Value Hunting Theory

[ThusPrider]

Though I was feeling a bit dodgy that night, I had a massive go at Mark Lawrenson for being a donkey. I thought I'd do this article and share my system with you guys. Please tell me off if you disagree. Quote from my blog: Value hunting has a big difference than trying to predict the outcomes of the match. Predicting the likely outcome of a match simply determines the bookies favourites. Combining the bookies odds and what you perceive of the actual 'odds' of the game finds value. Let's say its a match between Arsenal and Tottenham at the Emirates. You could argue that Arsenal has a stronger squad and also has the home advantage. You think Arsenal are going to win. That's a pretty valid point in determining who is the favourites. Its almost inevitable that the factors are already 'priced' in the odds. Perhaps then you start to think of more factors, such as recent form and injuries. These factors are probably less obvious, but still very likely to already be priced in. Sharks on the exchanges and the elite bookies usually set the drifting/shortening of the odds, a change in volume will change odds mainly because arbitrage situations appear. So you might think you can't win? Not everyone can make a living betting on football. It's important to consider your long term profits if you're serious about your betting. It takes study and experience to train yourself to get a feel for the odds, meaning putting your time into it. Here's the good news. The bookies and sharks on the exchanges almost never get the actual 'odds' of a game right. Though impossible, putting together all the aspects of the game, usually by just watching it, you can tell if a team has been unlucky. If Chelsea got a late sweaty 1 - 0 injury time to win at 1/3 (1.33) odds at home to Stoke playing poorly throughout the game, you'd have to say if I can see into the future, I'd still put money on Chelsea. However if I didn't know they were going to score the late goal but knew they were going to play this poorly, it seems obvious the value is with Stoke. So where to start? Firstly, I suggest that you don't look at the odds. Develop your own 1x2 odds doing research and everything you feel is relevant to the game... injuries, form, past records and so on. Then 'drift' your own odds using a 1x2 100% system. Let's use Arsenal vs Tottenham as another example. You know Arsenal are the favourites, and expect them to win 60% of the time, Tottenham perhaps 15%. That leaves 25% for a draw. You can then quickly scribble down 1x2 60/25/15 and start 'drifting'. Then you may think of a Tottenham injury you did not know before, and hence change the odds to 61/25/14. Villas-Boas also talks on the media about ATTACK. You feel this will backfire, but perhaps narrow the range for a draw, but also meaning Arsenal winning more of the time when Tottenham are going for the win when it is currently a draw. 62/23/15 might be the next stage. Once you get the feel for it, you will get much better at taking all the factors into account. There will then come a point where you realise 1% either way is a massive jump. (50 to 51 is the difference of evens (2.00) odds or 1.04/1 (2.04)). Mug punters won't think there's any difference, but I can tell you that 4% increase is bigger than the margin of any value shark. You will need that to maintain your long term profit. How did I get those odds? I'll talk about that later. So, you get to the point where the drifting might look like 61+/24-/15, or even 61++/24-/15-, which can be written as 62/24-/15- if you take an extra 0.5% as the margin for the +/- signs. Quarters (0.25%) margins should only be considered if you feel you need it and is very familiar with the system. So once you are happy with your odds, lets say to keep things simple to settle at 61/25/14, thinking Arsenal will win 61% of the time. Changing the win percentage into odds and finding value in lay man terms is basically do the division. You take the chance of Arsenal not winning (39%) and do 39 divided by 61. That gives you 0.639. Plus 1 on to get 1.639. Thats the odds equivalent. Now compare your odds to the actual bookie odds to see if there is a contradiction. If the bookies are offering 1/2 (1.50), the odds won't be high enough where as 7/10 (1.70) will be. In the case of the best odds on Arsenal being 1.50, you can consider backing Tottenham +0.5. Because if there isn't enough value on Arsenal, in most cases the value will immediately be suggested on the Tottenham side of the coin. Working out the odds for Tottenham +0.5 is also pretty simple, just do the reverse... 61/39 = 1.564, plus 1 = 2.564. If Arsenal's odds are 1/2, theoretically if there is no aggregate bookie commission, Tottenham +0.5 should be offered at 2/1 (3.00) which will suggest value. But because bookies take an 'aggregate commission', the odds will usually be lower, perhaps 2.90. That will still be higher than 2.564, which is backable. If you find the odds at 3.00, that's more long term profit for you if you're good at using your system. If the odds surpass 3.00, there are arbitrage opportunities available.

[slick mick]

Re: Value Hunting Theory Are you using Kelly to calculate bet size?

[ThusPrider]

Re: Value Hunting Theory

Are you using Kelly to calculate bet size?

No but I think the theory behind it is the same. I just adjust accordingly, though it probably won't be as accurate as using a calculator... but close enough imo.

[moggis]

Re: Value Hunting Theory Er,ThusPrider,I was bemused to read that if you "could see into the future and knew Chelsea would play badly" v Stoke then the value would obviously be with Stoke..... Er,Ill let you into a big secret,but don't tell anyone. To be honest,I find all this value stuff too much like hartd work. I don't like hard work-never have.Thats why I read forums.Incredibly there are people on them who do all the hard work for you,then give their tips for free!!Wonderful! But,anyway,heres what I do-I don't place bets on Premiership games til the game is in play! Of course I will want to know how its going so I watch Sky Soccer Saturday and listen to radio commentary if available...... It amazes me why everyone doesn't do that.....but hey...

[Jase82]

Hunting for value isn't a theory. Value hunting is the practice of seeking the best price that provides a punter with a route to attain an acceptable level of profit. It's no different to walking into Comet's and choosing the best TV that offers you the best value for money.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Value Hunting Theory

Hunting for value isn't a theory. Value hunting is the practice of seeking the best price that provides a punter with a route to attain an acceptable level of profit. It's no different to walking into Comet's and choosing the best TV that offers you the best value for money.

yeah it probably wasn't a great title

[pete-c07]

Re: Value Hunting Theory Thanks for that info ThusPrider. Good of you to take your time to help us amateurs out! The one bad thing about this forum is the fact that theres always some know it all with something smarter to say. In this thread both moggis just couldn't help himself. Moggis ur right, no one on here has EVER heard of in-play betting, you innovator you. JUST READ IT,TAKE WHAT YOU WANT FROM IT AND MOVE ON.