European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012

[MPLouis]

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[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 29 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Azerbaijan U21 v Iceland U21 (14:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.52 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wales U21 v Andorra U21 (16:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 20 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.21 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Germany U21 v Greece U21 (17:15 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.26 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 11 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Scotland U21 v Netherlands U21 (17:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] England U21 v Belgium U21 (18:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.28 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.36 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] San Marino U21 v Cyprus U21 (19:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.62 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.26 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.30 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012 San Marino U21 v Cyprus U21 Wednesday 29th February 19.30 As far as I can see, San Marino U21 last scored a goal over 4 years ago, in September 2007. They haven't managed a goal in the 20 games since then. So I think they should be very long odds to score in this game, even taking into account that Cyprus U21 at home should be an easier than average game. I'd say the odds of them scoring are maybe 20%, so the odds should be about 1.25 (1 divided by 0.8). San Marino U21 record: http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/san-marino/san-marino-under-21/matches/ San Marino current U21 group games: http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/teams/team=250168/matches/index.html Paddy Power are currently offering 1.8 on a Cyprus U21 clean sheet, which equates to a 55.5% chance. I don't like clean sheet bets (as it only takes a defensive lapse like a bad back pass or foul in the penalty area to concede), but I think it would be wrong to ignore the likely value on this one: Cyprus U21 clean sheet 1.8 Paddy Power Alternatively: Both To Score NO 1.67 Paddy Power

[pg_yid]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012 Yeah crazy value in that game tbh. The Cyprus win to nil is 1.91, it was evens last night, but Paddy Power restricted me to a whopping £1.73 on that! I managed however to get on the Cyprus -1 EH @ 1.7 with Boylesports. I think this is good value, but not as good as the bets you mention. Cyprus beat San Marino 6-0 at home, they are a reasonably poor side at this level but this result plus a recent win at home to Bosnia and less recently wins in Norway and Croatia confirm they are a class above San Marino. San Marino only lost 0-2 to Belarus at home and 0-3 at home to Bosnia, who are both probably better sides than Cyprus, so this could conceivably end 0-1...however San Marino also lost 0-6 at home to Iceland and 0-3 at home to Northern Ireland. These sides I would say are at a relatively similar level to Cyprus. All of Cyprus' U21 squad hail from the Cypriot league. Whilst it is not a top of league of Europe the teams in it are much stronger than those from San Marino, where the San Marino squad hail from. All things considered I believe 1.7 for Cyprus to win by two or more goals is a good value bet, though not certain to come in. I have staked 4% of my bank on it which is quite a big bet for me so really hope it does.

[pg_yid]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012 The Wales game is also interesting. Wales have quite a good U21 set up by the looks of it. They have come close to qualifying in recent years and they even beat Italy 2-1 a couple of years ago. The manager, Brian Flynn, has been there since 2004 so he has a lot of experience. The players come mainly from Premiership or Football League sides so the standard of their squad is pretty good. Andorra, their opponents, have an U21 setup which mirrors that of their first team. They lose the vast majority of games and rarely score but concede a lot more goals away from home than in Andorra. As with the San Marino game, the bets involving Andorra not to score are good value. Wales to win to nil was 1.53 with Paddy Power, however they are restricting me for this game as well so I am personally going for the -1 European handicap with Boylesports again. Wales only won 1-0 in Andorra and going by the match report I read they were a bit fortunate but I think they will find it a lot easier on home soil. They managed to beat Luxembourg 5-1 at home, who are a better side than Andorra, and as I've mentioned Andorra get beaten heavily in away games. There is a big class difference looking at past resultsof either side and the quality of the players involved so I think 1.5 is good value here. I have also done a double of the Cyprus U21 and Wales U21 straight wins which came to 1.42 with William Hill.

[pg_yid]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012 Although 2/3 of these bets came in, I got worried about the possibility of a 1-0 Cyprus win so covered that, so really it was 2/4 and a substantial loss for me overall. Never expected San Marino to score!

[MPLouis]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012

San Marino U21 v Cyprus U21 Wednesday 29th February 19.30 As far as I can see, San Marino U21 last scored a goal over 4 years ago, in September 2007. They haven't managed a goal in the 20 games since then. So I think they should be very long odds to score in this game, even taking into account that Cyprus U21 at home should be an easier than average game. I'd say the odds of them scoring are maybe 20%, so the odds should be about 1.25 (1 divided by 0.8). San Marino U21 record: http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/san-marino/san-marino-under-21/matches/ San Marino current U21 group games: http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/teams/team=250168/matches/index.html Paddy Power are currently offering 1.8 on a Cyprus U21 clean sheet, which equates to a 55.5% chance. I don't like clean sheet bets (as it only takes a defensive lapse like a bad back pass or foul in the penalty area to concede), but I think it would be wrong to ignore the likely value on this one: Cyprus U21 clean sheet 1.8 Paddy Power Alternatively: Both To Score NO 1.67 Paddy Power

Result: San Marino U21 1 Cyprus U21 2 Bet lost According the stats on the UEFA website, San Marino had more far more shots and corners in this game than their earlier ones, so statistically I think they had a much greater chance of scoring - In the earlier reverse fixture in Cyprus, the stats were: San Marino shots on target: 0 Corners: 0 http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/matches/round=2000192/match=2006794/index.html In yesterday's home game, the stats were; San Marino shots on target: 7 Corners: 6 http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/matches/round=2000192/match=2006809/index.html In their earlier home games against Belarus, Bosnia and Germany, San Marino had a TOTAL of 4 shots on target and 1 corner - an average of less than 1 shot on target per game, and 0.33 corners per game. You could say Cyprus are a poorer team than Belarus, Bosnia and Germany, but it sounds as though San Marino performed just as poorly in the away game in Cyprus. In yesterday's game, it sounds as though San Marino played better than expected and Cyprus worse. Cyprus only just managed to win by scoring in added time, to give them 3 points which keeps them in with a outside chance of qualifying in second place. I'm not sure what lessons it's possible to learn from all this. It's frustrating when a bet that looks very good value like this one loses. Was this bet good value or not? Any comments welcome :)

[pg_yid]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012

Result: San Marino U21 1 Cyprus U21 2 Bet lost According the stats on the UEFA website, San Marino had more far more shots and corners in this game than their earlier ones, so statistically I think they had a much greater chance of scoring - In the earlier reverse fixture in Cyprus, the stats were: San Marino shots on target: 0 Corners: 0 http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/matches/round=2000192/match=2006794/index.html In yesterday's home game, the stats were; San Marino shots on target: 7 Corners: 6 http://www.uefa.com/under21/season=2013/matches/round=2000192/match=2006809/index.html In their earlier home games against Belarus, Bosnia and Germany, San Marino had a TOTAL of 4 shots on target and 1 corner - an average of less than 1 shot on target per game, and 0.33 corners per game. You could say Cyprus are a poorer team than Belarus, Bosnia and Germany, but it sounds as though San Marino performed just as poorly in the away game in Cyprus. In yesterday's game, it sounds as though San Marino played better than expected and Cyprus worse. Cyprus only just managed to win by scoring in added time, to give them 3 points which keeps them in with a outside chance of qualifying in second place. I'm not sure what lessons it's possible to learn from all this. It's frustrating when a bet that looks very good value like this one loses. Was this bet good value or not? Any comments welcome :)

In my opinion, it was still one of the best value bets I've seen yet in 2012. It's stating the obvious, but not all value bets come in, just as even the worst mug punt will come in every once in a while. Like you said I think San Marino played better than expected, and Cyprus worse. Perhaps the artificial turf San Marino played on was a factor, and an inexperienced side like Cyrprus struggled to deal with it. I would suggest caution with U21 matches in general, because the personnel changes a lot so there is a small sample size of the most pertinent results. I would also suggest caution as a general rule when a very poor side is at home to a poor side, as freak results do occasionally happen such as this one in these instances. Even taking that in mind, I would take your bets again anyday. They were value and I'm pretty sure if it was played out 100 times you would have been well in profit.

[MPLouis]

Re: European U21 Qualifiers Weds 29th Feb 2012 Thanks for your comments pg :ok