Flat Racing - Mon 14th May

[RussP]

2 bets to start the week off. 2.00 Redcar 9f Class 5 handicap for 3yo's only. 12 go to post for this and it's a race where I feel there's horses that haven't yet shown their hand which could prove to be overpriced. That's where I'm putting my focus for this bet: Adili (2pts EW @ 11/1 BetVictor BOG) - Starts off in handicap company today after 3 maiden runs on the AW and looks like it should be well suited by this switch to soft ground on turf. Hails from an in form stable and has 3lb claimer up top. Is fit from the AW as this one only made its debut back in January. All 3 runs have been at Southwell and only the middle run has any significance as the other 2 were over a trip that's far too short in 6f. Unsurprisingly, it was outpaced in both those races and they can be easily ignored. Sandwiched in between those efforts was a highly promised 4th of 6 where our selection would have finished 2nd had the jockey not eased the horse down. Winner that day is now rated 83 and Adili would have finished pretty close that day if the jockey hadn't been adamant on picking up a 10 day ban!! The jockey put up 3lb overweight too so the effort needs upgrading further. Mid race, when the pace quickened, it was also caught a bit flat footed, being outpaced before staying again, so I'm again convinced this step up in trip will be in its favour. Breeding also suggest 9f will pose my problems. All 3 of those runs were at Southwell which is a clear indicator that soft ground on turf will suit so, whilst the horse is unexposed and could be anything, I think 11/1 is way too big a price to ignore in a poor race. 2.30 Redcar A small field of 8 for this Class 4 handicap over 7f. I think there are question marks aplenty over the market leaders and I'd prefer to be on one at an EW price with good form in the book and scope for improvement. That comes in the shape of: Little Jimmy Odsox (2pts EW @ 15/2 BetVictor BOG) - A 4yo but very lightly raced with just 6 starts on the clock, including 3 wins as well as that all important soft ground form. This may sound stupid with just 8 runners but is drawn right next to the pace which may give our selection a tiny advantage and it's certainly a contributory factor. Also interesting that stable jockey gets the leg up on what the market suggests is the stables 2nd string. I don't agree! Won on GS on its only start here over 5f but looked like further will suit. Probably its best effort was a 2nd to the promising Laylas Hero at Newcastle on soft ground over 6f. Was staying on very well that day over a stiff 6f so step up to an easy 7f should be well within reach, especially as the 'outpaced' comment also applied in the race. Was midfield on seasonal reappearance which almost certainly is the reason for such generous odds but I don't think the race was run to suit that day, nor did it get the best passage through. Was however noted as staying on which again suggests this step up in trip is a positive. Will love the cut in the ground, looks capable of progressing further and has recorded figures that suggest mark is within reach so I'll take a chance that this one could prevail in perfect conditions.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 14th May not much out today ....... 2.15 wolv collectable 77 new romantic 77 zuzzu angel 73 trappy little race with non of these having much form but new romantics speedr ating is from his c/d run last year and a reproduction of that would give him serious chances in this relatively weak race ,collectable looks dangerous also but i had new romantic priced up at 13/2 and he is available at 14.0 on betfair so a definate play for me .may not be fit after layoff but weak race and wont take much winning new romantic 2pts win 14.0 betfair 2pts place 4.1 betfair