Jump Racing - Sun 1st July

[Edberg]

3.30 Uttoxeter Summer Cup MUMBLES HEAD 4pts win @ 6/1 bog (Paddy Power) I had written this before his last race: 4.10 Perth MUMBLES HEAD 3pts to win @ 6/1 bog (Betvictor and many more) Perth Gold Cup, handicap chase over 3m which is the highlight of the day in the jumping section in UK. I'm going with one of the favourites here. Mumbles Head is an 11yo gelding by Flemensfirth trained by Peter Bowen and owned by Mrs Karen Bowen. He started his career winning a bumper in 2006 and finished twice second in that sphere later on in 2006 after a try at the Champion Bumper of the 2006 Cheltenham Festival. Mumbles Head built on those nice performances and went on to become a very good hurdler (3 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 10 starts over hurdles, rated up to 135) winning twice here at Perth (over 3m3f on good to soft and over 3m1f on soft ground, both in 2007). He missed almost two years (May 2007- Mar 2009) for different injuries but came back with a good third of 15 in a class 2 handicap over hurdles at Uttoxeter (2m7f, good to soft) where he was racing off a mark of 128 and after a couple of below par efforts in Listed companies he was sent off over fences in the autumn 2009. His chasing career started soon with an impressive win at Newcastle (2m4f, good to soft) and two weeks later he finished second in a novices' chase over 3m again at Newcastle (good to soft) beaten just 4L by Weapon's Amnesty the Gigginstown-owned horse who won two Grade 1s in two successive seasons at the Cheltenham Festival (the Albert Bartlett over hurdles in 2009 and the RSA Chase over fences in 2010). After that fantastic start of his chasing career Mumbles Head finished twice in a row third in Grade 2 companies (races with only 4 runners where he was well beaten) and subsequently missed another full season (Jun 2010-Oct 2011) coming back last autumn still not fully fit and with a lot problems in his jumping. His form until this spring reads: F-PU-UR-7-6-PU and actually most of the people thought he was done and dusted but the Bowens still believe the horse had his own class to come back at a good level and they were right as he hit the form in the last two months finishing 2nd at Ffos Las in a class 4 handicap over 3m2f on good ground racing off a mark of 101 (15 Apr) and won his last two starts at Market Rasen over 3m1f on soft ground off 106 and upped in class 3 won also here at Perth over today's C&D (3m, good) 25 days ago off 118. Both wins came in very good style and his last hike of 11lb in the rating doesn't really sound too harsh as the form of his last win has been more than franked with the 3rd Allanard (beaten 27L that day) able to win next/last time out (3 days ago) a class 3 handicap off 109 (1lb lower mark) the 5th Harry Flashman bolted up next/last time out (12 days ago) in a class 4 handicap off 115 (2lb lower mark) and the 2nd General Hardi wasn't disgraced when 4th of 9 in a better race over 3m6f at Cartmel next/last time out (4 days ago) racing off a 2lb higher mark (those three horses are the only runners of that race who ran since). Mumbles Head won that race in very good style, even more than the official margins would suggest, as he made a bad mistake at the water jump on the first circuit and was given a very cool ride by Tom O'Brien who allowed him to recover and progressively get back in contention, always travelling very well he challenged the leader at the second last and cleared afterwards to win with something still in hand. Tom O'Brien has an impressive record when partnering with Mumbles Head: 5 wins and 4 seconds in 10 starts that means that Mumbles Head won only twice without him on board (the horse's overall record is 7 wins and 6 seconds in 27 starts). The jockey is having a very good season with 12 wins from 58 rides so far (21%) and has a very good record here at Perth (6 wins from 28 rides in the last 5 seasons for a very good 21% strike rate) and the same goes for the trained Peter Bowen who has had 12 winners and 12 seconds from 54 runners in the last two months (22%) and half of them came in the last fortnight (exactly 6 wins and 6 seconds from 22 runners for a 27% winning strike rate and a 55% top 2 strike rate during the last fortnight) and Bowen's record at Perth over fences reads very good indeed with 5 winners from 20 runners in the last 5 years (25%). So we have a very good and in-form jockey who has a special feeling with this horse, the trainer in very good form (both very good at this track too), the horse is in sparkling form and in the past was supposed to be way better than an handicapper and has never progressed mainly because of his many injuries but his new rating of 129 is surely not beyond his possibilities as the very good form of his last win would suggest. If his body stays fit for another tough race (as this won't be easy for sure) Mumbles Head should go very close even in this highly competitive race. He won in impressive style that day and is now off top weight in this Summer Cup facing a 13lb rise in the rating. Not an easy task for sure but I do really like this horse and hopefully there is more to come with Cottage Oak, beaten 9L in the Perth Gold Cup, being the main rival today thanks to an 11lb pull. Still I rate Mumbles Head better than the Gordon Elliott-trained horse here and among the others I can't see any big danger.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing - Sun 1st July 3.30 Uttoxeter: Johns Smith’s Summer Cup (Handicap) (Listed) (3m2f) This is a most competitive handicap and many can be put forward as possible winners, I like the chances of Cottage Oak for Gordon Elliott, his second to Mumbles Head is good form and must have a chance on 13lbs better terms and on his preferred ground. Ouzbeck can’t be ruled out if he’s in the mood and worth a small each way bet at fair odds. Selections; 2pts Cottage Oak 9/1 Blue Square 1pt EW Ouzbeck 12/1 Bet365 Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/uttoxeter-betting--cottage-oak-can-gain-revenge-on-mumbles-head-in-summer-cup-at-uttoxeter