anaconda69 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I like the other 1-1 thread so starting my own. Starting with £12.00 bank, bets with betfair. Staking is 50p to start with, then balance allowed stake if 50p one loses until money recovered hopefully. Odds for laying 1-1 up to 9-1 but hopefully average between 6 and 7-1, so need at least 8 from 9 right in circumstances to break even after commission Think Barcelona will thrash Chelsea 2 or 3-0 or -1 so here is first bet: lay chelsea 1+1 barcelona 9.0 50p unmatched I'm using stats for lesser occurance leagues or cup games in general, and looking at past head to head, recent home and away goals and last 6 games (all available on betfair and soccerstats.com) Stats on laying draw only on level stakes so far: 14-3 so 14 points minus loss of 8.4 points would equal 5.6 points profit FT 1-1 stats English Premier League are 12.14% occurance rate. France - stay away from 16.67% occurance rate. Germany - 12.5% Holland 9%, but odds usually rubbish to lay Italy - although many 1-1s the other night (I missed them all thankfully) only 9.71%, making this the best to lay. Spain - 11.18%, again, a good one to go by. Then all league cup games etc that require an outcome that is not a draw are good to go for in my opinion Worked out that at a level that will allow me to increase first stake and recovery stake. This will be continued in 10p increments until I reach £100.00 bank if it happens, which then the stake will revert back to £0.50. Here is a table and the points of increase if I have got my excel calculations right (see just additions of cover 1 and 2 until cover 3 is reached): [TABLE=class: cms_table] [TR] [TD=bgcolor: #CCFFCC]Stake[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CCFFCC]Cover 1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CCFFCC]Cover 2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CCFFCC]Cover 3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #CCFFCC]Total needed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [TD]£4.00 [/TD] [TD]£16.00 [/TD] [TD]£80.00 [/TD] [TD]£100.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]£0.60 [/TD] [TD]£4.80 [/TD] [TD]£19.20 [/TD] [TD]£96.00 [/TD] [TD]£120.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]£0.70 [/TD] [TD]£5.60 [/TD] [TD]£22.40 [/TD] [TD]£112.00 [/TD] [TD]£140.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]£0.80 [/TD] [TD]£6.40 [/TD] [TD]£25.60 [/TD] [TD]£128.00 [/TD] [TD]£160.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]£0.90 [/TD] [TD]£7.20 [/TD] [TD]£28.80 [/TD] [TD]£144.00 [/TD] [TD]£180.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]£1.00 [/TD] [TD]£8.00 [/TD] [TD]£32.00 [/TD] [TD]£160.00 [/TD] [TD]£200.00 [/TD] [/TR] £0.50[/TABLE] N.B. All cover is from average 8-1 odds, I usually take less anyway. Critical staking points - Bet 27: £0.60 Bet 33: £0.70, Bet 39: £0.80 Bet 45: £0.90 Bet 49: £1.00 As we have just reached bet 27, stakes increased to £0.60. The further it gets, the quicker it will be to increase stakes. This should mean the system will reach £100 a lot quicker and possibly by bet 80 or less (lets average this out if I get a few losers inbetween) if all goes to plan and 1-1 isn't seen within 3 games. IF £100 is reached, then I will decide whether to bank some and continue with increased stake or to do the 3 tier system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Now matched :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw looking bad already odds now fav for 1-1 = 4.2:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw bet won 1-0 ft bank £20.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Next bet if it is matched (liquidity rubbish on wbx and bets, but want to keep account away from betfair as like doing mixture or might do horse racing doubles on there) Atletico Madrid 1-1 Valencia 0.50 at 7.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw SAdly not matched think may have to go with betfair joke the liquidity on wbx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Okay back using betfair now as wbx was too poor for odds and liquidity: [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR=class: BMLayBetBackground, bgcolor: #EAD1E3] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: left]Fixtures 22 April / All Boys v Union Santa Fe / Correct Score[/TD] [TD=align: left]1 - 1[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]22-Apr-12 18:32[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.50 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR=class: BMLayBetBackground, bgcolor: #EAD1E3] [TD=align: left]Fixtures 22 April / Nacional v Sp Lisbon / Correct Score[/TD] [TD=align: left]1 - 1[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]22-Apr-12 18:36[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw all boys2-1 already so won [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR=class: BMLayBetBackground, bgcolor: #EAD1E3] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: left][TABLE] [TR] [TD]Fixtures 22 April / Genk v Standard / Correct Score[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD=align: left]1 - 1[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]22-Apr-12 19:37[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 0-1 inplay 3 mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw sporting lisbon 2-1 early too so won! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Genk 0-2 standard so winner there too, so 4 bets won (1 unmatched but would have won) so far, long way to go yet. Idea is to continue with 50p stakes until a loser, then up it to £1 to recoup loss (and back to 50p again thereafter) then if I have enough (£16 in winnings by then) I will increase stakes to £2 on a loser of £1 stake until recouping again :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Only decent looking one tonight: Gateshead V Luton lay 1-1 at 8.4 50p stake:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw 0-0 ft won. Bank Start £12.00 Bank now: £14.35 5-0 picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Novara V Lazio lay 8.4 1-1 £0.50 stake Roma V Florentina lay draw 4 £1.00 stake :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Novara v lazio 2-1 ft wonHoping for Roma win now later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Nice call on Nova-Laz & Roma game. Like to make a suggestion here. I suggest to lay draw instead of 1-1. Because 1-1 is the most popular draw score. You won't have many 0-0s and 2-2s. So you can reduce your liability by laying draw. When you're laying 1-1, liability is too high. GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Real-Bayern game looks good for draw lay by the way :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Roma 1-2 Florentina ft wonBank now £15.77 7-0 Thanks stablemaster, i think id have more draws longterm is only problem i had 0-0 on gatehead game so one losing at 3.5 average would mean i need 3 winning games on level stakes from 4. I would need 2 games on double stakes not to draw to recover so harder to regain ground. I will get old results to confirm if anything else was a draw fulltime and put it on level stakes for laying draw at average 3.8 (by looks of it, it is that odds for draw for laying a 7/1 shot 1-1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Oh i can't do real game as stupid phone doesn't let me do lower stakes via usual method and at girlfriends so can't do it atm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Higher end at 9.8 but bilbao can't draw and I can see it being their game anyway. lay 9.8 1-1 athletico bilbao v sporting lisbon Stake £0.50 Liability £4.40:p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Valencia V Athletico Madrid Can't see it being a draw game, Valencia are on form and should take this one again 2-1 or 3-1 i think. Lay draw 3.9 Stake £1.00 Liability £2.90:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Obviously, the games quoted 1-1 are going to be higher liability, but I don't know how many from the 6-1s and 7-1s that actually end 1-1, I don't know if anyone can find odds of the past and backtest that for me or tell me how to do it?:p Nice call on Nova-Laz & Roma game. Like to make a suggestion here. I suggest to lay draw instead of 1-1. Because 1-1 is the most popular draw score. You won't have many 0-0s and 2-2s. So you can reduce your liability by laying draw. When you're laying 1-1, liability is too high. GL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Higher end at 9.8 but bilbao can't draw and I can see it being their game anyway. lay 9.8 1-1 athletico bilbao v sporting lisbon Stake £0.50 Liability £4.40 won 2-1ht:D just need valencia to pick up their game:spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Valencia V Athletico Madrid Can't see it being a draw game, Valencia are on form and should take this one again 2-1 or 3-1 i think. Lay draw 3.9 Stake £1.00 Liability £2.90 won Valencia 0-1 Athletico Madrid:D Bank Start: £12.00 Bank Now: £17.22 9-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Close one that, I was on the 1-1 lay side so was stressing for the last 10 mins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner, align: left]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 5, align: left]Genk v Anderlecht[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner, align: left]1 - 1Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center]7.8[/TD] [TD=class: stake, align: center]£0.50[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£3.40[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Not yet matched, awaiting inplay otherwise:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 26, 2012 Author Share Posted April 26, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw Close one that' date=' I was on the 1-1 lay side so was stressing for the last 10 mins.[/quote'] yeah, kick from certain goal by defender was a must, but a wins a win, just testing this at the moment with lower stakes, before I splash more money on it maybe next sporting year. Think long term, I'm only going to gain profit £5.00 a week doing 2-3 games a day, including recovery stakes, so if goes well, will increase if gain £16.00 for cover of £1.00 stakes at £2.00 stakes, plus would need further £28.00 of cover to double initial stake to £1.00, so going to be hard and require luck to not hit three 1-1s within 11 games (1-1 at £0.50 costs £3.50 at 7/1 average, takes 4 £1.00 stakes to recover, that loses, £10.50 lost so have to win 6 games at £2.00 stake):p Thinking need to increase recovery stake to £3.00 on stage 3 then as would need just four again for recovery of both amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner, align: left]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4, align: left]Genk v Anderlecht[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner, align: left]1 - 1Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center]7.8[/TD] [TD=class: stake, align: center]£0.50[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£3.40[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Now matched ;) [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner, align: left]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4, align: left]Wigan v Newcastle[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner, align: left]1 - 1Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center]8[/TD] [TD=class: stake, align: center]£0.50[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£3.50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw [TABLE=class: cms_table_lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: cms_table_runner, align: center]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: cms_table_odds, align: center]Backer'sodds[/TH] [TH=class: cms_table_stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: cms_table_profit, align: center]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: cms_table_event-name] [TH=colspan: 4, align: center]Genk v Anderlecht[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: cms_table_bet, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: cms_table_runner, align: center]1 - 1Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: cms_table_odds, align: center]7.8[/TD] [TD=class: cms_table_stake, align: center]£0.50[/TD] [TD=class: cms_table_profit, align: right]£3.40 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Won 0-3, another non draw by looks of it, still inplay 10-0 Bank: £17.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner, align: left]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4, align: left]Roma v Napoli[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner, align: left]1 - 1Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center]7.6[/TD] [TD=class: stake, align: center]£0.50[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£3.30[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted April 28, 2012 Author Share Posted April 28, 2012 Re: Laying 1-1 or draw BOTH WON wigan4-0 newcastle Roma 1-2 napoli so both not drawing again too 12-0 Bank £18.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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