Get the draw on your side !!

[jtw1]

Another season and another system !!! I've been trialing this for a couple of week's on another forum where the rating's i use are posted , goonersguide.com. I've used these a couple of times in the past to no avail , but , i have a good feeling about this one and early results are encouraging . Basically i take those teams who are rated 70+ on the spreadsheet Gooner post's and whose odds given on the list are between 1.8 - 2.4 . The only other criteria is that the selected side must have not lost at least 50% of the the corresponding fixtures he quotes. Here are the figures that made me think there could be mileage in this , he selects only from the EPL , BUNDESLIGA , LA LIGA and SERIE A - 1- Using the Numbers select only those home teams rated 70+ 2- From those selctins choose only those who have home odds between 1.8 and 2.4 Starting from 26/12/09 the stats of wins/draws/loss for each season is - 09/10 season [from 26/12] - 16-8-4 10/11 season - 15-12-5 11/12 season - 18-4-7 Totals for the 3 seasons = 49-23-16 A 10pt win staked on each selection would have returned each season - 09/10 - +32.40pts 10/11 - -38.50pts 11/12 - +46.40pts If we can get the draw in our favour the figures of 72 - 16 look enticing. The way we can get that frustrating draw in our favour is by taking the odds on the home side on the Asian handicap list with 0 being the handicap. That basically means if the selection draws it is treated the same as a non-runner in racing terms and no loss is incurred ie if we bet on 3 teams in a treble and one draws while the other 2 win then we have a double up. EPL - FULHAM v WBA 3-0 Fulham rated 74. Odds advertised - 2.06 h2h - Fulham have won 5/6 , drawn 1/6 GBL - HANNOVER v BREMEN 3-2 Hannover rated 95 Odds - 2.38 h2h - Hannover have won 3/6 , drawn 1/6. EPL - EVERTON v NEWCASTLE 2-2 Everton rated 110 Odds - 1.91 h2h - Everton have won 4/6 , drawn 1/6 FULHAM @ 1.5 HANNOVER @ 1.65 EVERTON @ 1.27 EPL - WEST BROM v READING 1-0 WEST BROM is rated 74 Odds - 1.83 h2h - West Brom have won 1/2 and drawn the other [also 2 draws in Cup comps] Asian 0 h'cap - 1.32 EPL - NEWCASTLE v NORWICH 1-0 NEWCASTLE rated 90 Odds - 1.79 h2h - Newcastle have won 1/2 and drawn the other. [won 2-1 in cup comp] *note the odds on the spreadsheet are just 0.01 below the preferred limit but as they are on 1.8 with bet365 i'll take them] Asian 0 h'cap - 1.35 Serie A - ATALANTA v PALERMO 1-0 ATALANTA rated 85 Odds - 1.85 h2h - Atalanta have won 2/6 and drawn 2/6 Asian 0 h'cap - 1.3 La Liga - LEVANTE v REAL SOCIEDAD 2-1 LEVANTE rated 89 Odds - 2.27 h2h - Levante have won 4/4 Asian 0 h'cap - 1.6 Weds - Bundesliga - B M'GLADBACH v HAMBURG 2-2 M'GLADBACH rated 77 Odds - 2.00 h2h - M'Gladbach have won 2 and drawn from 6 Asian 0 h'cap odds - 1.35 So far the bank has increased from 100pts to 133.17pts Here's the weekends selections and recommended bets - REAL SOCIEDAD v ATH BILBAO SOCIEDAD are rated 111 Odds - 2.4 h2h - Sociedad have won 2 and drawn 2 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds = 1.62 Straight win odds = 2.4 UDINESE v GENOA UDINESE are rated 120 Odds - 1.95 h2h - Udinese have won 2 and drawn 1 from 5 Asian 0 odds = 1.37 Straight win = 1.95 CAGLIARI v PESCARA CAGLIARI are rated 76 Odds - 1.80 h2h - no recent h2h Asian 0 odds = 1.26 Straight win = 1.76 OSASUNA v LEVANTE OSASUNA are rated 79 Odds - 2.1 h2h - Osasuna have won 3 and drawn 1 from 5 Asian 0 odds = 1.4 Straight win = 2.1 Bet 5 is 16pts [from last weeks bet 3] placed on Saturday's only game , REAL SOCIEDAD @ 1.62. Bet 6 is a 10pt treble UDINESE / CAGLIARI / OSASUNA all on the 0 Handicap

[Torque]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! gl jtw :ok

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! REAL SOCIEDAD v ATH BILBAO 2-0 SOCIEDAD are rated 111 Odds - 2.4 h2h - Sociedad have won 2 and drawn 2 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds = 1.62 Straight win odds = 2.4 UDINESE v GENOA 0-0 UDINESE are rated 120 Odds - 1.95 h2h - Udinese have won 2 and drawn 1 from 5 Asian 0 odds = 1.37 Straight win = 1.95 CAGLIARI v PESCARA 1-2 CAGLIARI are rated 76 Odds - 1.80 h2h - no recent h2h Asian 0 odds = 1.26 Straight win = 1.76 OSASUNA v LEVANTE 4-0 OSASUNA are rated 79 Odds - 2.1 h2h - Osasuna have won 3 and drawn 1 from 5 Asian 0 odds = 1.4 Straight win = 2.1 Bet 5 is 16pts [from last weeks bet 3] placed on Saturday's only game , REAL SOCIEDAD @ 1.62. Bet 6 is a 10pt treble UDINESE / CAGLIARI / OSASUNA all on the 0 Handicap Bet 5 returned 25.92pts Bet 6 lost 10pts Starting Bank = 100pts Current Bank = 133.09pts EPL - 7 SELECTIONS , 5 WINS , 1 DRAW , 1 LOSS. SERIE A - 6 SELECTIONS , 4 WINS , 1 DRAW , 1 LOSS. LA LIGA - 8 SELECTION , 7 WIN , 1 DRAW. BUNDESLIGA - 4 SELECTIONS , 1 WIN , 1 DRAW , 2 LOSS.

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! W.B.A v Q.P.R 3-2 :D WBA are rated 96 Odds - 1.91 h2h - WBA have won 1 from 1 Asian 0 H'cap = 1.37 Straight win - 1.9 GENOA v PALERMO 1-1 :) GENOA are rated 92 Odds - 2.22 h2h - Genoa have won 3 and drawn 2 from 5 Asian H'cap = 1.55 Straight win - 2.2 MALLORCA v GRANADA MALLORCA are rated 112 Odds - 1.9 h2h - Mallorca have drawn 1 from 1 Asian 0 H'cap = 1.37 Straight win - 1.83 ATH BILBAO v OSSASUNA ATH BILBAO are rated 99 Odds - 1.93 h2h - Bilbao have won 4 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.4 Straight win - 1.9 BARCELONA v R MADRID BARCELONA are rated 79 Odds - 1.85 h2h - Barcelona have won 3 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.4 Straight win - 1.83 Bet 7 - 10pt double WBA / GENOA Bet 8 - lets see how Saturdays bet does .

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! West Brom certainly did us proud and what a start they have had , great to see Stevie Clarke do so well in his first stint as Boss So to bet 8 ...basically the 13.70pts returned from bet 7 will be the stake for bet 8 which will be a treble at 0 H'cap odds MALLORCA / ATH BILBAO / BARCELONA.

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! W.B.A v Q.P.R 1-0 WBA are rated 96 Odds - 1.91 h2h - WBA have won 1 from 1 Asian 0 H'cap = 1.37 Straight win - 1.9 GENOA v PALERMO 1-1 GENOA are rated 92 Odds - 2.22 h2h - Genoa have won 3 and drawn 2 from 5 Asian H'cap = 1.55 Straight win - 2.2 MALLORCA v GRANADA 1-2 MALLORCA are rated 112 Odds - 1.9 h2h - Mallorca have drawn 1 from 1 Asian 0 H'cap = 1.37 Straight win - 1.83 ATH BILBAO v OSSASUNA 1-0 ATH BILBAO are rated 99 Odds - 1.93 h2h - Bilbao have won 4 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.4 Straight win - 1.9 BARCELONA v R MADRID 2-2 BARCELONA are rated 79 Odds - 1.85 h2h - Barcelona have won 3 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.4 Straight win - 1.83 Bet 7 - 10pt double WBA / GENOA Bet 8 - lets see how Saturdays bet does . 10pt loss means the Bank drops to 123.09pts Frustratingly this weeks loser had the same unavoidable occurance as last weeks loser ..namely red cards were shown in both games .....

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! FULHAM v ASTON VILLA FULHAM rated 148 odds - 1.85 h2h - Fulham have won 2 and drawn 3 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds = 1.35 JUVENTUS v NAPOLI JUVENTUS are rated 91 odds - 1.80 h2h - Juventus have won 4 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds - 1.3 PARMA v SAMPDORIA PARMA are rated 104 odds - 2.20 Parma have won 2 and drawn 2 from 6 Asian H'cap - 1.475 GETAFE v LEVANTE GETAFE are rated 89 odds - 1.91 h2h - Getafe have won 3 and drawn 2 from 5 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.35 ESPANYOL v R VALLECANO ESPANYOL are rated 70 odds - 2.00 h2h - Espanyol have won 4 and drawn 1 from 5 Asain 0 H'cap - 1.375 Bet 9 - Stake 10pt acca

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! FULHAM v ASTON VILLA 1-0 FULHAM rated 148 odds - 1.85 h2h - Fulham have won 2 and drawn 3 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds = 1.35 JUVENTUS v NAPOLI 2-0 JUVENTUS are rated 91 odds - 1.80 h2h - Juventus have won 4 and drawn 1 from 6 Asian 0 H'cap odds - 1.3 PARMA v SAMPDORIA 2-1 PARMA are rated 104 odds - 2.20 Parma have won 2 and drawn 2 from 6 Asian H'cap - 1.475 GETAFE v LEVANTE 0-1 GETAFE are rated 89 odds - 1.91 h2h - Getafe have won 3 and drawn 2 from 5 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.35 ESPANYOL v R VALLECANO 3-2 ESPANYOL are rated 70 odds - 2.00 h2h - Espanyol have won 4 and drawn 1 from 5 Asain 0 H'cap - 1.375 Bet 9 - Stake 10pt acca Oh GETAFE ..... Starting Bank = 100pts Current Bank = 113.09pts Am i following these correctly ....maybe not .. . If i had bet each selection as a 10pt single, at the odds advised on the spreadsheet , then the current bank would now stand at 173.70pts The win/draw/loss ratio since bet 1 stands at 14/5/3 Could it be that straight single wins is the best approach ??

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! SIENA v PALERMO 0-0 :) SIENA are rated 80 odds = 2.32 h2h - 2-2-2 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.55 HANNOVER v M'GLADBACH 2-3 :@ HANNOVER are rated 97 odds - 2.00 h2h - 4-1-1 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.4 LEVANTE v GRANADA 3-1 :loon LEVEANTE are rated 92 odds - 2.08 h2h - 1-0-0 Asian 0 H'cap - 1.45 The individual win odds are 2.20 , 1.95 and 2.00 respectively . I'll stick with the original plan for now but will be keeping an eye on those outright winners !!

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! That HANNOVER result was a sore one after they were 2-0 up till the 70th minute and then conceded 3 goals in 9 mins !!!! Bank now stands at 103.09pts .

[jtw1]

Re: Get the draw on your side !! 3 losers and a draw this weekend....don't know why things go pear-shaped once these ratings based systems are put into action but i'll take the hint and , once more, admit defeat ...