Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day

Stevet1859 · June 1, 2012

2:00 Epsom: Surely Speightful 1pt win 10/1 Paddy Power Not a lot of form to go on with any of these runners, however Surely Speightful ran pretty well on debut when not beaten far behind Graphic Guest at Ascot. That form has been franked with Graphic Guest winning well next time too at Windsor and looking Royal Ascot bound. Surely Speightful made no mistake herself next time and this speedy sort may be well suited to this track and if she gets away could take some pulling back. 2:40 Epsom: Beaten Up 1pt win 9/2 Boylesports Beaten Up finished behind St Nicholas Abbey at Meydan, however it might be worth giving Beaten Up who was highly progressive as a three year old another chance. Beaten Up acts on a firm surface and in past interviews William Haggas feels his colt could improve again as a four year old. The form of his three runs as a three year old all point to an even better season this time around and back on home soil he could go well. 2:55 Musselburgh: Mayoman 1pt win 9/1 Betfred Mayoman continues to improve since joining David O'Meara. He won with a little in hand last time out at Thirsk and while up in the handicap again, Lee Topliss takes off a handy three pounds. The visor is applied again and this course and distance winner is a sprinter in form who acts on the going. 3:15 Epsom: Judge 'N Jury 1pt win 10/1 William Hill Judge ' N Jury is approaching the veteran stage, yet he has been in a rich vein of form this season and showed he retains plenty of jest at York when holding off Secret Witness a couple of weeks ago. Judge 'N Jury has won off higher marks in the past and he seems to handle downhill courses well. Back in 2010 he was placed in this very race off 99 and his capable claimer takes off five pounds today. Judge 'N Jury is likely to be fast out of the stalls and could get near the stand rails. He is likley to make a bold bid from the front and may get caught by a hold up horse - then again he might not. 3:30 Musselburgh: Silver Blaze 1pt win 14/1 Betfred Silver Blaze could well improve for this step up in distance (as could plenty of the others). Silver Blaze won well at Southwell in April and just lost out here over nine furlongs in May. If he is a little closer to the pace today and does relish the extra trip then Alan Swinbank's charge should run a good race. Over the last five years Alan Swinbank's record with his middle distance horses is far more profitable than either his sprinters, milers, or stayers. 3:40 Haydock: Slade Power 1pt win 7/1 Boylesports Running second on the all weather at Dundalk is not usually eyecatching, however when the winner goes on to be runner up in the Irish 1000 Guineas then the form is worth a second look. Slade Power is lightly raced and there could be more to come. Maybe its unwise to take Slade Power's last run too literally, yet even before that her form would see her in the mix. Interesting that connections should travel over for this as they should know what it takes to be competitive in sprints this side of the Irish Sea. The Derby 4:00 Epsom: Astrology 1pt e/w 14/1 Bet Victor (1/4 123) Astrology was something of a quirky sort as a two year old, however there was nothing wrong with his run in the Dee Stakes when he pulled eleven lengths clear. Its hard to assess what he beat, as none of his rivals that day have run since. Astrology was not stopping at the line and the extra distance here is likely to be in Astrology's favour. Looking at that race at Chester in more detail the third Kingsdesire had previously beated Goldoni who went on to win the Derby Trial at Epson, which is encouraging. It would not be the first time that one of Aidan O'Brien's other runners has run well in a big race and Astrology has plenty of scope for improvement.

beaker1 · June 1, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4:00 Epsom - Investec Derby (Gr1) In the Investec Derby it usually pays to oppose any runner which was beaten on their most recent start as 16 of the last 19 winners had been successful last time out. That is quite a big negative to overcome so Cavaleiro (3rd), Minimise Risk (5th) and Rugged Cross (3rd) all look to have a big question to answer. However, it isnâ€™t totally impossible as proved firstly by New Approach in 2008 and Workforce two years later. It is rare for a horse to have the sort of versatility that is required to win over a mile in the 2000 Guineas and then step up to a mile and a half and win the Investec Derby only a month later. The iconic Nijinsky managed to do it 1970 and Nashwan followed suit in 1989 before the modern-great Sea The Stars added his name to the list of double winners in 2009. Three in 42 years really does highlight what a difficult achievement it is, so all eyes will be on Camelot tomorrow to see if he can add to his 2000 Guineas victory. Of all of the major Investec Derby trials, Yorkâ€™s Dante Stakes has been the strongest guide in recent years as North Light, Motivator and Authorized all won on the Knavesmire before their Derby victories and Workforce became the first horse to be beaten in the Dante to go on to land the following months Investec Derby. This yearâ€™s winner, Bonfire was very impressive in victory at York which is why he currently sits second in the betting. Leopardstownâ€™s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and Chesterâ€™s Dee Stakes have also proved good pointers in recent seasons but unfortunately the former is not represented this year. However, Astrology who was a runaway eleven length winner at Chester does line up this afternoon. The remaining trials might have produced Derby winners in days gone by but in recent seasons they havenâ€™t been as fruitful. Not since the legendary Shergar annihilated the field in 1981 has the Chester Vase winner gone on to victory in the Derby although in fairness to the race, recent winners Millenary, Hattan, Papal Bull, Soldier Of Fortune and Golden Sword have gone on to prove themselves more than useful horses. So this yearâ€™s winner Mickdaam would appear to have something to prove along with the horse that finished 5th at Chester Minimise Risk. Lingfield is similar to Epsom in that both are sharp, left handed tracks featuring an uphill climb followed by a sweeping downhill turn and a long run in, so it is surprising that their Derby Trial hasnâ€™t had more of an influence recently. Since 1983, Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise all won at Lingfield en-route to Derby success but since then all of the winners to have run in the Investec Derby have been beaten. Main Sequence who won this yearâ€™s contest, with Cavaleiro back in 3rd, bid to get the race back amongst the winners. With Sir Michael Stoute without a runner this year, the honour of leading trainer in the race goes to Aidan Oâ€™Brien who won here in 2001 and 2002 with Galileo and High Chaparral and has also seen seven of his runners finish in the frame. In fact, his horses finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th behind Sea The Stars in 2009. Oâ€™Brien, who has a replica Tattenham Corner gallop at his Ballydoyle training centre, would appear to hold all of the aces for this yearâ€™s race in the shape of Astrology and Camelot. Over the last ten years the average winning starting price is a shade over 4/1 confirming that shock results in the Investec Derby are very rare. Therefore, certainly for win purposes, Camelot, Bonfire, Astrology and Main Sequence would appear to be the main protagonists. However, it is interesting to note that the last horse to win the Investec Derby at odds-on was Shergar, who stormed to a record ten length victory at 10-11 in 1981. Since then, the three horses to have started odds-on favourites for the Investec Derby â€“ El Gran Senor (8-11, 1984), Tenby (4-5, 1993) and Entrepreneur (4-6, 1997) â€“ were all beaten. Finally, donâ€™t be put off backing an outsider each-way as over the past decade we have seen placed horses return a starting price ranging from 20-1 to 100-1. Although runners drawn low have a slight disadvantage over the early part of the Investec Derby course, as long as they can maintain their position, that disadvantage is soon wiped out as they approach Tattenham Corner. Many a Derby has been won or lost on that part of the course. With nine runners this year, it is unlikely that there will any hard-luck stories so it is probably best not to rely too heavily on where your selection is drawn. Apart from the 2010 winner Workforce, all of the recent Investec Derby winners with an official rating were rated 113 or higher and it could be argued that those without a rating had run to something like that mark. If we are to use that figure as a benchmark this year only Camelot (121), Bonfire (119), and Astrology (113) would appear to have the quality to win. Shortlist Camelot Bonfire (Thought Worthy) Conclusion Whichever way you look at it CAMELOT looks to have very strong credentials. Being especially picky one could argue that the record of 2000 Guineas winners isnâ€™t great in the Investec Derby but just like Sea The Stars, who did the Classic double in 2009, Oâ€™Brienâ€™s colt won at Newmarket despite the one mile trip rather than because of it. His racing style and pedigree both suggest that he will be better suited to a mile and a half. You could also argue that the last three odds-on favourites have all been beaten but with only 9 runners going to post can this be considered a â€˜normalâ€™ Derby. I think it will be a major upset if he is beaten. Bonfire, the impressive winner of the Dante Stakes, looks to be his chief rival and he too has ticks in the all of the right boxes, in fact he is arguably stronger than Camelot. I like this horse a lot and even included him in my Fifty for the Flat service this year so I can see him serving it up to the hot-pot favourite and he must be the one that Oâ€™Brien fears the most. Main Sequence and Astrology both deserve to be on the shortlist but I am giving the final place to Thought Worthy as I am almost certain that he will improve again for the step up in trip. He was only caught very late on by Imperial Monarch in the Sandown Classic Trial over a trip and on ground that was less than ideal, yet he was double the price prior to the Oâ€™Brien horseâ€™s defection. He followed that with a hard-fought victory over Noble Mission and Rugged Cross in the Fairway Stakes when again he looked to be crying out for a mile and a half. He may well prove a St Leger horse in the long term and he did look more attractive at the 25/1 available earlier in the week but I wouldnâ€™t be surprised to see him make the frame.

cpo · June 1, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 1.35 Epsom Star Date 2pts win @ 12/1 Bet365 This horses best career runs have come this year in soft conditions. There is a chance that he needs cut in the ground but I feel he has just improved form 2 to 3. He is by Galileo who is having plenty of success as a sire and I would expect the extra furlong here to suit him. He was an impressive winner at Ripon over 9f beating Commend by 4 lengths. He makes his handicap debut here off effectively 78 taking into account the jockeys claim. I think there is every chance he is better than his current mark but this is a competitive race so we will have to see what happens tomorrow. 3.15 Sohraab 3pts win @ 15/1 William Hill My BBOTD 4.50 Epsom Fiery Lad 2pts EW @ 14/1 William Hill This horse is on a dangerous looking mark now and his last run at the track can be excused seeing as he doesn't like heavy ground. He returned from a long absence in Dubai this year and got better with every run over there. He then ran at Epsom but finished tailed off on heavy ground. He was a winner at this meeting over 10f back in 2010 off a mark of 105 so he is 7lbs lower today. Conditions will be much more in his favour tomorrow and this looks a winnable race for this talented horse. 5.25 Epsom Lui Rei 4pts win @ 9/1 Bet365 Lui Rei finished a good 4th in this race last year. He was drawn right on the outside so did well to finish as close as he did. Tomorrow he is drawn in 7, so he should hopefully be able to tack across and get a good position. Jim Crowley takes the ride and the horse is 2lbs lower than last year. He comes here in form having defeated the well handicapped Judge n Jury at Goodwood over 5f and then looking as though a step up to 6f would suit after finishing fast at Thirsk to grab 5th. He goes on any ground and I am expecting a good run.

switzerland · June 1, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 3.10 Haydock - Mohedian Lady - EW 10/1 PP Luca Cumani's filly looks overpriced to me here. She ran well on her seasonal debut for a long way (making the running) in the race won by Izzy Top before tiring in the last furlong. The favourite (Set to Music) finished just ahead of her having been covered up so I don't think Mohedian Lady should be more than 3 times her price. Mohedian Lady needed a run first time out last year before going on to win two handicaps. She then mixed it with the colts in the G3 St Simon Stakes where she had Beaten Up, Al Kazem and Barbican ahead of her. She actually went of 2nd favourite that day and ran well over ground and distance similar to what she'll encounter here so I'm surprised to see her dismissed in the market - particularly now she's back against her own sex. Kirsty Milczarek has won on her before and if she improves a bit (which she has to do on ratings) then she could shake up the market leaders. 2.40 Epsom - Beaten Up - 1pt Win 4/1 WH I've been banging the Beaten Up drum for some time now. I'm a big fan of this horse (as his trainer clearly is) and think he has a lot more to give. He still has to prove himself at group 1 level but his performance in the St Simon Stakes last year was seriously impressive. Still lightly raced and open to any amount of improvement having never run at 2. He disappointed at Meydan but it was his first start of the season and he pulled very hard. Robin Hood will hopefully make this a proper stamina test and give Beaten Up the strong pace he needs to settle. It will take a big effort to beat St Nichlas Abbey but he could well be capable of doing so. SNA wasn't that straightforward in this last year and hopefully Murtagh can get the better of Joseph O'Brien here. 2.10 Haydock - Shubaat - 1pt Win 5/1 PP I put up Shubaat for the Chester Cup and he was given a poor ride by his young apprentice that day - held up a long way back and travelling wide around Chester doesn't work. Neil Callan is back on board today so hopefully he can get a better ride here and keep him closer to the pace. When Callan won on him first time out this season he was towards the front and pushing the pace so hopefully he can do likewise here.

Redoubtable · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4.00 Epsom The Derby Minimize Risk 100/1 bet365 Rugged Cross 50/1 bet365 Mickdaam 33/1 Betfred When Treasure Beach beat Nathaniel in last last year's Chester Vase the form was undervalued, and I think this year's renewal may have been another very good race. Model Pupil ran a great race to finish second and looks a likely type for the St Leger, but is not in the Derby. The two that run today are the winner, Mickdaam, and the last of the five, Minimize Risk. Mickdaam produced a classy performance and looks great value at 33/1 with most bookmakers. He has shown that he stays and has plenty of smart form. Minimize Risk did not run as badly as the result suggests; entering the final straight in company with Model Pupil he jinked left and collided with him, losing his momentum, and Jamie Spencer was not hard on him when his chance had gone. He had previously looked good when cruising into the lead in a maiden at Newbury on soft ground and battling well to beat off a strong challenge from Uriah Heep, but he has the action of a fast ground horse and I expect him to improve hugely on the better ground at Epsom. Chester was only his third race, and the only one that was not on soft was his debut. At 100/1 he is worth chancing. Rugged Cross was only a length behind Thought Worthy on his first appearance this year at Newmarket two weeks ago after threatening to win inside the final furlong. He ran as if he needs further but lacked a bit of fitness. The extra two furlongs should suit him and he would not have to improve much to turn that form round. 50/1 is too big.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 1.35 Epsom - 2pts win Spoke To Carlo @ 12/1 (SJ) This horse is yet to win a race but isn't handicapped out of it on his first start with a mark and I think could run a big race. He's been meeting some smart types in maidens - the likes of Grandeur (much better off today), Bronze Angel, Caveleiro etc and proved he stayed in a 1m2f maiden last time when the first two were a little way on from the rest. Should shape fitter for that and has shown he can run well enough away from a conventional flat track with solid efforts at the likes of Brighton and Newmarket. A mark of 82 doesn't look beyond him given how close he's got to some horses now rated a fair bit superior and has a tidy draw in stall 6. Might just break his duck today. (More to come in the morning)

Edberg · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 3.15 Epsom JAMESWAY 4pts to win @ 10/1 bog (Ladbrokes) This 4yo gelding trained by Richard Fahey has got a very big chance in this race imho. Last year he was only one of the two 3yos in the field in this race and still he ran a cracker and was very unlucky to finish just 7th but only 3/4L behind the winner Captain Dunne. That day he was drawn low but crossed the track and went towards the stands' rail but afterwards didn't get any luck in running. Finished the quickest of all the 16 runners in the end but as written above was just 7th. That was off 88 and today the son of Camacho races off 85 and has finally got a better draw in stall nr. 18. He made his seasonal/4yo debut 5 weeks ago over this C&D and was very unlucky once again finishing 4th of 14 on soft ground (prefers it faster and will get it today) racing off 85. He was returning from a 249-day break and would have been involved in the finish had he not been stuck behind a no-hoper when he should have been making his move. Paul Hanagan reported the gelding hung right but he was an eye-catching unlucky performance once again imho. I am not a big fan of today's jockey Liam Jones but he won 3 of his last four races this week and couldn't come here with better confidence. There are of course a lot of good sprinters starting from the top-weight and last year's winner Captain Dunne but Jamesway stands a big chance imho and badly deserves to win a race like this.

Lars · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Although CROWN CHOICE (15:20) is drawn in stall 14, it isnâ€™t as big a disadvantage over 7f here at Catterick as it would be over 6f and back to his preferred ground, on a good mark, down in grade and for a stable among the winners, he has every chance of recording his first success since May 2011. That was when he was trained by Walter Swinburn and was over 6f at Goodwood, but heâ€™s equally effective over 7f and this sharp track shouldnâ€™t inconvenience at all. Decent ground is paramount to his chances and he hasnâ€™t faced that on his past two starts, but ran with credit in a very competitive Conditions Stakes on soft ground on his penultimate outing which suggested that the ability still remained and he could be competitive from a rating within the 90â€™s. His last start at Pontefract should be completely written off, running on soft ground on the wrong part of the track. Fortunately, the handicapper has dropped him 3lbs and this allows him to get into this 0-90 contest off a rating of 88. His last victory came off a mark of 94 and heâ€™s well-handicapped on that basis, alongside the fact heâ€™s shown form to suggest heâ€™d be up to running to a rating close to 100 over this trip in handicaps (Bunbury Cup effort last summer). With ideal conditions over a track he should handle, heâ€™s a horse to follow for the time being and although drawn wide, they have plenty of time to sort themselves out over 7f here and hopefully heâ€™ll be able to get cover. Heâ€™s better than this mark and heâ€™s worth following when encountering better ground until he wins, and is worthy of the usual stakes at this sort of price, as I have him at around a 10/1 chance. This 1m4f handicap following The Derby is a remarkable race for a Class 2 contest as itâ€™s a very poor race, with many of the runners coming with question marks against them. SPANISH DUKE (16:50) is one such runner but his preference for Epsom will obviously stand him in good stead and I think he has decent prospects of staying this 1m4f trip if he settles even remotely well and although this isnâ€™t guaranteed, I still think heâ€™s better than a mark of 97 when running around Epsom. Heâ€™s a quirky character that likes idiosyncratic tracks, having won both here at Epsom and at Brighton, the former coming in ridiculously easy fashion, looking like a Group horse in a handicap. That was off a mark of 95 and over 1m2f and todayâ€™s trip is a bit of a question mark, his only ever effort at this distance was only very moderate. That being said, it did take place in 2010 and his pedigree suggests that this trip is worth another go. Things didnâ€™t go right for him after his Epsom victory and his only other creditable effort came back at this track, where he ran OK in a muddling Conditions event. It shows that he really does need to run here to show his best, and if showing that today he could hack up, even accounting for going 2f up in trip. This is a really weak contest and although Spanish Duke comes with his quirks, and his tendency to be keen early on wonâ€™t do him any favours over this longer trip, his admiration of Epsom alongside running off what looks a good mark, for a yard who seem to be starting to hit top gear this year, means heâ€™s worthy of support until the 8/1 mark. Backing a horse who is a 21 race maiden isnâ€™t the smartest of strategies long-term, but EENY MAC (17:40) has put up some very creditable efforts around Beverley and goes well fresh, so looks value at this big price with stronger handling likely to help. Heâ€™d at one point looked to be going absolutely nowhere and was rated as low as 43 at one stage. However, some fair efforts last season in plating company (actually stronger races than this handicap) saw him come back to a proper handicap rating and this mark of 50 doesnâ€™t look insurmountable. All his best turf form has come on stiff tracks, placing over 7f-1m at Beverley and over 7f at Newcastle. A replication of those efforts would put him in the mix, especially with the talented Julie Burke taking over from an inexperienced 7lb claimer. Sheâ€™s still able to claim 3lbs and is good value for it, and although Eeny Macâ€™s fitness has to be taken on trust, the Neville Bycroft yard have had a winner and a second from their last four runners and the selection finished in the places on seasonal reappearance at Southwell last season. Perhaps only another placed finish beckons but at this price, heâ€™s worthy of a small win bet especially as he doesnâ€™t seem soft in a finish or anything of that ilk. Bets 15:20 Catterick â€“ Crown Choice; 2pts @ 18/1 Bet365 (bog) 16:50 Epsom â€“ Spanish Duke; 2pts @ 10/1 Bet365, Betfred (bog) 17:40 Beverley â€“ Eeny Mac; 1pt @ 28/1 BetVictor (bog)

Trotter · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day There are 5 meetings on RUK this afternoon, with races scheduled every 5 minutes Isn't that ridiculous..........there'll be no Derby build up or post race verdict No time for discussion of any of the races, no paddock, no 'going down'....... Sod it. I think I'll break the habit of a lifetime and watch racing on Terrestrial

robertob · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 16.00 Epsom: Cavaleiro EW @ 66/1 Bet365 Just want to be involved in the Derby with a small bet and I have to say I like the chance of Cavaleiro quite a bit. Not that I really expect him to win, surely not, but I expect to get a run for my money as there are a few interesting things about him. Firstly the ground: He only encountered two times in his career a surface better than good to soft. At his racecourse debut, when he finished 3rd, not far beaten, and when he finally broke his maiden tag at Chepstow last August when winning on the bridle. Not the strongest of forms overall, but still shows there is no issue with today's ground conditions at Epsom for him. He followed up with another good performance at Newbury, when winning a class 2 conditions race. He was put away over the winter then and made his reappearance in the Derby trial at Lingfield recently, stepping up to 12f for the first time. He finished 3rd, beaten a good deal by Main Sequence, who had, however, the advantage of race fitness. So as this race came on the All-Weather and he probably needed the run anyway, I wouldn't read too much into this form. It just was a decent seasonal debut for Cavaleiro in my mind. Cavaleiro is still lightly raced and unexposed over the Derby distance and I assume he can improve over 12f. He's out of Derby winner Sir Percy, so there is every chance that he can do well over 1m 4f. He looks to lack a bit of class compared to the likes of Camelot, Bonfire etc., but the chance is there for improvement and if he does then he can run a good race and might even get placed. It's worth a small EW bet anyway.

mowgli77 · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Khawlah 3.10pm Haydock - 13/2 Sportingbet Last behind Izzi Top on its most recent start but I don't think it liked the ground that day and should be much improved on a faster surface. Has some top class form in Dubai and plenty of ability. Completed a UAE Oaks/Derby double in 2011 and that form should be better than most here. Needs to prove as effective on turf but looks more value than the Queen's horse at the prices. Intense Pink 4.40pm Haydock - 17/2 Bodog Goes from maiden race to listed race and might not have beaten much at Pontefract but the way it won was eyecatching and it went in the notebook. Lacks the form and experience of most rivals but that could be seen as inexperienced but also unexposed. Very different ground today too but might be worth taking a chance on.Its win at Ponty was reminiscent of todays rival My Propeller but that one has flopped since and is 28-1 today.

robertob · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 14.35 Haydock: Six of Hearts EW @ 28/1 VC This is a massive price I feel. Six of Hearts stepping up to 7f finally again... I've been waiting for that quite a while now and I'm happy to see him doing so today. He's a much better horse over 7 furlongs in my mind. He showed in the recent month that he remains his old class and enthusiasm. He ran very consistently this year so far, wasn't disgraced in all his start, he didn't win for almost a year now, though. He is in good form anyway, his fifth place at the Curragh lto over 6f was a good performance. He was only two lengths beaten and didn't get the clearest of runs. He loves fast ground, he steps up to 7f, he is in good form, this race here is a good one but he's definitely up to this class and he loads in his favour today. He's a massive price and has a much better chance to win this than his odds suggesting in my mind. Eight runners is risky, obviously, but I hope there won't be a non-runner, as then it is a really tasty Each-Way bet. I'll take the risk. Edit: Yeah sure, just actualising the browser window and the field is down to seven: Gossamer Seed non-runner. :eyes

south_eastern_ram · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4.50 Epsom - Layline - 16/1 VC Really improved recently for the step up to 12f, won a handicap off 85 and gone well off marks in the low 90's. Returns to the turf off a mark of 84 with the claimer taking off 5lbs. Most people will probably think he wont win this based on his turf form but i think his effort over 9f at Newmarket in a class 2 handicap shows he's very capable on turf. If you look at nearly all of his turf efforts he's ran too keen a lot of the time, not sure what it is but on turf he hasnt settled at all. His run at Newmarket where he did settle he ran a big race to stay on into a distant 6th from an unfavourable position on a day at Newmarket where everything that won was prominent/made all. I think potentially he could be very well handicapped here, took 20's last night but still a touch of value at 16's imo. 5.25 Epsom - We Have A Dream - 20/1 Coral The recent form of William Muir is my only concern here, his comments at Folkestone earlier in the week talking about one of his runners was slightly off putting, saying a few of his are running badly at the moment and he couldnt really fancy his runner that night. Other than that, this one looks to have a lot in his favour. Good record round here, trip/ground not a problem, won off this mark last year and has gone well off higher. Couple of runs this year to blow away the cobwebs, shaping much better lto. A lot of these want to be held up which isnt ideal around here, expect this one to bowl out in front and it's just whether he can hold on, hopefully he doesnt get taken on early too much. 2.55 Musselburgh - Bajan Tryst - 20/1 VC Been negative in the market today which is slightly off putting and although he may prefer 6f, from a great draw in 15 he looks a massive price. I dont think the market reflects the bias the draw will play here, Barnet Fair at 9/1 to win from stall 3? Massive ask imo. Not won on turf for a long time but dont think that's an issue, ran some massive races on turf off a similar mark as today but just found one too good a couple of times. Ground preferred and ran a good race in listed company at Lingfield lto over 5f. Good draw and looks over priced. 4.55 Catterick - Green Park - 9/2 WH Another one that's been negative in the market but think this race will be set up perfectly for him. All his previous best form over 5f but getting on a bit now and looked better in his last two starts stepped up to 6f. Won very easily at Chester lto and only 4lbs higher with conditions not a problem. Should get a nice toe into this race from stall 2, is in good heart and a few of these have got something to prove coming into this. Also on Crown Choice at 33/1 last night, not sure if the values there now but think he'll run a big race.

cpo · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day oh dear i hope that isnt a sign of things to come.... faller in the first! hope the jockey is okay

Cowan · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Racing doesn't need more bad press this year. Why do these things happen when the Nation is watching...

mowgli77 · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day That was simply awesome from St Nicholas Abbey. It hasn't beaten mugs there with Masked Marvel and Red Cadeaux also in the race but it was miles better than them on the day and JOB was absolutely motionless as he passed the front runners in a matter of strides. Really impressed with that, lovely action and fully justified the short price. I didn't fancy it before the race at odds on but credit where it's due, fantastic performance.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 3.15 Epsom - 2pts win Confessional @ 9/1 (Bet365) It often takes a horse to race prominently here over the speedy 5f and this one has plenty of natural pace and seems likely to be not too far away in the 'dash'. He goes well at these type of tracks and went close in this very race last year when beaten a neck. He is 8lbs higher today but has been in cracking nick and conditions will suit yet again. His victory at Chester was pretty convincing and the better ground today won't inconvenience. He ran a blinder behind Group 1 sprinters in the Temple Stakes last week and is 5lbs well-in so this may be his best chance of grabbing another big handicap.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day Christ on a bike Durcan.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4.00 Epsom - 2pts e/w Thought Worthy @ 20/1 (Hills) Didn't know how to play this one if at all, but with the Gosden team flying, I reckon Thought Worthy has a great chance of finishing in the top three, and might just be able to take advantage should Camelot fail to fire. He does have a bit to find of course but I liked the way he battled on gamely over 1m2f last time, shaping as if the step up to 1m4f would really suit. He got the better of some high-class horses such as Noble Mission. I get the feeling he's better on a sound surface so although he ran well on his first two starts, those can be upgraded and these might just be spot on conditions for him as he goes up in trip on this ground. In this small field, it may pay to be close to the pace and I fancy Buick to keep this one in the frame from the front. He enjoys to lead and Aidan O'Brien doesn't have any pacemakers in here it seems given both of his have live chances. There doesn't appear obvious front-runners so he may get a nice lead and if Buick can get his pace right, looks capable of a good run.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4.50 Epsom - 3pts win King's Warrior @ 15/2 (SJ) This one has done well on two starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam in this country and with stamina on his dam's side, the step up in trip looks likely to suit. He does have a wide draw today which isn't ideal but he's been held up usually so he can be dropped in and William Buick has been shown in good light coming from behind here over the last two days. He looks off a fair mark on what he's shown on UK shores but just lacked the speed right at the death - shaping as if this trip would help. Was behind a thriving horse when a clear-enough 2nd at Chester last time (winner won over hurdles since) after a very good 2nd at Doncaster to a horse who I think remains well-handicapped. That was off the back of a break so a repeat of that would see him go very close today. The ground is different but has gone okay on it in the past (debut effort for Gary Moore before moving to France) and won on good-to-soft abroad. If that's no concern then there looks few issues and a big run seems likely.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 5.25 Epsom - 2pts win Piscean @ 9/1 (Hills) Kieron Fallon is a very interesting jockey booking here and his style should suit this horse who can be a bit tricky. He looked all over the winner over 7f at Goodwood last time but didn't quite pick up as well as expected. He still ran a cracker and 6f is probably a bit better for him. He relishes downhill tracks - his record at Goodwood is very strong, so fingers crossed he can go equally well here (inconclusive evidence so far). He's undoubtedly well-handicapped on his best form and he absolutely needs a quick surface. It's obviously riding on the fast side given the time of the 'dash' so that suits and his draw shouldn't be too bad based on the winner of that race coming from stall 2. He hasn't run a bad race for quite a long time when he's had his conditions (recent poor effort at Newmarket can be forgiven on the basis of the ground). So he has everything in his place to run a cracker. The only issue really is whether you need to be up with the pace. He's a hold-up performer so Fallon will have to be clever but if he gets it right, I'm keen on this one.

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day 4th :rollin What an absolutely horrific couple of days. Confessional's run: Held up in midfield, closed to chase leaders and going well when not clear run 1f out, trying to rally when not clear run again and hampered final 100yds, kept on, unable to challenge (op 9-1) Fingers crossed for a winner from the last two. Otherwise it's a blank Derby meeting.

Chaostheorie · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day wow, Camelot. Really impressive. Do you guys think he can make the triple crown?

Falbrav · June 2, 2012

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 2nd June ~ Derby Day BABY STRANGE 5.25 Epsom. 1 point win. All in place for a big run today, as although upped by the handicapper without winning, the form does add up and the trip and ground's fine. Competitive race, but we have more in favour than most. 8/1 Paddy Power BOG

Bathtime For Rupert · June 2, 2012