Jumps - Sunday 8th April

[Blazing Bailey]

Plumpton 405 – Colins Desire 10/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Carriglea Wood 4/1 1pt Win Bet365 There are two shortish price favourites and while they look to have a decent chance, the 5/2 currently on offer for Ballyoneen and 2/1 for Sieglande don’t represent any value whatsoever in my eyes especially when the former isn’t the greatest of jumpers & the latter has been off the track for a bit. Of my two selections, Colins Desire looks to have a workable mark with the proposition of more to come. The ground & distance will suit and this slight drop in class will help. 10/1 looks too big for me to leave alone. Carriglea Wood is an interesting one as the form of his Leicester 5^th looks very strong those finishing ahead all going on to win again since, suggesting he might have more to offer. He looks very much a stayer so the increased trip will help, but he may want longer or just simply not have enough speed to win many races. Time will tell and while 4/1 looks about right with these conditions to suit. Plumpton 435 – James Pollard 12/1 1pt Win Ladbrokes & Double Handful 7/2 1pt Win Ladbrokes Again this is a race with a short price favourite that I am looking to take on. Ladbrokes have Ugo at 5/4 with the rest of the firms a bit longer and the James Pollard is half the price with the other main firms which suggest those at Ladbrokes have either priced it up wrong or know something we don’t! Ugo won really well LTO and it is no surprise to see him as the favourite but like the others he has question marks to answer. Firstly he seems to need genuinely quick ground and with potential showers forecast for tomorrow he might not get that here. Secondly looking through the form of his previous win in novice company, the 2^nd place was OR 121 however by my reckoning that looks very harsh on what he has achieved and a mark of around the 100 mark and similarly the 3^rd place in that race doesn’t look worthy of their rating which raises questions about what he really beat. Off 107 himself today, judging on my comment above, it still wouldn’t have him weighted out of it, but with the combination of the potential ground & it only being 4 days since that run makes me think he is vulnerable. So that leaves the question of who I should back. James Pollard’s form from LTO looks very strong with the 1^st, 2^nd & 4^th all winning NTO! That should leave him with some room for manoeuvre and with him already having C&D form as well as proven on both good and good to soft ground I think he is a massive price. Of the others, Double Handful also looks to possibly have a little in hand. Judging purely on his last run where he was 5L behind a 130+ winner (NTO) he could do well off of his current mark of 120. My worry with him is that the form before that amounts to very little and the 3^rd place of his previous race doesn’t help his case either. I probably should leave this one alone but with conditions to suit again, I am willing to gamble that there he does have more to offer, albeit at small stakes. Rajamead is another who could turn up with a shout tomorrow. He needs softer ground which he may or may not get, but I get the feeling he may be weighted up to his best for the time being so I will pass. Oasis Knight has been off the track for a while and also races with out his normal headgear so I will pass & Silver Lily has also been off but does look like a market mover.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jumps - Sunday 8th April Towcester 240 – Thorseby 8/1 1pt Win Bet365 & Cecily Parsely This race looks set to be dominated by the two favourites of which I think Cecily Parsley looks the best treated and is the one I think will win although given the price of 6/4 at the moment I will look elsewhere. The other favourite Rivermouth doesn’t look one to trust IMO and even though the 2^nd of his previous race has won NTO, off such a lowly mark it should have been expected somewhat. Of the others Thorseby catches my eye the most. His previous 3^rd came in similar conditions to today and the form looks solid. With the stiffer track & extra distance looking as if they will suit, there might just be more to come. Witchs Hat ran well LTo but given his overall profile Im not sure he will back that up while Midnight Charmer could potentially run a big race as the form of his 2^nd on soft at Fontwell looks good with the 3^rd & 4^th winning next time. However, I have come to distrust all form on softer ground at Fontwell as form seems to go out of the window in those conditions so I will pass on this occasion. Towcester 340 – Ruby Crown 1pt Win 9/2 BetVictor & King Ozzy 10/1 1pt WinBet365 This looks quite a competitive race and cases can be made for a few of these. Giant of Murchu looks to have solid form claims although might be too high in the weights now, Swiss Guard is interesting on good ground but looks as if further will suit and Midnight Spirit might run well despite the trainer claiming he want it softer after pulling up on his previous run (considering he has won in the past on GF!?) Of my selections Ruby Crown looks to have the best chance and heads the market. He has C&D form off 2lb lower and his profile suggest he has more to offer in my eyes. King Ozzy could be interesting have been refreshed by a break, considering he won a class 3 handicap on his return last spring. He possibly looks as though he wants a stiff 2miles which he will get here. His runs since his last win have mainly been in conditions that haven’t fully suited and whilst I would have expected him to perform better on a couple of them occasions I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back here. Another one I almost forgot is Samizdat who's previous run suggests he may be returning to form. Currently around 14/1 I may look to have a small EW bet if the price drifts a little.