QPR v Swansea April 11th

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City (20:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.83 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[ThusPrider]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th QPR vs Swansea The relegation threatened teams are a funny old lot. They seem to win their games together and lose them together also. Though you can easily argue that luck plays a large part, such as Derry's red card and Chelsea's two offside goals, after a couple of weeks ago where "the relegation battle has been stepped up", every one of them has lost. Starting with Blackburn losing to Manchester Utd, Bolton 0 - 3 Fulham after Bolton won 3 on the bounce, Chelsea 2 - 1 Wigan, West Brom 3 - 0 Blackburn,. Stoke 2 - 1 Wolves, Man Utd 2 - 0 QPR... Newcastle 2 - 0 Bolton and now Blackburn 2 - 0 Liverpool. This is hardly a valid conclusion to say that QPR are going to lose to Swansea to follow the trend, but nevertheless it is very interesting that the team's mentality must play a part in this. The last fixture between these two was last season, when QPR smacked 4 - 0 past the swans to gain promotion. Who would have thought that it is Swansea who are higher in the table and QPR fighting for survival this season. Swansea seemed to have hit a rough patch of results now they are safe from relegation. 3 losses on the bounce and surely it is the effects of Rodgers being linked to bigger jobs? After he soaked up a lot of praise from his players and pundits, similarly to Redknapp and the England job, results have dropped. Now might be a relevant time to mention this, but at the early stages of the season, I backed Swansea to get a draw out of the Etihad in their first game. It was 0 - 0 at HT but Aguero went on for his debut and smashed in some beautiful goals in a match that ended 4 - 0. (I remember that game well as I was cursing my luck I didn't put him into my fantasy football team, having watched him at Atletico Madrid, that few extra points could do nicely in my current status... but anyways...) Making notes after every game, I quickly brandished notes of "junior FCB," "hollow performance" "passing fiasco" etc. They didn't start the season well and I remember it was an age before they managed to even score their first goal of the season. However, they proved people wrong with deserved points throughout the season. After the Newcastle loss, I really didn't know what I should have put in my notes. They had perhaps more than twice the overall possession and created some chances, though I'd describe them as "hollow chances" (chances that they were never scoring from and just to get the ignorant crowd going a little bit), I was usually biased in saying this. Though they had alot of the ball, they never really looked like troubling the Newcastle defense. Sigurdsson had a good bouncing effort trying his luck from 25 yards out again, but you're not going to pop them in every time you try, and Krul made the save. I don't wan't to sound silly, but it seems that Swansea's passing football works best against hoofball sides. Similarly I'd brandish the same note for Wigan. However, QPR are very direct in their attacks and Swansea have been making mistakes recently that have cost them goals. Zamora is back for QPR, whilst donkey Cisse is still suspended, Derry begins his one match ban from that harsh red card. After putting everything into prespective, 49/29/22 was scribbled down in the end. 51/49 = 2.04 (1.04)+ odds required equaling value on QPR. QPR Coral/Paddypower 6/5 10/10 I suggest Coral > Paddy power. A stoppage time goal from Swansea to turn your bet into a loser will give your bet back being a televised game. Whilst Paddy Power does not have specials on 1x2 markets. More on this in "Tips and Tricks" section of my blog.

[Kiddo112]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th Will get involved in a market I don't normally tonight - bookings. Swansea like to play possession football, and as a result make fewer tackles and have actually given up 44 fewer fouls (262 total) in the league this year than any other team in the top 5 European leagues. QPR are fighting for their PL lives, and play an aggressive style anyway. The ref is Lee Probert, which is a concern as he does like to keep his cards in his pocket - 100 y & 8 red in 32 games this season. The best price on QPR in the bookings points match bet is 2.25. However Bwin are offering 2.7 on QPR to get most yellow cards. I would have this much closer to 50:50, but because of the risk of a low card count, I will cover the tie which is offered at 4.0. This offers 2.025 on QPR most yellows, with a push on a tie. Decent bet as I think this is very good value. 5pts QPR Most Yellow Cards @2.025* - Bwin 1/4 stake on Tie @4.0 3/4 stake on QPR @2.7 :hope

[blackcrow]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th Swansea @ 3.78 pinnacle QPR have conceded in each of their last 23 EPL games, which should give Swansea some confidence that they will score here, and have allowed at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Swansea have lost their last 3 games, and allowed at least two goals in each of them, but they have won 3 of their last 5 away games in the EPL, and have shown that defensively, they are the better of the two sides. Like their defence to be solid here, and negate the likes of Cisse and Zamora, while their own attack should be able to score at least once here Season record: 139-198 (-12.21)

[pg_yid]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th Swansea are a better side than QPR, so I was initially thinking true odds for QPR should be around 2.4. However, you have to take into account Swansea's poor away form (which is actually quite good short term, 4 wins out of the last 7 away games in the league I believe), the fact that it is a small pitch and therefore bad for their passing game and QPR's good recent form. Too many factors which are difficult for me to account for in terms of how they affect the percentage chance of QPR winning. To put it another way, I trust the bookies better than I trust myself to accurately turn the factors surrounding this match into a percentage chance of either side winning, so no bet for me. However, if I had to bet I would bet Swansea +0.5 (AH) @ 1.88.

[ThusPrider]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th

QPR vs Swansea The relegation threatened teams are a funny old lot. They seem to win their games together and lose them together also. Though you can easily argue that luck plays a large part, such as Derry's red card and Chelsea's two offside goals, after a couple of weeks ago where "the relegation battle has been stepped up", every one of them has lost. Starting with Blackburn losing to Manchester Utd, Bolton 0 - 3 Fulham after Bolton won 3 on the bounce, Chelsea 2 - 1 Wigan, West Brom 3 - 0 Blackburn,. Stoke 2 - 1 Wolves, Man Utd 2 - 0 QPR... Newcastle 2 - 0 Bolton and now Blackburn 2 - 0 Liverpool. This is hardly a valid conclusion to say that QPR are going to lose to Swansea to follow the trend, but nevertheless it is very interesting that the team's mentality must play a part in this. The last fixture between these two was last season, when QPR smacked 4 - 0 past the swans to gain promotion. Who would have thought that it is Swansea who are higher in the table and QPR fighting for survival this season. Swansea seemed to have hit a rough patch of results now they are safe from relegation. 3 losses on the bounce and surely it is the effects of Rodgers being linked to bigger jobs? After he soaked up a lot of praise from his players and pundits, similarly to Redknapp and the England job, results have dropped. Now might be a relevant time to mention this, but at the early stages of the season, I backed Swansea to get a draw out of the Etihad in their first game. It was 0 - 0 at HT but Aguero went on for his debut and smashed in some beautiful goals in a match that ended 4 - 0. (I remember that game well as I was cursing my luck I didn't put him into my fantasy football team, having watched him at Atletico Madrid, that few extra points could do nicely in my current status... but anyways...) Making notes after every game, I quickly brandished notes of "junior FCB," "hollow performance" "passing fiasco" etc. They didn't start the season well and I remember it was an age before they managed to even score their first goal of the season. However, they proved people wrong with deserved points throughout the season. After the Newcastle loss, I really didn't know what I should have put in my notes. They had perhaps more than twice the overall possession and created some chances, though I'd describe them as "hollow chances" (chances that they were never scoring from and just to get the ignorant crowd going a little bit), I was usually biased in saying this. Though they had alot of the ball, they never really looked like troubling the Newcastle defense. Sigurdsson had a good bouncing effort trying his luck from 25 yards out again, but you're not going to pop them in every time you try, and Krul made the save. I don't wan't to sound silly, but it seems that Swansea's passing football works best against hoofball sides. Similarly I'd brandish the same note for Wigan. However, QPR are very direct in their attacks and Swansea have been making mistakes recently that have cost them goals. Zamora is back for QPR, whilst donkey Cisse is still suspended, Derry begins his one match ban from that harsh red card. After putting everything into prespective, 49/29/22 was scribbled down in the end. 51/49 = 2.04 (1.04)+ odds required equaling value on QPR. QPR Coral/Paddypower 6/5 10/10 I suggest Coral > Paddy power. A stoppage time goal from Swansea to turn your bet into a loser will give your bet back being a televised game. Whilst Paddy Power does not have specials on 1x2 markets. More on this in "Tips and Tricks" section of my blog.

Swansea dominated in possession you might expect, and the scoreline in the end was an emphatic one. Overall on the balance, though QPR won by a neat margin, It was a deserved victory. +12 units

[blackcrow]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th

Swansea @ 3.78 :(

QPR with a clean sheet??????? Season record: 141-200 (-11.56)

[Kiddo112]

Re: QPR v Swansea April 11th

Will get involved in a market I don't normally tonight - bookings. Swansea like to play possession football, and as a result make fewer tackles and have actually given up 44 fewer fouls (262 total) in the league this year than any other team in the top 5 European leagues. QPR are fighting for their PL lives, and play an aggressive style anyway. The ref is Lee Probert, which is a concern as he does like to keep his cards in his pocket - 100 y & 8 red in 32 games this season. The best price on QPR in the bookings points match bet is 2.25. However Bwin are offering 2.7 on QPR to get most yellow cards. I would have this much closer to 50:50, but because of the risk of a low card count, I will cover the tie which is offered at 4.0. This offers 2.025 on QPR most yellows, with a push on a tie. Decent bet as I think this is very good value. 5pts QPR Most Yellow Cards @2.025* - Bwin 1/4 stake on Tie @4.0 3/4 stake on QPR @2.7 :hope

FT 2 bookings to nil - Bet Won :cigar +5.125 pts Hmmm, not very enjoyable watching for me, especially the first 72 mins (until the first booking), but got there in the end. I did some analysis for this, didn;t have time to post it earlier but will share it now as it may be of use for the remainder of the season. On the bookings points, Swansea average 12.27pts per game, 1.15 yellow cards & 0.03 red cards. Their season record (win being most booking points) is P33 W4 D10 L19. They have had zero cards in 12 of their 33 games, and now in 8 of their last 13. Very much doubt I will be getting involved so heavily again, but definitely think the 2.7 was a wrong price, and may be worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.