Flat Racing - Wednesday 4th July 2012

[Edberg]

8.00 Kempton SPENSLEY 4pts win @ 11/2 bog (Ladbrokes) Spensley is a 6yo chestnut gelding trained by James Fanshawe who has shown not so much on his 13 starts on the grass (1 win, 1 second and 1 third with his sole turf win coming in a class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Leicester in 2009 off 65) but has built up an impressive record on the AW and in particular here at Kempton over middle distance races. The son of Dr Fong won 4 races in a row here at Kempton (1m3f-1m4f) between September 2010 and September 2011, all in handicaps starting from a mark of 68 and winning his last race (a class 3) off 86. That last win came in a strong race where the second was Art History who has won two class 2 handicaps since and went up 8lb since (now is a decent novice hurdler). Spensley ran twice more at the end of 2011, both in November, again here at Kempton over 1m3f and 1m4f but in two very tough races finishing 6th in a Listed where he was almost 2st wrong at the weight with the top 3 (race won by Prince Bishop who went on to finish 3rd in a Group 1 and 7th in the Dubai World Cup after that race) and his last effort was when 4th in a conditions stakes won by Irish Flame, a former Group 1 winner, and once again he didn't run so bad considering he was 1st wrong at the weights with the top two and 6lb with the third. When he won Kieren Fallon, who rode him in all his 4 wins here at Kempton, said "he had a bit up his sleeve" and this step up in trip seems sure to suit back in handicap off a decent mark of 90 which is only 4lb higher than his last winning mark. Fanshawe didn't have a good Royal Ascot as last year but his horses have been on fire in the last week. The Newmarket-based trainer saddled 4 winners, 2 seconds and 1 fourth with his last 7 runners during the last 8 days and is 2 out of 2 here at Kempton in the last two weeks and the trainer's recent record at Kempton with 3yo+ runners is quite impressive: 29 winners from 92 runners (32%) and 6 winners from 15 runners in 2012 (40%). The gelding has been working very well (reported by the trainer's wife less than two weeks ago) and the only big danger in this race seems Rumh, a 4yo trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (who has an impressive record here at Kempton with 49 winners from 149 runners in the last 5 seasons for a very good 33% winning strike rate). The Godolphin's filly won a maiden in her sole start on the AW at Wolverhampton in 2010 and won her second and so far last race in impressive style last year, which was a Listed for 3yos at Newbury over 1m2f in June 2011, but subsequently found the top category too much for her. Back in action 5 weeks ago at Epsom in a tough handicap won by Gatewood she finished second last beaten 9.25L and showed little also in her next/last start at Warwick finishing 4th of 6 but beaten 9.5L in a Listed for fillies and mares. She could build on those two performances and this is surely a drop in class with stable now on fire (7 winners in the last fortnight after a very slow start of the season) but still she doesn't have the profile of a progressive horse and even if dropped to a mark of 90 (the same of Spensley) she doesn't make a special appeal in this race at current prices (current market leader). This is a step up in trip also for Rumh and she didn't look like crying out for it in her previous runs.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 4th July 2012 not much out hcap wise today so just thought id tackle this race ..... 8.35 kemp roxy flyer 22pts speed 87 romana chase 11pts speed 78 big creek 8pts speed 81 nave 9pts (possibly 10pts) speed 78 roxy flyer is difficult to weigh up but on the whole looks a very classy horse dropping in grade ,long layoff to overcome a negative but has a lot going for and the fact that bookies have installed as fav in last 30 mins suggests big run expected ......of the others ramona chase usually nabs a race of this sort and looks a possible today although still a tad high in weights might just be able to nick it ....nave looks dangerous off bottom weight but lack of a.w form off putting and big creek has course/dist form so looks a fairly strong bet and bit of money for this morning also at around 9/1 (from 11/1 ) tough race race but ill have a go on a weak day roxy flyer 2pt win 9/2 bet365 big creek 1pt saver 9/1 generally