Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July

[Aidymac]

*Star Date - Carlisle 3:40* Should be well capable of winning off this mark of 82. Showed a lot of promise at Ripon in May when it scooted up on soft going, and tomorrow will be soft also. Was 4th at Newmarket last time out, but that was a Class 3 race and drops in grade here to Class 4. Luke Morris rides again, he is a very talented jockey. This is Gerard Butler's only runner tomorrow and he has a very good record at Carlisle, he doesn't often send a horse here, 15 runners, 4 winners, profit of +£9.25 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 6/1 Bet365 BOG*

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July 15.50 - Pontefract - Rugged Cross @ 11/4 >paddypower Not the biggest of prices but i feel this one is likely to go very close. Won a good maiden at York on 2nd career start last year, and made another step forward on seasonal return at Newmarket when 3rd only 1L behind John Gosden's Thought Worthy. Next run was in the derby and found the opposition abit hot that day and maybe the trip slightly too far. Dropped down to 8f today (first attempt at the trip), gets the 3yo weight allowance from most of the field and most importantly is still open to more improvement than many in this field. Yard in good form and have had 3 winners from 3 runners at the course in 2012.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Carlisle 340 - Star Date 3/1 & Bright Applause 11/1 BetVictor Both of these have achieved TS figures in excess of their current handicap mark and while I feel Star Date has the possibility of more progression, the reliability of Bright Applause's figure looks a little more solid and may be a solid EW chance should the price drift a little further. Bright Applause has also run well in this class on very soft ground LTO which again gives him a small edge over Star Date.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July 3.40 Carlisle - 3pts win Dark Dune @ 6/1 (Betvictor) I feel that Tim Easterby's runner is a bit overpriced here given the fact he's very much in form and conditions today should suit. All of his wins have come on a sound surface which made his effort on soft last time out even more encouraging and although there is some give in the ground today, it's unlikely to be particularly soft so I'm not concerned about there. He won a four-runner race at Pontefract off 7lbs lower than today's mark before running okay without having his conditions in the Cumberland Plate here when sent off at 40/1. He finished in midfield but wasn't disgraced and the fact he was only beaten by a head last time out, a 1lb higher mark shouldn't see him far away today. He travelled supremely well when looking sure to come and grab the winner but didn't find quite as much as expected over 1m6f on soft ground. That was perhaps a little too taxing than ideal and the return to this trip on better ground should be a positive. Got sufficient speed for it to not concern and looks likely to run another big race.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Pontefract 3.50pm I can see this contest being won by either Rugged Cross or Set The Trend but feel the former is priced on potential. Possibly didn't stay 12f and might not have liked Epsom, ran well behind Noble Mission/Thought Worthy. Set The Trend has now blown away the cobwebs and looked to need the run just 8 days ago, feel it has a big chance here for in form O'Meara. Selections: 2pts WIN – Set The Trend 4-1 Bet365 (BOG) Full race preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pontefract-betting-set-the-trend-should-go-close-in-listed-contest

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Pontefract 320 - Circle Of Angels - 7/2 Bet365 Looks a progressive handicapper and won really well LTO coming from last to first to steal victory on the line. The form behind that run looks solid and it was backed up with a quick TS which still makes her well handicapped off her current mark. The track should suit her running style and the trip, going & class are all fine.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July 2.50 Pontefract - 2pts win Singzak @ 16/1 (Bet365) This isn't a particularly good race and with Michael Easterby's runner making steady progression in two runs this season, he might just be ready to do himself justice now on his third run of the season. He hasn't shown much on two starts so far - beating 2 horses home on aggregate - but wasn't beaten as far at Doncaster last time when ridden prominently over a trip that probably just stretches him (1m5f). His best efforts have come over shorter and has run well here before. 1m4f is ideal and he's also a horse who seems to relish quick ground (didn't get it on first run back). He's down to a good mark now and hopefully will have fitness on his side now. Horses usually need to be near the front at Pontefract turning in and this one looks sure to be up there. That's another positive and I'm hopeful he'll run better today.

[LowGradeFlat]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Hello everybody, Newbie here. I've made the changeover from punting threads on a football forum to this. Hopefully I can give my fair share of winners and no doubt take a few too. I tend to bet mainly on the low grade flat which is probably rare but hopefully adds a new view and I must apologize in advance for the grammar but here goes...... I'm backing 2 today. GOTTCHER 5:20 PONTY 13/2 E/W. Jamie spencer has been on 10 for barron this year winning on 4 putting barron top of the pack when it comes to the lesser trainers supplying him with winners after his main 3 of simcock, bell and williams. The booking today is interesting as spencer has 2 rides for his main source ian williams, his last race is 4:20 and he hangs on to get on gottcher in the last for barron. Now for the horse's actual chances on form - There are quotes available from barron which say he feels 5f on quick ground is what this horse needs. You need to go back 9 races and over a year to find them conditions but when you get there you see he won off a rating of 75 (ran to an 80). He is now rated 65 today after tumbling down the weights in a mix of contests between class 4 and 5 races over good or softer and even all weather. The price today is very fair in my opinion taking the chance that he relishes the ground as expected which would make him very well in on previous efforts over similar. He is only 4 and raced on ground with firm in the description just a handful of times so hopefully has a fair bit of improvement in him. 5:10 carlisle RIGOLETTO 4/1. I feel this is very good value compared to the front 2 in the betting. Hayek has been raised for a recent win recently but could need the race ran to suit being one from off the pace. A smallish runner field could be a negative for him and I am not convinced he has another penalty in him although he is not discounted. The favourite horatio carter is also not opposed as such but again represents poor value for me. He comes here on the back of a win and raised 4 but I have question marks around the strength of that race with the 2nd being average in a weaker race since and not much else doing much since apart from the 5th who obviously ran well below form. Horatio carter looks similar to hayek for me as he has shown nothing in the past few years to suggest he will take another penalty as you need to go back to 2010 for form good enough to land this although he was very good in relevance to this standard. Rigoletto comes here on the back of a 2nd behind dr red eye who has raced again friday coming 3rd behind 2 very good horses and all 3 will be well worth their chance in a class 3. The winner go dutch could even be a fair bit better and dr red eye could be complimented very well after giving it a fair lump of weight. Rigoletto looks risky on paper having just one win in 21 starts but he has tumbled down the weights in the past year coming from 90 right down to 74 but he has in fact raced fairly consistently in better races up to class 2 events and has placed 5 times since. This today is the very first time he's been dropped so low in grade handicapping and I'm sure a repeat of his last run will see him win.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July 14.10 Carlise: Bondesire @ 5/2 Paddy Power She is very unlucky to be still a maiden. She made a good debut at Pontefract last month, when she finished strongly despite being slowly into stride and being hampered in the closing stages. She was even more unlucky lto when she looked to have won it in good style - even the commentator figured her out as the winner. But what looked a clear thing in real time, looked differently in the replay where it was apparent that she was in fact caught on the line by the eventual winner. Hopefully she has more luck today but she has a stand out chance of course here with Joe Fanning booked for the ride who has a 40% strikerate for trainer David O'Meara over the last five years. O'Meara himself has a healthy 18% SR at Carlisle. 14.40 Carlisle: Gowanharry @ 5/1 Stan James Competitive race with a few lto winners but I think they have a bit to find to win again, so I ended up with Gowanharry as the most interesting horse. She won in good style at Newcastle on her Handicap debut, confirming the decent impression she gave in her tree maiden starts before. She went up only 3lb in the mark for that success, though couldn't confirm this form at Catterick the next time. Think it's easy to make excuses for that performance though as she was slowly into stride, yet pushed forward to get the lead anyway. That must have cost loads of valuable energy. She went a pretty strong gallop as well and had suddenly the whole field of the bridle a long way out already. She travelled smoothly till 2f out but tired then badly as a result of the suicidal pace and the bad start. That says she looks still very much capable to win of his current mark and with trainer Michael Dods in good form I can't see a reason why she shouldn't run a big race today.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July 14.20 Pontefract: Black Truffle @ 9/1 VC This could well go to a newcomer as the horses with experience are far from exciting and the Kyllachy son Black Truffle looks and interesting debutant. His sire won on his debut over 5f on good to firm ground himself and went later on to become a top class sprinter, so there is a fair chance that Black Truffle could be good enough on his debut to win a rather weak looking maiden. Michael Bell has his string in fine form and it's worth a try at a bigger price in this race to side with his newcomer I feel. 15.20 Pontefract: Circle Of Angels @ 7/2 Bet365 Improved filly from three to four, having been always in the money this year in three starts. She won very well and with a bit in hand I felt lto at Doncaster. She missed the break but travelled nicely to win it by ½ a lengths in the end, though I felt she was much better than the winning margin suggest. Her mark was only raised by 5lb which looks more than fair. She should have still more to offer and is the horse to beat here I think.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July Pontefract 5.20 - Argentine (20/1), Above The Stars (12/1), Belinsky (8/1), RFC, RTC Big 15 runner 5f handicap. No real draw bias but the course is always turning. Lots of pace drawn inside and the incentive from that draw is to shoot up the rail. Should give a chance to hold-up horses drawn wider. Argentine has looked poor in his last 3 runs but those races did not suit him. He wants a large field who race too quickly and he gets that here. Above The Stars is a bit on an unknown quantity but under Fahey has the potential to do well. Is coming back from a layoff but Fahey knows what he's doing and this animal could have been prepared to top fitness. Belinsky has found it tough in its career but showed renewed vigour when changing to held-up tactics in its last 2 runs. A first time visor here hopefully won't result in connections dropping the hold-up style.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July

Pontefract 320 - Circle Of Angels - 7/2 Bet365 Looks a progressive handicapper and won really well LTO coming from last to first to steal victory on the line. The form behind that run looks solid and it was backed up with a quick TS which still makes her well handicapped off her current mark. The track should suit her running style and the trip, going & class are all fine.

Just been at Ponty all afternoon and Jamie Spencer getting a lot of criticism from punters that have done their money in on him today. You mention rightly that it went from last to first at Donny under a Spencer hold up ride but then go on to say this track should suit its running style. That was the problem though as you can't ride Pontefract like you ride Donny if trying to hold a horse up and I mentioned this before the race to Whoneedsrio off this forum. Spencer attempted to come late and ballsed it up and really you need to be in the front rank turning in for home. It did well to finish where it did under that ride, follow it at a course that doesn't have a tight turn and uphill finish, maybe back at Donny and I think you'll get your money back on it. Unlucky today but poor ride by Spencer in my opinion, didn't back it either so not talking from my pocket.

2.50 Pontefract - 2pts win Singzak @ 16/1 (Bet365) This isn't a particularly good race and with Michael Easterby's runner making steady progression in two runs this season, he might just be ready to do himself justice now on his third run of the season. He hasn't shown much on two starts so far - beating 2 horses home on aggregate - but wasn't beaten as far at Doncaster last time when ridden prominently over a trip that probably just stretches him (1m5f). His best efforts have come over shorter and has run well here before. 1m4f is ideal and he's also a horse who seems to relish quick ground (didn't get it on first run back). He's down to a good mark now and hopefully will have fitness on his side now. Horses usually need to be near the front at Pontefract turning in and this one looks sure to be up there. That's another positive and I'm hopeful he'll run better today.

I backed this today too and fancied it. It seemed to get backed early on and went from 11-1/12-1 into about 9's on course but then went back out again before the off to about 12's again. Broke well but the commentator got it wrong and said it was last and had missed the break. He called the wrong horse as it was sat in a prominent position. Faded badly and was 2nd last. I won't be in a rush to back that again. Tudhope rode them to sleep from the front, cracking ride from an ever improving jockey.

Hello everybody, Newbie here. I've made the changeover from punting threads on a football forum to this. Hopefully I can give my fair share of winners and no doubt take a few too. I tend to bet mainly on the low grade flat which is probably rare but hopefully adds a new view and I must apologize in advance for the grammar but here goes...... I'm backing 2 today. GOTTCHER 5:20 PONTY 13/2 E/W. Jamie spencer has been on 10 for barron this year winning on 4 putting barron top of the pack when it comes to the lesser trainers supplying him with winners after his main 3 of simcock, bell and williams. The booking today is interesting as spencer has 2 rides for his main source ian williams, his last race is 4:20 and he hangs on to get on gottcher in the last for barron. Now for the horse's actual chances on form - There are quotes available from barron which say he feels 5f on quick ground is what this horse needs. You need to go back 9 races and over a year to find them conditions but when you get there you see he won off a rating of 75 (ran to an 80). He is now rated 65 today after tumbling down the weights in a mix of contests between class 4 and 5 races over good or softer and even all weather. The price today is very fair in my opinion taking the chance that he relishes the ground as expected which would make him very well in on previous efforts over similar. He is only 4 and raced on ground with firm in the description just a handful of times so hopefully has a fair bit of improvement in him.

Welcome to the forum, good to see another newbie signing up here. Had a close eye on this with Spencer having a bad day but he broke well on this, had it in a good position and then dropped from about 3rd to about 8th and just dropped back through the field and gave up on it. It looked like something had gone wrong but he never got off the horse to check. It looked too obvious to be a dodgy ride and I'd like to know what the trainer says or what Spencer says. It also drifted on course from 6's to 8's for no apparent reason.

15.20 Pontefract: Circle Of Angels @ 7/2 Bet365 Improved filly from three to four, having been always in the money this year in three starts. She won very well and with a bit in hand I felt lto at Doncaster. She missed the break but travelled nicely to win it by ½ a lengths in the end, though I felt she was much better than the winning margin suggest. Her mark was only raised by 5lb which looks more than fair. She should have still more to offer and is the horse to beat here I think.

See above. Back on a track that suits fast finishers it will take all the beating and still ran with credit but some jockeys seem to ride handicappers like they are sat on Frankel. You probably backed the best horse in the race but the way it was ridden didn't suit on this track at all.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat Racing Sunday 29th of July

Just been at Ponty all afternoon and Jamie Spencer getting a lot of criticism from punters that have done their money in on him today. You mention rightly that it went from last to first at Donny under a Spencer hold up ride but then go on to say this track should suit its running style. That was the problem though as you can't ride Pontefract like you ride Donny if trying to hold a horse up and I mentioned this before the race to Whoneedsrio off this forum. Spencer attempted to come late and ballsed it up and really you need to be in the front rank turning in for home. It did well to finish where it did under that ride, follow it at a course that doesn't have a tight turn and uphill finish, maybe back at Donny and I think you'll get your money back on it. Unlucky today but poor ride by Spencer in my opinion, didn't back it either so not talking from my pocket.

Cheers for the info! I havent even been able to see the race yet, so this is very interesting to know. I have never been to Pontefract so I wasnt sure how it should ride. The Racing Post says the track it sharp yet testing, which seems a slight contradiction to me but just looking throughout the results for all the races, their definitely seems to be a benefit to riding up with the pace with only one of the races being won by a horse that didnt 'make all', 'track leaders' or 'race prominent'. I will certainly keep my eye open for the horse NTO!