Flat Racing; Monday 19th March

[Lars]

DALHAAN has now dropped to his last winning mark of 67 and for a horse that shapes as if he’s in very decent form currently and he could make the switch back to the Flat a winning one, especially with Ian Mongan booked again and running over ideal conditions. His last win came off this rating in December 2010 over this C&D, in a race which turned into a sprint. He won by 4.5 lengths and that proved he could operate a little bit higher level than this one, even though the form of that race could hardly taken as gospel seen as the pace of the race was quite unusual. He hasn’t really shown the same form since, but shown signs of life recently when running over hurdles. He didn’t make much of an impact in Novice events, but shaped with promise in a competitive Jumpers Bumper here at Kempton before backing that up with a solid 2^nd to a well-handicapped animal on his first try in Handicap Hurdle company 19 days ago. That proved he’s in good form now and he could well capitalise on the handicapper giving his flat rating a chance on the basis of a poor run over 1m2f here in August. That trip is on the sharp side of him and he didn’t stand a prayer really . Back to two miles, back to Kempton and with a positive jockey booking in Ian Mongan (4/21 for yard), he looks pretty decent value at this 14/1 price. There isn’t really much confirmed pace in this race but that shouldn’t inconvenience him too much, having won off sedate gallops before and I just hope that Ian Mongan positions him closer to the pace. If he does, then he has an excellent chance here off top-weight (which he has no issues in carrying) and I still think a rating of 75 is certainly extremely achievable, so he looks quite well-in off this mark of 67 and I think he’s worth a fair bet, especially in quite a poor race. The Absent Mare is probably the biggest danger if coming on for her latest start off a break, but she’s little in the way of value and I just feel that Dalhaan should be closer to 7/1, so the double the price available currently is well worth taking. Bets 17:20 Kempton – Dalhaan; 3pts @ 14/1 BetVictor (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 19th March 2.50 kemp : black cadillac 90 chjimes 86 black baccara 86 rambos will 85 sherjawy 82+ i wasnt going to touch this race with a bargepole as its so close and competitive its untrue ,but looking at the form more closer ...chjimes hasnt won away from lingfield so could put a line through him (especially off 5lb higher mark ) black cadillac looks dangerous and could run well but a fast run after a layoff ,wide draw and ran few days ago all negative for me so 3/1 is crap .rambos will looks a tad high in the weights at present but e.w possibiltys .....the 2 to focus on for me are sherjawy ....who gets a light racing weight today and i think that will help a lot and black baccara who ran really well lto and his clock rating puts him bang in the mix today . sherjawy is popular and i can see why as he won here 12 monthes ago and looks to be back into some kind of form so an e.w bet around 11/2 looks good but there is 12/1 available with boylesports about black baccara which is twice the others prices and he has a nice draw in stall 2 which if getting a good start he might be very difficult to come back at ....black caddilac and chjimes potential big dangers .....but value has to be black baccara and at 12/1 boyles ...looks worth a play to me 2pts e.w black baccara 12/1