Following The Money.... Market Movers....

[The Saint]

Right…. In light of the continued success of Aidymac’s Market Movers, and me fast becoming a dinosaur at this game, I thought I/we should investigate further…. Some background – I have always been a student of form, producing my own hcap figures and producing serious results. I’m not prepared to go into figures – that would be crass but following 6 years of continued success, I gave up work to pursue the horses on a FT basis 3 years ago. For about the last 12 months, and this year in particular, due to other commitments(looking after 1 year old daughter) I have found it increasingly difficult to keep up with it all and am fast considering chucking it in. AW was as it always has been but that was only 2 meetings a day max!! I am struggling with the concept of ‘value’ and finding the price I want to back a horse at particularly hard to find – especially while trying to keep accounts open! Losing runs that never used to bother me are also becoming a bigger issue than they should be. This is largely irrelevent! However, I am starting to think that this approach is becoming outdated and other, more simple factors, are more important and persuasive. I have long viewed the ‘market’ as the strongest indicator as to a horses chance but have never been able to factor it into my selections. If any mates were having their annual day or 2 at the races, I would just advise them of the market movers and they would normally come home showing a profit. I’m just not sure how to take advantage of this and am (with respect to a profitable system) very reluctant to follow the money without any research of my own. If I had been around at the start of the market movers, to be honest, I would have thought it was destined to fail. Not without fair reason – I would have assumed (apparently incorrectly) that by the time(be it 11 or 12 o clock!) that the holy grail of ‘value’ would have disappeared. If this is not the case – and from results it would certainly appear not to be – what does it mean and how can we profit from it!? Is it just a blip or are ‘gambles’ more powerful than ever because Bookmakers no longer take a view and just follow Betfairian Prices? So I think what I am questioning is… Will it continue to pay to blindly follow the money or is it just a blip? And at what point does a gamble cease to offer any value – and does it even matter as so many of them are being landed!? You have to hand it to the Market Movers Thread – rightly or wrongly, it is providing the best results in the forum at the moment by a long way!! It appears that (perhaps with people being forced onto Betfair due to Bookmakers closing accounts so readily) the market has become so efficient that it is by far the greatest indicator of a horses chance regardless of form or that due to hard times/recession that the game has gone completely bent and more and more gambles are being plotted and landed in order to make a buck!! I couldn’t tell you which – If you are making money from it then who cares to an extent I guess. I just think it is a worthwhile discussion to be had. Perhaps I am just getting frustrated with my own bad form – tis a possibility that has not escaped me! As I say – am reluctant to just follow the money but (with absolute respect to Aidy, Julius et al) it would seem to be a much simpler more successful approach than my traditional one with the form book, speed rating, trainer form, ground consideration, draw data, jockey, course suitability etc etc!! I could consider all 'blue'/movers once they have moved and just back the ones that I think can win on their previous form? Do you think these gambles are being landed by horses that are just 'ready' that day or by absolute 'plot' jobs where a horses ability has been hidden? A further consideration is that if all blue selections are showing a very clear profit, could all red selections (under a certain price for sure) show a profit laying them? Your thoughts Gentlemen!!:)

[fintron]

Re: Following The Money.... Market Movers.... Interesting topic. Two questions I have for the 'money followers' 1) how do you know whether the support is genuine (and not just bookies shortening prices inline with published forecasts such as the RPF, or whether the gamble is bookies shortening to fein a gamble from the yards with reputations) 2) are there certain times when market support should be deemed more significant? ATR have their market movers feature every morning. I wonder how profitable following those horses have been. If guys on here are making profit from these methods then I guess the proof of the pudding is in the eating and there must be some mileage in it. I don't like the thought of following something just because the masses are personally, and would like to see clues in the formbook first, and then use market support to strengthen that opinion afterwards, rather than using it as the driving force behind a bet. Sometimes though you just know that a price is wrong and even if the masses are pushing it out and it drifts, it can win. So if you were a market examiner, you'd miss such bets. I steamed into a horse called Sulis Minerva the other week, took 7/1, 6/1, 5/1 and even 4/1. Due to support for the favourite, the price then drifted out to a whopping 8/1 at the off. I stuck to my principals and backed it back up the odds scale again and included it in a series of multiples, so it was a great result when it won, one that more than compensated for the times when I've gone back in to back a drifter and it has ran like a pig. I don't like that feeling when a horse has been smashed beyond all recognition and you may be complating getting on at, say 6/4, when it was 5/2 earlier or whatever. That happened to me with Ballesteros yesterday. Missed the early prices, didn't want to get involved at the morning prices. Those morning prices still beat the SP and the horse hacked up, but I'd skipped it and backed an alternative. Long term I think you have that feeling in your stomach don't you - whether you should be backing at the lowered odds or just passing up the bet altogether, backing an alternative, or ducking the race.