Cheltenham Trends

[Aykay1]

Here's some past trends that should prove useful when narrowing down the Cheltenham Festival fields. Helped me land a couple of nice touches last year so hopefully we'll get more of the same this time around. If you can spot any errors or ommissions please let me know. :ok DAY 1 THE SUPREME NOVICES - 27 out of the last 30 races have gone to 5 or 6 year olds. - 2 of the other 3 have gone to Martin Pipes 4 year olds (8lb allowance) - Every winner since 1996 won on its last start. - Flat breds won every race except for 2 years ago since 1996 - Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. CHAMPION HURDLE -6 year olds have nearly a 50% strike rate in this in the last 25 years - 24 9 and 10 year olds have tried in the last decade and apart from the 9 year old Rooster Booster 2 years ago, one 4th place is the best they have managed - 18 of the last 20 winners won their last race. - Previous experience at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cheltenham is a big advantage. WILLIAM HILL NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE - We need a horse between 8-11 years old. - 24 runners who were 7 or younger in the last 10 years have produced only one winner in 1994. - Only 3 horses age 12 or over have won any kind of race at Cheltenham since 1980 - Can’t really afford to be out of the handicap, especially when the going is good/firm or faster. Only 2 of the 33 runners trying from out of the handicap have succeeded in 56 years. HAUT CERCY went close 2 years ago though. - Need less than 11stone 2 lb¡¦s ¡V Only 2 horses out of 19 have succeeded carrying more than this. - Ignore Pipe/Nicholls runners here ¡V their record in this race is poor. THE FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS - Only 2 of the 77 runners aged older than 9 have won this race in the last 11 years. - Its 35 years since the last 6 year old won. - Only one winner in the last 18 years has carried more than 11 stone, after deducting riders allowances, even he was only carrying 11st 2lbs. - 8 of the previous 11 winners had been in the first 3 on their previous run. 6 of the last 8 were first or second previously - You need a good amateur jockey. THE PERTEMPS HURDLE FINAL - 29 horses 10 years old or over have managed only one placing between them. - Its 19 years since the last such winner. - Similarly ignore 5 years old and under. There have been 18 runners in the last 11 runnings with no winners. - 6 and 7 year olds have taken the race on 15 of the last 21 occassions. - Only 3 of the last 29 runnings went to those carrying less than 10st 8lbs - 8 of the last 11 winners won on their previous outing - 9 of the last 11 winners had taken breaks of more than 30 days - this is a tough race. - All of the last 11 winners were hold up horses. Difficult to front run. DAY 2 THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have provided the winner of 27 out of the last 30 runnings. - Since 1970, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. THE R&SA CHASE - Only 2 9 year olds have taken this in the last 40 runnings. Only one has been placed in the last 10 runnings and that was in a small field. - 9 of the last 11 winners have been in the first 5 in the betting. - Before Rule Supreme won ast year, we could ignore anything that has run in the Feltham on Boxing Day or the Reynoldstown in Ascot in February. No successes from 17. only 4 placings. - 27 of the last 30 were 1st or 2nd on their last run. - 8 of the last 11 winners had breaks less than 38 days. - Ignore Flat Breds ¡V they have a poor record. - French breds have a good record. THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE - Ignore older than 10 or younger than 7 years old - 39 of the last 45 runnings have gone to the first 3 in the market. - Its been 24 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run. - 16 of the last 20 winners all won or placed at the previous festival. Two of the remainder had won good chases at Cheltenham outside the festival. - 12 of the last 15 winners had won over 20f. THE CORAL CUP - Avoid 5 year olds - no weight allowance. 50 have tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

- Irish are very strong in this race. - 8 of the last 11 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and 2 of the other 3 had 4 runs - had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured - ignore front runners. THE NATIONAL HUNT STEEPLECHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS. - First 6 in betting - aged 7 or more - at least placed last time - leading amateur jockey. MILDMAY OF FLEET - Only one winner of the last 11 carried more than 11 stone to victory. - Martin Pipe is strong in 20f chases here. - 31 out of the last 34 win/place positions have been placed on its previous outing. CHAMPION BUMPER - 5 year olds have won 9 of the 12 runnings with 4 year olds winning twice. - Irish have a strong record. DAY 3 THE TRIUMPH HURDLE - Fillies have won 3 of the last 4 renewals and have had 5 of the placings from only 12 runners to start 12/1 or less. - As at 2004, there had only been one British bred winner of this race in the last 10 years. - As at 2004, there had only been one NH bred winner of this race in the last 10 years. - French breds are strong THE STAYERS HURDLE - 33 horses aged 9 or older have tried in this and only 2 have won - they were winning for the second time. - Pipes fancied runners (<14/1) are worth looking at. 7 out of 11 of these have either won or placed. - All winners since 1987 finished in the first 4 on their previous outing. THE GOLD CUP - 8 or 9 years old is a bonus - should have won over a minimum of 25f - over a month since last outing THE FOXHUNTERS CHASE - Horses older than 10 have a weak record. Before Earthmover won last year, there had been 1 winner over 10 years old out of 81 runners since 1996. - Richard Barber has a good record here ¡V he has provided the winner 4 times out of 10 runners. - Similarly, Caroline Bailey has had a winner and 2 seconds from just 9 runners. - Before last year, a professional stable hadn’t won the race since 1989. - 6 of the last 11 winners had previously won at Cheltenham, 2 others had previously performed well. - 15 of the last 16 winners had won on their previous outing - Only one winner in recent times had not jumped over fences previously. - Ignore ex- quality handicappers coming down the ranks. THE GRAND ANNUAL - 12 of the last 19 winners carried more than 10st 8lbs. - Market leaders are favoured in this race. - 10 of the last 13 winners were in the first 5 in the betting - 27 of the last 30 winners were no bigger than 10/1 - 14 of the last 16 winners had finished in the first 4 on their previous run. Last years winner St Pirran fell on his previous outing but before that was 3^rd. - 9 out of the last 11 winners had run within 28 days. - As at last years festival, Tony McCoy had had 16 rides in 2 mile chases at the festival and had finished in the first 2 on 11 of those occasions. THE CATHCART - 15 of the last 16 winners were in the first 3 on their previous run. ¡V the exception was a previous winner of the race. - 9 of the last 11 had a break of 5 weeks or more. - First season Novices have taken 8 of the last 11 outings. - 2 French bred 5 year olds have a 100% record, both were trained by Pipe. - 5 year olds have a good record. THE VINCENT OBRIEN COUNTY HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have won 34 of the last 42 runnings. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. Has only been 3 winners carrying more than this in 30 years ¡V all were exceptional animals. Rooster Booster in 2002, and the other 2 were imperial cup winners from 5 days previously. - 167 horses have failed to win whilst running from out of the handicap since 1980. - Since 1987 only one winner has been out of the first 4 on the previous run. 11 winners since then have been in the first 2 on the previous run. - Winners tend to have run more than 6 times that year. - 4 out of the last 7 winners had been placed at Cheltenham earlier in the season

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Trends thanks Aykay. Due to an extra day added this year, some races have been changed around & some added. please see below for the full schedule: Day One - Tuesday

• 2:00pm - The Supreme Novices Hurdle Race
• 2:35pm - The Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase
• 3:15pm - The Smurfit Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
• 4:00pm - The William Hill National Hunt Handicap Steeple Chase
• 4:40pm - The Cross Country Steeple Chase
• 5:20pm - The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final

Day Two - Wednesday

• 2:00pm - The Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle
• 2:35pm - The New Novice Chase
• 3:15pm - The Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase
• 4:00pm - The Coral Cup Hurdle (a Handicap Hurdle Race)
• 4:40pm - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
• 5:20pm - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Day Three - Thursday

• 2:00pm - The Royal & Sun Alliance Steeple Chase
• 2:35pm - The Cathcart Challenge Cup Steeple Chase
• 3:15pm - The Bonusprint Stayers Hurdle Race
• 4:00pm - The Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup Hcp Chase
• 4:40pm - The National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup
• 5:20pm - The Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Day Four - Friday

• 2:00pm The JCB Triumph Hurdle Race
• 2:35pm The EBF NH Novices Hurdle Final
• 3:15pm The Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase
• 4:00pm The Christies Foxhunter Steeple Chase Challenge Cup
• 4:40pm The Cheltenham Grand Annual Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap)
• 5:20pm The Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Race