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Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May


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A 17 runner handicap isn’t always the best place to find a solid bet, but HEIGHT OF SUMMER (18:15) shaped nicely on seasonal reappearance last time and with the good pace and stiffer track likely to suit today, she’s overpriced at her current double figure price. Lightly-raced with only 7 starts to date, her best form has come on polytrack but she’s hardly had much of a chance on turf away from slow ground or competitive maidens, so she’s unexposed on grass in that respect. Her sole victory came over this trip at Kempton back in August off a 1lb lower mark, a win where she was value for more especially as they didn’t go quick early on and she had to make plenty of ground up from the rear. She shaped as if she’d get further but her subsequent two starts were disappointing, with slower ground at Goodwood likely to blame before a fairly lifeless effort back at Kempton over 1m4f. Those two efforts were last year and her seasonal reappearance two weeks ago was very encouraging. Held-up, she was ridden hands and heels throughout and stayed on nicely. It was a promising effort especially coming from a yard that often leaves plenty to work with for those making a seasonal debut and she should have come on for that run quite significantly. The stiffer finish at Sandown today will help, given she might need a test at this 1m2f trip and the likely decent pace, with 17 runners and three usual pacesetters, should lead to them going at least a decent clip, an obvious benefit. Height Of Summer is obviously handicapped to go close off a rating of 70; given she won off 69 last year and although the Chris Wall yard are struggling for winners of late, his horses aren’t running badly in the main and I’m not overly concerned on that front. She’ll need to find the gaps in a big-field like this but at a price of 14/1; I’m willing to take the chance that they’ll come. She’ll probably need significant rain to stay away but it’s forecast to do so and given she’s unexposed on fast turf and easily looks capable of improving past her current mark, she is worthy of the usual stakes. Bets 18:15 Sandown – Height Of Summer; 2pts @ 14/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog)

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 8.55 Sandown - 2pts win Directorship @ 10/1 (Bet365) Playing my hand in one of the most competitive races of the day but that means there could be some value to be had and although Patrick Chamings' runner will have to improve again to take this off higher than his previous winning marks, there was plenty to like on his seasonal reappearance after he thrived last year. He won twice in the summer off marks of 84 and 86 (the latter decisively) which gives hope that a mark of 90 may not be too much to handle. Conditions suit ideally with him having a career record at Sandown of 71632275 which reduces to 13225 when taking out races on soft ground, over 1m2f and when returning from a break. Even the 5th last year saw him go down by 1l so he does enjoy it round here on a good surface. His efforts since his decisive 2l win over 7f at Newbury have been promising, and a bit better than the formbook suggests I think. He was a staying on 9th of 29 over 7 at Ascot next time out when isolated a little bit up the middle of the track and was doing his best work late on. Shaped as if he definitely wants a mile ideally and was drawn on the wrong side at Newmarket on his final run of 2011. He was 3rd of 8 in his group with both those ahead of him running well since, and the race on the whole worked out well. I can forgive that, especially as he returned with a highly encouraging 5th at Kempton recently. He suffered from a bit of bad luck in running, both mid-race and up the straight but kept on really well under a ride which wasn't too hard on him. He went down by 1 1/2l in the end with today's pilot George Baker in the saddle. That effort off this mark suggested he could win races still and hopefully he'll have come on a bit for that too. The yard's horses are running okay and I'd be surprised if we didn't get a big run from this one with conditions to suit and hopefully his turn of foot can prove a potent weapon once more.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 6.15 Sandown - 3pts win Scottish Star @ 6/1 (Bet365) Was between this one and Chain Of Events here but the latter's strike-rate is a concern and James Eustace's runner is plenty unexposed and is going to relish the step up in trip today. This grey has clearly not been the easiest, hence only running five times in two years but this will be his 3rd run of the season so connections are clearly happy enough with him this time around. He didn't show a huge amount in two 7f maidens (the latter decent) but got off the mark when stepped up to 1m2f at Lingfield next time out. He didn't look the easiest and did take a keen hold early which is perhaps why he has been sent over 1m on both occasions this year since returning from an absence. He couldn't offer much after a break of over 12 months on softish ground at Yarmouth but showed he was capable when staying on dourly to retain his 100% record on the artificial surface at Kempton last time. He was under pressure for a long time up the straight - seemingly making little inroads - before a final burst near the finish saw him prevail in a blanket finish. He really looked like he'd enjoy further on this occasion, and the fact his dam stayed 2 miles as well as being by an 8-10f horse, it seems almost certain he will love the extra 2f on offer today (although like I said, he is a distance winner). He will need to switch off but if he does his mark is definitely exploitable as long as he proves himself as good on turf. I think he's had excuses on his efforts on grass to date so fingers crossed it's not just him showing he much prefers the all-weather. The faster conditions should suit him and he should run very well. He'll definitely be winning races but I guess this is the real test over whether it is likely to be mainly on the polytrack.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 2.40 Ayr GALICIAN 4pts to win @ 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Galician has done little wrong in her short career thus far: 2 wins, 3 seconds and 1 fourth in 7 starts since her debut (2nd of 15) at Redcar (7f, good) last November. She made a pleasing debut finishing 4L ahead of the third (who won next/last time out three weeks ago and is now rated 79) and was well beaten (5L behind) just by the impressive colt trained by Gosden Starboard who finished second 4L behind the 106-rated Fort Bastion two weeks ago on his next start (3yo debut) and is rated 97. Galician won her first race a few weeks after her debut (23 November) at Kempton on her first start over 6f (raced 4 out of 5 times over 7f in her first 5 outings). That maiden she won has worked out pretty well as both second, third, fourth, fifth (twice), sixth (thrice), seventh and eighth won since and most of them are 3yos now rated in the high 70s and she won pretty easily. After the winter break the filly trained by Mark Johnston was kept busy twice over 7f but once dropped to 6f she showed big improvements finishing second (beaten only 1/2L by the interesting Charlton-trained Princess Jewel) at Kempton (9 May) and recorded her best ever effort (RPR 84) back on turf (18 May) over 6f at Hamilton (good to soft) winning a class 4 handicap off 76. She beat Fahey-trained Our Boy Jack who bolted up off the same mark next/last time out (now rated 77 which is 10lb higher than when he was beaten by Galician at Hamilton). That was a close finish and the handicapper upped Galician's rating just 4lb and off 80 she has to stand a very big chance today too. Mark Johnston's stable are one of the most reliable all over the year and the Northern Yorkshire-based trainer saddled 10 winners in the last fortnight and 3 yesterday (3 winners, 2 seconds and a close 4th which was a 16/1 shot from yesterday's six runners). Mirco Demuro won a nice race here at Ayr yesterday with a Mark Johnston-trained 2yo and two days ago did the same at Chepstow with a 3yo trained by the same trainer. The Italian jockey is now 4-10 in the last fortnight when riding for Mark Johnston. Galician handled good ground very well on her debut and there is no reason why the faster ground (compared to her last win at Hamilton) should inconvenience her today. The draw isn't a big issue as she doesn't surely need to lead.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 3.15 Ayr ALPHA TAURI 3pts to win @ 10/3 bog (Bet365) Alpha Tauri after a long quiet spell (never better than fifth from Apr 2011 till March 2012) came back to form at Southwell finishing second in a selling stakes over 1m (13 Mar) and bolting in a handicap over 7f off 67 (8 May). Upped 8lb for that win the Richard Guest-trained 6yo was upped 8lb and in a better category (class 4 handicap) he ran very well once again (off 75) and was just beaten 1/2L over 1m (23 May) which is surely a trip a bit too long for this front-runner (faded just in the last furlong). Alpha Tauri is now rated 80 on the AW and after a disappointing effort on soft ground at Brighton (class 6 handicap off 52) when he finished 6th of 14 four weeks ago he's back on turf but on a better ground (was very soft at Brighton that day) and at the top of his form. The only good result on turf (in 12 starts) was a second at Warwick three years ago over 7f on good to firm when just beaten by Mull Of Killough (now rated 99). The draw isn't perfect (stall number 1) and there is another in-form front runner (Chosen One) who has a better draw and a big chance since he easily won last time out (6 days ago) over 5f on good to firm at Catterick and since that was an apprentices' handicap the Ruth Carr-trained 7yo can race off the same mark (47) today and will go up 8lb next week but I can't see Chosen One stopping Alpha Tauri and Chosen One has a terrible record over this track (3-5-5-9-7-6). Richard Guest has had 5 winners from his last 12 runners so the stable are in very good form at the moment and Graham Gibbons has a 14% strike rate here at Ayr over the last 5 seasons (10 wins). So I'm with Alpha Tauri who deserves to win a race on turf on current form from a mark which is 30lb lower than is actual mark on the AW.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 3.45 Ayr AMAZING WIN 5pts to win @ 8/11 bog (Bet365) This 4yo filly trained by Mick Channon is in the form of her life. She won her first race at Kempton two months ago (6f, handicap off 55) and was second of 12 over the same C&D on her last start on the AW (off 62). Back on turf she ran well but didn't enjoy that much the testing grounds and the 5f trip both at Bath and Newcastle earlier this month but flourished on her last two starts winning at Goodwood (6f, good ground, apprentice handicap off 55) 7 days ago and finishing second of 14 at Carlisle (6f, good to firm, handicap off 54) 3 days ago when Best Trip was hard to beat but she faced a lot of problems in running and could have finished way closer to the winner (2.75L behind him at the end). Her new mark is 60 but can still race off 54 today and with a clear run she seems unbeatable in this company. Matthew Davies replaces Charles Bishop on her saddle and the jockey is a regular jockey for the stable and has ridden 3 winners, all trained by Channon, in the last 15 days. Channon has saddled 11 winners in the last fortnight so his horses are in very good form at the moment.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 1.40 Ayr HOTOTO 4pts to win @ 6/4 bog (Bet365) Hototo was a very unlucky third on his debut at Musselburgh (4 May, 5f, good to soft) (hampered after 1f and behind, headway 2f out, effort and not clear run over 1f out, switched right entering final furlong and stayed on strongly) when beaten a nose and 3/4L and he found Cay Verde too good on his second start at Ascot (12 may, 5f, soft) with the Mick Channon-trained 2yo able to win a Listed over 5f on Irish Guineas day at the Curragh 5 days ago (TS 95, RPR 100). The third of that race (favourite that day) was the Hannon-trained Janoub Nibras who ran very well next/last time out finishing second of 12 at Nottingham (6f, good to firm) beaten a short head by the Mark Johnston-trained debutant Windhoek with the pair well clear of the remainder. Even the 9th of that race Limit Up has finished a close second on his next/last start at Ripon on Tuesday. So that form reads pretty well now. Kevin Ryan has saddled 10 winners in the last 12 days and Phillip Makin has ridden 12 of his 18 winners this season for the trainer. The main danger on paper, and current market leader, is the Mick Channon-trained filly Jillnextdoor who finished 2nd of 6, 1/2L behind the winner, on her debut at Newbury (5f, good) 13 days ago. She is an half-sister to the smart miler Commander Cave and was closing on the winner close home so a very quick 5f doesn't seem her best (also Van Rooney and Shy Glance, two more half-brothers, are/were not good over sprint distances).

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 2.40 ayr galician comes out best on the clock here (84) but that was at kempton and won lto but in a mucher slower time (67) which doesnt inspire confidence today but is fancied so could run well and it would be no surprise if he won back on a faster surface but elsewhere DISCRESSION has been posting some nice times consistently ......has recorded an 82 on 2 of his last 3 runs (good ,wolv a.w)...hasnt raced on a surface this quick but looks a speedy type so might like it better .....either way his 11/2 with boyles is a nice e.w bet in this 8 runner race (just pray 1 doesnt drop out) .......looks on a nice mark and could run well discression 2pts e.w 11/2 boyles

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 3.05 Brighton KELPIE BLITZ 5pts to win @ 3/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) I had written these a couple of weeks ago: 7.30 Kempton KELPIE BLITZ 3pts to win @ 5/1 bog (Paddy Power) I had written this a couple of days ago: 5.15 Goodwood Kelpie Blitz 3pts to win @ 6/1 bog (many bookies) Improved since his debut when upped in distance over 1m finishing not far from good horses like Koko Loca and Enery and after poor seasonal debut he shaped way better on his second start of the season over 9.5f finishing 4th in a race won by the unbeaten and now 97-rated Ed De Gas (with Koko Loca close second). Heavily backed last time out (at Yarmouth over 9f, good to soft off 64) Kelpie Blitz found another good and well handicapped filly (Miss Cato went close off a 7lb higher mark next time out and had won her first two races earlier this year) to stop him but shaped very well under a very confident ride and finished second despite finding some troubles in the key moment of the race. Those are very strong form in this race and with today's 5lb claimer on board the horse will race off 59 which is a very handy mark as he should be able to build on his recent efforts and seems able to offer more than that with his young trainer who has already saddled 2 winners, 2 seconds, 2 thirds and 2 fourths with only 17 runners this season. He was a non-runner but most of the writing stands with the main difference about the jockey as George Baker is back on his saddle for this race. That means we won't get any 5lb claim but we'll have one of the best jockeys around especially for hold-up horses and he's been on him already so he should know him better this time. The step up to 1m3f should help and he has a very big chance in this race where the favourite Arctic Galaxy represents a top yard (Gosden) and finished strong last time out (but still only 6th) but has a lot to prove (only three runs, never better than 6th and never closer than 9.5L behind the winner). Back on the AW and upped in distance the grey gelding trained by Seamus Durack was very disappointing even if he was facing a couple of unexposed rivals that proved to be better than him anyway. Back to 10f and back on turf he stands a very good chance today (George Baker still on his saddle) racing off the same mark of 64 which saw him finishing second beaten just by Miss Cato at Yarmouth over 1m1f (good to soft) last month. Miss Cato has gone close off a 7lb higher mark on her next start and has bolted up on her last start off an 8lb higher mark and is now rated 18lb higher than when beating Kelpie Blitz by 2.75L at Yarmouth in April. That was a class 5 (0-70) handicap and this race is a class 6 (0-65) handicap so this is a little drop in class for Kelpie Blitz and his today's main rivals are Arabic and Joyful Spirit. Arabic is a very lightly raced (just his 5th career start) and represents a very good combination with Kieren Fallon on board and James Fanshawe at the training but the son of Dubai Destination has showed very little thus far and was 5th of 8 and beaten 4.5L by the winner at Lingfield last October when Kelpie Blitz finished 3/4L in front of him where he was outpaced in the final stages of the race and that was over 1m. That was his last start of 2011 but his seasonal/3yo/handicap debut 30 days ago at Kempton over 1m showed again very little (10th of 14 beaten 8.25L by the winner) in a race that hasn't worked out. Joyful Spirit is the other main danger since this filly trained by John Dunlop had finished on an upward curve her first season: 11th-12th-8th-5th and second on her first start over 1m (raced only over 7f before) at Windsor on good to firm last October, and confirmed a decent level of form upped again in distance on her first two starts this year, both over 1m2f at Nottingham (11 Apr, good to soft) and Goodwood (5 May, soft) both handicaps where she raced off a mark of 61 (60 today) to finish 5th and 4th (beaten 3.5L when 5th at Nottingham and 9.75L when 4th at Goodwood). Her last result could have been worse than her level because of the ground (very testing conditions) and back on sound surface this daughter of Invincible Spirit could build on her previous two good results (last start at two and seasonal debut at Nottingham) and above all she is wearing first time blinkers today which could be a big help. Still on what achieved and showed so far Kelpie Blitz seemed the most talented of them over today's distance (his second behind Miss Cato is by far the best form on offer here) and off current marks he could finally get off the mark.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 5.15 Brighton THE NEW BLACK 3pts to win @ 14/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) The New Black is a 3yo grey filly by Oratorio who won a selling stakes at Newbury over 7f on good ground last July (third career start) on her last start for Richard Hannon. 9th of 10 on her debut for Gay Kelleway last October over 7f on soft ground in her handicap debut off 65 she showed something more on her 3yo debut 17 days ago at Windsor over 1m (again off 65) when travelled very well for a long way and faded in the final furlong to finish 7th of 10. Dropped 2lb (63 today) with that useful comeback run under her belt, dropped to 7f, with first time visor on, back on sounder surface, well drawn in stall nr. 2 and in a very poor-looking race (she is the only winner on turf among these runners and the only winner over this distance) there is a lot on her favour and at current price it's surely worth a good bet.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 5.45 Brighton BEAT THE BELL 5pts to win @ 15/8 bog (Paddy Power) Beat The Bell is a very good sprinter who won 9 times in 51 starts and has been racing most of his career off marks in the high 80s-low 90s. His second last win came one and a half year ago off 84 and during the spring/summer 2011 he finished in the top3 in class 2-3 handicaps off 86, 88 and 90. After the winter break he had a couple of below par efforts in selling/claiming stakes on the Fibresand at Southwell (4th and 5th in April) and back on turf he finished 5th at Windsor (7 May) over 6f but on very soft ground (which he doesn't handle). Last time out (5 days ago) back on good ground and back with Jamie Osborne (spent his previous 26 months with David Barron but all his best results had come under the Jamie Osborne's training) over 6f at Goodwood the 7yo gelding by Beat All won very easily beating 3/4L the well backed My Kingdom with the pair well ahead of the remainder (the third finished 4.5L behind him). That win came with Leonna Mayor on board and off a mark of 74. Under a 6lb penalty he races off 80 today and that surely isn't a problem for Beat The Bell and in this race I can't see anyone able to stop him with Leonna Mayor, who claims 5lb, retained for the ride.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 6.45 sand its not very often bookies make silly mistakes but occasionally they throw up a horse that just looks a gift horse on paper and this is one of those rare oppurtunitys .in the hunt for value this is what i call a hidden treasure . plenty of potential improvers here ......baileys jubliee has talent but his speed ratings have been relatively poor of late and would need to improve to win this .storm moon ran a (77) lto and thats not bad and has the potential to improve on that so dangerous .......but can form readers out there tell me why MOSSTANG is being offered at 40/1 ? his recent run comes out at (82) on the clock some 5pts above storms moons and was eased down yet is 20x the price ? ......he may not improve like the others but just looks ridiculous price in 9 horse race !!! havent found many bets recently (quiet week) so im going to pile into this and chances are if betting is right then will finish down the field nearer last but if speed ratings hold up then he will be in first 3 at 40/1 .......worth a shot (imagine if it won ...? ) mosstang 10pts e.w 40/1 betvic

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May

6.45 sand its not very often bookies make silly mistakes but occasionally they throw up a horse that just looks a gift horse on paper and this is one of those rare oppurtunitys .in the hunt for value this is what i call a hidden treasure . plenty of potential improvers here ......baileys jubliee has talent but his speed ratings have been relatively poor of late and would need to improve to win this .storm moon ran a (77) lto and thats not bad and has the potential to improve on that so dangerous .......but can form readers out there tell me why MOSSTANG is being offered at 40/1 ? his recent run comes out at (82) on the clock some 5pts above storms moons and was eased down yet is 20x the price ? ......he may not improve like the others but just looks ridiculous price in 9 horse race !!! havent found many bets recently (quiet week) so im going to pile into this and chances are if betting is right then will finish down the field nearer last but if speed ratings hold up then he will be in first 3 at 40/1 .......worth a shot (imagine if it won ...? ) mosstang 10pts e.w 40/1 betvic
40/1 just gone now down to 20/1 with betvic but still at 33/1 with some bookies.....i mean its a 9 horse race and ive got 40/1 and presently he is top speed rated .....doesnt get much better than that win or lose
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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 6.35 newc ....... looks another good bet on paper ......FAITHFILLY ran an absolutely crackin time lto and could potentially beat that with conditions to suit .........9/4 with stan james looks a good win bet with opposition looking scarce at the moment and looks a good oppurtunity for the horse to get its first win faithfilly 4pts win 9/4 stan james

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May I had a nice write up all set to post until my comp crashed and I lost it. Basically said I fancy Godolphin to have a good day today and will be backing all of their horses today as singles and multiples. 4.10 Brighton Ibtahaj 7.20 Sandown Opinion Poll & Ley Hunter ew 7.55 Sandown Hunters Light 8.25 Sandown Irish History 8.55 Sandown Terdaad Ibtahaj and Opinion Poll are short priced favourites but should win. Godolphin were still banging in maiden winners when going through their quiet spell so I would expect Ibtahaj to be far too good. Opinion Poll is the class act of his race and should win if bringing his best form. That being said he could be vulnerable on the fast ground. Ley Hunter is an interesting contender on his first start since switching from France. He is a top class stayer and could run into a place. Hunters Light looks to have the toughest test of all of their runners but he could run well. I would want to be taking on Carlton House in the race. Irish History could be anything but he is my BBOTD and Terdaad should go close after his encouraging return to action at Kempton. He won't have been suited by the race panned out but he finished better than anything. He is lightly raced but improves with every run. He has drifted out to a nice price at 9/2.

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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May

6.15 Sandown - 3pts win Scottish Star @ 6/1 (Bet365) Was between this one and Chain Of Events here but the latter's strike-rate is a concern and James Eustace's runner is plenty unexposed and is going to relish the step up in trip today. This grey has clearly not been the easiest, hence only running five times in two years but this will be his 3rd run of the season so connections are clearly happy enough with him this time around. He didn't show a huge amount in two 7f maidens (the latter decent) but got off the mark when stepped up to 1m2f at Lingfield next time out. He didn't look the easiest and did take a keen hold early which is perhaps why he has been sent over 1m on both occasions this year since returning from an absence. He couldn't offer much after a break of over 12 months on softish ground at Yarmouth but showed he was capable when staying on dourly to retain his 100% record on the artificial surface at Kempton last time. He was under pressure for a long time up the straight - seemingly making little inroads - before a final burst near the finish saw him prevail in a blanket finish. He really looked like he'd enjoy further on this occasion, and the fact his dam stayed 2 miles as well as being by an 8-10f horse, it seems almost certain he will love the extra 2f on offer today (although like I said, he is a distance winner). He will need to switch off but if he does his mark is definitely exploitable as long as he proves himself as good on turf. I think he's had excuses on his efforts on grass to date so fingers crossed it's not just him showing he much prefers the all-weather. The faster conditions should suit him and he should run very well. He'll definitely be winning races but I guess this is the real test over whether it is likely to be mainly on the polytrack.
Always the most painful! :spank
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Re: Flat Racing; Thursday 31st May 19:10 Newcastle The one I like in this race is Tim Easterby's 4 year old Little Jimmy Odsox. This horse has only failed to make the first three in only one race from eight so far to date and that was in his reappearance this year at Ripon in a 13 runner handicap. He finished 8th that day and in my opinion was clearly in need of the run despite winning first time out in his maiden race last year. Was never in the race that day but a much improved effort last time out in what was his first try at seven furlongs where he finished only a head back in second place at Redcar just 17 days ago. He was short of room at one point in the race but kept on gamely inside the final furlong and had he not been denied space then he was the likely winner in my opinion. Gets in off the same mark today and although it was soft going at Redcar and good to firm tonight at Newcastle, his maiden win came on this ground so it's of no concern at all. He has previously finished 2nd at this track over 6 furlongs where he kept on towards the finish so it hints towards the fact he acts on the track as well despite only having such a short career to date. 2pt win @ 5/1 (Stan James)

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