Jump Racing ~ Wed 1st August

[Edberg]

5.25 Galway Galway Plate, handicap chase, grade A, €120,400 to the winner BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN 5pts @ 6/1 bog (Victor Chandler) Feature race of the day at the Galway Festival and most important and rich chase of the summer in UK and Ireland. I'm gonna support full stake Blackstairmountain here. The horse is at the top of his form and has been aimed at this race all the summer. He won a preparation race on the flat at Bellewstown (1m4f, heavy) in impressive style and his previous four starts were all in Grade 1s, second last time out at Punchestown over 2m on heavy ground, 5th in the Arkle of the Cheltenham Festival (good) won by Sprinter Sacre and 5th in the Arkle of the Leopardstown Festival in January won by Flemenstar (soft/heavy), the best two novice chasers in Europe imho. To win such a big handicap off a mark of 147 is never easy but Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh surely know what how to do it. Stable has been in great form this summer and Willie Mullins saddled last year's winner Blazing Tempo for the same owner (Ricci) and also in that case it was sent off favourite. All the main dangers have big question marks. Last year's second Wise Old Owl has never run since that defeat, races here off a 10lb higher mark and shouldn't appreciate the testing conditions (here in Galway it's still raining at the moment and if it keeps raining it's gonna be more on the heavy side than on the predicted soft), Whodoyouthink also doesn't like the ground too soft and his stablemate Follow The Plan needs a super perfomance to win this off 160 giving so much weight to all the other runners, Carlito Brigante started his chasing career two runs ago and it would be a huge effort to win this kind of race third time out over fences off a mark of 141 and surely doesn't like it too soft either, Out Now is back after a 4-month break and is 7lb higher than last time out, didnt win in his last 4 starts but is probably the main danger as the ground shouldn't be a problem and trainer and jockey combination sounds very dangerous, Daffern Seal won over C&D and has run just 5 times in his career, represents the historical leading trainer of the Galway Festival but didn't jump too well on his previous two outs, is back after a 5-month break and shouldn't appreciate too much the testing ground, Casey Top won last time out and has been aimed at this race since but is another that shouldn't appreciate the ground. Very high confidence (full stake already placed first bets 4 weeks ago when the first odds came out with Blackstairmountain available at 10s) and fingers crossed that everything goes right.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Wed 1st August 5.25 Galway: The Tote Galway Plate Handicap Chase (Grade A) (2m6f) Very competitive contest as you would expect and you have to respect the favourite Blackstairmountain on these terms but he wont be much value with Ruby Walsh in the saddle for Willie Mullins. I’ll take two against the field and like the promising Daffern Seal who is a course and distance winner and ran a blinder at Cheltenham last season. Cross Appeal was fancied to run well in the Irish National and maybe this trip will be more to his liking and he’s an each way alternative at a fair price. Selections: 2pts Daffern Seal 11/ 1 Paddy Power 1pt EW Cross Appeal 16/1 Bet365 (first 5) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/galway-betting-dermot-weld-to-land-galway-plate-with-promising-daffern-seal