 matched at 1.25 Inter Milan matched at 1.365 Average on AEK still 1.18 and not too many bookies price this up. Worth a shot at a price somewhere above 1.21 Porto too early to tell, no match yet.

[mattsthebest]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Data, How about the Anderlect/Lokeren game tonight @ 1.28.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) When i first looked average was 1.30 i think, it's now 1.28 but on Betfair Anderlecht is trading at 1.32 so not much in it, and looking at the stats Anderlecht is top of the league but Lokeren is half way, so not an obvious winner i'd say. Too many borderline things to include for me.

[AJ]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) You missed a bomb on Anderlecht, I got matched at 1.35. but it still lost. Matched on Inter @ 1.37, and will be looking for 1.32 on St Pauli, surprised you've left them off

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Sorry you lost on Anderlecht Foolsgold, ( but very nice to see i was right to leave it out ) If you mean St. Pauli vs Chemnitzer then thats Bundesliga 3, i never do lower leagues with the exception of England or Scotland. Main source of profit for this system is the existence of a price bias, a condition for that to happen is that the bookmaker actually gets a large volume of bets forcing him to limit his potential loss on the outsider. Can't really see that happening on low leagues but at the same time must admit i haven't looked into it in detail. The point is supported by the fact that on Betfair there was only a total of 9000£ matched on St. Pauli. England and Scotland have such a large betting tradition that i think even the lower leagues get plenty of action so i'll include some of the games. Glad to say saturday's matches are all matched as prices are going down. On AEK and Porto i'm going for a price of 1.22, but i won't be around at kick-off so i won't know until afterwards if it's a match or not. :hope

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.99% ) Well didn't get matched on AEK and i did on Porto, both won 2-0. Bayern -10 PSV +2.375 Inter Milan +3.4675 Porto +2.09 Total staked 1781.6 Total returned 1887.091267 Yield 1.059211533 5.92% Winners 158 Losers 25 Strike Rate 86% Current bank 205.4912667 Profit/Loss +105.4912667

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Didn't fancy anything midweek, an early look at the weekend, 08-04-2006 14:00 Hearts v Dunfermline 1.28 Scottish Premier League 08-04-2006 14:00 Rangers v Motherwell 1.22 Scottish Premier League 08-04-2006 16:00 Olympiacos v Egaleo 1.18 Greece Hellenic National League 09-04-2006 11:00 Chelsea v West Ham 1.25 English Premiership 09-04-2006 12:30 PSV v Groningen 1.30 Dutch First Division 09-04-2006 13:00 Messina v Treviso 1.30 Italian First Division 09-04-2006 14:00 OFI v Akratitos 1.18 Greece Hellenic National League 09-04-2006 14:00 Panathinaikos v Halkidona 1.22 Greece Hellenic National League 09-04-2006 16:00 Fenerbahçe v Sivasspor 1.15 Turkish Superleague thats it so far, should be a good weekend :tongue2

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) 08-04-2006 14:00 Hearts v Dunfermline Scottish Premier League Average 1.24, Hearts second only to Celtic, i'll have a go at a good price. 08-04-2006 14:00 Rangers v Motherwell Scottish Premier League Average 1.22, not all that obvious as Motherwell has managed to get half way the league, so odds appear a bit low, will have a go but only at a really good price. 08-04-2006 16:00 Olympiacos v Egaleo Greece Hellenic National League Average 1.16, Egaleo has managed to get half way the league table but should be no match for Olympiacos at home. I'll go for about 1.20 09-04-2006 11:00 Chelsea v West Ham English Premiership Average 1.26, and again a middle of the league team but still no match for Chelsea at home, i'll have a go at 1.30+ 09-04-2006 12:30 PSV v Groningen Dutch First Division Average now 1.32, too high, no bet for me. 09-04-2006 13:00 Messina v Treviso Italian First Division Average 1.28, both teams bottom of the league, no bet for me. 09-04-2006 14:00 OFI v Akratitos Greece Hellenic National League Average 1.17, again both teams bottom of the league, no bet for me. 09-04-2006 14:00 Panathinaikos v Halkidona Greece Hellenic National League Average 1.18, and again a half-way the league team but still no match for Panathinaikos at home, going for 1.23+ 09-04-2006 16:00 Fenerbahçe v Sivasspor Turkish Superleague Average 1.15, go on, have a guess, yep Sivasspor half way the league table but no match for Fenerbache, having a go at 1.20 It appears these favourites aren't all that obvious as most opponants have managed to get some points in during the season, tread carefully i'd say and go for really good prices. So far Joe has advised only Rangers, Fenerbache and Panathinaicos. Take heed :lol

[AndyR]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Pinnacle are offering 1.23 on Fenerbache, Coral 1.222 which are both currently above the price on betfair. Add your 10% deposit bonus on openning an account with Pinnacle and you must be on a winner here! Good luck!

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) got Rangers at 1.29 and Hearts at 1.27 but price on Olympiacos is bad, don't expect to get matched there. AndyR, well spotted, thats the thinking that leads to profit. just remember you need to repeat that 3 times to make the rollover.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Rangers +2.755 Hearts +2.565 As expected no match on Olympiacos, price never got above average. Profit stands at +110.81

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Chelsea matched at kick-off at 1.32 Panathinaikos matched at 1.23 still waiting on Fenerbahce but average has gone down to 1.15 so should get matched around 1.20isch.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Got Fenerbahce matched at 1.21 and guess what....... all winners :clap Chelsea +3.04 Fenerbahce +2.185 Panathinaikos +1.995 Total staked 1811.6 Total returned 1924.311267 Yield 1.06221642 6.22% Winners 161 Losers 25 Strike Rate 87% Current bank 212.7112667 Profit/Loss +112.7112667 this must have been some match :lol

FT		Panathinaikos [4 - 3] Atromitos
3'	[0 - 1]		Merino
21'	[1 - 1]	T. Gekas
23'	[2 - 1]	D. Papadopoulos
27'	[3 - 1]	C. Charalambides
28'	[3 - 2]		Gimbour
73'	[3 - 3]		Djembur
80'	[4 - 3]	T. Gekas

[mattsthebest]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) What do u think of Austria to beat Mattersburg?

[davidmphill]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Nice going here DP, slow and steady profit. Long may it continue.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) davidmphill Thank you very much and 'hear 'hear long may it continue indeed :lol mattsthebest 12-04-2006 Austria v Mattersburg , well so far i have pretty much ignored Austrian soccer because it seems to be a small league that does not attract a lot of money. And without a lot of money there is little reason for the bookmakers to create a price bias on the favourite. It is also possible i'm completely wrong here :unsure SO, i can imagine other people with some more knowledge of Austrian football to include this. Average odds are 1.28, which is borderline to be included, - Austria Wien is top of the league and Mattersburg last but one, - nevertheless Mattersburg have collected 33 points this season so they are not that rubbish. - Mattersburg last but one looking at away games, - Austria Wien only 4th in the table of home games, so they have dropped a few points at home. - Austria Wien's last 3 matches where a draw, and one of the matches ended 4-4 against the bottom of the league team Admira/Wacker - Remember that there are only 10 teams in the whole league. - Betfair price is currently showing 1.31 to back and 1.35 to lay with a few hundred euro's as liquidity. You may be able to get 1.33 which is 1.31 after commission. And this market supports the assumption that there is little money being bet so little reason for the bookies to accept a price bias. So based on this general picture, without looking any deeper, it's just not a straighforward win for me. Too many things appear inconsistent. I can imagine someone else including it but for me it's no bet.

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Actually WillHill have 1.35 on Austria, i'd say its an opportunity to trade, back 1.35 at William Hill and Lay on Betfair for a sure profit :ok

[Datapunter]

Re: Soccer Hot Favourites System ( at +5.92% ) Here we gooo here we gooo here we gooooo :nana Potentials for the weekend: 14-04-2006 18:45 Man. United v Sunderland 1.10 English Premiership 14-04-2006 18:45 Porto v Leiria 1.28 Portuguese SuperLiga 15-04-2006 13:00 Treviso v Fiorentina 1.27 Italian First Division 15-04-2006 13:30 Bayern v Arminia 1.22 German Bundesliga 15-04-2006 14:00 Arsenal v West Brom 1.25 English Premiership 15-04-2006 14:00 Berwick v East Fife 1.25 Scotland Division 3 15-04-2006 14:00 Cowdenbeath v E Stirling 1.12 Scotland Division 3 15-04-2006 14:00 Rangers v Aberdeen 1.30 Scottish Premier League 16-04-2006 14:00 AEK v OFI 1.25 Greece Hellenic National League 16-04-2006 16:00 Galatasaray v Rizespor 1.15 Turkish Superleague Remember you can visit the overview page any time, we may get a few more potentials as more bookies start opening markets. http://www.bettingsherlock.com/public/soccer/hotfavupcomingOFF.jsp