Flat Racing: Fri 4th May

[RussP]

This weather has caused havoc but hopefully we should be able to get stuck into the flat season properly. Taking one today. 3.30 Musselburgh 1 NR and we're left with 11 for this Class 4, 9f handicap. I did note the market leader, Borug, as running well lto but I just feel it's hold up style ain't ideally suited to this track so 3's looks a bit short to me whilst Muffin McLeay, although clearly in good heart, will have to improve again. Instead, I'm taking: Staff Sergeant (3pts EW @ 15/2 William Hill BOG) - Only won once in 13 starts but there's enough to suggest that will change soon. Firstly, this race likes to race up with the pace and I can only see one other prominent type in the race which could well mean our horse can dictate proceedings and have the race run to suit. A good low draw in 3 will help that. Next is a return to softer ground and the longer trip, as well as the ease in grade. All these things are definite ticks in the box. If we class Southwell as a 'soft ground' track (yes, I know it's fibresand but you get my drift!), its record on this type of going reads 1-2-6-2-5-2. Has shown in the last 2 years it's ability to go well fresh, winning 2 years ago at Southwell and finishing a head 2nd on its reappearance 12 months ago. That would indicate no issues with the 216 day absence. Races off 77 today and has some good form every time it has raced off a mark in the 70's. 7 tries off a 70-something mark; head 2nd at 7/1 over 10f, 7th of 17 where Class 3 / good ground didn't help, 4th of 16 where again good ground was evident, 2nd of 11 over 8f on soft, 5th of 13 on good to soft; this is a race it's performance can be marked up as it was involved in a 4 way battle for the lead and the 4 in front at the finish all came from off the pace, 2nd of 12 over an inadquate 7f on soft (that was Class 3 too) and a promising 5th of 16 on unsuitable ground in a higher grade. Whilst its win record ain't that promising, I can find enough in there to suggest that, with optimum conditions, this one could be tough to beat. I think that may be today and I'm happy to get involved at a nice EW price.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 4th May 3.40 wolv tough little race this with plenty of talent .....hoyadoingnotsobad looks a decent type and comes out top on ratings at (87) which is pretty good but have a feeling he is better on sharper /faster track than wolverhampton and weight rise /course change makes his 4/1 quote a little cramped .crew cut looks a big danger .....likes the track and looks nicely weighted for a big run around 6/1 mark but i think theres slightly better value in the 7/1 about MAWJOODAH ......on both his last 2 runs has shown plenty of speed at wolv recording a 84 over 6f then a 79 over 7f where he was leading at the 6 pole ......returns to 6f which is obviously his best trip and keiron fallon takes the ride today so looks like big run expected ......course form a big plus here at wolv so an 84 today would put him right in the mix so 7/1 quote just too big but the 11/2 with bet365 covered to 3places is even better . mawjoodah 2pts win 11/2 covered to 3places bet365