Bundesliga II - 14 March

[Benny1887]

14.03.2012 - Erzgebirge Aue vs. TSV 1860 Munchen http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/aue-munich-1860-806377/#ah;2 TSV 1860 Munchen (+0) Odds: 1.92 (PinnacleSports) Stake: 6/10 Pretty obvious value on 1860. I have no idea for which reason odds are so balanced here, considering that the poorest team of the league plays at home against a team with really high potential. Aue have lately shown a slightly positive tendency since manager Baumann replaced former manager Schmitt. All in all, their whole playing style became more offensive-minded and they play in a more risky way. Nevertheless this could be really dangerous against 1860, a team with a superb counter ability. Last home game, Aue got their first home victory since September 2011 when beating FSV Frankfurt by 4:3 in a crazy match. Howsoever, these 4 goals rather were the result of unbelievable defense errors from Frankfurt. It was not a game where Aue showed a superb technical ability and where they created goalscoring opportunities at minute intervals. Hence this result might be a bit misleading but the defense problems of Aue recently became even worse. Today they also have to replace right back Pierre Le Beau which means that their back four has to change once more. Against Frankfurt, they were extremely prone to counter attacks through the wings. When Frankfurt attacked fast through the wings, Aue's defense was a big mess and they allowed some easy goals for Frankfurt. Bad for Aue that fast attacks through the wings are the biggest strength of 1860 although vital winger Stefan Aigner will miss this game with a flu. But in fact, Aue are a team which is extremely prone against fast attacks and fast strikers in general and especially this is 1860 biggest strength who have the fastest strikers of the league with Benny Lauth and Kevin Volland. No idea how Aue's slow central defense, consisting of Rene Klingbeil (or Adli Lachheb) and Thomas Paulus should stop them. Next point is that Aue are a team which mostly use long and high balls as well as crosses. This is because they know that their technical ability is a shame and because they know that the best player of their team, Ronny König, is a tall penalty box player who is brilliant in the air. This means that their style of playing bases on several high balls to König. But especially this is the wrong way if you want to make trouble for 1860's defense. For example, 1860 conceded 3 goals on Saturday when playing away against FSV Frankfurt. FSV Frankfurt is the exact opposite of Aue. They only use flat passes, never make high balls and their technical ability is more than fine. Hence they created several good chances against 1860 because 1860 are not good in defending flat passes with their slow defense. For instance Necat Aygün is brilliant in the air and I am absolutely confident that he will eliminate Ronny König but he is really slow as well and he is chanceless when being forced to sprint. Due to these facts, I think that Aue will have serious problems with the creating of goalscoring chances whereas I believe that 1860 will be much more dangerous with their strong short passing play in the offensive. Next point we should consider is the motivation. Here I honestly have some doubts. Aue will be fully motivated at home, their attitude has never been a problem and they will surely give 100%. 1860 actually blew their last promotion chance when losing in Frankfurt on Saturday but still they have a very little chance. A victory in Aue means their last chance of keeping in touch with the top three but I am not absolutely sure whether they will still be motivated enough. But nevertheless this does not discourage me from taking this level line on the guests. These are patently two teams of completely different quality and furthermore, Aue should be an opponent which suits almost perfectly to 1860 because they love to play against teams who have this style of playing football. First leg between them by the way was a comfortable 4:0 victory for 1860. 1860 should be considered as being clearer favoruties here, hence taking them with a reasonable stake.

[Benny1887]

Re: Bundesliga II - 14 March

14.03.2012 - Erzgebirge Aue vs. TSV 1860 Munchen http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/germany/2-bundesliga-2011-2012/aue-munich-1860-806377/#ah;2 TSV 1860 Munchen (+0) Odds: 1.92 (PinnacleSports) Stake: 6/10 Pretty obvious value on 1860. I have no idea for which reason odds are so balanced here, considering that the poorest team of the league plays at home against a team with really high potential. Aue have lately shown a slightly positive tendency since manager Baumann replaced former manager Schmitt. All in all, their whole playing style became more offensive-minded and they play in a more risky way. Nevertheless this could be really dangerous against 1860, a team with a superb counter ability. Last home game, Aue got their first home victory since September 2011 when beating FSV Frankfurt by 4:3 in a crazy match. Howsoever, these 4 goals rather were the result of unbelievable defense errors from Frankfurt. It was not a game where Aue showed a superb technical ability and where they created goalscoring opportunities at minute intervals. Hence this result might be a bit misleading but the defense problems of Aue recently became even worse. Today they also have to replace right back Pierre Le Beau which means that their back four has to change once more. Against Frankfurt, they were extremely prone to counter attacks through the wings. When Frankfurt attacked fast through the wings, Aue's defense was a big mess and they allowed some easy goals for Frankfurt. Bad for Aue that fast attacks through the wings are the biggest strength of 1860 although vital winger Stefan Aigner will miss this game with a flu. But in fact, Aue are a team which is extremely prone against fast attacks and fast strikers in general and especially this is 1860 biggest strength who have the fastest strikers of the league with Benny Lauth and Kevin Volland. No idea how Aue's slow central defense, consisting of Rene Klingbeil (or Adli Lachheb) and Thomas Paulus should stop them. Next point is that Aue are a team which mostly use long and high balls as well as crosses. This is because they know that their technical ability is a shame and because they know that the best player of their team, Ronny König, is a tall penalty box player who is brilliant in the air. This means that their style of playing bases on several high balls to König. But especially this is the wrong way if you want to make trouble for 1860's defense. For example, 1860 conceded 3 goals on Saturday when playing away against FSV Frankfurt. FSV Frankfurt is the exact opposite of Aue. They only use flat passes, never make high balls and their technical ability is more than fine. Hence they created several good chances against 1860 because 1860 are not good in defending flat passes with their slow defense. For instance Necat Aygün is brilliant in the air and I am absolutely confident that he will eliminate Ronny König but he is really slow as well and he is chanceless when being forced to sprint. Due to these facts, I think that Aue will have serious problems with the creating of goalscoring chances whereas I believe that 1860 will be much more dangerous with their strong short passing play in the offensive. Next point we should consider is the motivation. Here I honestly have some doubts. Aue will be fully motivated at home, their attitude has never been a problem and they will surely give 100%. 1860 actually blew their last promotion chance when losing in Frankfurt on Saturday but still they have a very little chance. A victory in Aue means their last chance of keeping in touch with the top three but I am not absolutely sure whether they will still be motivated enough. But nevertheless this does not discourage me from taking this level line on the guests. These are patently two teams of completely different quality and furthermore, Aue should be an opponent which suits almost perfectly to 1860 because they love to play against teams who have this style of playing football. First leg between them by the way was a comfortable 4:0 victory for 1860. 1860 should be considered as being clearer favoruties here, hence taking them with a reasonable stake.

FT 0:0 +/- 0.00 u Second void bet within three days. Nothing special to report here besides that 1860 were disappointing. Aue had one good chance in the 55th minute, 1860 had no mentionable chance. Fair draw although I had the impression that Aue were a bit closer to take the lead. 1860 with 11 vs 10 in the last 15 minutes but they did not create any opportunity although having one more player.