Blazing Bailey Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Stratford 355 – Knight In Purple 15/2 Bet365 2pt win In a race where I think a lot of the runners are overrated, I believe my selection has the best chance of running somewhere near to his mark. He is proven over the trip, on the ground and in this class and has the potential to run a big race. Spotlight have him as their NAP of the meeting and while I wouldn’t be that confident I would be very disappointed if he wasn’t right up there. 425 – Goldmeister 5/1 BetVictor 1pt Win The form of this horse’s previous race is standing up pretty well with the 3rd winning off 113 & the 4th placing off 116 with the selection 5 ½ lengths back in 6th. Therefore, I think his rating of 93 could be very generous and while I am cautious of the form that came before it, if he can repeat his previous run he must be bang there, not to mention with the extra distance playing to his strengths. The favourite Beattie Green also looks like an improver but he hasn’t shown the same level of form and Goldmeister is the better value even if I do think the price is a little on the low side. Uttoxeter 410 – Fentara 9/2 Bet365 3pt win This is my bet of the day as I believe his previous form shows him to have roughly 10lbs in hand of his current mark. I have slight concerns about the ground, having previously shown more of a liking to softer but I am willing to take that chance. There are a couple of other decent runners but IMO they need to show a lot more to beat my selection, although they may well be capable of such improvement. 445 – Henok 9/2 BetVictor 1pt Win The reason for choosing this horse is the same as Goldmeister’s above as Henok was the 5th placed horse in that race. He is now rated 102 which means he potentially has less in hand, but like the above horse, Henok should also improve for the step up in trip. I have a little bit of caution about the ground but hopefully that will prove unfounded. 545 – Ive Been Framed 8/1 BetVictor 1pt Win or 1pt EW This is a competitive race in my books with a couple having the potential to go close. The top weight Its Like That should go very close if its last run is anything to go by with the horse beating him going well NTO but seeing as he is 12 I cant see him mirroring that progression. The favourite North Stack is another that I fancy and I do have him ahead of his mark but I don’t like the price at the moment and will wait and see what its like tomorrow. Musical Wedge also looks on a decent mark but I think softer ground would suit this one and Thoresby is another that could threaten, although I think he could do with a couple more pounds dropping. That leaves me with my selection who I believe to have a few pounds in hand if reproducing his most recent run. He has won over hurdles off higher marks in the past (albeit on softer ground) and I think he has a chance but I will wait for the price in the morning as I believe it will probably drift a little. Also in this race Pistol Basc could be a threat but I am having trouble in working out the value of the form. I would also be tempted to put the first 4 in an EW lucky 15 for a small stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Not so good so far. Knight In Purple ran well and finished a half length 2nd which is a shame because I thought he had it in the bag and was probably travelling the best all the way round. Fentara hit every hurdle and despite being right in it with a couple of flights to go, was pulled up so something obviously wasnt right. Dont know if she would have beaten the winner but would have had a real good go. Could do with a couple of the other to come in now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Goldmeister backed but certainly didnt run like a horse that had a few lbs in hand. Doesnt bode well for my Henok bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March Unsurprisingly Henok was disappointing as well. Certainly wasnt form to trust! Need the winner in the lucky last! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 31st March 545 – Ive Been Framed 8/1 BetVictor 1pt Win or 1pt EW This is a competitive race in my books with a couple having the potential to go close. The top weight Its Like That should go very close if its last run is anything to go by with the horse beating him going well NTO but seeing as he is 12 I cant see him mirroring that progression. The favourite North Stack is another that I fancy and I do have him ahead of his mark but I don’t like the price at the moment and will wait and see what its like tomorrow. Musical Wedge also looks on a decent mark but I think softer ground would suit this one and Thoresby is another that could threaten, although I think he could do with a couple more pounds dropping. That leaves me with my selection who I believe to have a few pounds in hand if reproducing his most recent run. He has won over hurdles off higher marks in the past (albeit on softer ground) and I think he has a chance but I will wait for the price in the morning as I believe it will probably drift a little. Also in this race Pistol Basc could be a threat but I am having trouble in working out the value of the form. Finally! Get in! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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