FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

[richard-westwood]

6.30 KEMP tough little race this as many of these are coming into some form ,black cadillac will probably be fav and has been posting some decent times lately but wide draw tempers enthusiasm.the stand out horse in the race is OSIRIS WAY who has been posting some amazing times in defeat ....recorded a 91 here at kempton then a 87 but had poor draw and never got the run of the race ......hcapper has generously dropped him 2lbs and he now returns to kempton so is very capable on his day ,another horse that stands out is WOODEN KING who also ran a cracker at wolv .....this quicker track might not suit but posted a 93 at wolv so needs respect .both of these are nice value at current prices of 9/1 and 12/1 and i think they are cracking bets to take the likely fav on osiris way 1pt win 12/1 will hill wooden king 1pt win 9/1 paddy power

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY Decent-sized fields at Nottingham tomorrow. Not sure if that's a good or a bad thing!

[Aidymac]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY *Zain Princess - Kempton 8:00* I think this horse is far better suited to Polytrack, i think it does not like turf at all. It's form on turf is 9th of 15, 11th of 11 and 5th of 7. It's form on the polytrack is far better, 1st of 7, 3rd of 6, 2nd of 9 and 1st of 8. It's last run was on turf on heavy ground at Pontefract, and didn't go a yard on the ground, finishing nearly 30 lengths off the winner. But it's previous run was at Wolverhampton on the polytrack, where it travelled comfortably, picked up when asked, and won with a bit of authority. The step up in trip to 1m 4f is bound to suit also as the horse is out of Hawk Wing who was trained by Aidan O'Brien, and that animal was 2nd to High Chaparral over 1m 4f at Epsom in a Group 1. Zain Princess is running off 72 tomorrow, 6 pounds higher than when it won at Wolverhampton two runs back but should be able to cope with that rise, as it looks a progressive horse on polytrack. Gerard Butler is in good form at the moment, with his last runner winning at Ripon. He does well at Kempton and 2 of his last 8 runners at the track have won. Nicky Mackay also has a good record when riding for Butler, 161 rides resulting in 22 winners producing a profit of +£11.38 to level stakes, so at the prices, i feel this horse is worth a bet. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 VC BOG*

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY F.Norton has two nice rides today and both should be given a close market watch. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]13:45 Tue 22nd May [/TD] [TD]Nottingham[/TD] [TD]6f 15y[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD] Available (IRE) [/TD] [TD] J Mackie [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 15:15 Tue 22nd May [/TD] [TD]Nottingham[/TD] [TD]2m 9y[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD] Veloce (IRE) [/TD] [TD] Ian Williams[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[StuSimmy]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 15:45 Nottingham Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just the one horse to Nottingham today which I find very interesting and it is one of two booked rides for up and coming jockey Mickael Barzalona. The trainer holds a 17% strike rate at the track having had 5 winners from 30 runners. On to the horse itself, Eluding has yet to win from three maiden races so far but I find this horse interesting on her handicap debut here today off a mark of 77. She has yet to finish out the places and has hit prices of 2.04, 1.14 and 1.08 in running in those three races which suggests she has looked the likely winner on more than one occasion. The form of those races aren't the best by any means but two horses she wasn't beaten far by have went on to race in listed company and are rated as high as 93 and 89 which suggests to me her mark of 77 today is more than fair. The step up in trip is likely to suit and I expect her to progress once again today and hopefully she will land more than just place money in this race. 2pts win Eluding @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[Edberg]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 2.00 Brighton BOBBY'S DOLL 4pts to win @ 9/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Bobby's Doll is a 5yo mare but still pretty unexposed as she missed 1 year and a half due to some injuries and kept improving a lot during her 2011 campaign started it rated 51 and ended it rated 69 within 4 months (Apr-Aug). Her record on the turf is pretty good with 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds and 2 fourths in just 9 races and after a promising second 1L behind The Tatling at Yarmouth (30 Jun 2011) she won twice over today's C&D within 6 weeks (4 Jul - 16 Aug) and both times very easily. Her last success came in a race, (0-65) handicap, similar to today's one and she won easily racing off 64 with a 3lb claimer on board (RPR 73). Today she'll race off 68 but with a 7lb claimer on board she is actually off the same mark and this young and unexperienced jockey was on her first time out this season when she ran very well at Southwell (first ever run on Fibresand and she has a pretty poor overall record on the AW tracks). She had a bad draw (widest of all) and started pretty slow that day (17 Apr) and was still a few lengths behind the bunch 2f out but she stayed on very well in the last furlong and finished 3rd (RPR 73) just 2L behind the easy winner Gorgeous Goblin, who won again over the same C&D last time out off a 6lb higher mark, and a neck behind the 5/4 favourite of that race Da'Quonde who had easily won her previous start and went very close (beaten 1/2L) next/last time out off 1lb higher mark (upped 3lb more now). Bobby's Doll ran again after that nice seasonal comeback and it was at Lingfield over 6f where she was at the bottom of the market (18/1 shot) and ran no sort of a race finishing last tailed off. Her previous efforts on Polytrack have all been below her standard (one third in 6 starts) and so I'd like to excuse that last poor effort because on the evidence of that nice comeback run she is very well handicapped with today's 7lb claimer on and should be even in better form for her seasonal turf debut on her favourite C&D. The favourite Cut Across could be anything but he has a lot to prove since he ran only once and that was 101 days ago in a very poor maiden over 6f at Lingfield where he beat in a tight finish just a bunch of poor 3yo sprinters. he costed 150,000gns and is half-brother to two winning sprinters, including the Listed winner My Propeller, but as said he has first to prove how good he is and the fact he made his debut at 4 and didn't run after that race isn't that encouraging and today's opening mark in handicap (67) doesn't seem too easy (he recorded a RPR of 67 in that win at Lingfield and all the horses he beat that day have had a few runs since and all disappointed). The ground is officially good to firm and that's a big plus for Bobby's Doll who badly needs this kind of ground (all her wins and best efforts came on good to firm and Adam Beschizza, her jockey on her two wins over today's C&D, said both times that a fast ground was a key for her).

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 2.00 brighton cut across could be anything and should be able to handle the turf on faster ground but at around 7/2 i cant realistically back this horse as zero value .welsh inlet is always dangerous in sprints but might not appreciate the faster ground and extra weight is negative .imaginary diva has recorded a 83 over 5f so looks dangerous but there is a better horse with a rating of 85 in STONESCRABTOMORROW ......you never know which horse is going to turn up though as he can run some stinkers but he is also a bit of a brighton specialist and has posted some cracking times (best 88 here at brighton-good/firm).....has optimum conditions today so just a question of which horse turns up ....8/1 price looks generous ........negative is first run of the season but given his ability he would only have to be 90% of his best to take this stonescrabtomorrow 1 pt e.w 8/1 bet365

[Lars]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY WHITE DIAMOND (15:30) hasn’t been in bad form on her last two starts and was subject of a slightly too aggressive ride in a more competitive race this at Doncaster. Although untested at Brighton, the track should suit her and she’s still on a decent handicap rating, so has every chance of going close in a wide-open race. A winner over hurdles last season for Malcom Jefferson, she started life for the Michael Appleby stable with a very positive effort at Wolverhampton over 1m4f, running really well into 2^nd and looking she still had some scope for progression. This case could also be made by the fact she had some fair form last year over these sorts of trips running off marks in the 70’s, so it’s entirely plausible that she’d improve a tad from a rating of 68. She about ran to that mark last time out in an Amateur Riders Handicap, possibly being sent for home too soon and passed with relative ease by the front-three. She stuck on well enough for 4^th though and that was a much more competitive race than this one today, so she has definitely got a form chance. Brighton as a track should suit her, as her two wins have come on the fairly idiosyncratic tracks of Navan and Fakenham, so she doesn’t mind today’s sort of test and this is her trip, so she’s more than capable of going well. William Carson continues to impress in the saddle and rides for the first time for the Michael Appelby yard, a possible pointer in itself. This mare is overpriced, given she should enjoy Brighton given her past form and the track favouring those who like to be ridden prominently, she’s still well-handicapped on some of last year’s form and enjoys a sound surface. She should be around the 8/1 mark I feel, and is worth backing until that sort of price. ARMIGER (17:30) likely enters the last chance saloon today given he’s only rated 49 and can hardly fall much lower, but I’ve always thought they’d be a race in him at some point and although his last three efforts have been abhorrent to say the least, I’ve found enough excuses to suggest that he could be worth a bet today if those excuses are legitimate. He looked like a horse that had a bit of a future on his first couple of starts but slowly dropped down the handicap ranks as a juvenile, not particularly showing a great deal. That being said, his effort on seasonal reappearance was far from shoddy and indicated there was a race within him, finishing the race well over 6f. He looked like he’d come on bundles for that but hasn’t at all. His next start could well have just been an awful run as he never looked happy, while his subsequent two outings I think were particularly poor due to soft ground, and next time an adverse reaction to blinkers, forcing him to do too much in front. That headgear has been discarded and I’m willing to give Armiger one more chance. He should be at home on a sound surface and certain efforts over 6f, as well as his pedigree suggest that this 7f trip should be within range. He might have lost the plot entirely but William Carson is a positive booking (last rode this horse when it was sent off 5/1). If I’m right about the reasons for his last three poor runs, a bold show would not surprise. WEST LEAKE (20:30) returns to his best trip tonight and has fallen to an extremely workable mark given that he’s been running at the wrong distances on his four starts in 2012. Back under the right conditions and dropped in grade, he has every chance of putting up a big performance tonight. A three-time C&D winner, he’s won at a trip of a mile before (at Lingfield) but unless they go really quickly early on, he pulls far too hard over that trip and fails to get home. That pretty much sums up the story of the majority of recent efforts, especially his latest start over that mile trip. West Leake isn’t a complete lost cause form wise however, as his penultimate start when dropped to the slightly too sharp distance of 6f was promising, staying on well and still shaping that ability was still present. This is his first start at 7f this year and he’s now 8lbs lower than when he last tried this trip, alongside that he’s 3lbs lower than his last C&D victory. He’s a horse who always tries his best unless given an aggressive front running ride and enjoys being held-up off a strong pace over this sort of trip, so with the likes of Dvinksy and Fenella Fudge in attendance, a decent gallop should ensue. If it does and West Leake settles nicely in the rear, then he has every chance of really close off a mark of 60. He’s easily capable of running to about 70 when everything falls his way (often doesn’t) but with that more likely today and the price making it a risk worth taking, then he’s definitely a bet. In a race where there’s likely going to be a decent gallop, over his best trip and back to a workable handicap rating, West Leake will go well. Bets 15:30 Brighton – White Diamond; 1pt @ 11/1 Bet365, BetVictor (bog) 17:30 Brighton – Armiger; 1pt @ 40/1 William Hill (bog) 20:30 Kempton – West Leake; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

[harrisman]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

2.00 brighton cut across could be anything and should be able to handle the turf on faster ground but at around 7/2 i cant realistically back this horse as zero value .welsh inlet is always dangerous in sprints but might not appreciate the faster ground and extra weight is negative .imaginary diva has recorded a 83 over 5f so looks dangerous but there is a better horse with a rating of 85 in STONESCRABTOMORROW ......you never know which horse is going to turn up though as he can run some stinkers but he is also a bit of a brighton specialist and has posted some cracking times (best 88 here at brighton-good/firm).....has optimum conditions today so just a question of which horse turns up ....8/1 price looks generous ........negative is first run of the season but given his ability he would only have to be 90% of his best to take this stonescrabtomorrow 1 pt e.w 8/1 bet365

agree about Stone Crabbs around Brighton!! price way too big Taken 10.5's on Betfair now!!

[Edberg]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 4.00 Brighton PENANG CINTA 4pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Ladbrokes) Penang Cinta is a 9yo gelding trained by David Evans since February 2007. This son of Halling has collected 12 wins, 7 seconds and 11 thirds in 73 career starts so far winning from 7f to 1m4f, 3 wins came on the AW but 9 wins and 6 seconds came all on turf and mainly here at Brighton. His record over this track is just outstanding: since the 23th June 2009 Penang Cinta ran here at Brighton 12 times (first 10 over 1m4f, last two over 1m2f) and he achieved 6 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third and 1 fourth so he wasn't in the frame just once. He's won even off 70 in May 2010 but his 5 races here at brighton last season were: a win in May off 57, a second and a third in June off 61 (all over 1m4f), another win (his last success) in October off 57 with a 3lb claimer on and a 4th of 11 a week later over the same C&D off 63. He ran in Jersey 15 days ago and was a bit disappointing finishing only third in a race where he was the 4/6 favourite but that effort should have helped him to get back in form and ready for this race. He's gonna race off 59 but with a 5lb claimer on board (Matthew Cosham is one of the best 5lb claimers around and has already won 13 races from just 101 rides this year) Penang Cinta's actually off 54 just as the day he won over today's C&D last October (good to firm that day too). Stable not firing of late but they won already 20 races in 2012 and David Evans has saddled 15 winners here at Brighton from 107 runners (14%) in the last 5 seasons (6 of them thanks to Penang Cinta) and so the Monmouths-based trainer has a good record over this track. The three current market leaders are Cahala Dancer, Resplendent Alpha and Lord Of The Storm. Cahala Dancer is a 4yo filly still very lightly raced (11th career start today) but still maiden. She achieved her best result last time out at Bath when very close second in a handicap over 1m (soft) off 53 with a 5lb claimer on board, with the same apprentice jockey on board she had finished again second 11 days earlier here at Brighton over 1m on good to soft in a classified stakes, both times sent-off favourite she was outpaced in the final 100 yards over 1m and her only previous try over today's distance (1m2f) at Lingfield 5 weeks ago was her worst ever effort so there are big stamina doubts about her also on pedigree as her sire is mainly a sprinter-miler stallion and she races today off 55 which is not only 2lb higher than her last mark but without the 5lb claimer on board makes it 7lb higher than last time out. Resplendent Alpha has to be the horse who ran more races of all the horses in Europe in the last two months. To be more precise this 8yo chestnut gelding is gonna run his 8th race within the last 6 weeks today. He's been usually very consistent over any kind of surface (Polytrack, Fibresand, soft, good) and distance (7f-1m4f) and during these 6 weeks he collected 1 win, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Resplendent Alpha's last success came over 1m4f at Southwell 14 days ago off 59 so today's mark of 57 seems not bad even if all his best results came on the AW (6 wins and 10 seconds in 55 starts) while on turf his overall record is still pretty poor with just 1 win and 4 seconds in 35 starts and that win came at Newmarket over 6f (had been campaigned mainly over 6f for most of his career before last winter) in 2008. So today's mark seems within his actual possibilities as he didn't run too bad last time out (4 days ago) on turf over 1m4f at Newbury off 63 with a 3lb claimer on board finishing 3rd of 12 losing 2nd in the final 100yards and that means, considering the 5lb claimer on board for today's race, he's off an 8lb lower mark than last time out. Lord Of The Storm is a 4yo gelding trained by Bill Turner who has been in sparkling form of late: 5 winners and 2 seconds from his last 10 runners during the last fortnight. The horse won twice as a 2yo (both in selling stakes over 7f at Yarmouth and Catterick) but after a pretty disappointing 2011 he showed big improvements this season finishing 1st and second over today's C&D on his first two starts of the 2012. Lord Of The Storm won 4 weeks ago off 50 with a 3lb claimer on board (good to soft ground) and finished a close second (beaten by Byrd In Hand who had finished second off 6lb worse terms the time before) over the same C&D 19 days ago (soft ground) racing off 56 (again with the same 3lb claimer on board). His revised mark is 59 and Bill Turner has booked for that reason a 7lb claimer for today's race so that he's actually off a 1lb lower mark on adjusted figures today. So both Resplendent Alpha and Lord Of The Storm stand a good chance (more than Cahala Dancer imho) but Penang Cinta still stands out at current weights if still retaining his abilities at the age of 9 (he did just few months ago so why not?) over his favourite C&D.

[Edberg]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 4.30 Brighton VERTIBES 3pts to win @ 6/1 bog (Betvictor) Vertibes is a very lightly raced 4yo, first foal of a 7.5f winner in France, trained by Marcus Tregoning and this will be just his 5th career start. He made his debut only last December (already gelded) at Lingfield in a maiden over 1m2f where he finished 3rd. He was far too green to give himself a chance but the way he ran on suggests he has ability. He ran again 8 days later over 1m4f at Kempton finishing 5th of 10. He was still very green and probably that race came too soon and he didn't appreciate the longer distance. After the winter break he made his seasonal debut at Yarmouth over 1m finishing 7th of 13 in a little hot maiden where he was giving a lot of weight all around as he carried 9st13lb and for example Flacon In Flight, who made an impressive winning debut that day, was carrying just 8-7 (21lb lighter than Vertibes) and the Jeremy Noseda-trained 3yo has got a rating of 84 after that easy win but in that race there were a lot of interesting 3yos like Godolphin's Periphery who finished 5th and is another 83-rated 3yo beaten a nose last time out. Vertibes' last effort was again at Yarmouth over 1m1f three weeks ago (1 May) on heavy ground. The ground was totally against him and he ran no sort of a race in what was his handicap debut (off 62) and finished last of 8 tailed off. He's been dropped 4lb since and with today's 7lb claimer he's actually racing off an 11lb lower mark on adjusted figures today. Marcus Tregoning's yard couldn't be in better form as the Lambourn-based trainer saddled 5 winners and 1 second from his last 6 runners last week. This is a very poor-looking race with Brown Pete and the heavily gambled Toga Tiger the current market leaders. Brown Pete ran two good races on his last two outings finishing twice second, first over 1m at Southwell off 53 and last time out over today's C&D (but on soft ground) 19 days ago off 55. The Richard Guest-trained 4yo is surely in good form and could be still able to improve a bit but never seemed to be particularly gifted and is way more exposed than my selection of course. As far as concerned Toga Tiger the market speaks strongly in his favour of course but on paper it's a bit hard to fancy at those short odds currently available. The Jeremy Gask-trained 5yo won only once in 16 starts on turf and that win came in June 2009 over 7f at Lingfield (a maiden auction for 2yos) and one month later won his only other race again over 7f at Kempton on his nursery debut (off 82). He's been hugely disappointing since (never in the top 3 in 16 starts) and went missing since October 2010 before his comeback last November when he finished 11th of 12 and has been missing since again. This is a poor race and he's been dropped to 48 so if he retains a bit of ability he can surely win but it's not for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY 3.15 Nottingham - 3pts win Descaro @ 11/2 (Skybet) Staying handicap and David O'Meara's gelding will have to defy a mark he hasn't managed to do so in the past, but he's only 2lbs higher than a winning mark and I'm hopeful considering he's put in some good efforts off higher in the past. I don't think there's too much to get worried about in the field as the others towards the head of the weights have question marks, other than Veloce - who finds winning hard. The same applies for Hallstatt and it may be that Descaro's class shines through at the end. The trainer sends this as his only hope of the day and similarly, Daniel Tudhope takes his only ride of the afternoon. He's a tough stayer who has had excuses recently and should be spot on for this having had a couple of runs this season. He doesn't have a great record first time up so his reappearance effort can be excused and he attempted a trip of 2m5f last time at Pontefract in the mud and a combination of those two things went against him. All four of his career wins have come on a sound surface which he gets today, and the trip suits. He won third time up last season 1161343533019 is his record in staying races on ground good or better so he's usually consistent and some of those have been good efforts in big fields (and the 9th after a break). Conditions will be spot on today and I think he can defy this mark of 71.

[Aidymac]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

F.Norton has two nice rides today and both should be given a close market watch. [TABLE] [TR] [TD] 13:45 Tue 22nd May [/TD] [TD] Nottingham [/TD] [TD] 6f 15y [/TD] [TD] 5 [/TD] [TD] Available (IRE) [/TD] [TD] J Mackie [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 15:15 Tue 22nd May [/TD] [TD] Nottingham [/TD] [TD] 2m 9y [/TD] [TD] 5 [/TD] [TD] Veloce (IRE) [/TD] [TD] Ian Williams [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Hope you have them backed, and in a double mate. Nice spot!

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

Hope you have them backed' date=' and in a double mate. Nice spot![/quote'] Aint moved from the one spot in the last 10 Mins. 1 word Aidy - Boooooom !

[cpo]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY Marvelino playing up and running with just 3 shoes. I have backed him and won't be happy if he goes in the stalls

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY just having a play with the ratings ........im trying to teach the spreadsheet how to distinguish a class rating and combine it with the speed rating to produce a master rating ....im convinced that if i can get it right its the key to the gold mine .......ive always been convinced that that was the secret to making big money in racing .......so ive firstly got a speed rating that works and now ive just got try and find the best way to distinguish class .........ive programmed the spreadsheet earlier with its first attempt and tried my 6.30 race at kempton where i had osiris way (3rd) and it picked royal bajan who pissed on them (beginners luck i reckon ) ......so im trying the 8.30 kemp i woudnt advise anyone to follow these for the moment during testing phase as probably go tits up ....... computer is advising me to back west leake 10/1 betvic and perfect chi 11/1 with boyles , may as well give it a go for a few bets and see what happens ,im certain if i can crack this then theres some big winners to be found as a horse that combines speed and class is nigh on unstoppable.....2x 1pt wins

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Kempton 9:00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Hurriya [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 22/05/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 0.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Best runs had been on the all-weather. 5th of 8 by 6 3/4 lengths at Southwell (6f) on debut last October. 6th of 11 by 3 lengths in penultimate run at Lingfield (1m). It's worth to forgive her last run with it on Soft going at Newcastle. She did however had plenty of market support being the 12/5 favorite. Her previous trainer was Saeed Bin Suroor and bred by Darley so she is capable of progressing o nthis surface. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

just having a play with the ratings ........im trying to teach the spreadsheet how to distinguish a class rating and combine it with the speed rating to produce a master rating ....im convinced that if i can get it right its the key to the gold mine .......ive always been convinced that that was the secret to making big money in racing .......so ive firstly got a speed rating that works and now ive just got try and find the best way to distinguish class .........ive programmed the spreadsheet earlier with its first attempt and tried my 6.30 race at kempton where i had osiris way (3rd) and it picked royal bajan who pissed on them (beginners luck i reckon ) ......so im trying the 8.30 kemp i woudnt advise anyone to follow these for the moment during testing phase as probably go tits up ....... computer is advising me to back west leake 10/1 betvic and perfect chi 11/1 with boyles , may as well give it a go for a few bets and see what happens ,im certain if i can crack this then theres some big winners to be found as a horse that combines speed and class is nigh on unstoppable.....2x 1pt wins

big gamble on perfect chi 12 into 7/1 both heavily gambled before the off ....west leake 3rd ....promising

[StuSimmy]

Re: FLAT RACING TUES 22ND MAY

15:45 Nottingham Mahmood Al Zarooni sends just the one horse to Nottingham today which I find very interesting and it is one of two booked rides for up and coming jockey Mickael Barzalona. The trainer holds a 17% strike rate at the track having had 5 winners from 30 runners. On to the horse itself, Eluding has yet to win from three maiden races so far but I find this horse interesting on her handicap debut here today off a mark of 77. She has yet to finish out the places and has hit prices of 2.04, 1.14 and 1.08 in running in those three races which suggests she has looked the likely winner on more than one occasion. The form of those races aren't the best by any means but two horses she wasn't beaten far by have went on to race in listed company and are rated as high as 93 and 89 which suggests to me her mark of 77 today is more than fair. The step up in trip is likely to suit and I expect her to progress once again today and hopefully she will land more than just place money in this race. 2pts win Eluding @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG)

Just held off beaten by a neck :( One I will certainly be keeping an eye on though.