Flat Racing Saturday 25th August

[Lodge]

:ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.00 York - 3pts win Eton Forever @ 9/2 (PP) Posted this before his run his run in the Buckingham Palace:

5.35 Ascot - 2pts win Eton Forever @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) The three at the head of the market here are drawn high or at least middle to high, but I'm not totally sure that's where you want to be on the rain-softened ground here now. It helped to be low in the Britannia and there looks to be sufficient pace on the far side for me to opt for a runner on that part of the track. I'm often wrong with this but I'll go with my gut and if the action is over there, I think I'm on a horse with a fine chance in Eton Forever. He dotted up in the Spring Mile at Doncaster in 2010 when well-treated and although he hasn't won since, he's been running well and this stiff 7f could prove ideal for him now. He was 5th of 28 in the Hunt Cup last season here so clearly handles the track and I think he has sufficient pace to make the 7f a good distance for him. He's gone sufficiently well off this mark to suggest he can win when things go right and he may well have won at Chester last time but for some horrific luck in running. He returned this season with a solid effort in the Lincoln to finish 5th but could only manage 8th of 10 last time out at the Cheshire track. This doesn't tell any of the story, though, as he travelled sweetly hunting up the front few but stumbled on the turn. Once Neil Callan had him balanced again he started to stay on really well between horses when the door slammed shut late on and he had to take a pull on him and ease him home. He would have gone very close that day and runs off the same mark here. Should be race fit for this now, we know he goes well in big fields, the yard are in form and fingers crossed he's on the right side.

Was delighted as he stormed to success - pulling 1 3/4l clear in front and 4 lengths clear on his side. It was a really taking performance as he just kept on going to win off a mark of 103. He's obviously a little bit better than that and any run to just shy of 110 or around that would see him go incredibly close in this race in my opinion. He disappointed back over the same c&d off his revised mark of 109 in July but he just ran flat rather than his mark getting the better of him in my opinion as he didn't travel anywhere near as well. The Roger Varian yard had a bit of a blip last month but are right back in sparkling form now and maybe that will be the catalyst to bring this one back to the form of the Royal meeting. He relishes flat tracks and any rain won't inconvenience him and he's the joint 2nd highest rated runner in the field. The top-rated has been out of form and the other one rated 109 hasn't won over as far as this. The 3yos getting weight don't really interest me so I think Eton Forever has another win in him.

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.30 - York - Monshak @ 11/1 Bet365 With more rain forecast tonight and the ground already looking abit softer today than a few people imagined i'm going to stick to horses proven on this ground. Sir Micheal Stoute's runner Monshak has had 3 starts to date, all of which have been on soft/heavy ground. She ran subsequent Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens to 3L on debut at Yarmouth over 11f. She then went on to win his next 2 starts when upped in trip to 12 and 14f respectively, winning as if she had slightly more in hand on both occasions. Runs off 87, 6lb higher than that latest win which looks fair, especially as she is slightly less exposed than most in this. Has underrated jockey onboard in Graham Lee and no reason why she won't go close in my opinion particularly if the ground gets even softer. First time visor applied also.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.30 York - 2pts win Mysterious Man @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his intended run at Sandown recently:

2.30 Sandown - 3pts win Mysterious Man @ 15/2 (Hills) Very competitive race to get stuck into but I really like the chances of Andrew Balding's runner who got off the mark last time out and should relish the step up to 1m6f. There is some stamina in his pedigree and the way he's been finishing his races in maidens suggest he can improve further for this distance. Plenty of his maiden form is rock solid - 4th to Thomas Chippendale and then 2nd to Estimate (both Royal Ascot winners). He holds New Youmzain on that most recent form and then the step back to 10f wouldn't have been ideal next time out. Was no match for the winner but the race worked out nicely and he kept on well to finish 2nd in the end. The 3rd is an 85 horse, the 4th 88 and the 5th 80 so on that evidence my selection's mark of 83 doesn't look beyond him and he's got off the mark since then. There were a few solid yardsticks in the field when staying on strongly under pressure to forge to a 2 1/4l success at Bath last time out and I just think he's going to enjoy the extra 2f on offer today. His form is rock solid and it's hard to see him not running another big race.

Didn't run in the end but the comments apply again for his run here with the 1m6f trip looking like it'll improve him again having been seeing his races out well over shorter. Although Timeform believe his mark is high, I'm personally not so sure with his form working out nicely and factoring in the anticipated improvement for the distance. As mentioned, winners have come out of his races and that includes his win at Bath last time. The 3rd horse was Mawaqeet (beaten 3 1/4l) who subsequently won a maiden and then was a slightly unfortunate 2nd at Glorious Goodwood off a mark of 87. Like I say, I don't believe 83 is too harsh on Andrew Balding's colt and Estimate backed up her win at Ascot with a subsequent 3rd at Goodwood to get a rating of 110. My selection's 2 3/4l defeat giving 5lbs doesn't look bad now and is another piece of rock solid form. He handles give in the ground so rain won't inconvenience and his draw in stall 7 isn't bad. The yard are working at a 17% strike rate this month from a lot of runners so that's no issue either and I just think he's been overlooked in here.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.45 Goodwood: Betfair Summer Double Second Leg (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (7f) As usual a race of this nature is ultra competitive and many are in with a shout on their best form. Fulbright will have plenty of supporters no doubt with the Mark Johnston connection at this course but he’s a bit worse of at the weights with a few of these and isn’t much value. I do like Primaeval, the trainer was very bullish about his chances last time when the ground went against him and looks a class act at his best. As an alternative shout you could do worse than Arnold Lane, he may have to weave his way through traffic late on but looks reasonably treated to me. Selections: 2pts Primaeval 12/1 Stan James 1pt Arnold Lane 10/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-fanshawe-and-hayley-to-get-primaeval-back-on-the-winning-road-at-goodwood

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3.40 York - 2pts win Tominator @ 16/1 (Bet365) I've got a feeling Reg Hollinshead has had his runner laid out for this race having not run much of a race in two starts this season but I've little doubt that he'll be fully tuned up for this now he's 3lbs lower than when making a reappearance in the Chester Cup (beaten miles) earlier this year. He showed more at Haydock last time but was one-paced without being beaten to within an inch of his life by Tony Culhane and the ground was possibly just on the sharp side. It suggested he could be of interest today as he shaped okay and now he's been rested for this race I think he has a big chance with conditions to suit. Rain would help this winner of the 2011 Northumberland Plate (off 7lbs lower) and the trip will suit if they go a good gallop with a long straight in his favour. They usually go plenty quick enough in these big handicaps so I'm fairly confident he'll have something decent to run at and some rain will just turn it into more of a stamina test which will suit. He was only beaten a length off a mark of 100 at Doncaster last year (winner won again next time out) so this mark is probably not totally beyond him when he has everything go his way. I think we'll comfortably see his best performance this season and fingers crossed he can notch up another big race win.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3.25 Newmarket: Chris Blackwell Memorial Hopeful Stakes (Listed) (6f) Fascinating race with proven listed runners on the downgrade up against some exposed in form handicappers and an improving filly thrown into the mix. I think Scarf will take all the beating here though and won easily last time, the Godolphin team are flying at the moment and now he has found his feet in Britain he could start to improve a lot. Sirius Prospect would be dangerous on some of his form but may need the ground to soften up a touch and maybe Markab is the safer alternative this time. Selections: 3pts Scarf 9/2 Ladbrokes 1pt Markab 6/1 >BetVictor Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-godolphin-s-form-to-continue-with-scarf-in-listed-contest-at-hq

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August UR last time out when stumbled and lost Amy when the gates opened so they have some unfinished business, they were fancied that day back on the 13/08/2012 but these things happen in racing, they run off a nice weight today and from 10 starts the 3yr old gelding has only won 1 race and that being at today's course York. He also has an entry for Ripon on Monday but id guess that wont happen as they must favor this race, and just a point of noting he also has an enty for the Ayr Gold cup on 22nd Sep. Today's race is an Apprentice race so this is Amy's sole ride of the day, any market support would give some confidence, showing around the 8/1 mark at the moment and that price looks pretty fair. York 5:20 - Pea Shooter. E/W bet. N/R

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3.40 York: Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (1m6f) On paper it looks a very competitive Ebor, the markets will tell you it’s a three or four runner race and I think the bookies have it right this year. I can’t see past Camborne, Qahriman and Motivado to be honest, they all seem to be improving at a fast pace and have been laid out for this race for sometime. Despite the weight I do like Camborne at the prices and of the two favourites I’d side with the Cumani horse with his course form. Selections: 2pts Camborne 8/1 >Betfred 1pt Qahriman 6/1 Totesport Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-gosden-and-buick-can-take-the-ebor-with-fast-improving-camborne

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Betfred Ebor (Handicap) – York, Saturday 25th August In more recent seasons it has been five-year-olds which have had the strongest record, winning the Betfred Ebor in six of the last ten seasons in addition to their fair share of placed efforts. Their record looks all the better when you consider that four-year-olds have been responsible for virtually twice the amount of runners but have only won the race twice, although they have also had their fair share of finishers in the frame. Even so, their record still leaves a bit to be desired. Last year’s surprise winner Moyenne Corniche became just the second horse aged over five to win the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon in 1979. With that statistic in mind, it is likely to be a while before another six-year-old or over wins, so the quartet in today’s field can be opposed. Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only one of the last eleven winners (excluding the 2008 renewal run at Newbury) scoring from a single figure berth. With victory in the Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide; those right on the outside have a superb recent record with seven of the last eleven winners having been drawn no lower than 16. The weights in the Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only three of the last 24 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st1lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and although this statistic only affects a handful of today’s runners, their chances must be taken with a pinch of salt. Last year’s 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a couple of well-established trends, notably becoming only the second horse in 17 years to win the Ebor having not achieved a top two finish on either of their last two starts. He, along with the 2001 victor Mediterranean, are also the only winners in recent times not to have won a race of any nature during the current season. Five of the last ten winners had achieved a top four finish last time out and it is those contenders that we should be focusing our attentions on. Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been five winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price. CONCLUSION Only two of the twenty strong field score well on the three positive trends and do not fall down on any negatives, these being Icon Dream and the French-trained HAMMERFEST. The selection is the latter, who has been a model of consistency this term, including when he was second in a competitive 12f handicap at Royal Ascot. He stays further than this and has an excellent chance of adding to his trainer’s fine record in this country. Icon Dream’s only start this season was when he was third in the Northumberland Plate, so he can be forgiven the fact that he has failed to finish in the first two on either of his last two starts. A strongly run 14f should be right up his street and he looks a tremendous each-way bet. Others to consider include Sense of Purpose, who represents the Dermot Weld stable which has won with their other two runners the festival so far. She has shown good form in Group 3 and Listed company and hinted at a return to form on her most recent start. Willing Foe is the final horse on the shortlist and represents the powerful Godolphin stable. He ended last year’s campaign with a terrific effort in defeat behind Zuider Zee in the November Handicap, before making an encouraging reappearance at Ascot in July. He is lightly raced and remains open to improvement, making him an intriguing prospect.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 14.45 Goodwood: Justonefortheroad @ 33/1 Bet365 For some reasons I feel pretty strong about the chance of Justonefortheroad in this race. He is certainly too big a price in my mind as it looks that conditions developing in his favour at the moment with more rain expected ad Goodwood tomorrow and the ground already described as good at the moment. More rain can be only beneficial for my selection anyway though he has also form on faster ground nonetheless. Justonefortheroad won this year already two years, one in April at Musselburgh off a 1lb lower mark than the current one. He was pretty impressive that day as he missed the break yet he won comfortably. He confirmed this performance with another great effort. This time in a strong class 3 conditions race where he wasn't really well in regarding the weights actually. But he won it with a great late finish. He showed another decent performance right after that in a Listed Handicap, finishing sixth to Fury, though only 3¾ lengths beaten. Three subsequent poor performances after that brought him down to a handy handicap mark again now and with exciting young 7lb claimer Laura Barry booked for the ride Justonefortheroad could be very well handicapped and therefore a big player in this race from a good draw. Richard Fahey looks to be more than happy to provide young Laura Barry with some good rides as this combo relishes a 20% strike rate so far and Barry won a big Handicap at York today for Fahey on a 33/1 chance. 15.20 Goodwood: Thistle Bird @ 12/1 Paddy Power Can't understand the price for Thistle Bird. She won two Listed races in a row, was particularly impressive at Ascot lto and is still lightly raced. She can still improve further and may also have a tactical advantage in this small field as she can race prominently what could be important here where a lack of pace might emerge as there is no confirmed front runner in the field. I think Thistle Bird slips a bit under the radar anyway. Trumped Major and Chachamaidee are certainly proven Group class but also fairly exposed while Aljamaaheer is simply too short in the betting marked in my mind. 15.40 York: Sense Of Purpose @ 20/1 Boylesports Dermot Weld was pretty bullish about the chance of Sense Of Purpose in the Ebor during the week. Rightly so in my mind. According to Weld is the mare in wonderful form and I think he wouldn't bring her over here if that wouldn't be the case indeed. The draw is a worry for her but probably to compensate with a good start and as she's usually very positive ridden I think that shouldn't cause too much trouble anyway. She is a Group 3 winning mare and raced in better races all the time in the last 12 month and has there some very fine forms to offer. She finished 2nd to the super tough multiple Group winning mare Banimpire and she won a Listed and Group 3 race at Leopardstown last year. She had only two starts this year so far and while she was well beaten on her seasonal reappearance she showed a fantastic performance in a strong listed race at Roscommon lto when she was just narrowly beaten in an exciting four horse finish. Furthermore she won two from three over the Ebor distance and with talented apprentice Leigh Roche on board who takes off valuable 5lb I feel Sense Of Purpose could run a big race. 19.45 Windsor: Mons Calpe @ 10/1 Bet365 Mons Calpe still without one single good performance this year. He was well beaten in all four starts so far. He slipped down to a very tempting mark in consequence though as he won off an 8lb higher mark here at Windsor in similar conditions last year. He's actually down to a career lowest mark and all his four wins came of higher marks obviously. The fast ground will be in his favour as three of his four turf wins came on ground described as good to firm. Neill Callan is booked for the ride who has a good strike rate in the last two years for trainer P F I Cole, which can be only a bonus for Monse Calpe's chance. This race here is particularly poor, main danger is obviously Highland Duke who is only 4lb up for a convincing win lto and could be hard to beat if the step up in trip brings out further improvement. If not though then Mons Calpe should be very much up there to win this.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Allegedly it's pouring down in York and has been for the last 45 minutes or so.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2:30 York: Biographer 1pt win 10/1 Bet Victor Biographer could go well here stepping up to a mile and six for the first time. This trip looks ideal and this lightly raced colt could improve again. His last two runs read well with the form having a solid look about it. David Lanigan has his string in decent form and his stable star Main Sequence ran well earlier at the meeting. 3:25 Newmarket: Hitchens 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 Hitchens appears to be up against it with his Group penalty however he has had a rest since his exploits at Meydan and freshened up. He ran well at Chester last time and a reproduction of that effort will see him go close here. Martin Dwyer does not often ride for the yard but does well on the few occasions he has. 3:40 York: Sense of Purpose 1pt e/w 20/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1234) & Hammerfest 1pt win 10/1 Bet Victor Sense of Purpose for Dermot Weld catches the eye here with Leigh Roche taking off a handy five pounds. Sense of Purpose was at one point considered for the Melbourne Cup. She picked up an injury so that plan was shelved, however with a tounge tie on today, this Group performer could go well at a big price. Hammerfest ran well at Royal Ascot and lines up here off just a three pound higher mark. The extra distance today should be in his favour as should a little ease in the ground. John Hammond rarely brings a horse over these days, so presumably he feels Hammerfest has a good chance here.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.00 York: Betfred City Of York Stakes (Listed) (7f) Plenty of doubts about the main contenders here and I’m going against the top three in the market in favour of last years winner Doncaster Rover. He hasn’t been running too badly and get off the mark for his new trainer at the first time of asking. As an alternative I’m keen on Bannock at the prices now he has been dropped back in trip, his early speed should get him into pole position and will be hard to peg back on this course. Selections: 2pts Doncaster Rover 6/1 >Bet365 1pt Bannock 10/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-doncaster-rover-can-repeat-last-years-triumph-in-york-opener-for-fahey

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August *Scarlet Rocks - Redcar 8:00* Dropped 5 pounds since it's last handicap run two starts back from 60 to 55, and was running off 85 in 2010, so is now 30 pounds lower than then. Encouragement last time out i felt when 4th at Southwell and the extra furlong should suit as it often can get slowly away. Shane B Kelly takes off 5 pounds, so runs off an extremely leniant mark. Ron Barr's only runner today and looks overpriced here. *0.5 Points e/w @ 20/1 Skybet*

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 2.30 YORK CARDINAL WALTER 3pts win @ 6/1 bog (Boylesports and William Hill) High quality 3yo colt still very lightly raced and open to plenty of improvements. Trained by David Simcock for Mrs Fitri Hay this son of Cape Cross (very good pedigree and costed 160,000€ at Goffs Sep '10) Cardinal Walter ran only once as a 2yo (4th of 12 at Redcar over 7f in November 2011) but improved race after race this season: 3rd of 15 on his 3yo debut at Newmarket in May (1m2f, maiden), won with a strong finish another maiden but over 1m4f at Haydock (good to soft) in June and after a poor run on his handicap debut at York over 1m4f in July the colt ran a fantastic race imho last time out (1st of August) at Goodwood to finish 3rd of 16 in a high quality handicap for 3yos over 1m4f (good ground) off a mark of 84. He met more than one trouble and would have finished surely second with a clear trip and way closer to the winner that was Sir Graham Wade (2.25L ahead of him) and the Mark Johnston-trained colt re-opposes Cardinal Walter on a 14lb worse terms today following another win and a close third last time out (to today's favourite and top weight Gospel Choir). The mixed lines between them enhanced my idea that Cardinal Walter is the best handicapped horse in this race and, as many of them, should appreciate this step up in trip and gets Jamie Spencer back in his saddle who wasn't riding him for that York flop. Nice weight, best possible jockey (knows him very well and operates at 20% when riding for Simcock), no worries for the ground (won on good to soft) and David Simcock-trained horses flying high at the moment (13-58 22% in August which has been by far his best ever month since started training and in the last 7 days Simcock saddled a Grade 1 winner at Arlington (USA) and a nice winner here at Ebor meeting (Spencer on board) where he has had just 2 runners so far.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3.05 York SADDLER'S ROCK 4pts win @ 7/4 bog (William Hill) This high quality Group 2 for stayers seems to be a match between Saddler's Rock and Cavalryman. The Irish trained 4yo had shown his class destroying a good field in a Group 2 over 2m2f at Doncaster in September (Opinion Poll second but beaten 4.5L even if Saddler's Rock was then receiving a very useful weight per age allowance being a 3yo) and progressed as expected this season: 2nd on his reappearance at Leopardstown after a long break and on unfavourable very testing ground and a very close third at Royal Ascot in the Gold Cup (3/4L behind Colour Vision) on good to soft. Confirmed his improvements winning pretty easily (more than the official margin suggests) the Goodwood Cup (Group 2 over 2m on good ground) 23 days ago (idled once in front) and imho the John Oxx-trained 4yo is the horse to beat here. Cavalryman didn't look particularly well last year (tried always in top races anyway) but dropped in class showed he retains plenty of skills at the age of 6 and won in very good style his last two starts, both Listed over 1m6f here at York in May and over 2m at Sandown 7 weeks ago. Surely a good chance for Godolphin but Saddler's Rock has been showing something better at the top level already and is surely more open to improvements (4yo that will have just his 10th career start today vs more experienced but way more exposed 6yo). Short price but I can't really see beyond these two and Saddler's Rock at the moment is a class ahead of Cavalryman in my opinion so the 7/4 doesn't sound bad at all. Favourites have won this race in 4 of the last 5 seasons and Lanfranco Dettori won 3 of the last 5 editions while Johnny Murtagh scored with an O'Brien-trained strong favourite in 2007).

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3.40 York MOTIVADO 5pts @ 5/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) The recent rain and the strong support for Qahriman made the odds of this 4yo trained by Sir Mark Prescott very interesting again and I'm going with full confidence here. Motivado had landed two good handicaps last year (off 77 on his debut in May over 1m2f and botled up off 87 in September at Haydock over 1m6f) so he had already started his 4yo career with a loft reputation but we had to wait a couple of races before he finally showed his best skills and did it in impressive style bolting up (thanks to one terrific turn of foot just inside the final furlong won by 5L) in a 14-runner field a class 2 handicap over 1m6f at Goodwood (1m6f, good ground) 3 weeks ago. He failed on both his starts here at York but those came in a wrong moment and now the horse is ready to take this very rich and prestigious prize before going up to Group races. The late rain isn't welcome but he can handle a bit of juice in the ground and imho he is a Group horse racing in a handicap off 97 (he's due to go up another 6lb so is already well ahead of the handicapper at the moment) which gives him just 8st 12lb and will be hard to beat if everything goes as planned (been aimed at this race for a while). Surely Qahriman is the main danger with the Luca Cumani's stable on fire and Kieren Fallon riding at his best of late. The 4yo just got in as a reserve and has got a very good mark of 96 which should be within his skills considering normal improvements after his last easy success 10 weeks ago over today's C&D but I still rate him a class below Motivado even if the stable form, the rain and his proven ability over C&D are surely very important things to consider and that's why Motivado is at 5/1 and not 3/1 (as it would have been imho without Qahriman and the recent rain). Too good a price to be missed and I'm going full stake because I'm fully confident there will be no issue with track, I rate him way better than Qahriman (well the BHA figures prove that for what we've seen so far) and hopefully there won't be too much rain in the following hours so that the ground stays good/good to soft that won't be a problem for Motivado for sure (even if he surely goes better on a quicker ground given his terrific turn of foot).

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 4.15 York HOYAM 4pts win @ 3/1 bog (Victor Chandler and many more) For this edition of the Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed race for 2yo voer 5f) we have a small field now reduced to only 7 runners and just 3 of them seem able to land this valuable prize. My selection is the more experienced of them all and on her 2nd of 27 in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot (very strong finish) she has to be hard to beat unless Cosmic Chatter and Fire Eyes prove to be better of course. My selection is already rated 98 but could be a touch better than that imho (back in trip and on a more favourable ground) and her last third in a Group 3 over 6f at Ascot isn't a bad piece of form but it was on firm ground and a bit of juice in the ground (it was good/good to soft at Royal Ascot even if she wouldn't want it too soft) and the drop back to 5f will surely be more than welcome today. The two boys have to overcome the 5lb allowance per sex which could prove to be too much at this stage of their careers because if Hoyam performs at her best she can surely be a 100 rated sprinter and they should be able to perform as 105+ rated colts to win this and that's something I doubt given Fire Eyes won in very good style and is highly regarded (costed 300,000gns few weeks ago) but has still plenty to prove and beat very little on his debut while Cosmic Chatter won twice of his 3 starts to date and even if his flop at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle came in an unlucky day (got a bit injured going into the stalls) he could face another tough task with the expected very big crowd for today's meeting and the noise and buzz related with it that could affect the Highclere-owned gelding. It's a close match but at current prices the value is surely on my side. Fillies won 3 of the last 8 editions (last year's winner My Propeller the last of them).

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August A devilishly tough handicap to solve and one in which you can back any number of runners and still not get a return. Firstly, HARRISON'S CAVE (15:40) can be excused a poor effort in a competitive Irish 1m4f handicap as it came only 6 days after he’d had a hard race at Royal Ascot and if back to that sort of form shown at the Berkshire course today, then he has a big chance at a trip he stays. A strike rate of 2/18 means he’s not one of the stable stars by any stretch of the imagination but scored both of his victories last season, at 1m2f and 1m5f. He stays much further though, with a fair effort in the Chester Cup over 2m5f, when the draw was against him and the hold-up tactics just didn’t pay off. As mentioned earlier, his Royal Ascot effort was very creditable and a replication of that effort today would see him bang there. Although that was over 1m4f, he travelled so well and stayed on really nicely into 3^rd, not getting the best of passages through by any stretch. He subsequently bombed out at the Curragh but that came too soon no doubt and he hasn’t been seen since, so he should be definitely over his exertions. Harrison Cave looked to be much better than a 94 rated animal at Ascot and although he’s running over 2f further today than on that occasion, I think the likely strong pace and softer conditions will mean he can travel through the race really comfortably before hopefully having enough in the latter part of the contest. He’s rated 96 but has shaped on occasions like an animal with the potential for a three figure handicap mark and although he’ll need to be to win here, the fact is that this 1m6f trip looks to be perfect for him on a few pieces of evidence, he’s adaptable regarding the ground and is in perfect hands of Aidan O’Brien. This race has likely been the target since the poor showing at the Curragh and he should be no bigger than a price of around 12/1 in this race, so at the current prices he’s a little bit of value. Also, BLUE BAJAN (15:40) looks to be regressing and for a ten year old, he has every right to do so. That being said, he’s really excelled as he’s got older and was putting in some very decent performances at the start of this season, efforts which would be almost good enough to win this contest. Although his form faded a bit subsequently, he returned to form on his latest start over this C&D and wouldn’t have to improve much to be in the shake-up, with the race more likely to be run in a more suitable fashion than last time out. He’s very capable of running 10lbs better than his current mark on a going day, so is worth a try at these inflated odds. A winner of the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last year and runner-up in the Yorkshire Cup over this C&D, he held his own at Group level on a couple more occasions before struggling in the Lonsdale and the Doncaster Cup and David O’Meara quite rightly brought his season to a halt. You’d expect that his form wouldn’t be at the same level this time around and to an extent you’d be right, as he was well beaten in the Henry II this time around but his form before this in 2012, in a Listed race at Nottingham and over too sharp a trip in a Newmarket Group 2 was far from bad form, and I think showed that most of his ability remained intact. After some poor performances at York and Sandown in Group Company, he was entitled to fall down the weights but ran a bold race last time returned to handicap races off a mark of 100. That was when 4.5 lengths behind Mount Athos who has gone on to win a Group 3 and it was definitely a step back in the right direction, especially considering he wasn’t given a very hard time of it, the race not being run at a strong pace (which he’d prefer over this sort of trip) and his form immediately before it hadn’t been too promising. It’s likely that he’s been prepared with this race in mind subsequently and dropped a further 2lbs in the weights; he looks quite appealing from that perspective. Although he fulfils none of the trends and the winner is usually a more unexposed type, the fact is that Blue Bajan is quite well-handicapped on even this season’s best form, was back to something like a creditable showing last time out and in a race that is likely to be strongly run, he has stamina, guts and ground adaptability all in his locker. He’s definitely not worthy of these big odds. Bets 15:40 York – Harrison's Cave; 1pt @ 16/1 Betfred, William Hill (bog) 15:40 York – Blue Bajan; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August

2.30 YORK CARDINAL WALTER 3pts win @ 6/1 bog (Boylesports and William Hill) High quality 3yo colt still very lightly raced and open to plenty of improvements. Trained by David Simcock for Mrs Fitri Hay this son of Cape Cross (very good pedigree and costed 160,000€ at Goffs Sep '10) Cardinal Walter ran only once as a 2yo (4th of 12 at Redcar over 7f in November 2011) but improved race after race this season: 3rd of 15 on his 3yo debut at Newmarket in May (1m2f, maiden), won with a strong finish another maiden but over 1m4f at Haydock (good to soft) in June and after a poor run on his handicap debut at York over 1m4f in July the colt ran a fantastic race imho last time out (1st of August) at Goodwood to finish 3rd of 16 in a high quality handicap for 3yos over 1m4f (good ground) off a mark of 84. He met more than one trouble and would have finished surely second with a clear trip and way closer to the winner that was Sir Graham Wade (2.25L ahead of him) and the Mark Johnston-trained colt re-opposes Cardinal Walter on a 14lb worse terms today following another win and a close third last time out (to today's favourite and top weight Gospel Choir). The mixed lines between them enhanced my idea that Cardinal Walter is the best handicapped horse in this race and, as many of them, should appreciate this step up in trip and gets Jamie Spencer back in his saddle who wasn't riding him for that York flop. Nice weight, best possible jockey (knows him very well and operates at 20% when riding for Simcock), no worries for the ground (won on good to soft) and David Simcock-trained horses flying high at the moment (13-58 22% in August which has been by far his best ever month since started training and in the last 7 days Simcock saddled a Grade 1 winner at Arlington (USA) and a nice winner here at Ebor meeting (Spencer on board) where he has had just 2 runners so far.

I would not rule out her other runner in the race, she has two. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/horse/585072/beyond-conceit

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 4.50 York TOP NOTCH TONTO 2pts EW @ 20/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) (place terms 1-3 1/4) My bet of the day and I even got a slightly better price (22/1 was still available a couple of minutes ago). Top Notch Tonto is the top weight of this interesting nursery. The 2yo gelding trained by Ian McInnes showed plenty of skills since his first race finishing 4th of 11 in a maiden over 5f (good to soft) at Beverley (7 May) 2.5L behind the winner Indian Jade who won again on his next start and went on to finish 8th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot and was 6th of 19 in the big sale race here 2 days ago (race won by his stablemate Hototo) and is rated 92. Top Notch Tonto shaped very well with a strong finish after he was kept towards the back of the group and was never nearer at the finish just 1/2L behind the third Faithfilly who was getting a 5lb allowance being a filly and the Ed Walker trained filly won her next start at that trip (5f) and has finished 2nd and 1st in her last two starts at Listed level in France getting a rating of 100 at the moment. Not a bad start at all for a colt that costed 3,000€ and represents a small stable not famous for first-time-out 2yo winners and that's why he was at 100/1 that day. Top Notch Tonto confirmed that early promises winning in good style his second start (again a 5f maiden at Beverley 8 days after his debut). He did in style having been ridden to lead just inside the final furlong and keeping on very well in the last 1/2f. He reversed the form with Fly Fisher who had finished second on his debut and was just 4th 3L behind him this time and among the 12 horses he beat that day there were a couple of interesting prospects such as Fraserburgh a 2yo colt trained by Mark Johnston for Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Matkoum who finished second beaten only a neck my 106-rated and subsequent Listed winner Morawij on his next start. Back to my selection McInnes kept him busy again over the same C&D (Beverley 5f) in a rich conditions stakes won in impressive style by Bungle Inthejungle, Group 3 winner at Goodwood 3 weeks ago and 5th in the Phoenix (Group 1) at the Curragh on his last start (RPR 108). Top Notch Tonto didn't like that very fast 5f (firm ground) and was badly outpaced in the first part of the race but shaped well in the final furlong and finished 3rd far from the winner but ahead of Ask The Guru a Ralph Beckett-trained colt who has finished second on his next/last three starts and is now rated 95. Reading the result of that small race (5 runners) on paper doesn't really give any idea about the performance of my selection because he was able to perform a really eye-catching effort after he had lost miles at the start and was totally outpaced on such a fast ground in the first couple of furlongs. McInnes surely realized how good was that performance and sent him to Royal Ascot for the Windsor Castle (Listed over 5f won by Hototo). Top Notch Tonto finished just 12th of 23 but once again that wasn't a bad performance because it was a very tough ask for him over 5f at Listed level in such a big field and he lost again a lot of gorund at the start and was soon pushed along but recovered well and finished just 1/2L behind Cosmic Chatter, who is the current favourite of the previous race here at York (a Listed over 5f) and is already rated 100 after his last impressive win. So this nice gelding performed with plenty of promises in all his first 4 career starts over 5f and last time out was finally upped in distance over 6f contesting a conditions stakes of high quality at Pontefract (2nd of July). Top Notch Tonto was the extreme outsider of the race but ran very well once again. As usual he had a bad start and was soon pushed along but made a very good headway over 2f out and stayed on strongly inside the final furlong to finish 3rd but just a short head behind the second Royal Rascal who was 3/4L behind the winner Euxton Hall. The filly Royal Rascal was getting 5lb by my selection that day and she has bolted up on her next start when making her handicap debut over 6f here at York off 78, ran very well in a big field handicap at Newmarket when 5th of 19 off 87 and has finished 3rd in the Lowther here at York two days ago (Group 2 where she finished just 2L behind the winner Rosdhu Queen). The Richard Fahey-trained Euxton Hall didn't win since but finished 4th, 5th and 6th in Listed and Group 2 races on his next/last three starts (latest when just 2.5L behind the winner Blaine in yesterday's Gimcrack here at York). So my selection ran a cracker to finish just behind two top-class horses of this generation. Top Notch Tonto is still very well handicapped on his current mark of 89 given the recent boosts received by the races he has been contested in this season and he has been crying out for this step up in trip (first time over 7f today). He is the top weight of the race but Dale Swift, who is a good and experienced claimer (84 wins in the last 3 seasons and 3 already for Ian McInnes), gets 3lb off his back which will surely help. There are a couple of interesting contenders here but the main dangers are representing top yards and their prices are way too short imho while we get a very juicy 20/1 for a horse which showed already plenty of speed and is open to plenty of improvements now stepped up to this trip and making his nursery debut. It could be one of the biggest wins of his career for trainer Ian McInnes who trains in Eastern Yorkshire so not far from York. If this horse would have been trained by a big name it would be priced in single digit, I have no doubt about that. Strong confidence.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August

I would not rule out her other runner in the race, she has two. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/horse/585072/beyond-conceit

Beyond Conceit is one of the extreme outsiders of this race and represents a stable with a very bad record at York (3-71, 4%, -49.25 lsp in the last 5 seasons) and a terrible form (0-7 in August, 1-11 in July, 1-16 in June and no winner in May, April, March, February, January, December and November). This son of Galileo won a decent Maiden over 1m2f on heavy ground at Haydock last October and was second on his handicap/3yo debut at Doncaster (again over 1m2f on heavy ground racing off 80). Third and second but soundly beaten on his next/last two starts when upped in distance (1m4f and 1m7f) it seems to me way more exposed and limited than the other runner of Mrs Fitri Hay and Jamie Spencer, who rode him on 5 occasions, chooses my selection. His chances are enhanced by the recent rain for sure but off 88 back in handicap company I can't see him winning this today. Just my opinion of course.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 15.40 York: Royal Diamond @ 25/1 Bet365 My original selection for the Ebor is a non-runner now but I'd like to have a bet in this race and there is another Irish runner who looks interesting : Royal Diamond. He really improved this year after he landed a good Handicap at Leopardstown in April from a lowly mark off 80 in some style. He went up by 12lb in the mark for that success but proved his well-being with another cracking effort in a big Curragh Handicap when he led the field with an almost suicidal pace, yet he looked 1f out the likely winner. He had to pay for his massive effort in the final couple of yards though when fast finishing Midnight Soprano caught him on the line. This form works out really well as the winner went on to win a Listed race and finished 2nd in a Group 3 subsequently. The fourth placed horse Backbench Blues also won a Listed race and finished 2nd in another Listed race. Royal Diamond himself finished a good third in a strong Handicap at Down Royal on heavy going after that. He shouldn't have a problem with the going at York either way. If there is further rain he wouldn't mind it, if it stays good he'll be more than fine with that too. A career highest is required but he has optimal conditions as he can attack from draw two and should be able to get his favoured prominent position or even could take the lead. 19.15 Windsor: Attenborough @ 4/1 Bet365 Lightly raced 3yo gelding who caught my eye recently when finishing 3rd at Nottingham. He was a long way beaten as Gala Casino Star really romped home that day but Attenborough missed the break completely and had use valuable energy to cut back the lost ground. He travelled then beatifully through the race, was one of the last on the bridle 3f out but didn't have enough to give to challenge the eventual winner, yet he ran on well I thought. He's down one pound in the mark now and steps down in trip back to 1m what shouldn't be an issue I suppose. This here today will be only his fifth start and there might be still some improvement left and his current mark not really reflecting his ability. Buick booked for the ride is a little bonus as well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August 3:40 York: Alkimos 1pt win 28/1 Bet365 Now that Sense of Purpose is a non runner taking a bit of a flyer with Alkimos. He is by dual Derby winner High Chaparral so there is a decent chance this step up will suit. He gets cheek pieces for the first time too. Not had a lot of luck in his past couple of races. If it all comes together he could outrun his price.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Runs off a feather weight of 7-13 and there has been some money kicking about for this M.Easterby trained 2yr old gelding, 5 runs no wins but does have two placed efforts at today's track 'York' and sole ride for jockey D.Fox. York 4:50 Old Man Clegg. E/w Bet. showing 14/1

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August York 3.05pm I feel the recent rain could go against Saddler's Rock and form comments several times of 'staying on' for High Jinx suggest that one might benefit from a step up in trip. Form with Mount Athos reads well now and Motivado also franked form too. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-high-jinx-could-improve-for-step-up-in-trip-as-ground-goes-against-the-favourite Selection: 2pts WIN – High Jinx 12-1 BetVictor (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Goodwood 4.30pm Harris Tweed might get the run of the race out in front here but I'm willing to take a small risk on Alandi now it is back over a staying trip and feel if it is fit enough it might spring a surprise. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-alandi-could-roll-back-the-years-over-favoured-staying-trip Selection: 1pt WIN – Alandi 14-1 Bet365 (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Goodwood 3.20pm Trumpet Major is better at the weights now with Aljamaaheer but that one did look unlucky in running last time out when trapped for room. Hard to see past these 2 and 3 year olds have a good record in this race. Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-aljamaaheer-can-reverse-form-with-trumpet-major-with-a-clearer-passage Selection: 2pts WIN – Aljamaaheer 9-4 Betfred (BOG)

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August TIMES UP 3.05 York. 1 point win. William Buick riding well and the trip, ground & track isn't of any concerns. Needs to find a few pound with the favourite, but a decent horse who would be capable of exploiting any chinks in the favourite's armoury. Should run a big race today. 14/1 Bet365 BOG