Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

[Stevet1859]

1:35 Chester: Grissom 1pt win 12/1 William Hill If could pay to forgive Grissom his last couple of runs. The reason for doing so is his inside draw today which is often key to races at Chester. Add in the fact he is only a couple of pounds higher than his last win in a decent race at Doncaster in August and Grissom's price makes some appeal. Grisson has run here a few times and seemed to handle the course although he did not enjoy much luck in running. Tim Easterby has hit a little purple patch in the last couple of days. 3:05 Chester: Sonko 1pt win 8/1 Blue Square Picking a horse on the basis of an owner is probably not a winning strategy long term. However, Dr Marwan Koukash has aquired Sonko and he certainly has an eye for a horse and he particularly likes doing well at Chester. Sonko has an improving profile and while most of her recent runs have been on the all weather she handled the good to soft going when winning at Thirsk last August. Sonko is a front runner and if she bounces out of the stalls here, she may take some pulling back.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 1.35 Chester KYLLACHY STAR 4pts to win @ 7/2 (Bluesq) Kyllachy Star is one of the four runners owned by Dr Marwan Koukash. All of them stand a decent chance but he looks his best one. The 6yo gelding by Kyllachy trained by Richard Fahey is in perfect form as he had a very good seasonal debut after a long break (didn't race since September) finishing 2nd in the Spring Mile at Doncaster (a 22-runnner handicap (£24k to the winner) that opened the turf season 6 weeks ago) off 90 (91 today). Kyllachy Star won this race one year ago off 94 (3lb higher than today) and from stall number 12 (nr. 4 today). He handles the ground very well (won on heavy (5L ahead of the second) and has a couple of very good performances in defeat on soft/heavy) and he loves this track because his form over this track before his last win in this race one year ago reads: 2-1-4-2-1, some disappointing efforts afterwards later in 2011 but he had been struggling to show his best form off his new higher mark (97). Fahey has saddled 8 winners in the last fortnight and even if he's had only one winner at this year's Chester Festival so far all his horses have been running pretty well (two seconds and three thirds). Pintura got beaten last year by Kyllachy Star (2nd a head behind) and faces the same rival off 2lb worse terms and his form in three races this year has been pretty poor as most of the David Simcock's horses (1 winner from 30 runners so far on turf in 2012). Light From Mars would be nicely treated off 92 and Franny Norton knows how to ride a winner over this track but the horse came here only once and finished tailed off with his jockey reporting he hated the track. Moreover after his nice success (beating Pintura) in the Spring Cup 2011 he has never finished better than 7th in his next/last 7 starts (last two this year). Fathsta is the other runner owned by the Doctor and trained by Simcock. The horse won over this track once and collected two seconds and one third (racing mainly over 7f and even 6f), he handles the ground but over a trip a bit too long for him it could be a worry, the top form he showed between 2010 and 2011 (won in impressive style the Sprint Trophy at York, 6f, soft, in October 2010 off 94) seems gone now and the yard's form has to be a main concern too. Among the others the best chance seems again for a Richard Fahey-trained horse She's A Character who's got the widest draw (stall nr. 10) but won in nice style on her seasonal reappearance two weeks ago at Doncaster (1m, soft, off 76) and will be ridden by Paul Hanagan. She went close off 80 and 82 last season so the 5lb rise (due to race off 81 today) doesn't seem too harsh. I dunno the logic behind the jockeys bookings but it's strange that Hanagan is on her and not on Kyllachy Star (the champion jockey was on him for last year's win in this race). Another gelding by Kyllachy stands a pretty solid chance in this race: Dubai Dynamo. The 7yo represents the Ruth Carr's yard that have been flying high at the moment (4 winners and 13 top5 with their last 20 runners during the last fortnight). The horse ran already 6 times in 2012 (started on the AW) and collected just a couple of thirds but also in 2011 it took him a while to catch his best form (4 races then with his first win that came on April the 30th) but after he got it he had collected 2 wins and 4 seconds in 6 races ran within two months (30 Apr-25 Jun) and his best result after that fantastic run during 2011 spring came in September when he ran here at Chester over 7f and finished 2nd beaten a head racing off 91 (87 today). So a nice race as usual but Kyllachy Star stands out on form, trainer's form, record over the track (the only C&D winner), draw and current handicap mark. I'd liked to have Hanagan on board instead of Hamilton but you can't get everything :)

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 2.05 Chester BONFIRE 5pts to win @ 5/6 bog (Bet365, Betvictor) A short priced favourite here but very big confidence. This 3yo trained by Andrew Balding won in nice style on his debut over 1m at Salisbury on soft ground (28 Sep) and was an unlucky third at Saint-Cloud in the Criterium International (Group 1, 1m, very soft) beaten 1.75L by French Fifteen, the leader of this generation in France who got just beaten by Camelot in the British 2000 Guineas. Bonfire is a huge hope for the Highcler Thoroughbred team and Andrew Balding for the Epsom Derby and even with a bit of concern for the testing conditions (he already handled very well last year on his first two career races) he stands out in a small field where O'Brien-trained Astrology seems the only possible danger. The son of Galileo won on his debut and finished twice third in two little hot races (Group 2 and Group 3) beaten by Dragon Pulse and Rockinante (well beaten to say the truth) in his 2yo season but could improve upped in distance (pedigree and trainer's plans would underline that idea) and holds a Derby entry.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 3.05 Chester BALLESTEROS 5pts to win @ 2/1 bog (most of the bookies) When I look at a sprint handicap I often pay more attention to the form and the draw (if important) and not at the handicap marks. Could be a mistake but that's been a good help in this kind of races over the last few years and so I have little worried about the 6lb rise that Ballesteros is gonna face here and on the evidence of his last win (4th success in his last 6 races never winning with a margin bigger than 1L but always showing great battling qualities) I do really give him a big chance here today as he loves this ground and has got a perfect draw and the best jockey on board. Today's rivals don't seem too strong. Bubbly Ballerina won over this C&D last September but has been nothing special on her seasonal reappearance two days ago here and has got the widest draw. Sonko has been just bought by the Doctor but faces a tough task after she's been upped 13lb for her last nice win (7 Jan) at Lingfield (AW) in a weaker race. Her only success on turf came in a 2yo claimer at Thirsk last August (rated 62 back then) and off 84, facing the track and these testing conditions for the first time after a 4-month break, in a company way tougher than the ones she had been racing in makes her very hard to fancy even if her last three races (Dec 2011-Jan 2012) showed a lot of improvements (but racing off 67-71 in weak AW sprints) and she could keep building on that. Pale Orchid has been running very well since December. She won 3 races, collected 3 seconds and was twice 4th in Listed before finishing 6th in another Listed over 6f at Kempton last time out (9 days ago). She is a talented sprinter but off her current mark of 91 she seems to be in the grip of the handicapper now even if this is a little drop in class for her. Dam Beautiful is one of the most lightly raced runners of this race and she has just added a nice success to her first win she had got on her debut last June. She had added a good third in a Listed and a decent 5th in a Group 3 (over 6f and 5f) last year and after a modest seasonal debut at Newmarket (10th) she showed her best winning in very nice style over 5f at Hamilton (good to soft) 5 days ago (Vocational 4th and well beaten) and races here with a 6lb penalty. She doesn't have a nice draw here and never raced on very testing conditions and over this special track but usually comes off the pace and is surely in top form.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 3.40 Chester VIVA RONALDO 4pts to win @ 15/2 (Stan James, Skybet) Viva Ronaldo represents a top yard (Fahey) in very good form and has the champion jockey on board. The horse won on the AW this winter and has probably been prepared for this meeting as he does really love this kind of tracks. Has got a perfect draw and even if his current mark isn't that helpful (84) he bolted up off 81 last June over this C&D (he is one of the three C&D winners in this race) and was second of 12 off 82 again over C&D off 82. Having a look at his RPRs it's nice to underline that he performed his best ever (99), second best (97) here at Chester and in the last 3 years his best performances based on RPRs (88-93-93-84) came all over this track. It's a very open race on paper but I'm going with a C&D specialist which should be in good form and has got a very good draw and the best jockey on board.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 4.45 Chester MICA MIKA 2pts to win @ 5/2 bog (most of the bookies) I finish my long list of bets at Chester again with a horse trained by Fahey and ridden by Hanagan. Mica Mika is another course specialist, appreciates the testing conditions, runs very well fresh and is very well handicapped on his best form showed in the first part of last season (lost his form after summer) since he finished twice second off a 7lb higher mark and once came just at this course over trip a little bit shorter (11.4f). The main danger is English Summer but he's been racing very bad of late and even if he won here last year over a bit further (13.4f) he's still 4lb higher and on current form can't be a confident shot at a price just slightly better than my selection's one.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May ground doesnt inspire too much confidence at the moment but bit of value in this first race ........ 1.35 chester rated this on soft ground jamesie 88 shes a character 85 these two are by far the quickest horses on soft ,jamesies recent run looked poor but it was actually quite good on the clock and he shouldnt be underestimated today generally an 8/1 shot ladbrokes are going 12/1 which is just too big .shes a character has poor draw but undoubtably will act on the surface and the fact that p hanagan has chosen to ride her coupled with her speed rating on the surface suggests to me that they expect a good run as a result .......a slow pace could offset the draw bias as he will have time to use his speed ...11.0 on betfair also looks far too big (tissue 5/1 ) .....plenty of potential dangers but some nice value on offer shes a character 2pts win 11.0 betfair jamesie 2pts win 12/1 ladbrokes

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May PINTURA (13:35) comes into this race off the back of two poor runs in high-class 1m handicaps but is much better than he showed then and has subsequently fallen to a good mark. With conditions and track to suit, alongside the drop back in trip which will bring about improvement and he has every chance at a price that is quite simply far too big. His last victory came off a mark of 80 but he has gone incredibly close on four occasions subsequently and is easily capable of running to ratings close to 100, as shown when putting in a bold effort at York last August, when narrowly run down late over a mile. He’s a tough and consistent type when allowed to sit prominently so I don’t think that prominent tactics used on his three starts in 2012 quite suit. It’s likely that he’ll have been lined up for this sort of handicap given connections and I big run shouldn’t be too far away over these conditions. Soft/heavy ground isn’t a bother on him, his last victory actually coming on ground deemed as ‘heavy’. He enjoys Chester having a course record of 932, the runner-up effort coming in this renewal last year off a 1lb higher mark. It’s definitely not out of the question that Pintura will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the pace from a good draw, especially as there’s very little in the way of front-runners and Jamie Spencer is a dab hand at getting the best from these types. At the prices, Pintura rates as an obvious bet as I’d have him at around the 4/1 mark in these sorts of conditions. He’s nicely handicapped, handles the ground and track and should get the race run to suit. Even if he doesn’t lead, he’s still more than capable of playing a big part and although Kyllachy Star is a big danger in a race that he won 12 months ago but the ground as it is might not suit him ideally and at the price, he’s worth taking on. Dubai Dynamo could also play a part but it isn’t that competitive a contest for a Class 2 event and Pintura is the one to be on. KING ZEAL (20:30) returns to the flat after a decent time of it over hurdles and he’s actually on a fair handicap rating, especially considering he’s 1lb lower than his last flat success. He’s often shown that he can be a notch better than this grade and did seem to be in reasonable form over hurdles before a fall on his last start. With conditions not a problem and the race likely to be run to suit, this looks a fair opportunity. King Zeal has a 2/3 record over this C&D and although they came off much lower ratings, it emphasises the fact that he’s at his best on a left-handed, galloping track (his other two wins on the flat came at the similar course of Haydock). A winner on soft ground on the flat, he’s also placed on heavy going over hurdles so the prevailing conditions at Nottingham today shouldn’t be of any concern. He generally started to struggle when running off handicap ratings in the mid-70’s but his last run over ideal conditions (on an galloping track over 10f) saw him run a respectable race from a mark of 72 and I’ve no doubt that he’s more than capable of capitalising from this rating of 69 now the handicapper has given him a chance, as long as that fall last time out over hurdles hasn’t left its mark. Previous to that he’d looked to be in good form and fitness definitely won’t be an issue. Barry Leavy’s runners over the past two weeks have form figures of 21, so he looks to have his small string going well and King Zeal should definitely have the race run to suit, as there isn’t much in the way of pace and he’s a fairly uncomplicated ride, merely bowl along in front and gallop all the way to the line. The booking of Royston Ffrench fills me with dread as he isn’t the greatest unless riding in the UAE but this horse has so much in its favour that I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt this time. He should be around the 7/1 mark and a double figure price is well worth investing in. The yard also run Mighty Clarets and it will be interesting to see how the market goes but I’m confident that we’re on the right one from this yard and hopefully he’ll run really well with plenty to suit. Bets 13:35 Chester – Pintura; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (bog) 20:30 Nottingham – King Zeal; 2pts @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May bonfire pulled out today .....unsuitable ground?.......... looked like he was best on it to me ?

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 6.15 Cork INVINCIBLE DON 2pts to win @ 8/1 bog (Bet365) Invincible Don came back on flat after a disappointing spell over hurdles and shaped really well last time out here at Cork over 1m1/2f (good) finishing second off today's same mark (57) with the same apprentice jockey on board (D.H. Bergin) who was claiming 7lb that day and will be claiming 10lb today so the horse will actually race off a 3lb lower mark in this race. In that race (7 Apr) Invincible Don was racing on the flat for the first time since last July. His first 2 tries in handicaps in 2011 didn't show anything special but he was then racing off 75 and 70 and on his last start (Wexford, 1m4f, good) in a claimer when rated 65 he finished 4th of 9 showing at least something. He had been contesting a Listed at 2 over 1m1f on soft ground (4th of 5) and also his pedigree suggests he should handle the ground and the main concern is the short distance but from stall nr. 1 he could get a very decent position and prevail in the final furlong when a bit of stamina could be asked especially under these testing conditions. He ran only once over 7f and that was on his 3yo debut (27 May 2011) when he finished 6th of 12 in a little hot maiden at Down Royal a race won by Still Point (rated up 83) with a bunch of decent horses all finishing not far from Invincible Spirit, for example Dodging Bullets (2nd that day and later last year winner of two nice handicaps (his last two starts) on the flat where he is now rated 93 and has taken very well over hurdles being already rated 148 after just 3 starts but all in Group 1-2), Coprah (4th that day and winner of his next/last two starts and now rated 92), Wrekin Rock (5th that day and winner of his last start on the flat 4 days ago and winner also over hurdles this winter) and Leroy Parker (7th and therefore beaten by Invincible Don that day at Down Royal and later able to win a race and getting rated up to 73 on the flat and now a decent hurdler who won a race and is rated 120). So Invincible Don has a decent form (and that was his first race at 3 after a long break) over this distance even if one cannot be carried away with the collateral form of early 3yo races but still he's racing off 57 (actually 47 with the 10lb claimer) and last time out he was an eye-catching finisher from way behind (over 1.5f further) and under a very soft ride (never used the whip). The favourite of this race is Landsdowne who is by far more exposed and is still maiden after 14 races. The Tracey Collins-trained 5yo finished twice second on his last two starts (first two after the winter break) and has been upped only 2lb since his last very close second in a 17-runner field at Naas (1m, good/yielding) 20 days ago. He surely stands a very good chance in this race but you couldn't say he's so well treated as he's had so many chances so far and two seconds and 5 thirds are probably showing that is just not a winner and his handicap marks (58-61) were more or less correct and today's mark of 63 can't be a gift for sure.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May 3.05 chester ballesteros is decent horse on the soft and is short priced today and looks a tough nut to crack .....speed rated 93 he will be difficult to beat but this is a hcap so his 6lb rise in the weights makes him vulnerable at 2/1 ish .the one that might be able to take him on is PALE ORCHID who is a really good a.w horse but also acts on softish turf (very unusual ) ......pale orchid is the definative speedster last 5 runs read 88 94 83 80 90 , the 94 came on good/sft which would give him a chance against ballesteros today and off a mark of 91 he looks well weighted for a big run ......drawn next to ballesteros in the good draws they can take each on for the prize ........ pale orchid 2pts e.w 9/1 will hill

[Edberg]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

bonfire pulled out today .....unsuitable ground?.......... looked like he was best on it to me ?

Won on soft on debut and ran very very well in a top Group 1 on very soft so he does handle the ground. The problem could be connections don't wanna give him a tough preparation race before the Derby. That's debatable of course but it wouldn't be the first time I see something like that with top young horses.

[Haystacks]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

bonfire pulled out today .....unsuitable ground?.......... looked like he was best on it to me ?

No point ruining the horse for the season by racing it on really atrocious ground. It's not just about today - they have bigger targets in mind down the road (and can always go to the Dante next week).

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

bonfire pulled out today .....unsuitable ground?.......... looked like he was best on it to me ?

Both his runs to date were on good to soft ground. Today is heavy ground. Huge difference. Even a horse that goes on soft might not like heavy ground. Probably minding the horse

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

Both his runs to date were on good to soft ground. Today is heavy ground. Huge difference. Even a horse that goes on soft might not like heavy ground. Probably minding the horse

your probably right but 31,000 could have been easy money on paper .......

[Gavlar17]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May Hoping one of you guys can help here.... I backed Astrology last night at 11/4 and now Bonfire is a NR the price has shortened considerably to 6/5. I had something similar a few weeks ago whereby me winnings were penalised as it came under a 'rule 4'. Is this likely to happen again if astrology was to win due to me placing my bet prior to Bonfire becoming a NR?

[anth699]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

Hoping one of you guys can help here.... I backed Astrology last night at 11/4 and now Bonfire is a NR the price has shortened considerably to 6/5. I had something similar a few weeks ago whereby me winnings were penalised as it came under a 'rule 4'. Is this likely to happen again if astrology was to win due to me placing my bet prior to Bonfire becoming a NR?

your bet will be subject to a rule 4 @11/4 @55p in the £1

[Gavlar17]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

your bet will be subject to a rule 4 @11/4 @55p in the £1

Thanks mate. Is it always 10% or does it vary depending on price/runners? Struggling to get my head around it. Cheers.

[Haystacks]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May Rule 4 explained here, Gavlar17: https://williamhill-lang.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/8339/kw/rule%204/session/L3RpbWUvMTMzNjczMzMxOC9zaWQvQU1BeUxRWGs%3D

[Gavlar17]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May Sorry about previous comment, I was posting on my phone and the loading delay caused me to post after u had already explained it was 55p in £1. Thanks for the info. Gav.

[anth699]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

Sorry about previous comment, I was posting on my phone and the loading delay caused me to post after u had already explained it was 55p in £1. Thanks for the info. Gav.

another 5p or 10p deduction,depending on where you placed your bet as another non runner,they can only take a maximum of 75p in the pound,this weather sucks :@ heres a simple explanation,and also som good pointers about bets http://www.bettingmad.com/rule4s.asp

[anth699]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May chester today is probably going to throw up some shocks(prob all favs win now)235 now a 4 horse race,calico cat unraced i know the trainer likes this horse and normally places his horses well,so cant understand why he would run this,unless for 4th place money,but with betfair paying 2 places from 4 a small wager has been bet @95 and 90 for a place,still available around 70,who knows 2 might slip up:lol

[markmywords]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May I think they end up giving you the SP. If the deductions to the pound is more than than if you just took SP.

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

PINTURA (13:35) comes into this race off the back of two poor runs in high-class 1m handicaps but is much better than he showed then and has subsequently fallen to a good mark. With conditions and track to suit, alongside the drop back in trip which will bring about improvement and he has every chance at a price that is quite simply far too big. His last victory came off a mark of 80 but he has gone incredibly close on four occasions subsequently and is easily capable of running to ratings close to 100, as shown when putting in a bold effort at York last August, when narrowly run down late over a mile. He’s a tough and consistent type when allowed to sit prominently so I don’t think that prominent tactics used on his three starts in 2012 quite suit. It’s likely that he’ll have been lined up for this sort of handicap given connections and I big run shouldn’t be too far away over these conditions. Soft/heavy ground isn’t a bother on him, his last victory actually coming on ground deemed as ‘heavy’. He enjoys Chester having a course record of 932, the runner-up effort coming in this renewal last year off a 1lb higher mark. It’s definitely not out of the question that Pintura will be able to get an easy lead and dictate the pace from a good draw, especially as there’s very little in the way of front-runners and Jamie Spencer is a dab hand at getting the best from these types. At the prices, Pintura rates as an obvious bet as I’d have him at around the 4/1 mark in these sorts of conditions. He’s nicely handicapped, handles the ground and track and should get the race run to suit. Even if he doesn’t lead, he’s still more than capable of playing a big part and although Kyllachy Star is a big danger in a race that he won 12 months ago but the ground as it is might not suit him ideally and at the price, he’s worth taking on. Dubai Dynamo could also play a part but it isn’t that competitive a contest for a Class 2 event and Pintura is the one to be on. Bets 13:35 Chester – Pintura; 2pts @ 6/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (bog)

Perhaps a bit of home-team stewards bias in favour of Marwan Koukash but, a badly needed winner at this end.

[anth699]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

chester today is probably going to throw up some shocks(prob all favs win now)235 now a 4 horse race' date='calico cat unraced i know the trainer likes this horse and normally places his horses well,so cant understand why he would run this,unless for 4th place money,but with betfair paying 2 places from 4 a small wager has been bet @95 and 90 for a place,still available around 70,who knows 2 might slip up:lol[/quote']on @90 95 100,out @ 2 easy money,nearly got 2nd,nearly jackpot!

[anth699]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

I think they end up giving you the SP. If the deductions to the pound is more than than if you just took SP.

only if you back bog and the sp is bigger than the price you took.

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May TIGHT LIPPED 6.35 Ascot. 1 point win. Showed a bit better last time and can find a little more this evening. The trip and ground's fine and the handicapper drops him 2 pound to a mark of 72, so every chance of a win. Hughes booked which should be fine. 10/1 Boylesports BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

Lord Of The Shadows 7.10 Ascot. 1 point win. Good seasonal opener last time on the all weather, which should see him improve a bit, and has already proven himself on soft ground at Salisbury last season. This trip is fine and a mark of 98 does appear quite fair in context with the race, so every chance of a win. 13/2 Bet365 (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat racing ~ Friday 11th May

Lord Of The Shadows 7.10 Ascot. 1 point win. Good seasonal opener last time on the all weather' date= which should see him improve a bit, and has already proven himself on soft ground at Salisbury last season. This trip is fine and a mark of 98 does appear quite fair in context with the race, so every chance of a win. 13/2 Bet365 (bog)

i really like this lord of the shadows .......i wasnt going to have another bet today but i think he is pretty strong .......comes out top on my speed ratings (87) and looks on a fair mark ......actually recorded a 91 at kemp lto so is definately in good heart ....hopefully can runwell lord of the shadows 2pts e.w 13/2 generally