Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.20 Haydock - 4pts win Brockwell @ 5/1 (Bet365) Very keen on Tom Dascombe's charge here with his runners going well and this one has been in good form. Still relatively unexposed with only six runs under his belt to date, he's finished 2nd on his two most recent starts - having not been beaten far on his handicap debut over an insufficient 1m. Didn't get the run of the race in a four-runner event at Leicester two starts back when taking a hold (as can often be the case in a small field) but only went down by a neck to a nice horse with several lengths back to the third. That winner since was barely beaten 2l in the King George handicap at Royal Ascot and is now rated 86. Brockwell couldn't get past a handicap debutant last time of David Barron's yard but that one has franked the form by winning under a penalty next time out so the 2lb higher mark of my selection shouldn't rule him out of running another fine race. Although he faces his elders for the first time today, he's got more improvement in here than most and gets a hefty bit of weight from his older rivals. I think he can progress pass these today and get his first win under his belt. 4.20 Haydock - 3pts win Lord Aeryn @ 5/1 (Bet365) Don't Call Me will be popular for this but Richard Fahey's runner has been going well and crucially gets 7lbs taken off his back by George Chaloner today. He's just been shaping as if the handicapper has his measure off his mark of 88, but this gives him a chance to get back in the winner's enclosure in my eyes. There hasn't been much wrong with his efforts this year, having been successful off 79 last season (and subsequently competitive off higher). However, 88 is quite stiff for him to be winning perhaps, and the jockey is capable of producing a decent enough ride on him for his 7lb claim. Since his very encouraging first run of the season, he finished 3rd behind a thriving animal and a horse who subsequently ran well in the Wokingham, and you can put a line through his (on paper) heavy defeat at York last time. The first two had the best ground on the far side, and therefore the race between them, and low draws were important. My selection was posted in stall 15 and actually ran okay from his poor position. Some horses also well-beaten have come out and bounced back since so I think he can put that effort behind him. The better ground helps too, and I think he could be primed to strike now. 5.20 Haydock - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 5/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his recent run at Yarmouth:

4.55 Yarmouth - 3pts win Byron Blue @ 7/1 (Bet365) Jamie Osbourne's runner has been a frustrating horse to follow, having been sent off at 3/1, 5/1, 6/1 and 5/1 on his last four starts without landing a blow, and although he's not much bigger today (and may be backed in again), the continuous steps up in trip are bringing him closer to the boil and the 1m6f trip on offer here might just be the decisive factor in getting him into the winner's enclosure. His 4l 3rd to Unex Michelangelo over 7f on just his 2nd start last year reads well considering what has gone since, and he's sliding down the handicap to now run off 5lbs lower than his opening mark. This came in a mile race at Nottingham at the back-end of last season where he was struggling in the rear before making up some late ground. He was never dangerous but passed a few rivals late in the day to suggest he does have some ability when the conditions are right. He's a slow-started without much of a change in pace so the further he goes, the better he should run within reason. His seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 1m2f this season was very eyecatching for me as he stayed on really well in the closing stages from an uncompromising position. He was right out the back, hampered, and then delivered isolated up the centre of the course (often best to be on stands rail in soft conditions). He ended up 5th of 13 under pretty generous handling. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have run well enough since to suggest the form holds some water so I don't think it was a terrible run, for all it shouted out like he'd want even further. He got that last time out over 1m4f and came closest yet when beaten 5 1/4l. I'm not sure it was a sufficient-enough test given the ground was on the quick side, and although it is again today, he has an extra 2f to play with. It was a similar story as he was slowly away and behind before staying on into 6th. His pedigree contains plenty of stamina, being by Dylan Thomas and the 1m6f trip looks the obvious thing to do with him today. This might just be his trip based on what we've seen so far and it could make his mark look fair. The yard are going okay and Jamie Spencer takes the ride for the first time. It isn't a special race and fingers crossed the key to this one has been found and he can repay the faith of connections and punters alike.

He ran better than the bare result here, but again struggled to get to the leaders. He did shape as if a stiffer test would help, yet again, and the easier ground should help in that respect today. Jamie Spencer never really had him running in the straight line for very long up the straight, constantly switching for different runs and he ended up short of room when staying on at the finish. Wouldn't have made a difference but would have gone closer than the 4 1/4l losing margin. May well have beaten Key Gold there with a clear run, and I suspect the stiffer test will help mine more than that one here. Therefore I don't fear the market leader and Graham Lee is a jockey booking that I like for Jamie Osborne's runner. I am more fearful of Dropzone but I think a race is there to be won for Byron Blue and if Lee gets him into a competitive position, I think he'll take the beating. 5.10 Yarmouth - 5pts win Camera Shy @ 7/2 (Bet365) Posted this before his recent Lingfield run:

9.05 Lingfield - 4pts win Camera Shy @ 7/1 (Bet365) Kevin Morgan is 1-1 in the last fortnight and he brings his relatively prolific gelding back to the all-weather having bounced back with a good 2nd last time out. He did best of those held up on the turf at Yarmouth last time out and he's just as good - if not better - on the artificial surface. Crucially, this horse runs extremely well at this time of year with 4 of his 5 wins coming in June (in 3 separate years) and is nicely handicapped now after he was out of form having won at Kempton over 1m4f this time last year. He was a very ready winner on that occasion as he came home an unchallenged 2l victor and that was off a mark of 56. He runs off 57 today with the capable Ashley Hamblett taking off 3lbs so he's got a good chance at the weights and I think we'll see him ridden closer to the pace today. He is better over 1m4f probably but has the pace to compete at this trip and has won here in the past. Hamblett is 1-2 for the yard (2nd on this horse on the other start) and is 2-5 on the all-weather track here. Everything adds up to a big performance and I'm surprised he's as big as 7/1 this evening.

He was very well supported on this occasion but was slowly away from his wide draw and Hamblett could never get the prominent sit he needed over 1m2f around Lingfield. It proved to be a bit sharp for him as he could never really get into a good position and the leader had gone before he could stay on into 3rd. He was forced wide throughout and he'll relish the return to 1m4f today. Decent ground is ideal for him and he has registered a win and two places previously at Yarmouth. This is his time of year, he's in good heart, and has a good apprentice on board. He gets a sufficient swing in the weights with The Ducking Stool to make me think he can reverse that form and I'm very confident he'll get his head in front today.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 4.10 yarm touch gold 9pts california english 8pts+ take two 8pts strada facendo 7pts ocean tempest 6pts very tight little race and this looks to be mainly between the top 3 rated but there are question marks over california english as on paper looks a huge danger today but when ran on turf last but one ran a real stinker and has the profile of horse that is much better on the a.w but there is no reason to suggest he shouldnt be equally effective on fast turf ground so it could be that the horse improved drastically lto and is now ready for a good run ? touch gold has been running very fast of late (81) so should run well again ,take two also looks dangerous with distance suiting fine .im going to go touch gold and take a huge risk on california english only because he is so well weighted its untrue (especially with 3lb claim) touch gold 2pts win 11/2 betvic california english 2pt saver 9/1 bet365

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 905 newb misdemeanour 13pts+ biographer 9pts turnofthesun 12pts + ultimate destiny 7pts biographer won lto and is short fav for this but will need to improve to take on the class horses misdemanour and turnofthesun .misdemeanour could actually be rated much higher than the 13pts i have given as he was only beaten 4 abit lengths in a 35,000 recently but finished 8th that day so cant rate on that run but you could argue that had it been a 25000 he would have finished much closer so his rating could be around 20+ making him an outstanding bet for the hannon /hughes team .turnofthesun ran a stinker lto on the a.w and you have to forgive that run completely if he is to have a chance here ......not much explanation for that bad so a worry but could have been he took too much of a hold and ran out of steam as a result willian buick rejoins this gosden horse today so notable partnership misdemeanour 2pts win 5/1 bet365 turnofthesun 2pts saver 8/1 bet365 dangers biographer and ultimate destiny lto winners may improve

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 2.20 hay phase shift 9pts+ skyfire 7pts mighty claret 6pts brockwell 6pts another open race but it might be worth taking a chance on the fitness of phase shift here who returns after nearly 12 monthes off but on previous form could be well in if fit and ready ...phase shifts rating comes from a mark of 64 and today runs off 55!! with the claim so unoubtably well hcapped for comeback 2 bookies go 10/1 ...4 of the others have cut to 7/1 so 10/1 looks a good e.w bet phase shift 1pt e.w 10/1 sporting bet plenty of dangers

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July

2.20 hay phase shift 9pts+ skyfire 7pts mighty claret 6pts brockwell 6pts another open race but it might be worth taking a chance on the fitness of phase shift here who returns after nearly 12 monthes off but on previous form could be well in if fit and ready ...phase shifts rating comes from a mark of 64 and today runs off 55!! with the claim so unoubtably well hcapped for comeback 2 bookies go 10/1 ...4 of the others have cut to 7/1 so 10/1 looks a good e.w bet phase shift 1pt e.w 10/1 sporting bet plenty of dangers

phase shift drifted badly on course .....obviuosly wasnt fit and they didnt like him brockwell won ,skyfire 2nd .....1st and 2nd in top 3 ratings

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July Yarmouth's 3:10 is a very interesting handicap over 7f. Great Expectations looks a worthy favourite. He was available at 5/1 last night but best price is now 11/4. He's down in grade after a disappointing slightly as favourite on what looked to have been unfavourable ground at Goodwood. He may also have been inconvenienced by the track itself. Back on a flat track with way better ground, he is an obvious threat. What I will say is the drop in grade is a worry. He seemed to be progressing well enough in higher grades, so it's a slightly unusual move. He's now carrying more actual weight on the day against other potential improvers. First Class continues to improve and he simply has to be better than his 55 mark. He finished really well over C&D last time and definitely seems well handicapped against most of this lot. Rough Rock was 5th in the same race and would have arguably been a lot closer if he didn't get the run from hell up the rail. He was checked, had to be switched and was checked again before finally running on well late in the day. Conditions are virtually identical today. He's up 5lbs in the official ratings thanks to his comfortable Newmarket success catching up with him, but promising apprentice Josh Crane nullifies the 5lb rise by taking off 7. Spin Again featured in the same race, finishing behind Rough Rock, but he weakened tamely that day and the handicapper seems to have his number following his brace of victories. Spirit of Gondree is one to note. I have just seen he is available at 40/1, which appears to be a ridiculous price on the face of it. Admttedly he has shown nothing on turf to date, but he won really well last time when he battled on really encouragingly at the death. I think he could perform better now on turf. Dropping back a furlong certainly shouldn't inconvenience him. The last one worth a good mention is Intomist. He put in a good display last time out over C&D. I'd ignore his previous two runs prior to that. Brighton didn't appear to be for him and the softer ground did for him at Newbury. He seemed to thrive on the flatter track and should be thereabouts. So, I have concluded it is wide open, but I probably wouldn't be true to myself if I looked beyond Rough Rock. There has been plenty to like about his recent performances, he loves the track, he loves the ground and still looks well handicapped with the claimer helping out.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 340 yarm irish girls spirit 7pts autocracy 6pts temple road 6pts oi long 6 pts the jailer 6pts miss polly plum 6pts very tough race with irish girls spirit marginally top rated and has just drifted to 3/1 so i might have a go ....of the others i like temple road irish girls spirit 2pt win 3/1 bet365 temple road 2pts savr 15/2 boyles

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July

340 yarm irish girls spirit 7pts autocracy 6pts temple road 6pts oi long 6 pts the jailer 6pts miss polly plum 6pts very tough race with irish girls spirit marginally top rated and has just drifted to 3/1 so i might have a go ....of the others i like temple road irish girls spirit 2pt win 3/1 bet365 temple road 2pts savr 15/2 boyles

irish girls spirit ....bang .....another winner for classform, autocracy 3rd

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July

4.10 yarm touch gold 9pts california english 8pts+ take two 8pts strada facendo 7pts ocean tempest 6pts very tight little race and this looks to be mainly between the top 3 rated but there are question marks over california english as on paper looks a huge danger today but when ran on turf last but one ran a real stinker and has the profile of horse that is much better on the a.w but there is no reason to suggest he shouldnt be equally effective on fast turf ground so it could be that the horse improved drastically lto and is now ready for a good run ? touch gold has been running very fast of late (81) so should run well again ,take two also looks dangerous with distance suiting fine .im going to go touch gold and take a huge risk on california english only because he is so well weighted its untrue (especially with 3lb claim) touch gold 2pts win 11/2 betvic california english 2pt saver 9/1 bet365

touch gold wins easily ...nice price 2 winners from 3 so far 1more race tonight record of class form top rated this week ......no extra form just pure top rated horse .... won 13/2 won 5/1 lost lost won 10/1 lost lost won 11/8 lost won 11/2 won 3/1 also jump racing 15/8 won jump racing lost all hcaps flat .....11 races 6 winners were top rated !!!(with jumps 13 races 7 winners) overall the top rated is winning 50% of all hcap races so far !! 3 more winners were 2nd or 3rd rated so 10 from 13 races were rated in top 3!!!!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 6.20 Newbury - 3pts win Gordon Flash @ 8/1 (VC) Charles Hills' runners are running back into a nice bit of form after a quiet period around Royal Ascot and I always like to be on the side of a good apprentice in these races. His runner here definitely has one of those on board in the shape of Matthew Lawson with 42 wins under his belt. His experience can come in handy here and quite often the inexperienced riders can go off too quick and that will suit this horse who clearly wants a strong test at middle distances. Cut in the ground is a positive and he made a highly encouraging debut for the yard on his first run since August 2010 at Bath recently. Previously with Richard Hannon, he did fail to win a race but showed promise on numerous occasions to suggest his mark of 60 will not be beyond him. He was twice beaten narrowly off 65 (finishing strongly) before running a couple of weaker races at Goodwood. That track wouldn't be ideal for him but he bounced back with better efforts the next twice. He suffered from a farcical pace at Lingfield when he had to eventually go and make his own running which isn't ideal (race time was 7 seconds slower than standard!) and just bumped into one at Windsor on his final start for Hannon. He shaped as if a test over 1m4f would be ideal and the cut in the ground today will play to his strengths. He's 5lb lower for that runner-up and his recent reappearance suggested that he still retained all, or much of his ability. He wasn't given a hard time at Bath over 1m2f but travelled well and was staying on when short of room on the stands rail. His chance was gone there, although I doubt he'd have won anyway, before keeping on at his own pace to go down by 4 1/2l. With that run under his belt, he should strip fitter today and wasn't mullered by William Carson. The step back up in trip is ideal and he's capable of winning off 60 in my book. Think he's overpriced here and should be more like a 6/1 shot. Should go well if not bouncing.

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 7.45 - Epsom - Konstantin EW @ 10/1 William Hill Couple of these look a little short priced to me and i feel that Konstantin may offer some slight value. Won on his final outing of last season over C&D off a mark of 73. Only had 2 runs so far this year, the first was on the AW after a long break and the 2nd was a much more positive 4th at Goodwood where he was only just over a length behind the winner. Probably needs to find a little extra to win this but has 7lb claimer Katia Scallan taking over from Hayley Turner which could just help, especially as she has rode reasonably from what i have seen in recent weeks. Looks a competitive race but worth an each way bet in my opinion.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 5th July 9.05 Newbury - 3pts win Moidore @ 7/2 (Boyles) I knew there was something about this horse that made him interesting to me and I now recall connections saying he'd be ridden closer to the pace at Kempton last time having been held up on his seasonal debut. He was disappointing on that occasion but is a big, galloping type who will have come on for the run. He won on his third start last year and he should be in tip-top shape now this time around. His outside draw and moderate start at Kempton forced James Doyle's hand into holding him up once more and he could only keep on without threatening late in the day. I think he'll be a better horse when allowed to make use of his stamina up near the front end and I anticipate a much more positive ride today so hopefully he'll break from the stalls in good style. I've missed the price on him for sure, but the support is encouraging for a yard in flying form, and I think he'll take some beating under (hopefully) different tactics today.