iparout Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Hi. After a few months of absence, I am starting to put money on sports betting again.. I have read a few articles about money management but haven't found the most suitable way to select the amount of money I' ll put on a game. I am implementing a quite conservative strategy by placing a maximum of 2% of my bankroll on my most confident bets. From a scale of 1-10 points per bet (10 being the most confident ones),I put 2% of my bankroll on the "10 point" bets,deescalating down to 0.2% of my bankroll for the "1 point" bets. Problem is, I do not know when is the optimal time to recalculate my % bet size,based on my changing bankroll. Should I recalculate it after every bet, based on my new bankroll every time, should I wait till the end of a specific time period (i.e one week or one month) to recalculate my bet size, or should I wait until my bankroll reaches a specific amount (x2 or x3 the initial bankroll) ? Which option is optimal in order to walk through bad streaks with the minimum damage to my bankroll and yet be able to profit the most when I'm on a good run ? Thanks a lot for any help/opinions.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Problem is' date=' I do not know when is the optimal time to recalculate my % bet size,based on my changing bankroll.[/quote'] I don't know the answer, but I can tell you what I have been trying to do recently. Like you, I have been trying to stick to a maximum of 2% of my betting bank per bet. I also try and do this for each bookmaker. So, if I have a total betting bank of say £500, spread equally across five different bookmakers, I would have £100 in each, and my maximum bet with each bookie would be £2. I don't increase my stake until the bank reaches a particular target. So if I have a good run and the bank increases from £100 to £200, I might decide to increase the maximum stake to 2% of £200 = £4. I think it's best to keep it simple. The main thing is to be disciplined, and to try not to stake too much (the temptation is always there to take shortcuts when you're sure about a bet - but I find that's often when things go wrong). I've heard that most new businesses fail because they run out of money ('cashflow problems'). I'm beginning to believe that a lot of punters fail for similar reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iparout Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Any other input ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colnroy Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Don't waste your time with this. I bet live on basketball - Deposit money 20-30 euro, than playing some games won 100-150 euro, than withdraw in next day. If you have budget 100-200 or more than you can win a lot of money. If your local bookmaker offers live betting and you can withdraw money in next day, than it's really good if not than you earn a **** money in long term. PM if you want to know more and how win in live betting(football, basketball) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iparout Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Although I am quite sure I can win millions out of a 100£ budget by following your (paid?) advice on live betting, I am still interested in opinions regarding my considerations in the OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Just two main factors to consider: 1.You shoud ALWAYS be comfortable with your stakes (do not cross your fear limit! 2% sounds ok). Rising stakes with your bank ORGANICALY (with stepping or just percentage). 2. You should NEVER decrease your stakes once increased! If your betting strategy has any edge you will survive! Have fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Problem is, I do not know when is the optimal time to recalculate my % bet size,based on my changing bankroll. Should I recalculate it after every bet, based on my new bankroll every time, should I wait till the end of a specific time period (i.e one week or one month) to recalculate my bet size, or should I wait until my bankroll reaches a specific amount (x2 or x3 the initial bankroll) ? There is no answer, there will be little or no difference long term so it's basically a matter of choice. Look at the practical side of things. If you have multiple bets open at the same time then you cannot recalculate for bet to bet. You have no choice but to maintain the same stake size for a while. Given that let's say you do most your betting in the weekend. Then i would calculate the stake before the weekend and stick with it throughput the weekend, recalculate for the next week and then the next weekend and so on. That way you only have to think about it twice a week and can spend more time on your selections. Twice a week or bet by bet really won't make a difference long term so might as well choose which is most practical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iparout Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? There is no answer, there will be little or no difference long term so it's basically a matter of choice. Look at the practical side of things. If you have multiple bets open at the same time then you cannot recalculate for bet to bet. You have no choice but to maintain the same stake size for a while. Given that let's say you do most your betting in the weekend. Then i would calculate the stake before the weekend and stick with it throughput the weekend, recalculate for the next week and then the next weekend and so on. That way you only have to think about it twice a week and can spend more time on your selections. Twice a week or bet by bet really won't make a difference long term so might as well choose which is most practical. I see. How about mulkis' opinion ? Should I never reduce stakes ? I, personally, do not agree. Back in the day when I used to play poker, I moved up stakes when my bankroll reached a certain limit (300 Big Bets in Limit Holdem), but was prepared to move down stakes as well if I hit a losing streak. Thankfully, that never happened and I continued moving upwards until I stopped playing, though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? I agree with Datapunter that it makes little difference whether you change the stake every bet or only occasionally (so long as you don't leave it too long). After all, you're never going to figure out precisely what the "right" percentage is, so the inevitable inaccuracy in picking this number is going to make a lot more difference than a small difference in when you increase the stake by a small amount. Having said that, if you did have an accurate figure for the "right" percentage, then (aside from the issue of what to do when you placed a bet before a previous bet had been settled) it would be theoretically right to recalculate the stake every bet. Here's my simple (but correct :D) way of thinking about staking systems, which often makes it obvious which are nonsense. Each time you make a bet, you have to decide the stake, whether you have a "system" or not. What factors are relevant to the size of the stake? Well, the merits of the specific bet, of course. And the amount of money you have to bet with. But unless you have some reason to think that your previous results will affect the success of this bet, your previous results are irrelevant (except in so far as they affect your confidence in the bet you're about to make). So, for example: Martingale (bet more because you've just lost) ... nonsense. Bet a lot more after a winning bet ... nonsense (betting a bit more because you have a bit more money is fine, but not a lot more). If you do bet a fixed percentage of your bank, whether you recalculate every bet or only occasionally, I strongly disagree with never reducing your stake after losses. This is betting more just because you used to have more money, which goes against my principle. In fact, if you increase your stake to a fixed percentage when you win, but never decrease it, then you will eventually go broke. To see this (supposing your percentage is 2%), think of it like this. You're starting with 50 units and staking one unit per bet until either you go broke or you're in profit, at which time you recalculate the size of a unit and do exactly the same again. Each time you start, there is a non-zero (although possibly small) probability that you'll go broke before getting in profit. Assuming there's no change in the kinds of bet you make, it's the same probability each time. Even if it's only a 0.1% probability, it will happen eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? I would still advokate NOT TO REDUCE stakes once increased. My logic behind this is that if you have a sound strategy you should fight back from a bad spell of variability with the same stakes you run into it. Otherwise you will oscilate up and down with no real progress long time. But you DO need to have a strategy with an edge. If there is no real edge in your actions you will go bust inevitably. The sooner the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totoboss Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Please advise a staking / money management system when you are laying selections on betfair. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? I would still advokate NOT TO REDUCE stakes once increased. My logic behind this is that if you have a sound strategy you should fight back from a bad spell of variability with the same stakes you run into it. Otherwise you will oscilate up and down with no real progress long time. But you DO need to have a strategy with an edge. If there is no real edge in your actions you will go bust inevitably. The sooner the better. Well, the fact that increasing to a fixed percentage but never decreasing inevitably leads to going broke in the long run still seems a bit of a disadvantage to me. :D I think I understand your argument: if you decrease your stake after a bad spell, then it will take you longer to get back to where you were? Here are some reasons I think that's flawed. Suppose, for sake of argument, that we start with a bank of £500 and stake 2% on each bet, except that I always stake 2% of the current bank, but you never reduce your stake once you've raised it, so your stake is 2% of your historical maximum bank. So we both start by staking £10 per bet. Suppose we start with a great run of winning bets, and get up to £1000, so our stake has increased to £20. Then we have a dreadful run of losing bets and you go back down to £500. But you're still staking £20. First point: I'll have been gradually reducing my stake during the losing run, so I won't have lost quite as much as you. But let's ignore that. Second point: You're now in exactly the same situation as when you started (you have £500). If it's now right to stake £20, why wasn't it right to stake £20 rather than £10 at the start? Third point: I agree that if this is going to be the start of a winning run that will recoup the losses, then you're right to bet more. But you don't know that. If the losing run continues then you'll get into a much worse hole, but I'll do less badly since I'll be betting less. I agree, of course, that you need a strategy with an edge. There's no magic staking plan that will make a winning strategy out of bad bets. But the point of a good staking plan is to balance profit and risk, and the smaller your bank is, the less you can safely bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Inspired by this discussion I've just made some modeling based on the real data (my own betting records). Strange enough staking with reduction and with no-reduction made no difference for me long run... I've ended with almost the same profit amount and with very much the same profit percentage... This is most likely my "edge" in action... Hence conclusion: if you have a good system it is not so important how much you stake. What is important is to stay consistent and DO NOT overstake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Not reducing stake will make little difference as long as you have a positive edge, but when it goes negative you will go banckrupt a lot faster. Let's say your stake is 10% of your bank. Reducing the stake after a loss means you can have a long losing streak and still be able to continue. Sure, your bank will reduce in size significantly but that happens with a losing streak whatever staking applied. ( in fact start with 100, bet 10% and lose 10 times and you have 34.86 left ) Not reducing your stake means you only need 1 losing streak of 10 bets and it's all gone. In fact a couple of shorter losing streaks in a row will do the same. It doesn't matter if you only bet 1% of your bank. The risk is the same, just the timescale gets longer. Once your edge flips negative, even if it's temporarily, you go down faster. So not reducing may provide a little more profit but you do pay a price in increased risk. Which brings it back to a matter of choice, as long as you choose the risk as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? I have to say that I agree with Mulkis on this one. I hope this makes any sense: The only way to get something out of a percentage staking plan is to use a ratchet (never decrease stakes when losing). If you don't do that you'll just lose the percentage of your bankroll that you stake and that will end up with almost the same result as a flat stake. Because the percentage stake will circle around the average stake. Bankroll 100 = bet 2 units Bankroll 110 = bet 2,2 units Bankroll 90 = bet 1,8 units If your bankroll reaches 110 and sinks to 90 your average stake is 2 and it doesn't make a lot of difference from just staking 2 all the time. I also agree with Mulkis' last point in his first post : "If your betting strategy has any edge you will survive!" You shouldn't ever do any bets without a positive edge (unless you want to lose money). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? You shouldn't ever do any bets without a positive edge It must be nice to be a fortune teller. You don't know your edge until after you've placed a long series of bets, and even that does not mean the positiveness will continue in future, that is the whole point of having a staking plan and thus managing your bank. Any talk about risk and money management is a moot point when a positive edge exists, the problem is that such edge is never guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Aren't the average odds you take just as important here though? I just think, from a purely personal point of view, that betting 2% of your bank each time on even money shots (which is fairly common when betting on football) is completely pointless. Unless as datapunter says, 'you are a fortune teller' and your strike rate is high, which would put you in the top 1% of punters IMO. You'd probably break even or make about ten quid profit, which isn't worth the time and effort even getting out of bed. Obviously if you're betting a percentage of your bankroll the percentage should never be fixed, and you'd probably need a mathematical genius to work out what amount to put down on each bet. I also think that most betting strategies regarding bankroll are flawed in some way, and there is no easy answer to your query. It all depends on too many variables that are likely to fluctuate wildly because although a lot of punters delude themselves into thinking of sports betting as similar to an investment scheme. It isn't, its gambling and is about a thousand times more riskier. I also think the above is a good point by datapunter because a lot of people seem to state categorically that you will win long term if you have the edge, or value, which is rubbish. Always look for what you deem to be value, but don't expect win long term because very few people make what I would deem to be a healthy living out of gambling/sports betting. Whatever you want to call it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? I just think' date=' from a purely personal point of view, that betting 2% of your bank each time on even money shots (which is fairly common when betting on football) is completely pointless.[/quote'] What would your approach be regarding staking and odds then Jase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iparout Posted September 11, 2012 Author Share Posted September 11, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Aren't the average odds you take just as important here though? I just think, from a purely personal point of view, that betting 2% of your bank each time on even money shots (which is fairly common when betting on football) is completely pointless. Unless as datapunter says, 'you are a fortune teller' and your strike rate is high, which would put you in the top 1% of punters IMO. You'd probably break even or make about ten quid profit, which isn't worth the time and effort even getting out of bed. Obviously if you're betting a percentage of your bankroll the percentage should never be fixed, and you'd probably need a mathematical genius to work out what amount to put down on each bet. I never talked about betting a fixed 2%on each bet. I mentioned betting A MAXIMUM of 2% on each bet, deescalating down to 0.2%, according to how confident you are about the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 What would your approach be regarding staking and odds then Jase? As I think most money management systems are flawed in some way, I would whittle it down to 'never bet what you can't afford to lose' and take less bets. Don't even bet every week if you don't have to. What I've observed though through looking at these threads on money management is that the average odds are never mentioned, and also what you as a punter expect to achieve through betting. What sort of return you expect to see. Your strike rate. Length of time for your "investment" to last etc..... Because to my mind you need all that before you start discussing percentages and bankroll. If you still think you can come up with a mathematical formula that considers all the key aspects mentioned above then please let me know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I never talked about betting a fixed 2%on each bet. I mentioned betting A MAXIMUM of 2% on each bet' date= deescalating down to 0.2%, according to how confident you are about the bet. Sorry I read fixed somewhere but it may not have been you and was more a general comment from me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Personally I think betting on your own confidence levels using a scale of one through ten is hugely flawed anyway because something you select as a ten could end up losing, while something you bet as a one may romp home. These levels are something you set, and as a human, you are prone to error. I don't see how that sort of system can work because your rate of success is based on the future, which isn't written, and how do you know which of your selections are strong and which are weak unless you're saying to yourself that the lower priced selections are strong, and the higher priced selections are weak. In which case how do you know whether the odds offered are true, and offer best value. Some short priced selections may be hugely underpriced. Sorry for the rambling posts. I just think there's other considerations that weren't mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? As I think most money management systems are flawed in some way' date=' I would whittle it down to 'never bet what you can't afford to lose' and take less bets. Don't even bet every week if you don't have to.[/quote'] Completely agree with the 'fewer bets' idea. Regarding staking, I have read that the main reason to limit your stake to a small percentage is to minimise the risk of losing all your money from a bad run. e.g. you have £1,000. If you bet £100 a bet, you could easily have a bad run and find yourself with, say, £500 or less. If you bet £10 a bet (1% of your bank), a similar bad run would still leave you with £950. That's the sort of thing I've read anyway, and it seems to make a lot of sense. I do know that a lot of betting involves discipline, and I think some sort of staking 'discipline' is probably essential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramaker Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Nice thread with lots of solid points. As far as the MOST scientific, mathematical way to grow your bankroll -- KELLY CRITERION is the answer. It's a simple formula based on your ESTIMATED EDGE, the actual odds and your bankroll. Here's the key point: ESTIMATED EDGE. As it's been alluded to by Data Punter, it takes MANY, MANY BETS before you KNOW if you have ANY edge. Once you know you have an edge, then you can start using this formula. Also -- it's much better to bet HALF-KELLY then full kelly in terms of risk management. And I would recommend starting with QUARTER-kelly in the beginning. So to be clear: PHASE 1: Keep it simple by betting a small % of bankroll (0.2% to 2% is a good system to start). PHASE 2: Make enough bets to know your edge. MINIMUM: 500 BETS. PHASE 3: Use the Kelly Criterion where you have an edge. Start with QUARTER-kelly (25% of what's it's recommending) and only go up when your edge is proven out even more over time. ** IMPORTANT**: By keeping a nice spreadsheet, you will notice that you have an edge in certain things and NO EDGE in other things. For an example, you might have an edge in soccer and no edge in rugby. This is critical because you should AVOID betting things where there's no edge. I was making good gains on a few sports and LOSING the gains in others until I ran a spreadsheet and figured out where the "profit leaks" were coming from. Hope this helps! > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? It must be nice to be a fortune teller. You don't know your edge until after you've placed a long series of bets, and even that does not mean the positiveness will continue in future, that is the whole point of having a staking plan and thus managing your bank. Any talk about risk and money management is a moot point when a positive edge exists, the problem is that such edge is never guaranteed. I agree with you. Let me clarify what I meant with that last sentence. In this forum there is a lot of backtesting. It was a positive edge in the backtesting I meant. Even then it's not guaranteed in future bets but it is a good start. I wasn't clear about that and I'm sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? n this forum there is a lot of backtesting. It was a positive edge in the backtesting I meant. Even then it's not guaranteed in future bets but it is a good start. There can be only one response to that... Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stho1978 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Think Jase is right - you need to ask yourself what your long term goal is,including how quickly you want to get there, what odds you're going to get and then stake accordingly but never betting more than you can afford to lose. Also having a limit on what you can lose in the long run. But that's me being boring! So ignoring that fact and wanting to have some excitment, I have a question: Say I have a betting bank of a thousand points, and I'm going to risk 2% (20 points) per bet and I am going to use an incremental system(EG for a bet of odds of 1.01 I'd bet 20 points but a bet of 10.00 I'd bet 1 point) as per iparout's post. Should I look at how many bets I'm going to have over, say, a weekend and spread my 2% over all of them or treat each bet individually? EG This weekend I'm going to bet on 10 football matches. Should I say right 2% of my betting bank (20 points) is going to be spread out over the 10 matches on a incremental system. So at the end of the weekend if no bets have been won my new back would be 980 points. or stake a maximum of 2%(20 points) on each match (so possible 200 hundred points depending on the odds) and each bet would be incremental. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolo Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Re: Money management on sports betting ? Nice thread with lots of solid points. As far as the MOST scientific, mathematical way to grow your bankroll -- KELLY CRITERION is the answer. It's a simple formula based on your ESTIMATED EDGE, the actual odds and your bankroll. Here's the key point: ESTIMATED EDGE. As it's been alluded to by Data Punter, it takes MANY, MANY BETS before you KNOW if you have ANY edge. Once you know you have an edge, then you can start using this formula. Also -- it's much better to bet HALF-KELLY then full kelly in terms of risk management. And I would recommend starting with QUARTER-kelly in the beginning. So to be clear: PHASE 1: Keep it simple by betting a small % of bankroll (0.2% to 2% is a good system to start). PHASE 2: Make enough bets to know your edge. MINIMUM: 500 BETS. PHASE 3: Use the Kelly Criterion where you have an edge. Start with QUARTER-kelly (25% of what's it's recommending) and only go up when your edge is proven out even more over time. ** IMPORTANT**: By keeping a nice spreadsheet, you will notice that you have an edge in certain things and NO EDGE in other things. For an example, you might have an edge in soccer and no edge in rugby. This is critical because you should AVOID betting things where there's no edge. I was making good gains on a few sports and LOSING the gains in others until I ran a spreadsheet and figured out where the "profit leaks" were coming from. Hope this helps! > Great post. The obvious problem with using Kelly is quantifying your edge. I would argue that even 500 bets is probably not a big enough sample to be confident of using it to quantify our edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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