Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June

[BillyHills]

All selections and discussion in here please Royal Ascot Day Three - Thursday 21st June 2012 Time Race Class Dist. 14.30 The Norfolk Stakes Group 2 5f 15.05 The Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2 1m4f 15.50 The Gold Cup Group 1 2m4f 16.25 The Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap 1m 17.00 The Hampton Court Stakes Listed 1m2f 17.35 The King George V Stakes Heritage Handicap 1m4f

[beaker1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Excluding the 2010 winner Approve, each of the previous 11 winners had been successful last time out; often at smaller tracks 9 of the last 12 winners hadn’t raced over further than 5f 9 of the last 12 winners started at 6-1 or shorter 8 of the last 12 winners were making only their 2nd or 3rd start Although there are only 12 runners in this years Norfolk, unlike the Coventry and Queen Mary which both attracted huge fields, it is arguably the most competitive 2yo race so far. CAY VERDE wouldn’t be the strongest trends pick as he has already raced 3 times but there has been a lot to like about him so far this season. After an acceptable debut at Newbury, he absolutely hosed up over course and distance and the form of that race has worked out nicely as the runner-up Hototo, won at Ayr next time before winning Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. Channon’s colt went onto produce an equally impressive performance when winning the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. Richard Hughes took the ride that day and it would be fair to say that although they didn’t hang around, he only had to get low in the saddled to drive this colt out for a comfortable victory. The runner-up, Dylanbaru has also franked the form when beaten only a length in Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. But this isn’t the foregone conclusion that it might sound as there are some serious rivals in opposition. Reckless Abandon looked a very promising colt when winning on his debut at Doncaster, in fact he earned the best speed figures on the card when powering home last month, which is no mean feat for a juvenile on his debut. Annunciation was 2L behind him on Town Moor but put that experience to good use when he ran out a 6L winner at Windsor next time. That suggests that there is little to separate them. Hannon’s second string, Mister Marc is no mug having won well on his debut at Goodwood and then chased home Dawn Approach, yesterday’s Coventry winner, in a Listed contest at Naas. Ahern powered clear on his debut at Musselburgh in a race that Frederick Engels won last year before his Windsor Castle success and earlier winners all went onto place in either the Norfolk or the Queen Mary. He was a little green early on but when the penny dropped he showed a dazzling turn of foot to win a shade cosily. Others for consideration include Gale Force Ten and Morawij. Whatever the outcome, this looks a race that could have reverberations throughout the season. 3.05 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 9 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than three times as a juvenile 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 1m2f 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top two finish last time (6 were winners) 3 of the last 12 winners had run in the Oaks Two winning favourites and 1 joint favourite in the last decade Saeed Bin Suroor has won the 3 times since 2004 Strictly on a line through the Oaks form a strong case could be argued for PRINCESS HIGHWAY who staked her claim by beating the Oaks winner Was in the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May. Always traveling well, she looked in total control a furlong out and stuck gamely to the task in hand when running out a 1L winner. Prior to her victory at Naas, she had beaten a good yardstick in Betterbetterbetter in a Leopardstown maiden. Although she wasn’t entered in the Oaks, Weld suggested at Naas that she wouldn’t take in the Irish1,000 Guineas or Oaks, instead eyeing a trip to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale, a race he won with Princess Highway’s dam Irresistible Jewel back in 2002. In fact, to quote the legendary Irish trainer, he said: “I think the logical progression will be to go for the Ribblesdale now. This filly is a late-maturing type and I think waiting for Royal Ascot is the prudent way to go. She will learn from today and I think as the year progresses, she will definitely be a Group One filly.” Although Shirocco Star finished one place ahead of The Fugue in the Oaks, John Gosden’s filly was the one to take out of the race as she didn’t have the easiest of passages, so did well to stay on for 3rd. She had looked awesome when winning the Musidora the time before and can bounce back tomorrow with a big run. Momentary ran well on her debut at Newbury in April and put that experience to good use when winning the Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial, beating Shirocco Star a short-head in the process. That form has worded out nicely and although she will need to make another step-up, she does look the sort to be open to further improvement. 3.50 – Gold Cup (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners were male 10 of the last 12 winners came from the first four in the betting (6 favourites) 11 of the last 12 winners had already run that season over 1m6f+ (including NH) 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Group race over 2m+ 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between four and six (Yeats recorded the other two) 7 of the last 12 winners had won last time out The trends surrounding the Gold Cup are skewed somewhat due to Yeats’ recent dominance and further back in time the multiple winners Sadeem, Drum Taps and Royal Rebel. Even so, all know facts suggest that FAME AND GLORY should record his second win in the race. He looked as good as ever when winning the Vintage Crop Stakes on his reappearance and no doubt O’Brien had still left a bit to work on. On all know form last season, he does look to hold Opinion Poll although Godolphin’s runner does look to have improved over the winter, firstly when winning in Dubai on World Cup night, and again when winning the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. Godolphin also have a likely candidate in the shape of Colour Vision who progressed significantly last season when with Mark Johnston. Third in the Cesarewitch, which is no mean feat for a 3yo, he then ran Fame And Glory to just over a length on Champion’s Day. He looked to have wintered well when making his reappearance at Kempton when he handed Red Cadeaux a 1 1/2L beating and Ed Dunlop’s runner then franked the form by winning the Yorkshire Cup before finishing runner-up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The O’Brien horse does look the most likely winner but a small bet on Colour Vision wouldn’t look out of place if he can keep on improving this season. Saddler’s Rock is another 4yo that should progress this year if his defeat of Opinion Poll in last season’s Yorkshire Cup is anything to go by. He did suffer a minor set-back in the spring which delayed his comeback until 8th June when he finished runner-up in the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown. John Oxx said beforehand that he would need to race and also expressed doubts about the testing conditions so he must have been pleased to see him travel nicely throughout before staying on well through the closing stages. He will be sharper for the experience and as long as the heavens don’t open, he looks sure to run a big race. 4.25 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 17 of the last 21 winners had not run in more than two handicaps 10 of the last 13 winners had achieved a top 3 finish last time 7 of the last 13 winners had raced five times or less 9 of the last 13 winners were officially rated between 90 and 100 5 of the last 8 winners had been drawn in stall 4 or lower James Fanshawe and John Gosden are trainers to follow The Britannia usually goes the way of a lightly raced and unexposed runner and FOREST ROW fits the bill nicely. A half-brother to Presvis, he was well-supported ahead of his debut at Newbury in May last year and ran an okay race to finish 5th. He then suffered a set-back with kept him off the track until October when he was again well-backed but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. He made no mistake on his reappearance back at Newbury when he won with plenty of authority, having travelled well and then finding plenty on the run to the line. Being gelded over the winter obviously helped and he looks the sort that can go on improving this season in handicaps off his current mark of 88. Born To Surprise fits a similar mould. Runner-up on his sole start at two, he looked very impressive when winning a Doncaster maiden at the Lincoln meeting. After that victory he was touted as a possible Guineas horse but a lack-lustre performance in the Craven soon put paid to that. He is undoubtedly better than that showing and he looks an interesting runner here off a mark of 92. Fast Or Free looked a bit weak on his sole juvenile start but he seemed to have matured when winning on his reappearance at Kempton in May. That earned him a mark of 80 but he had no trouble following up in a competitive Newmarket handicap 12 days ago. He has showed a really likeable attitude on his 2 starts this season and a revised mark of 87 might not be enough to stop his progressing further. Kahruman run into a nice type in Wrotham Heath on his sole start last season but had no trouble getting off the mark at Kempton on his reappearance. He followed that with a solid performance when 4th in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown next time when he was conceding experience to many of his rivals. His showed good battling qualities that day which he will need to do again as the handicapper has shown no mercy giving him a rating of 98. 5.00 – Tercentenary Stakes (Formerly the Hampton Court Stakes (Listed)) 3 winning favourites in the last 11 years Only 1 winner in the last decade has carried a penalty 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 4 of the last 12 winners had ran in the Dante Stakes Wrotham Heath looks to be Sir Henry Cecil’s number one string based on jockey bookings even though he is 13lb inferior to Stipulate going into the race. But, having said that he was a very impressive winner on the Derby card and does hold an entry in the Irish Derby. He had looked a Derby contender after winning his maiden at two but ran into a nice horse on his reappearance at Newbury and then looked a non-stayer hen stepped up to 1m4f at Newmarket next time. Back down in trip he won a shade more cosily that the official margin suggests at Epsom and he therefore looks to have plenty to offer tomorrow. Also in the Khalid Abdulla colours is Starboard who looked a bright prospect when slamming his rivals at Redcar on only his second start last season. He flopped when odds-on in a 3-runner affair at Newmarket on his reappearance but looked much better when stepped up to 10f at Doncaster next time. He could have gone down the King Edward VII route but connections have opted to keep him at 1m2f for the moment, no doubt with one eye on his Eclipse entry. Most Improved bounced back to win the St James’s Palace on Tuesday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see TALES OF GRIMM run a big race tomorrow. An impressive maiden winner on his sole start at two when he had the decent Firdaws and the ill-fated The Nile in second and third, he had been touted as a possible 2000 Guineas winner in the spring. But he didn’t make his comeback until the end of May when he ran an encouraging race to finish 3rd to Cogito in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown; 2L behind Stipulate. He looked plenty fresh enough that day and Ryan Moore had to settle him right at the back of the field. Once asked for an effort he picked up nicely, staying on well to grab 3rd place. That should have knocked the edge off him and assuming he settled better, he is entitled to go close. 5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have each won 3 of the last 11 renewals Only 2 winning favourites in the last 11 years (shortest priced winner 9/2) 11 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 10 of the last 12 winners were officially rated at least 87 None of the last 10 winners carried more than 8st 13lb 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least once earlier in the season Fennell Bay beat his older rivals at Sandown on Saturday but a mile looks to be more like his trip and therefore Prussian might prove the better of the 2 Johnston runners. This tough Dubai Destination filly was progressing nicely this year, winning her first 2 starts before a lack-lustre effort on soft ground at Nottingham. That left everyone scratching their heads but she bounced back to form with another strong performance when winning at Redcar earlier this month. She is also untried over the trip but has looked as if she would get it and therefore has to come into consideration for a trainer that has such a good record in the race. Another apparent second string, Pilgrims Rest is another that looks to have strong credentials. Richard Hughes rode him when winning on his reappearance at Newbury and again when winning at Leicester later that month. He is 12lb higher tomorrow than when recording the first of those 2 victories but quite why Hughes has got off to ride Rougemont who has 9st 7lb is a bit of a mystery to me. Gabrial The Great looked a nice colt when winning easily on his reappearance at Newcastle in April. He stepped up on that next time when chasing home the potentially very smart Rosslyn Castle as Chester’s May meeting. The trip won’t hold and concerns for this son of Montjeu although it remains to be seen if he will be as effective on a faster surface. ANOMOLY produced 2 solid efforts last season before making a very eye-catching reappearance at Nottingham last month. Very nicely bred, this Pivotal colt made all for a thoroughly convincing victory which had connections thinking of the Derby at the time. That would have been a very big ask for a maiden winner but this does look much more sensible as he looks to have a bright future stating from a mark of 93

[jtw1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June Unfortunately the same result as last year with PLANTEUR unp ... hindsight dictates that SO YOU THINK was the best even money shot you could have wished for !!!:lol Thursday - 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 14/16 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old , only DRUM TAPS and YEATS have won aged 7+ in the past 60 years. 13/15 with a rating were rated 111+ 13/16 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 8 had won. 15/16 had won at least 4 races [inc NH] 13/14 started at 11/1 or under 13/16 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level Age removes the 7yo ASKAR TAU. Ratings remove BRIDGE OF GOLD , CAUCUS , NEHAAM and GULF OF NAPLES. COLOUR VISION has naver won above G3. Of the 3 left OPINION POLL has yet to win a G1 and was beaten fair and square by FAME AND GLORY in last year's renewal and i can make no case for him to reverse that result this time around. However the other Irish runner could well give the Fav most to do here , SADDLERS ROCK , has ran only 7 times and improved for every run last season culminating in winning the Doncaster Cup from OPINION POLL [albeit with a generous 3yo allowance] He made his seasonal re-appearance in the Listed Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown where he finished 3rd of 4 in what was a very slow run race on Heavy ground , surely blew away the cobwebs and this would appear to be the target . SO YOU THINK will be a tough nut to crack and could be the best even money shot since SO YOU THINK ....:loon....but i'm going to go for an upset in the shape of SADDLERS ROCK , 10pts @ 4/1 bog

[robertob]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 15.45 Ascot: Colour Vision @ 9/2 Paddy Power Super competitive and interesting Gold Cup this year, with four top class stayers in the field. Fame And Glory is too short for me, though. He's a well deserved favourite, but I'm happy enough to oppose him at odds-on and to side with Godolphin's Colour Vision who is the value in the race for me. He improved massively last year for Mark Johnston, winning three races and finishing a creditable third in the Cesarewitch under top-weight. He ended the season on a high, chasing Fame and Glory home in the Long Distance Cup at Champions day. He didn't had the clearest of runs in my mind but did very well to get beaten in third place by only 1¼ lengths in the end. A massive performance in my mind. I've been even more impressed though when he made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in May. He came from last to first and the way he pulled clear of some really good horses was just breathtaking. He looks bigger and stronger - simply improved - this year and looks still open for improvement. This Kempton form looks rock-solid as runner-up Red Cadeaux won the Yorkshire Cup- and finished 2nd to St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup since. It is probably not the most important thing, yet interesting to see Frankie Dettori opting for Colour Vision and against Opinion Poll, despite the fact that he won many good raced on Opion Poll and already two Group 3's this year, I remember Frankie also saying how much he admires Opinion Poll. 17.00 Ascot: Tales Of Grimm @ 11/2 VC I really like this lightly raced colt, he made it into my notebook when winning in impressive fashion on his debut last year. He's been only seen once since then, when making his seasonal reappearance at Sandown three weeks ago. He finished a fine third while showing sings of greenness but also ability to stay further when running on well in the closing stages. So the step up in trip to 1m 2f for the first time looks sure to suit. This will be only his third ever race tomorrow and I expect loads of improvement. He's certainly the most interesting runner and could be easily more than just a decent Group 3 horse. The Tercentenary Stakes is not a the most difficult Group 3 in the world as it's lacking a real star or outstanding horse. With possible improvement to come after his first run this season, expected improvement for experience and step up in distance I think Tales Of Grimm could be the horse that has too much to offer for his rivals here. Only the high draw is a slight worry for me.

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 2.30 Ascot: Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (5f) It’s a terrific renewal with a few in with a squeak but I do like the chances of Cay Verde from the Channon yard. His form stacks up nicely and the trainer has booked his old jockey Craig Williams who’s over here at the moment. Obviously Hannon has to be respected but Mister Marc could be the one to concentrate on despite Hughes riding Annunciation. Selections; 2pts Cay Verde 100/30 Paddy Power 1pt Mister Marc 7/1 BetVictor Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--channon-to-take-opener-with-cay-verde-on-day-three-at-ascot

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 4.25 Ascot: Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (1m) One of the trickiest 3yo handicaps of the season the Britannia Stakes has provided us with yet another puzzle and I’m happy to go along with the trends that seem to throw up the winners from time to time. Frog Hollow looks pretty solid with the draw a big help and fairly weighted. On the other side of the track we have Forest Row in stall 4 and Fast Or Free in box 6, both fit the trends nicely and either would be suitable options in a fascinating contest. Selections; 2pts Frog Hollow 11/1 Bet365 1pt Forest Row 16/1 William Hill 1pt Fast Or Free 8/1 BetVictor Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--frog-hollow-can-land-britannia-puzzle-from-favoured-draw

[BillyHills]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 5.35 Ascot: King George V Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (1m4f) Another very competitive race to end proceedings with and I’m sticking with the profile that has done so well in this race before and that’s those with few runs and the promise of much more to come. Michael Stoute has been quiet this season but knows how to win this race and Uriah Heep looks decent value to me. Godolphin do well in these top handicaps and their Anomaly could have more to offer and give them something to cheer about. Selections: 2pts Anomaly 9/1 William Hill 1pt Uriah Heep 14/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--godolphin-to-get-some-cheer-from-anomaly-in-day-three-finale

[Gavlar17]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 15:05 Ascot - The Fugue - 10pts win @ 2/1 BOG (BetVictor) Although The Fugue didn't manage to win The Oaks, I don't think there would be many people who would argue that this wasnt the most eye catching horse and probably the best horse in the race. It was bumped around a lot that day and ended up at the back of the field but was absolutely flying home toward the finish and an unlucky 3rd. LTO was its first run over this distance so I wouldn't be surprised to see any further improvement as the trip was absolutely no problem in The Oaks. She had 4 of today's opponents behind and 1 in front that day and given the problems The Fugue met in running I reckon if she is gets a clear run there will be no problems beating that lot again. The Fugue races off the same mark tomorrow and, should the rain come, I think will manage a bit of cut in the ground okay (4th and staying on in 1000 guineas on good/soft ground on first appearance of the season). Both jockey and trainer are in fine form at the moment with William Buick operating at a 30.23% and John Gosden a 20.45% win rates over the past 14 days. Ive copied a section from William Buicks blog on AtTheRaces where he talks about The Fugue and her chances:

I’ve got another of my leading ladies to look forward to on Thursday with arguably the unluckiest filly around in THE FUGUE in the Ribblesdale Stakes. There’s little doubt in my mind that she would have won the Oaks last time had she not been broadsided after three furlongs and lost a lot of ground and momentum. She produced a magnificent effort to run a close third and while it’s usually tough for a filly to run at Royal Ascot after the Oaks, there is an extra week this year which has made it possible for her to have a crack at the Royal Meeting. It’s a race in which her mother, also trained by my boss John Gosden, was only inched out in 2005 when the race was run at York so I don’t think there is a stamina issue over this track. I’ve also got a handy draw near the rail which should enable me to hold a good position from the kick. The ground was riding a little on the dead side on Tuesday and was quickening up all the time on Wednesday which is ideal for her. Like all those who are getting kitted out for ladies day I really want the rain to keep away because she likes good ground. As for the quality of opposition, I don’t think there would have been many better turnouts for this race because the Oaks second, third, fourth, seventh, ninth and eleventh are all lining up.

Im really hoping this filly gets the win she very well deserves whilst bringing home a few beans in the process. Best of luck for day 3 everyone.

[Edberg]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 4.35 Royal Ascot BRITANNIA STAKES FROG HOLLOW 4pts win @ 10/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Frog Hollow made a good start of his career at 2 winning twice and finishing twice close third (beaten 1.25L and 1/2L). Those good efforts gave him a mark of 90 and he started his handicap career on the 5th of May making his seasonal debut in a class 2 handicap over 1m at Newmarket (good to soft). The grey had been gelded during the winter and the trainer Ralph Beckett was not sure about his race fitness first time out still he ran a very good race to finish 3rd of 11 beaten just 2.5L by Rewarded who was receiving 7lb that day. The form of that race is really strong as Rewarded ran well also off a 6lb higher mark next time out and is now rated 90 (7lb higher than when winning that race at Newmarket), the second Archbishop finished 2nd in a Group 3 in France (beating among the others 112-rated Coupe De Ville) and is now rated 107 (19lb higher), the 4th of that race at Newmarket Mr Red Clubs ran well next/last time out (5th in a Listed won by Aljamaaheer) and is now rated 95 (4lb higher) and is a 5-time winner and also the 7th Ghost Protocol and the 8th Devdas ran very well next time out. So Frog Hollow did very well to finish 3rd in that little hot race and did it in good style as he was coming for way back with a very good finish in the last furlong (the first two were way closer to the pace than him). Three weeks later Frog Hollow ran again in the Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (£37,5k to the winner) over 1m on firm ground at Haydock finishing 4th in a race won by Gabrial (very good 5th, even if racing keenly and short of room in a key moment, in the St James's Palace Stakes here at Royal Ascot on Tuesday). Gabrial was already rated 10lb higher (101 vs 91) after that impressive win in the Silver Bowl but will now go close to 110 more or less. Frog Hollow was held up in rear once again at Haydock and made his headway 2f out but was hampered by the winner who went across him in a key moment of the race (not a big damage but still) and stayed on well to finish 4th 5L behind the winner. Last year's winner of the Silver Bowl Sagramor went on to win the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot so that form is very important in the contest of this race. This is a tough handicap as usual but Frog Hollow stands a very big chance racing off the same mark (90) once again, with two important runs under his belt, the blinkers on for the first time, a good draw in stall nr. 31, back on an easier surface (didn't appreciate much the firm ground at Haydock last time out), with the stiff mile of Royal Ascot that seems tailor made for this talented gelding, Ralph Beckett's yard in good form (3 winners and 8 seconds from the last 20 runners in the last fortnight) and a top jockey in Jim Crowley on board (56 wins from 312 runs for a 18% strike rate for the jockey this year and Crowley won the most important race of his life so far right here at Royal Ascot one year ago when Prohibit won the King's Stand).

[Lars]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June KAILANI (15:05) didn’t really live up to expectations in the Oaks when behind a few of these but she was unsuited by the quick ground alongside the unique nature of Epsom itself. With rain expected, a more conventional track in front of her and likely more positive tactics employed, she looks a good bet to overturn the last time out form of the likes of The Fugue and Shirocco Star. She’s a thrice raced filly who won well in an average Yarmouth maiden last season on her only start in 2011, before reappearing in fine style at Newmarket in the listed Pretty Polly Stakes. She won by 7 lengths on the soft ground and although she may have been flattered a little bit with the margin of victory, she definitely looked a filly to continue to improve, especially when upped further in distance. Unsurprisingly she was supplemented for the Oaks on the back of that performance but she didn’t make much of an impression, finishing 7th, beaten six lengths. They went no pace that day, so she was obviously going to struggle due to being held-up and was hampered quite badly early on too. It was a run easy to excuse for a whole number of reasons and she returns here looking underestimated in the market. The rain forecast will definitely suit, but even if it doesn’t then I don’t necessarily think that would be the end of her chances, she’ll unlikely encounter such traffic problems and I can’t imagine such hold-up tactics being employed again anyway. She’s a bit unproven at this 1m4f trip but shapes as if she’ll stay, and at these sorts of prices, is well worth a bet. I have her at around a 5/1 chance and it is fair to say that if she came here without having run in the Oaks, then she could well have been that sort of price today. The Fugue has a solid form chance but won’t be ideally suited by rain and I’m not entirely convinced she’ll see out a testing 1m4f quite as well as people think. With all this in mind, Kailani is a nice enough bet, especially so if the rain does fall. ENERGIZER (17:00) is hilariously overpriced, most likely due to it being trained in Germany and there being a couple in this race who have big reputations to live up to. I’m not particularly afraid of anything in this contest and with the step up in trip likely to suit the foreign challenger, he has every chance in this Group 3 contest. He’s fairly lightly-raced, having won a listed event on debut before disappointing in his next two juvenile starts. He’s certainly improved for the winter though (as many out of Monsun do), narrowly defeated in a Group 3 on seasonal reappearance (stayed on strongly, got going too late) before a similar scenario occurred in the German 2000 Guineas, again getting going too late on. Although there’s plenty of speed on his dam’s side, he looks likely to appreciate the step up to 1m2f and with his sire’s progeny usually benefitting from middle-distances, further improvement looks possible. He’s the highest rated in the field and it’s surprising that he’s been priced up at these double figure odds. True, there are the likes of Starboard and Tales of Grimm, who are being touted as Group animals and will likely show this sort of form in time, but Energizer is almost double the price it should be. His German 2000 Guineas form is hardly disrespectful, he shapes as if the step up in trip will suit and won’t mind the rain that’s forecast. He isn’t the most likely winner but is a fair value bet at double figure odds. ANOMALY (17:35) could be seriously well-handicapped after winning his maiden comfortably at Newmarket, with the form of that race already receiving a significant boost. The Godolphin trained runner has faced some quite smart animals when running in maidens, bumping into Cubanita on his second start (who has proved herself to be above average) before winning his third start in decent fashion. He was 4.25 lengths clear of 2nd and a further 7 clear of the horse in 3rd, who looks a very interesting middle-distance prospect having won last week. It was certainly a very interesting performance by the selection, given he seems to have an action that may be suited to softer ground, but handled the quicker surface with aplomb. With previous soft ground form, there should be no problems however the ground ends up and I do think there’s plenty of progression still to come from this horse. He looks ideally suited to the step up to middle distances given his running style, was considered for the Derby at one stage and looks like an animal that could have a three figure rating not before long. This of course is a competitive heat, with plenty others who could well improve far past their current rating, but it’s difficult to ignore the chances of Anomaly here. My one main concern would be that his sire only has a 3.8% strike-rate at Ascot, but one of those winners was Immortal Verse in Group Company and plenty of his progeny have run well in big races here, so perhaps they win if good enough. With Silvestre De Sousa likely to be riding with plenty of confidence after a three-timer at Kempton last night, Anomaly is worth backing up until the 6/1 mark. Bets 15:05 Ascot – Kailani; 2pts @ 17/2 BetVictor (bog) 17:00 Ascot – Energizer; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog) 17:35 Ascot – Anomaly; 2pts @ 9/1 Betfred, William Hill (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 2.30 Ascot - 3pts win Ahern @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) I got this race down to the first four in the market in the end and I'm siding with David Barron's runner, who is currently the 2nd favourite for this 5f contest. Although the favourite does have very strong claims, having been pretty impressive in wins which have been franked but I think Ahern could be anything really and could take a bit of beating. He's only had one run so far and connections must have thought a fair bit of him to throw him into a conditions race on his first start. He was facing horses with experience and all of his rivals had previously won a race. He was slowly away but showed good pace to respond and get a decent sit. He looked pretty green throughout the contest really but when Graham Gibbons really got after him once he'd hit the front he extended really nicely and went on to score readily by 2 1/2l. The stiff finish here will suit on that and there was cut in the ground that day. He was comfortably ahead of Satsuma - 7th of 27 in the Queen Mary yesterday (and 3rd of 16 in group) - so there is some substance to the form and there was a further few lengths back to the third. Johnny Murtagh is a good jockey booking and although his draw possibly isn't ideal, this field isn't huge so it shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience and he should have plenty more to come. 4.25 Ascot - 2pts win Frog Hollow @ 12/1 (Hills) and 2pts win Lucky Henry @ 18/1 (Hills) Both of these horses competed in the same race behind Gabrial last time out - with that winner going on to run a very sound race in the St James' Palace stakes on Tuesday. Lucky Henry was 2nd that day and ran well, but my doubts over the 1m on this ground and the draw push me towards hedging my bets and going with a horse that did finish behind him, yet shapes as if this greater test will suit today and the blinkers are on for the first time. Lucky Henry is an interesting sort with only five runs under his belt and all of his runs have been pretty good. He returned to action this year when chasing home the decent Famous Poet and then could only manage 6th of 14 at Doncaster. However, he was a bit isolated widest of all and the yard had a very poor month in May. Although his run last time out did come late in that month, the yard had an appalling strike rate and are just shaping as if coming back to the boil over the last few days. That could bring out a bit more improvement. I have an inkling that this rain will give an advantage to those drawn high. It helps to be close to a rail in this contest and the relatively fresh ground here could prove crucial. Frog Hollow is berthed in stall 31 and represents a stable in form. He shapes like a stiff mile will suit and that the Haydock race on quick ground wasn't quite sufficient for him. Soft ground doesn't inconvenience and the testing track should suit today. Both of his efforts this season have been pretty good and the blinkers might just help him put his best foot forward. I think he has the components of a big run today and would be surprised if he isn't bang there so long as he is on the right part of the track. 5.00 Ascot - 3pts win Energizer @ 14/1 (Bet365) It is of course plausible that one of the lightly-raced progressive horses will take this but I don't see why the highest rated animal in the field is a 14/1 shot here and after five runs, we haven't seen the best of him yet either in my eyes. He has some high-class form in the book already and I doubt he's being sent over from Germany to make up the numbers. He's improved this season (hood applied) to run two very good races in Group events and looks to me like he's going to relish the conditions today. He finished well to be 2nd behind a horse who subsequently was beaten a neck in the French 2000 Guineas - taking a while to find his stride over 1m1/2f and he then ran a very reasonable 2 3/4l 4th to Caspar Netscher in the German Guineas. However, he really has been shaping like he needs further as he stayed on there but not at the pace to challenge. He shapes much more as a 1m2f horse than a miler and he gets that today with the softening ground no concern. He's by a stamina-influenced sire in Monsun so this step up should be no concern at all and I think it gives him a real live chance today. The hood is retained and he shouldn't be a 14/1 shot in my opinion at all. It is difficult to gauge foreign form but so long as he's travelled over okay I don't see why he shouldn't run a really big race today with conditions to suit. 5.35 Ascot - 2pts win Sparkling Portrait @ 16/1 (Bet365) A lot of this post is based around the fact that Richard Fahey's runner suffered from a wide trip throughout at Musselburgh last time out and therefore was better than the bare form. However, I should point out early on here that he has a very wide draw again today. I just hope that Paul Hanagan - on board for the first time - realises the situation and tries to get him tucked in a bit better today. If he gets a reasonable position then I think he's going to run a cracking race. He's been progressive in handicaps having landed a hat-trick before last time out (1 maiden, 2 handicaps) and this race often favours them towards the top of the weights. He finished off well over 1m2f on soft ground before being stepped up to 1m4f last time out. The combination of a sharp track, being forced very wide throughout, and being hampered with 2 1/2f to race contributed to a held 6th of 12 but not much more could have gone against him really and the return to a galloping track will help. He proved he stayed on that occasion, though, and the softening ground is in his favour today. Track position will be crucial but he is a horse who can be held-up so he could be switched off out the back allowing him to get tucked in today, and fingers crossed he can weave his way through at the business end.

[switzerland]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June The Ascot Gold Cup I've twisted and turned this race over all week and I've come to the point where I find it hard to oppose Fame and Glory. We always knew he was a class horse but last year he proved that he stayed the trip and handled the track. Looking back at the race he stayed better than anything else. Some ease in the ground doesn't put me off. This would have been his primary target all year as Ballydoyle bid to continue their tradition in the race. He's a real fighter and he will have to under-perform or something will have to step up markedly to get in front of him. The two I had planned to oppose him with were Sadlers Rock and Opinion Poll. Sadlers Rock is clearly a very good horse. I saw him at Leopardstown lto and he ran really well in terrible conditions. He was conceding a lot of weight and the ground was awful on that occasion. He'll come on a bundle for that run. He would prefer better ground but I don't think conditions today will cause him too much trouble. Opinion Poll appears to be the Godolphin second string but I would favour him over Colour Vision here. He's a very consistent horse and finished 2nd to F&G at the track twice last season. Sadlers Rock had his measure at Doncaster but there's possibly not that much between them back at Ascot over this trip. As for Colour Vision - I'm taking view that Godolphin horses are running better on the all-weather surfaces than they are on turf (just have a look at the Kempton results last night). Colour Vision was ultra impressive when winning at Kempton last month but I have doubts about his ability to reproduce that on turf. Plus he has never run beyond 2miles so there has to be a question mark about him staying. 4pts Win - Fame & Glory - Evens (Generally available) 0.5pt Tricast - F&G, Sadlers Rock, Opinion Poll 0.5pt Tricast - F&G, Opinion Poll, Sadlers Rock

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 3.05 Ascot - 4pts win The Fugue @ 5/2 (Bet365) I think John Gosden's filly has become a fair price now the rain has come rather but with the more sinister stuff not forecast until after the Ribblesdale, I don't think it will prove too testing and she can still come out on top. I don't think she absolutely needs quick ground but it obviously helps. However, at 5/2 I think she's not a bad bet given she's clearly the one to beat for me. I was very keen on her for the Oaks even when she only had one run under her belt - her maiden victory - and her very sound run in the Guineas after a break with the ground on the soft side and not an ideal trip through the race only enhanced her Epsom credentials. She did well not to come down early on in the race and she lost ground and momentum which seemed crucial as she only went down narrowly in the end. William Buick believes she would have won and that gives her a favourite's chance here today. She couldn't have been much more impressive at York even if she perhaps didn't beat a right lot, and the return to a flatter track won't be a concern at all. So long as heaps of rain doesn't come before the race (doesn't appear like we're going to get buckets before 4pm) then I think she'll take all the beating. She has plenty of class and a nice combination of speed and stamina and she would be a 5pt bet on yesterday's ground, but the slight doubt makes me opt for slightly lower stakes.

[mowgli77]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June Ascot 3.05pm I agree with Lars here that Kailani looks to have a great chance and is a very fair price. I'm hoping Momentary can improve again and if it does it has to go close and form of its win has been franked since. Pink Damsel is the unknown quantity that could go well for Spencer. I like The Fugue but think the race is quite open and the price puts me off at the moment. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--momentary-and-kailani-taken-to-upstage-the-fugue-in-ribblesdale Ascot 3.45pm I really rate Fame and Glory, loads of proven group form and I don't fancy either of the Godolphin runners based on overall form. Saddler's Rock is lightly raced and could be anything, aimed specifically at this race and won't want the ground too soft. Looks to be some value at around 4-1 but Fame and Glory has been evens and could win like a long odds on chance later on. http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting--murtagh-and-oxx-to-grab-the-fame-and-the-glory-in-the-gold-cup Ascot 5.00pm This could easily be the race of the day and one for the notebooks as there will be plenty of future winners here. there are at least 3-4 with great chances and others that are open to plenty of improvement, including Mukhadram and Tales Of Grimm. Grandeur finishes its races well and gets a pull at the weights with Wrotham Heath. http://www.punterslounge.com/royal-ascot-betting--grandeur-could-reverse-form-with-wrotham-heath-if-ground-is-not-too-soft 2.30pm - Storm Moon is one of mine to follow but looks like an each way chance at huge odds. Possibly not good enough to take a race like this but might be a few pounds better on a softer surface. 4.25pm - One that stands out for me is Forest Row and I feel drawn 4 could be an advantage with horses possibly coming to the rails today on either side. it had the one run in April and has been kept off track since, similar to Prince Of Johanne yesterday. Fast Or Free also interests me from stall 6 for Haggas/Moore. 5.35pm - Niceofyoutotellme caught my eye last time out and I made a note to follow it next time out. It has an awful draw in stall 21 over a mile and a half but that gives it time to get a decent racing position before they turn for home if Martin Lane can break well and track across like Fallon did the other day on Most Improved. The race looks quite open and this looks a good bet at 18-1.

[robertob]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 14.30 Ascot: Ahern @ 5/1 Paddy Power Just had a proper look through this race and have to say I really like Ahern. I've been very impressed with his debut at Musselburgh three weeks ago. He ran very green there, lost a few lengths at the start but finished strongly to win in convincing fashion. He looks a nice, big colt, who should have learned plenty from his debut. That he won so well on good to soft ground that day at Musselburgh is a further advantage in my mind, so he probably won't mind the rain and the cut in the ground at Ascot today. With Johnny Murtagh in the saddle I'm expecting a big run.

[Lodge]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June Superb Tipping on Energizer Lars & BFR. Followed myself even if i didnt quite get as good price!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June Think there was a 15p rule 4 but will take the 12/1 or near enough. Badly needed to land a big one this week! Nice one Lars, too :ok

[cpo]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June Quality stuff lads :nana

[Lodge]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June

Think there was a 15p rule 4 but will take the 12/1 or near enough. Badly needed to land a big one this week! Nice one Lars, too :ok

Made up for The Fugue's 2nd anyway :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June And luck's out again. Tell me Sparkling Portrait wouldn't have won that.

[robertob]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June

15.45 Ascot: Colour Vision @ 9/2 Paddy Power Super competitive and interesting Gold Cup this year, with four top class stayers in the field. Fame And Glory is too short for me, though. He's a well deserved favourite, but I'm happy enough to oppose him at odds-on and to side with Godolphin's Colour Vision who is the value in the race for me. He improved massively last year for Mark Johnston, winning three races and finishing a creditable third in the Cesarewitch under top-weight. He ended the season on a high, chasing Fame and Glory home in the Long Distance Cup at Champions day. He didn't had the clearest of runs in my mind but did very well to get beaten in third place by only 1¼ lengths in the end. A massive performance in my mind. I've been even more impressed though when he made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in May. He came from last to first and the way he pulled clear of some really good horses was just breathtaking. He looks bigger and stronger - simply improved - this year and looks still open for improvement. This Kempton form looks rock-solid as runner-up Red Cadeaux won the Yorkshire Cup- and finished 2nd to St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup since. It is probably not the most important thing, yet interesting to see Frankie Dettori opting for Colour Vision and against Opinion Poll, despite the fact that he won many good raced on Opion Poll and already two Group 3's this year, I remember Frankie also saying how much he admires Opinion Poll. 17.00 Ascot: Tales Of Grimm @ 11/2 VC I really like this lightly raced colt, he made it into my notebook when winning in impressive fashion on his debut last year. He's been only seen once since then, when making his seasonal reappearance at Sandown three weeks ago. He finished a fine third while showing sings of greenness but also ability to stay further when running on well in the closing stages. So the step up in trip to 1m 2f for the first time looks sure to suit. This will be only his third ever race tomorrow and I expect loads of improvement. He's certainly the most interesting runner and could be easily more than just a decent Group 3 horse. The Tercentenary Stakes is not a the most difficult Group 3 in the world as it's lacking a real star or outstanding horse. With possible improvement to come after his first run this season, expected improvement for experience and step up in distance I think Tales Of Grimm could be the horse that has too much to offer for his rivals here. Only the high draw is a slight worry for me.

Finally the first Ascot winner of the week for me. Colour Visision with a massive will to win and a strong- but also controversial ride by Frankie. SP 6/1 makes all a bit nicer. Tales of Grimm was disappointing. Maybe the ground was a problem... great to see a German horse winning it, though!