Jumps Racing - Weds 16th May

[Blazing Bailey]

Fontwell 455 - Hobbs Dream 9/2 1pt Win Bet365 Im not normally a fan of Fontwell, which is a shame because it is probably the closest jumps track to me, but I believe the form is slightly more easier to read on drier ground so I will have a go at this race. I havent got any real confidence in my selection if I am brutally honest and if I hadnt spent time looking through the runners of the race I would probably have left it alone, but I think that Hobbs Dream should have a decent shout in a weak race. Her last 2 chase starts have been uninspiring to say the least having fallen & tailed off, but her run which was over hurdles wasnt too bad despite being beaten by 13l considering the pace of the race over that trip was never going to suit. If she can revert back to her Wincanton form where she beat horse who only lost by a nose NTO then she could take some beating in conditions which really should suit given Fontwell's stamina sapping hill finish. Beware Chalk Pit has some decent older form but hasnt shown anything whatsoever recently & neither Accumulus or Local Present look to be in any sort of form that could win them this race. The Clyda Rover is currently the 9/4 Fav but his LTO C&D win looks a bit suspect and Im not sure the form will hold true. It was a tough race and running only 12 days later could further hinder his chances. Having shown very little before hand Im not convinced he will follow up and at that price he is probably layable. Might As Well is a horse that will want the better ground, but bar one run when 8L behind Hobbs Dream, he hasnt really shown enough for me. Venetian Lad is probably the only other interesting horse in the race. His 3rd at Plumpton 3 runs back has been franked by the 1st & 2nd who have won and placed since off higher marks. I do think that this one could have a shout but im not convinced he will get the trip, especially here and previous attempts have left him treading water at the end, while stronger stayers plough past him. For that reason alone I will pass but anyone bets in running, this could be one to lay at a short price in the last couple of furlongs.

[Edberg]

Re: Jumps Racing - Weds 16th May 2.10 Fontwell DOCTOR RIC 3pts to win @ 3/1 bog (Bet365) Doctor Ric is a former Irish PTP winner (on good to firm last April) who had just two races over hurdles in 2011 (2nd and 3rd) and made his seasonal/chase debut at Plumpton 5 weeks ago (2m1f, soft, novices' chase). It was a race with just 4 runners but he had to face horses rated 134 and 121 (giving 5lb to the 121-rated one) and still finished 3rd but only 13L behind the second and 23L from the winner in what was surely not a bad race as the second bolted up next time out (off an 8lb lower mark) and the winner Current Event is a well regarded French-bred horse trained by Paul Nicholls who had finished 3rd behind Fingal Bay in a Grade 2 over hurdles last October and had won his first two chases completing the hat-trick in that race. Doctor Ric was very keen to post on what was his first start for six months and made a bad mistake at the top of the hill on the final circuit that killed his chances but even if not fully asked for a major effort he kept well on and finished not far from the Venetia Williams-trained Nobunaga. With that experience under his belt he's making his debut in handicap off a handy mark of 90. The horse to beat here is Catspan who was a bit unlucky on his second last start when he fell at the last fence at Plumpton (2m4f, good) when clear of the reminder with Beau Colonel (he made all that day) but back to that track over a shorter trip (2m1f, good to soft) he was a bit disappointing last time out (11/10 favourite, finished 2nd of 4 but well beaten). Catspan gets the 17-time champion jockey on board and that's a big plus but isn't a reliable horse especially at current prices, fell twice in his first 4 starts over fences and was very disappointing also over hurdles in his two starts in 2011 and he found very little under pressure last time out so I rate him nothing special while Doctor Ric could still make a decent chaser (surely more unexposed and coming from an encouraging debut over fences after a long break).