Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.20 Haydock - 4pts win Brockwell @ 5/1 (Bet365) Very keen on Tom Dascombe's charge here with his runners going well and this one has been in good form. Still relatively unexposed with only six runs under his belt to date, he's finished 2nd on his two most recent starts - having not been beaten far on his handicap debut over an insufficient 1m. Didn't get the run of the race in a four-runner event at Leicester two starts back when taking a hold (as can often be the case in a small field) but only went down by a neck to a nice horse with several lengths back to the third. That winner since was barely beaten 2l in the King George handicap at Royal Ascot and is now rated 86. Brockwell couldn't get past a handicap debutant last time of David Barron's yard but that one has franked the form by winning under a penalty next time out so the 2lb higher mark of my selection shouldn't rule him out of running another fine race. Although he faces his elders for the first time today, he's got more improvement in here than most and gets a hefty bit of weight from his older rivals. I think he can progress pass these today and get his first win under his belt. 4.20 Haydock - 3pts win Lord Aeryn @ 5/1 (Bet365) Don't Call Me will be popular for this but Richard Fahey's runner has been going well and crucially gets 7lbs taken off his back by George Chaloner today. He's just been shaping as if the handicapper has his measure off his mark of 88, but this gives him a chance to get back in the winner's enclosure in my eyes. There hasn't been much wrong with his efforts this year, having been successful off 79 last season (and subsequently competitive off higher). However, 88 is quite stiff for him to be winning perhaps, and the jockey is capable of producing a decent enough ride on him for his 7lb claim. Since his very encouraging first run of the season, he finished 3rd behind a thriving animal and a horse who subsequently ran well in the Wokingham, and you can put a line through his (on paper) heavy defeat at York last time. The first two had the best ground on the far side, and therefore the race between them, and low draws were important. My selection was posted in stall 15 and actually ran okay from his poor position. Some horses also well-beaten have come out and bounced back since so I think he can put that effort behind him. The better ground helps too, and I think he could be primed to strike now. 5.20 Haydock - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 5/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his recent run at Yarmouth:

4.55 Yarmouth - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 7/1 (Bet365) Jamie Osbourne's runner has been a frustrating horse to follow, having been sent off at 3/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 5/1 on his last four starts without landing a blow, and although he's not much bigger today (and may be backed in again), the continuous steps up in trip are bringing him closer to the boil and the 1m6f trip on offer here might just be the decisive factor in getting him into the winner's enclosure. His 4l 3rd to Unex Michelangelo over 7f on just his 2nd start last year reads well considering what has gone since, and he's sliding down the handicap to now run off 5lbs lower than his opening mark. This came in a mile race at Nottingham at the back-end of last season where he was struggling in the rear before making up some late ground. He was never dangerous but passed a few rivals late in the day to suggest he does have some ability when the conditions are right. He's a slow-started without much of a change in pace so the further he goes, the better he should run within reason. His seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 1m2f this season was very eyecatching for me as he stayed on really well in the closing stages from an uncompromising position. He was right out the back, hampered, and then delivered isolated up the centre of the course (often best to be on stands rail in soft conditions). He ended up 5th of 13 under pretty generous handling. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have run well enough since to suggest the form holds some water so I don't think it was a terrible run, for all it shouted out like he'd want even further. He got that last time out over 1m4f and came closest yet when beaten 5 1/4l. I'm not sure it was a sufficient-enough test given the ground was on the quick side, and although it is again today, he has an extra 2f to play with. It was a similar story as he was slowly away and behind before staying on into 6th. His pedigree contains plenty of stamina, being by Dylan Thomas and the 1m6f trip looks the obvious thing to do with him today. This might just be his trip based on what we've seen so far and it could make his mark look fair. The yard are going okay and Jamie Spencer takes the ride for the first time. It isn't a special race and fingers crossed the key to this one has been found and he can repay the faith of connections and punters alike.

He ran better than the bare result here, but again struggled to get to the leaders. He did shape as if a stiffer test would help, yet again, and the easier ground should help in that respect today. Jamie Spencer never really had him running in the straight line for very long up the straight, constantly switching for different runs and he ended up short of room when staying on at the finish. Wouldn't have made a difference but would have gone closer than the 4 1/4l losing margin. May well have beaten Key Gold there with a clear run, and I suspect the stiffer test will help mine more than that one here. Therefore I don't fear the market leader and Graham Lee is a jockey booking that I like for Jamie Osborne's runner. I am more fearful of Dropzone but I think a race is there to be won for Byron Blue and if Lee gets him into a competitive position, I think he'll take the beating. 5.10 Yarmouth - 5pts win Camera Shy @ 7/2 (Bet365) Posted this before his recent Lingfield run:

9.05 Lingfield - 4pts win Camera Shy @ 7/1 (Bet365) Kevin Morgan is 1-1 in the last fortnight and he brings his relatively prolific gelding back to the all-weather having bounced back with a good 2nd last time out. He did best of those held up on the turf at Yarmouth last time out and he's just as good - if not better - on the artificial surface. Crucially, this horse runs extremely well at this time of year with 4 of his 5 wins coming in June (in 3 separate years) and is nicely handicapped now after he was out of form having won at Kempton over 1m4f this time last year. He was a very ready winner on that occasion as he came home an unchallenged 2l victor and that was off a mark of 56. He runs off 57 today with the capable Ashley Hamblett taking off 3lbs so he's got a good chance at the weights and I think we'll see him ridden closer to the pace today. He is better over 1m4f probably but has the pace to compete at this trip and has won here in the past. Hamblett is 1-2 for the yard (2nd on this horse on the other start) and is 2-5 on the all-weather track here. Everything adds up to a big performance and I'm surprised he's as big as 7/1 this evening.

He was very well supported on this occasion but was slowly away from his wide draw and Hamblett could never get the prominent sit he needed over 1m2f around Lingfield. It proved to be a bit sharp for him as he could never really get into a good position and the leader had gone before he could stay on into 3rd. He was forced wide throughout and he'll relish the return to 1m4f today. Decent ground is ideal for him and he has registered a win and two places previously at Yarmouth. This is his time of year, he's in good heart, and has a good apprentice on board. He gets a sufficient swing in the weights with The Ducking Stool to make me think he can reverse that form and I'm very confident he'll get his head in front today.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 4.10 yarm touch gold 9pts california english 8pts+ take two 8pts strada facendo 7pts ocean tempest 6pts very tight little race and this looks to be mainly between the top 3 rated but there are question marks over california english as on paper looks a huge danger today but when ran on turf last but one ran a real stinker and has the profile of horse that is much better on the a.w but there is no reason to suggest he shouldnt be equally effective on fast turf ground so it could be that the horse improved drastically lto and is now ready for a good run ? touch gold has been running very fast of late (81) so should run well again ,take two also looks dangerous with distance suiting fine .im going to go touch gold and take a huge risk on california english only because he is so well weighted its untrue (especially with 3lb claim) touch gold 2pts win 11/2 betvic california english 2pt saver 9/1 bet365