Jump Racing - Saturday 16th June

[Edberg]

5.05 Hexham MAN OF PRINCIPLES 4pts to win @ 5/1 bog (Bet365 and Skybet) I had written this 5 weeks ago: « 3:00 » Fakenham TUE 8 MAY 2012 TOTEPOOL HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (5yo+ 0-95) Winner £3,249 Good To Soft 2m5f110y Number of runners: 11 MAN OF PRINCIPLES 4pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Bet365) Man Of Principles is a 9yo gelding trained by Stuart Coltherd since last June. The horse won a Irish PTP (29 Nov 2009, 3m, heavy) but under rules he was able to collect only 4 seconds (over 2m4f-2m7f, all on ground soft/heavy) in 12 starts over hurdles in Ireland (rated up to 100). His first outs in UK were pretty poor (racing off 100 and 95 in handicap hurdles) but with the new year (2012) Man Of Principles was switched back over fences (he had already jumped the higher obstacles in his last three starts in Ireland) but his three outs ended with these results: UR-F-UR. Still he had been showing a bit of quality in those efforts first of all that he loved to lead (led in all those races as he's been doing in most of his career starts thus far) but his jumping was still to be improved a lot. Two months ago Coltherd tried to drop him in trip and booked Ryan Mania for the ride (together with that jockey he had been showing his best at Newcastle on his second last start when still comfortably leading before falling in a race won by Tipsy Dara over Shadow Boxer). Racing over 2m (Carlisle, heavy ground, 8 Mar 2012) helped this front-runner mainly to get his confidence back and even if he was badly outpaced when the winner kicked on, he kept on gamely to finish second just 2L behind the winner so he showed that it wasn't the trip the problem. And that was confirmed next time out (Hexham, 2m5f, good to soft, 15 Mar 2012) when he finally had a clear round of jumps and bolted up, surely helped by a mistake of the favourite 2 out but he made all and was eased down in the run-in and still able to win by 33L over the Sue Smith-trained Cloudy Dawn with Sam Patch 4th and beaten 46L. Connections put him back on track just one week later (Carlisle, 2m, good to soft, 22 Mar 2012) since the horse had been was hoisted 17lb for that easy win (off 74) and they wanted to to race him soon as he had just to carry a 7lb penalty and Jason Maguire was booked for the ride but Man Of Principles was soon taken off his feet and was given some sharp reminders with a full circuit to go and he was tailed off when eventually calling it a day. He will be bang up against it in future unless the handicapper has second thoughts. Surely a day off and three races in two weeks were probably too much. The horse enjoyed a full month off and came back on track at Hexham over 2m7f (heavy, 23 Apr 2012) partnered again with Ryan Mania who soon sent him ahead and even if that wasn't a clear round of jumps on very testing conditions the horse made a strong selection and kept the lead till the second last fence with only Tipsy Dara able to stay close throughout. The grey mare of the Alexanders took advantage of a bad jump of her rival at the second last and kicked for home and Man Of Principles trying to reply slipped up on the final bend and it was game over. Sam Patch was coming strong from behind so he could have probably lost also the second (was looking tired) but it was gonna be a pretty decent performance off his new mark of 91 and surely 2m7f on those very testing conditions seemed a bit too far for him. Back to 2m5f on ground less testing but still soft enough and over a track which usually gives a big advantage to the front-runners with Ryan Mania back on board Man Of Principles stands a very big chance in this race in my opinion given a clear round of jumps of course. According to me Mania has to help his horse to stay focused on his jumping as the three market leaders are not that special. The big favourite at the moment is Farewallatmidnight who won in nice style over this C&D (good to soft) beating Ballyoliver (who won on hist last start) one month ago. She is still very lightly raced as this is gonna be just her 4th start over fences and 11th overall so she could well be able to keep improving and she surely loves this track as her only other success (over hurdles) came in her only other start here at Fakenham (2m4f, good to soft, 30 Jan 2011) which was her debut over hurdles. Still she has now to face a 7lb hike for her last win and was beaten 13L by Sam Patch (2nd and 3rd) in her previous start (6 days before her win) at Sedgefield (2m6f, soft) and Sam Patch had been beaten 46L by Man Of Principles on his previous start (Hexham, 2m5f, good to soft, 15 Mar 2012, off a 5lb higher mark) and was well behind (but could have possibly beaten him) when Man Of Principles slipped up on the final bend last time out (23 Apr) at Hexham (2m7f, heavy) with Man Of Principles racing off his new mark of 91 (17lb higher than the one he had when he beat Sam Patch by 46L) and Sam Patch off 77, the same he had 20 days before when be beat 13L Farewallatmidnight who was then still racing off 82 (90 today). Surely a collateral line which enhances my idea that Man Of Principles needs a clear round of jump and can't be that scared of these rivals. The other big danger should be Springfield Raki who was the favourite of the race won by Farewallatmidnight over this C&D one month ago and finished 4th beaten 22L that day. He won already here at Fakenham but over 3m1f (18 Mar 2011), which was his only win over fences and only success in the last 3 years, and even if his mark is dropped to 95 (the same he had last time out here) and Steve Gollings' horses seem all in good form at the moment (the trainer had a nice winner on the flat yesterday) he has still a lot to prove to reverse that form with Farewellatmidnight over a trip probably a bit too short for him even if last time out he was a bit better finishing 4th but beaten just 7.25L by Ballyoliver at Market Rasen over 2m4f (soft) racing 3lb out of the handicap and without the 10lb claimer on board (booked again for the today's ride). Phoenix Des Mottes seems the third and last big rival of my selection in this race. The horse of the Cornwalls has finished worse than 4th only once in his last 7 starts and finally achieved his 2nd victory over fences (his first came in March 2010 at Southwell over 3m1f on good ground) winning over 2m4f at Stratford (good, 24 Mar) off 73 (second off the same mark on his previous out at Huntingdon over 3m on good to soft). Upped to 79 /78 today) Phoenix Des Mottes finished 4th of 6 last time out but was beaten 36L at Southwell over 2m5f (good to soft) and when he won at Stratford he beat only three horses and all have been racing pretty bad both before and after that race. So Man Of Principles is not an easy horse to ride but this looks a race tailor made for him if he can complete 16 good jumps over these fences and it's a very valuable bet at current prices. Imho he didn't handle the track and once lost the lead he faded tamely to finish 6th tailed off. Man Of Principles ran just one more time since that race at Fakenham and it was 2 weeks ago at Cartmel (2m4f) where he found a sound surface under his feet which he doesn't handle at all (his PTP success, his 4 seconds over hurdles in Ireland and his win and second over fences in UK in March were all on good soft/soft/heavy). Last time he ran over C&D he bolted up by 33L (racing off 77) and last race here at Hexham (over 3m1f so 4f farther than this) he was very unlucky to slip up in the last bend when would have been a clear second (racing off 91). Ryan Mania was partnering him for his second at Carlisle, his easy win over C&D and that unlucky effort over 3m1f here at Hexham in April and the jockey is back in his saddle for today's race. The ground is officially heavy which is another big plus, his mark has dropped from 91 to 86 which surely helps and in this small field (7 runners) he should be able to dominate which is another plus. His main opponent is Fog Patches who finished second on his last two starts at Perth and Cartmel and his third last outing was here at Hexham over 3m1f in that race where Man Of Principles led and slipped up in the last bend. He was then sent-off as the 7/4 favourite of the race but didn't jump well and when already well beaten was pulled up. Man Of Principles was giving him 1lb that day and the difference increased to 2lb for today's race but that won't make the difference of course. Surely the Lucinda Russell-trained 6yo is in form now but his last two good efforts came on good ground and in the past never performed at that level with cut in the ground and in his previous visit here (Nov 2011) he finished 5th and second last beaten almost 30L. Sheepclose was beaten 2L in third in a Sedgefield novices' handicap chase last time out (17 days ago) and if able to build on that effort could go close but his profile is more than patchy, all his best efforts came at Sedgefield and there are big concerns about the ground. Treehouse is the only other runner who won here at Hexham but that success, as all his 4 chase wins, came over 3m1f and this trip seems a bit too short for him. Hist last win came in April and the previous two and the following two efforts read: PF (pulled up and fell) so he's far from reliable. The other three runners seem to have just a small chance and all in all this seems a big chance for my selection if able to dominate and jump soundly.