Europa League 2012/13 - Outrights

Dylan · September 16, 2012

I hope the mods don't mind me starting this. Hopefully this can be used to discuss not only outright winners but the various group winners / qualifiers as well. Europa League outrights – Group A Group winner – Anzhi 2.8 at Coral (1.5 / 10 units) There a few reasons why I think Anzhi can top the group here; The first is that that I feel there home games will be quite easy for them. Whilst playing in Moscow isn't as bad as playing in Dagestan, its still a relatively long mid week journey for all the teams, and given the domestic competitions and positions they are currently in I can certainly see Liverpool and Udinese resting players and taking youngsters or reserve players for this trip. If that happens then no reason why Anzhi can't take 7-9 points at home. I can see the other 3 teams taking points of each other so to get near maximum points at home would hold them in good stead to qualify / top the group. Whilst it does work both ways and Anzhi will have to make the long trips from Moscow, they I feel are more focused on this competition and are likely to take a stronger squad. The beat AZ 5-0 away from home in the previous round. It also needs to be said that Anzhi are a good team as well. They’ve spent heavily over the last couple of years and continue to pay ridiculous wages to the likes of Eto. The owners are going to want to see a return on this investment and the seizing of this chance to raise the profile & popularity of the club at a higher level of European competition. A good run in this competition and positive results against teams like Liverpool will do just that. They have the squad of players to do it as well, plenty of experience amongst the ranks, not only with Hiddink as manager but with the likes of Samba, Zhirkov, Boussafa, & the newly recruited Lassana Diarra joining Eto in the team. One last thing to note is that the two main perceived threats in this group, Udinese and Liverpool are going through slight transitions at the moment, and early season results & performances domestically and in Europe haven’t been good. Liverpool are trying to adapt a new style, and whilst Rodgers has brought in a few new faces, it’s not as many as he would have liked which is making things much more difficult for him. You would imagine that he’ll not risk his key players like Suarez & Allen that much in this competition and we could see a lot of youngsters like Morgan & Robinson, or crappy reserve players like Henderson, particularly on the road. Udinese are struggling as well at the moment, with 2 defeats from 2 in the league. They’ve lost a lot of good players over the last 2 summers, and whilst they coped last year, the early signs here are not as promising. They are still not a bad team, but whilst last year they finished 3^rd in the league, at the moment with the squad they have they resemble a mid table outfit, nowhere near as strong and they shouldn’t overly concern any team in this group. A number of new faces were brought into the team over the summer to try and replace those who have gone and Guidolin may use this competition to develop a number of those. I don’t know much about Young Boys, but I do feel Swiss football is developing to a much higher standard now, so they shouldn’t be underestimated either.

Jase82 · September 16, 2012

I hope the mods don't mind me starting this. Hopefully this can be used to discuss not only outright winners but the various group winners / qualifiers as well.

No it's fine mate :) all are welcome to start these threads on their own steam... Thread stickied!

Dylan · September 16, 2012

Re: Europa League 2012/13 - Outrights Thanks Jase. Iâ€™ve got one more for the group stages Europa League outrights â€“ Group H To qualify (Dual Forecast) â€“ Spurs / Lazio 1.73 at Paddy Power (1.5 / 10 units) Whilst both of these two teams have their flaws I do believe that they still will be strong enough to qualify out of this group. Villas Boas has a history in the Uefa Cup having won it with Porto, and should treat it with a little bit more respect than Redknapp did. They will benefit from the fact that they donâ€™t have any long trips as they did last year with Rubin Kazan in their group, and the fact that they have a slightly deeper squad and youngsters with a bit more experience. There is no doubt that key players will be rested for certain games, but when you look at the players not starting todays match vs Reading (such as Adebayor, Caulker, Dempsey, Huddlestone, Parker, Livermore & Lloris) then you see the good depth they have. They were very unlucky to miss out on qualification from their group last season, missing out by a point and undone by the surprise package POAK. I donâ€™t see any such threats in the group this year, and so they should have enough to qualify here. The same thing applies to Lazio really. Theyâ€™ve had a (surprisingly) good start to the season, and going forward they look very well organised and dangerous. They like Spurs have a decent squad which will allow them to rest a few players, whilst being able to bring in the likes of Zarate & Ederson. In defence there are still question marks but with the exception of Spurs I donâ€™t see a team in this group that possesses an attacking threat that should overly concern Lazio. Certainly on the road I can see Lazio going a bit more defensive, probably resting Hernanes so this should provide them with a bit more solidity defensively in the away games and they should be able to sneak some points on the road. They qualified relatively easily from there group last years with a very similar squad. Just to touch on Maribor & Panathanikos, I donâ€™t think either offer much threat here. Maribor whilst dominating the Slovakian league still didnâ€™t impress when I saw them in Europe last season. They took just 1 point in 6 matches and lost twice to Birmingham, conceding plenty along the way as well. Panathanikos have a bigger reputation but have not performed well themselves in European competition over the last couple of years, failing to make it past Champions League qualifiers in the past two years, and also losing to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Europa League qualifying last year as well. Iâ€™m no expert on them but this failure in Europe seems to have had a knock on effect on their squad, which seems low in quality especially in attacking areas. They failed to score vs Malaga in that Champions League qualifyer, and have just 2 goals in 3 games during their poor start to their domestic campaign, both coming from defenders.

hebert10 · October 2, 2012

Re: Europa League 2012/13 - Outrights 5pts Atletico outright @ 10 Paddypower Atleticos Europa League record speaks for itself really, they have won the competition twice in 2010 then again in 2012 already. Many thought after losing Aguero and Forlan they might struggle for goals but they now come in bucket loads from Falcao. They have been handed possibly the easiest group by there standards and i expect them to qualify without risking any of the key players in the group stage. Many teams in this competition who are touted as favourites see this as a bit of an opportunity to play the youngsters/fringe players but Atletico have always been known for taking this competition seriously and they will want to prove again in Europe that they are 'the best of the rest' this season.

Mustafa · December 7, 2012

Re: Europa League 2012/13 - Outrights I am leaning towards Dnipro from Ukraine. They won 5 game sin their group losing only away to Napoli. They are second in Ukrainian League and will most likely qualify for the Champions League next season. Most bookies have them @ 30.00-40.00, while Totesport offers @151.00 which is a decent value in my opinion. But for some reason I can't access their website.

stefanos56 · December 8, 2012

Re: Europa League 2012/13 - Outrights Chelsea outright: 17/2. Rafa loves European football and he still has a quality squad. By the time the knock-out stages start (Feb) he'll have the players much more used to his playing style. They are currently one of the favourites but you'd have to fancy them to progress through to the later stages and so their odds should go in and could possibly be a lay later in the competition.

hoddspur · December 20, 2012

Benfica to win Europa League 25-1 @ Bet365 - In terms of value, I quite like the look of Benfica here. They finished third in their CL group so drop into the last 32 of EL here. They are top of the Portugese league above Porto with 32 points from a possible 36 so far. They have some top players in Luisao, Gaitan and Cardozo who already has 15 goals in all competitions this season and 13 in 10 in the league. Benfica are used to European competition every year and their record in the past few seasons suggests that they could go all the way this year. In 2009/10 they reached the Europa League Quarter Finals, in 2010/11 they reached the Europa League semi-finals and last season they reached the Champions League Quarter finals so they certainly know how to play in Europe. In the next round they face Bayer Leverkusen which admittedly is quite a difficult tie and if they win the tie they will play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux in the last 16. Small stakes on Benfica to win the EL for me. Sent from my iPhone using PL Forum app

quote · December 21, 2012