World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

[Fedar]

Hey, I have a question addressed to somebody with closer impressions from the football in the region.This weekend there are the qualifiers in this zone and i am interested in two particular games: - USA - Antigua and Barbuda - Mexico - Gayana. I am planning to play them in a combo of handicaps, looking to reach a total coefficient of 1.50 (-1.5 for both Mexico and US will do). And I am planning to put a very big stake on it to make up for the meager coefficients. I know that at first sight these do not seem any value at all. But from my impressions about CONCACAF, I have noticed that both Mexico and the US usually crash their opponents at home (probably with the rare exception of the few decent local sides, such like Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica etc.). Antigua/Barbuda and Gayana seem to me like football dwarfs who will probably be beaten very badly away from home against the two mastodons of the region for whom this will be the start of the campaign. Of course, given that I plan to put very big stakes on it plus combination of both games, I won't be looking for very large handicaps which sometimes might be risky (dominant side slowing down the tempo after scoring a few quick goals) - just a secure two goal difference. My problem is that the information on both Guyana and Antigua/Barbuda is really scarce. They had very few games against relatively decent sides and the majority of their matches is against other football dwarfs, hence, no conclusion may be drawn. I did not manage to find any games of the two sides against either Mexico and the US. I have made some huge profits with this strategy: solid sides against complete and utter outsiders (San Marino likes), combo of few games, huge stakes, low coefficient, not too big handicaps. But now I am being cautious because of the lack of reliable info. So, I am looking for anybody with more insider info to tip me about it?!!

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF I agree with you. I know a little about this area, but probably not that much more than you. I think there is a massive quality difference here, these teams really are minnows. Their players are drawn from the domestic leagues, English non-league and a few players from English football league. I would not be surprised by 5+ goal margins, depending on how it takes for USA and Mexico to get the first goal and how much they can be bothered. Was thinking of doing a -2AH for both games, but only 365 seem interested and at the moment they have taken down the AH market. EH offers less value; bigger margins for them. For games like this 365 seem to constantly suspend and adjust the AH market, I think they are worried about getting things wrong. Probably a shrewd move on their part.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF Indeed, the bookies try to block any real value in this games in order to tempt more inexperienced player to go for very large handicaps (-4; -5 or so) with lots of money, which I believe is a wrong strategy. Since for me such games between powerful sides and minnows are very profitable betting niche if used reasonably, I have found exactly two ways to extract value from them: 1. Live Betting. It works in the cases where the "Big Favorite" starts very slowly the game, and then intensifies suddenly the tempo after the 30-35th minute. In such case, a really great value can be made. However, this strategy has three flaws: - in most of the cases the Big Favorite scores early which turns the strategy void. - it is difficult to get the "right moment" when the team starts to really increase the pressure. - it is still risky, because after wasting about 30 minutes, it is not unlikely that the Big Favorite does not reach the desired value threshold in the end (3 or more goals for instance). 2. Betting Big Money on a combination of events with a extremely low risk. It is about reaching a low coefficient of about 1.40-1.50 with very low risk. You cannot get it from a single "David-Goliat" game, because the low risk events in such games are priced much lower. But if you combine let's say two such games you can reach the desired 1.40-1.50 coefficients. Of course, in order to make profit on it, you have to play big money. By the way, if you look in retrospective at the HOME games of Barcelona and Real Madrid this season in the Primera and the Cup of Spain, you will see that this strategy would have worked perfectly well. You take account only of home games in Spain of these two mastodons, because away games, as well as Euro tournaments, always involve more risk. Next, you exclude from the list the home games against the toughest other sides in the league, which also involve extra risk. I would put in this list: Atletico Madrid, Atletic Bilbao, Valencia, Malaga and Sevilla. Of course, under you own discretion, you might also exclude other games, given specific circumstances (e.g. Messi and Ronaldo injured). Then, you start two combine in a double column consecutive selected home games of Barca and Real, and play always "over 2.5". As far as I remember (correct me if wrong), the overs in most home games of Barca and Real were priced aroung 1.20-1.22, which in a combination reaches the desired coeff. threshold. And guess what the result of this strategy would have been?! It would have won basically any time this year. Even if you include the games against "the tough sides" in the list, it would have still been successful and profitable strategy.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

Hey, I have a question addressed to somebody with closer impressions from the football in the region.This weekend there are the qualifiers in this zone and i am interested in two particular games: - USA - Antigua and Barbuda - Mexico - Gayana.

Some bookies have put some handicap prices up now, both EH and AH. Quite a few of the Antigua players come from lower league English teams, which is a sign that the team is class or two below USA - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigua_and_Barbuda_national_football_team Having said that I'm wary about backing the USA on a handicap here. It's a similar story with Guyana - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana_national_football_team But again I'm cautious about backing Mexico with a large handicap. Looking back on over the USA's and Mexico's records against teams of similar standing to Antigua and Guyana on 'soccerway', they haven't thrashed this sort of team many teams - usually it's a win of between 1 and 3 goals.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF MPLouis, just to make clear - I never wrote that playing big handicaps on these two games is a good strategy. I said that I was going to pick very low risk/low coefficient events with big money. I took over 2.5 for both games at 1.22 (US) and 1.18 for a combined of 1.43. My bet won easily. However, as I watched both games (simultaneously for some part), I am certain that the bookies underestimated hugely Antigua and Guyana. I think they had almost no info about these teams (such like us - tipsters), and therefore, they decided to play very safe. I think that the bookies are now a bit sorry after they watched the games, because they could have put more attractive and decent values on the handicaps, attract much higher participation rate, and practically win a lot. Indeed, Mexico and US were far superior than their opponents, but Antigua and Guyana showed some quality and they definitely did not deserve to be put in the same pocket with the likes of San Marino and Lichtenstein in Europe by the bookies. Both teams were decent and tight in defense, and showed good organization of their play. If I have to make comparison with European football, I would say that Guyana and Antigua are somehow similar in class to teams like Moldavia and Albania, but definitely not the minnows. And such teams do not deserve a price of 1.16 for a -2 handicap. I would say that Antigua and Guyana are already at the level of the tough CONCACAF teams like Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Trinidad.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF Didn't really see Mexico v Guyana, but re. Antigua, I think they are below the level of

Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Trinidad, but above the level of true minnows. Congratulations on winning on over 2.5

:ok

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

Didn't really see Mexico v Guyana, but re. Antigua, I think they are below the level of

Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Trinidad, but above the level of true minnows. Congratulations on winning on over 2.5

:ok

I would agree with this. Didn't bet in the end, as I was at sea all day before the game, when I got to shore the prices were ridiculously low. The bet would have been a push anyway. These games showed that we shouldn't underestimate these sides too much. I was expecting bigger wins.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF For anyone interested, I put my thoughts on the USA v Antigua game on the other thread (after I saw most of it live) - http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/130530-WC2014-Qualifiers-Friday-8th-June-to-Wednesday-16th-June-2012?p=2172764#post2172764

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF Difficult to see much value in the CONCACAF prices for tonight's round of games. It appears to me that the bookies have priced them up more or less correctly, at least as far as I can tell. Guyana face Costa Rica at home; the Costa Ricans are 1.45 to win. Costa Rica are a very decent side, whose recent results include a win over Wales and a draw with Spain. They also beat the USA (away) not long ago. They are used to playing a better calibre of opposition and maybe will struggle with being favourites. Having drawn their opening game against El Salvador a win for them here is vital, as it looks likely to be a battle between them and El Salvador for 2nd place, with the USA also in their group. Their results against Caribbean teams are largely positive, except for a draw in Cuba last year; this was however a friendly game so it's difficult to know how much to read into it. They thrashed Cuba 5-0 in the last Gold Cup, and going back further beat T&T 4-0 and Guadeloupe 5-1. Home advantage is important in this region, both generally and in tonight's case. Guyana is notoriously difficult to get to (I think two plane journeys are necessary from Costa Rica) and it will be very hot and humid. You'd fancy Costa Rica to get the win but I guess there is enough of a chance that Guyana will hold them to a draw to make the 1.45 not quite tempting enough. With USA and Mexico facing tough trips to Guatemala and El Salvador respectively (both games will be played in front of large and vocal home supports), the other game which interested me was Panama at home to Cuba. Panama had a good result at the weekend, winning 2-0 in Honduras, and are ranked as the third best team in the region. Like Costa Rica they have had largely easy wins over teams like Cuba. I've watched Cuba before and despite having some skillful players they are naive defensively. They are not as good as Jamaica or T&T IMO. They lost 0-1 to Canada at the weekend, despite Canada goalie Hirchfeld being sent off for handling the ball outside the area. Canada were dominant and deserved the win. Cuba did win 3-0 in Panama in a friendly once but that was a weakened Panama squad that day, or so I've read. I'd strongly imagine Panama to win this one, perhaps with ease, but the bookies feel the same. I was tempted at 1.33 but now the price has fallen to 1.25 which is probably vaguely correct. -1.5AH is around 1.59.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

Difficult to see much value in the CONCACAF prices for tonight's round of games. It appears to me that the bookies have priced them up more or less correctly, at least as far as I can tell. ... the other game which interested me was Panama at home to Cuba. Panama had a good result at the weekend, winning 2-0 in Honduras, and are ranked as the third best team in the region. Like Costa Rica they have had largely easy wins over teams like Cuba. I've watched Cuba before and despite having some skillful players they are naive defensively. They are not as good as Jamaica or T&T IMO. They lost 0-1 to Canada at the weekend, despite Canada goalie Hirchfeld being sent off for handling the ball outside the area. Canada were dominant and deserved the win. Cuba did win 3-0 in Panama in a friendly once but that was a weakened Panama squad that day, or so I've read. I'd strongly imagine Panama to win this one, perhaps with ease, but the bookies feel the same. I was tempted at 1.33 but now the price has fallen to 1.25 which is probably vaguely correct. -1.5AH is around 1.59.

I saw a bit of Panama v Cuba, which finished 1-0. The game was full of wild running and shooting mainly from Panama. There were a lot of stoppages which disrupted the rhythm of the play and probably disadvantaged Panama. Cuba threatened occasionally. You get the idea Panama could have won by a big score if they'd calmed down, but calmness doesn't seem to be a feature with a lot of countries from this region. All last night's games were close except Costa Rica v Guyana.

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

I saw a bit of Panama v Cuba' date=' which finished 1-0. The game was full of wild running and shooting mainly from Panama. There were a lot of stoppages which disrupted the rhythm of the play and probably disadvantaged Panama. Cuba threatened occasionally. You get the idea Panama could have won by a big score if they'd calmed down, but calmness doesn't seem to be a feature with a lot of countries from this region. All last night's games were close except Costa Rica v Guyana.[/quote'] Thanks for this, it's useful to hear a bit about the game, as I didn't watch it myself.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF I watched most of Panama - Cuba (till 60th minute) as well. I must say it was a very weird game. In the first half, Panama was just passing thousands of times far away from Cuba's goal. They had only one chance to score. And here comes something very curious. I was following the movement of coefficients live on bet365, with the intention of probably stepping in at some point. Contrary to any logic, in the first half as time was passing by, the coefficients for Panama's victory, Panama's handicap, and Total Goals were falling rather than rising as common sense would suggest. It was even more weird, because Panama did not have any chances on goals and wasn't really pushing. The game started with 1.20 for Panama win, which by the 25th minute had fallen to 1.06 (?!!!!). It started to rise once again just after the 30th minute. At some point around the 20th minute, the coefficient for -2 AH Panama was 1.25, i.e. nearly the same as it was for simple host victory in the beginning. If anybody has any reasonable explanation for these movements, I would appreciate.

[RocknRolla]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF I've watched Salvador against Mexico in a shot and run game as well. It was fairly even game and I think Mexicans were lucky to get the win. Was impressed with Salvadorians and the way they've played. A thing to remember is that Salvador plays very motivated at home as the support from the stands is just unreal (and the pressure they put on guests). I remember 'we' were on Salvador handicap against Suriname last year which payed good and will keep an eye on their next home game against Guyana which is sheduled September. -The thing with live odds movement on 365 is just manipulating with a lot of mug punters who trying to make some quick money rather than sleeping at the time-just my oppinion Great contribution to the forum Fedar :clap:clap

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

I watched most of Panama - Cuba (till 60th minute) as well. I must say it was a very weird game. In the first half, Panama was just passing thousands of times far away from Cuba's goal. They had only one chance to score. And here comes something very curious. I was following the movement of coefficients live on bet365, with the intention of probably stepping in at some point. Contrary to any logic, in the first half as time was passing by, the coefficients for Panama's victory, Panama's handicap, and Total Goals were falling rather than rising as common sense would suggest. It was even more weird, because Panama did not have any chances on goals and wasn't really pushing. The game started with 1.20 for Panama win, which by the 25th minute had fallen to 1.06 (?!!!!). It started to rise once again just after the 30th minute. At some point around the 20th minute, the coefficient for -2 AH Panama was 1.25, i.e. nearly the same as it was for simple host victory in the beginning. If anybody has any reasonable explanation for these movements, I would appreciate.

I was watching the first half and also noticed the odds were moving very slowly against Panama although it was starting to look as though they might struggle. I think the only explanation is that 365 had money coming in on the Panama handicap, so the odds went down, or were slow to go up. Perhaps people were backing Panama in-play? They were the dominant side, and conceivably could have won by quite a few goals if they'd been more composed in attack instead of shooting as soon as they saw the goal. I'd like to second RocknRolla's thanks to you for your posts Fedar :ok

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF Yes the odds movement would certainly have been because Bet365 were receiving a lot of bets on Panama and would therefore stand to lose a lot if Panama had won. I believe that in games like this, i.e. not the sort of game many people watch, they are sensitive to even relatively small amounts of money being bet and the odds move about frequently.

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

-The thing with live odds movement on 365 is just manipulating with a lot of mug punters who trying to make some quick money rather than sleeping at the time-just my oppinion

I was one of the mugs not sleeping. :ok Still, it does not make much sense for me, because if so much money were bet on Panama, they would supposedly be placed before the game, or at least equally before and during the game. The thing is that the coefficient started to drop dramatically after the game had started and without any reason related to what was happening on the pitch. I am not into the conspiracy theories, but since I've seen this ****e happening so often in the Premier league of my country (Bulgaria), I always have some doubts when such things happen and non-Western European countries are involved.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF

I am not into the conspiracy theories' date=' but since I've seen this ****e happening so often in the Premier league of my country (Bulgaria), I always have some doubts when such things happen and non-Western European countries are involved.[/quote'] With all the stories about match-fixing in football there's often a suspicion that something funny is going on isn't there? In this case though, if people thought a big Panama win was 'certain' then a) they probably would have backed it before kick-off, and b) they were wrong :lol

[gamblingsports]

Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF My prediction is 1. Mexico 2. Costa Rica 3. USA 4. Panama