Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012

[Bathtime For Rupert]

3.05 Kempton - 4pts win Planet Of Sound @ 4/1 (Hills) Philip Hobbs' horses just seem to be on the turn out of a bad patch, and I hope so, as I really fancy his top-weight in this high-profile handicap chase. Nacarat is obviously one who tends to go well in this race, and here in general, but has been out of sorts, and I'd rather take the chance of a horse who I feel sure to get a good run from, rather than one who may do so, and the excuses made for his poor recent runs, may not be valid. This horse, like the Tom George runner, loves going fresh. 141F32 is his record after lengthy absences in his career, with the 3rd coming behind Imperial Commander in the 2010 Betfair Chase, and the most recent 2nd coming in last year's Hennessy. Despite that form not appearing to be vintage, he still put in a fine effort, and a repeat would see him go extremely close here. This one did disappoint in the King George last year around here, which is obviously a concern, 24412F1 is the rest of his career record on right-handed tracks, so I wouldn't be too concerned by him returning to this track. He's a class act who has won a Grade 1 in Ireland, beating the likes of War Of Attrition, Cooldine, Denman, and Tranquil Sea, and his effort to be beaten less than 10 lengths by Imperial Commander at Haydock was another top run. If he runs up to any of these performances, he will take some stopping here in a handicap in my eyes, and everything looks primed for a tough defence of the title for the Hobbs and Johnson combination - the most successful trainer and jockey respectively, in the race's history. 3.25 Newcastle - 2pts win Incentivise @ 14/1 (Hills) Interesting, but relatively unspectacular renewal of the Eider Chase, and Richard Lee sends up this chap for the stable's first runner ever at Newcastle. He has three runners today, each at different tracks, and typical first-choice jockey Charlie Poste replaces Jake Greenall on this one. Whether he had a choice, I do not know, but it's no negative, for sure. I ticked off a few of these, perhaps rather foolishly, but Portrait King has been heavily smashed in the weights, and I'm happy to take him on under his penalty, for all he is a threat. A couple of fancied runners came down when in contention in the recent race he won, so I'll let him win at his current price of 4/1 I think, if he remains fairly treated. The form of Eyre Square's win at Kelso doesn't look all that strong, and he, along with Mister Marker, Captain Americo, and Posh Bird, may have exaggerated form hopes. The former had struggled either side of that success, and I'm not convinced the latter three were contesting great races last time out. I've been quite clinical with my assessment here, so am prepared to be incorrect, but I do really quite like Incentivise - especially at a very nice price of 14/1. Poste and Lee team up again, a partnership which boasts a very healthy +£86 profit to level stakes, and I don't think they're bringing this one up North to make up the numbers. He really is a true stayer, which is what is needed in this contest. He's a winner off 3lbs lower in December 2010, so his current mark of 113 may not be beyond him - especially over marathon trips. He does have a habit of getting outpaced in his races, but that seems a little less probable around this track and over this trip, but this occured in each of his races this season. Was a bit of an eyecatcher on his seasonal return when staying on without threatening, before disappointing at Exeter. However, he seems happier on left-handed tracks so I will forgive him that effort. His defeat last time back at Bangor, when beaten 28l, wasn't as bad as it appears on first glance. He looked to be struggling before keeping on quite well again to reach 4th of 9 come the line, and the extra yardage on a more testing track will suit here. Stronger handling will certainly suit, and he's just sliding down the weights. He's had a nice break since his latest run, to freshen him up, and his record after a break is pretty good. He's a previous winner when fresh, and his best effort this season came first time out, so the 73 days off the track can be a blessing, rather than a concern for this one. He's possibly one of the better treated horses in the race, and really ought to relish the conditions today. He looks overpriced, and is well worth an investment at the price. 4.10 Kempton - 4pts win Zaynar @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) I think this price is massive for the very talented, yet quirky horse of Nick Williams here. He demonstrated how good he is when romping to victory from the front over this trip at Ascot in December - when coming home 9l clear of Kumbeshwar, who has run well on all three starts since (1st and two 2nds to smart opposition). He can sulk, and hit flat spots, but this race could be made for him, as he should be able to dominate this field, unlike on the last two occasions. This looks weaker, and the favourite is too short for beating nothing of real quality - albeit by a wide margin - last time out. Zaynar is the proven class act in the field, and Tom Scudamore takes the ride. He's 2-7 for the yard, and should play to the horse's strengths. Williams' horses are in good form also. The horse also goes well right-handed, with form figures of 114214 around courses of this nature. The first of those fourths came on a seasonal debut, and the most recent effort, came at Ascot over 2m6f, and he still ran a good race from the front. The trip perhaps stretched him, and he set a good pace. He did well to go down by less than 8l under the circumstances. Last time out he couldn't dominate with the brilliant Sprinter Sacre tanking his way through to dominate the race, and the effort is probably best ignored. This looks much more suitable, and he won't meet anything that good here. He can never be a very confident bet, but I think he's quite criminally overpriced here, and I'll happily take a chance.

[Lars]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 Quite a disappointing turnout for the prize-fund, but a competitive affair nonetheless and I feel that COOL FRIEND (14:30) has a win in her off this kind of rating, especially on her form in 2010 and her last chasing start, which was a good run considering she wasn’t running over ideal conditions and in a hot race, and although she put in a bad run over hurdles last time, she’s a better chaser now and can definitely give the market principles something to think about. She was a terribly consistent mare when running in novice chase company (finished 2nd on five occasions over fences) but there’s little wrong with her attitude. Her efforts this season have only seen her run over the bigger obstacles on one occasion, that effort coming on heavy ground in a very decent Graduation Chase. Beaten 10 lengths, she definitely showed she retained the enthusiasm for this game, jumping well and staying on nicely enough over an inadequate trip. She ran only 12 days later when last seen, that was over timber and I don’t think she stayed the 3 mile trip that day (was also weak in the market) and although that effort will have to be built upon, she tries fences again which I think is her better discipline. The market around this race revolves around Hunt Ball, who has flown up the ratings by a huge 58lbs since winning in November. He’s a 13/8 shot but that leaves little in the way of value today, especially as he’s a further 10lbs higher than when last winning only a week ago. He’ll be a tough nut to crack but I think there’s little elsewhere in the field that’s potentially worth an investment bar Cool Friend. Fahrisee looks on a pretty high mark and I’m not sure the trip will suit, as he can take a keen hold early on, whilst all Arrayan’s best form has come on soft ground and this is his fencing debut, so a watching brief is probably advisable at his single figure odds. Golan Guy won well last time but I’m not convinced he’s up to improving to a rating in the region of 132+, which he’ll need to run too, to win today. Busyisit is getting long in the tooth and has only run once off the back of a long absence, and this veteran may need more runs to be fully fit. Panjo Bere is tempting with blinkers applied, as he’s on a good mark and comes from a stable who know how to get one to spring back to form, for me it’s just a bit too optimistic to believe he’ll do so today, especially as he might need a bit more cut in the ground. Not So Sure Dick is effectively priced on his form behind Hunt Ball, and does on first glance look on a good mark. I do feel though that he’s decisively moderate over fences and will need 3 miles, and could be worth laying at his current odds in the region of 4.50. Cool Friend looks worth a small/medium sized bet here, as she jumps well and she handles the ground along with the flat track. She could well be on a good mark, especially on the basis of her last chasing start at Exeter and should be closer to 11/2 rather than her current price of 8/1. The booking of Richard Johnson is one of intent for a yard who is 3/11 in the past two weeks. I feel she has the scope to improve to a mark in the region of 130 if everything goes right for her, so she’s well worth a try off this lenient looking rating of 119. Hunt Ball is seriously respected, but I think Cool Friend is the one to take him on with. The now “Racing Plus Chase” hasn’t got as big a field as it usually does, but it is of course a fairly competitive race. A few here will have eyes on Cheltenham or Aintree and I do think that SARANDO (15:05) has been the forgotten horse since falling in the Hennessey and although his form subsequently hasn’t been great, I think he’s been raced with this contest in mind and he looks severely overpriced if putting it altogether off a mark of 145. A fair hurdler, he really improved for fences although was a tad slow on the uptake, but put in an absolutely cracking effort on good ground at the Aintree Festival last year, when finishing only a neck behind the classy Quito De La Roque, just being worn down in the closing stages after a protracted duel in the Mildmay Novice event. He’s only really backed that up once subsequently, when winning a Graduation Chase event at Carlisle over this trip fairly easily, although on the subsequent form of the others he needed to. Pitched into the Hennessey three weeks later, he held every chance travelling well until falling with five left to jump. I’m pretty sure he would have in the top six or so if he’d completed (had jumped well prior to this) so it wasn’t a performance to be too disheartening, unless his confidence has been dented. Some will point to that being so when pulled up in the Rowland Meryick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. However, for a start he was held-up (which doesn’t suit) and was running on bottomless ground (also probably didn’t suit). He never really travelled and it’s an effort worth ignoring in my view, and the 4lbs he’s been dropped in the handicap because of it only makes him a more attractive punting prospect. He wasn’t seen until last week at Ascot when running over an inadequate trip over hurdles. Paul Webber has been quoted that they only ran him to get a run into him, as he’s a “stuffy horse” and that stable had been held-up a bit by the frost. It’s easy to see this by his effort, tapped for speed before staying on again under hands and heels riding. To me, it looked like an obvious pipe-opener for this race. Although the likes of Planet of Sound and Deep Purple are slightly more classy animals, they have targets elsewhere in the Grand National and although they’ll be unpenalised for any victory, I wouldn’t have said a hard race today would be completely in their best interests for the Aintree Marathon, along with the fact I’m not entirely sure that the drop in distance for them both is ideal. Animals such as Michel Le Bon are priced really on reputation at home, although his last effort in the Hennessey was a promising one, he isn’t really a punting proposition at 5/1 for anyone without inside information. Nacarat has a cracking record in this race but I’d rather be on a potential improver than one who’s falling like a stone in the ratings, and I just think that Sarando has been completely ignored in this market. He seems to have been raced since the Hennessey with this sort of contest in mind give his past two starts and I just feel he could run to something just shy of 154, which would put him in with a fair chance off his current mark. He’s no 16/1 shot in my book anyway, and I’d probably have him closer to the odds of Hectors Choice than of the outsider of the field. Good ground suits him and so does this kind of track, and although there’s a slight question mark to his jumping to his right (did it slightly at Carlisle, I’m not particularly concerned though) which could inconvenience, I’m more than willing to chance my arm that everything goes right for him, and if it does, he’s more than capable of being involved in the finish. Bets 14:30 Kempton – Cool Friend; 2pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 15:05 Kempton – Sarando; 2pts @ 16/1 BetVictor (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 2.55 Newcastle Conquisto 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 >Bet365 Rather large bet considering the price of this horse but I feel he has a good chance in what doesn't look the most competitive of races. Conquisto made an excellent start to hurdles back in 2010 finishing 2nd on hurdles debut at Doncaster before winning twice at Fakenham and Market Rasen. He then finished an excellent 5th in the Swinton at Haydock just 7 lengths behind the winner Eradicate. In that race Overturn, and Toubab both finished ahead of him and they are obviously very decent yard sticks. He ran in that race off a mark of 131 so is only 2lbs lower here but has shown he can be competitive off this mark. He hasn't had much racing since, and made a very low key return to action in 2011 finishing 8th of 12 at Market Rasen. He came on plenty for that run however and finished a very good 6th in a class 2 handicap at Aintree which was won by Far Away So Close. Not seen out since that run he made another low key reappearance last week at Market Rasen where he finished 7th of 10 after 316 days off the track. He travelled well for most of the race but weakened at the 2nd last hurdle and finished well behind. He likes to travel up with the pace which I think is the best place to be at Newcastle and he should have come on plenty for that run last week. The only 2 horses higher rated in this race are not in the best of form which makes this a very winnable race for Conquisto if you compare this race to his Aintree run last year. There are a couple of unexposed types here but they have to prove themselves in this better company. Stormy weather looks the biggest danger as he is chasing a hat-trick and the jockey's claim partly offsets his rise in the weights. Spiekroog must have a good chance also given he beat Bourne last time out who franked the form last week. I am guessing Conquisto must have come out of his last race very well, which is why they are making a quick reappearance with him. Is is proven that he does not go very well fresh but could possibly be a totally different proposition with that run under his belt. He has proven himself in better company and has shown he can be competitive off this sort of mark. The Steve Gollings horses are not winning but are running to form. He did have a winner on the flat the other day and the fact he has had no recent winners over jumps would not worry me. He is still only a 7 year old and is still relatively unexposed over hurdles with just 8 runs under his belt. I am very hopeful of a good run. 3.05 Kempton Nacarat 5pts win @ 4/1 >William Hill I believe Nacarat is different gravy to his competition in this race and if he can return to form then he must have an excellent chance of winning this. The Tom George stable are in great form at the moment and Paddy Brennen is full of confidence with 7 winners in the last couple of weeks. Nacarat is used to running in higher grade races than this and I expect him to bounce back to form with the stable going well. He hasn't won since winning in grade 1 company at Aintree in April last year but I think he can be excused for all 3 runs since returning to action in October. He was entitled to need his comeback run at Wetherby and probably found the ground too deep at Haydock. His run in the King George can also be excuse given he tried to stay with the big guns but folded tamely from the 14th fence. He has been given a nice break since that run and everything looks in his favour tomorrow. Ground should be much more to his liking and he has a good record on flat tracks and does often run well here. Planet of Sound looks the main danger but I just feel the Hobbs horses aren't firing at the moment. Michel Le Bon made an encouraging return to action but the Nicholls stable are not in good form at the moment so I would be against that one. Nacarat is a genuine grade 1 performer and although he is getting on a bit, I can see him having too many guns for this field. 4.45 Kempton Pause and Clause 1pt EW @ 14/1 >Paddy Power Bit of a risky one as this horse has not been in the best of form for a long time now but this horses 2 hurdles wins have both come over this distance. The first of them wins came very early on in his career over CD and the 2nd win came at the festival in 2010. Since that win however this horse been on the decline and has dropped from 145 to 126. He had a few attempts over fences which didn't work out but they are persevering with him over hurdles. He has had a recent SPIN on the flat at Kempton and should come here ready to rock n roll. Emma Lavelle had an easy winner today which was Noel Fehily's first for the yard and it might be a sign that stable are about to come into form. Her horses have been running well of late without getting their heads in front. This is competitive and my selection has plenty of weight, but he has dropped a long way in the ratings since has last win and could take advantage.

[fosterbet5]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 KEMPTON , 14:30 hunt ball 7/4 - 15:40 grumeti 10/11 - 16:10 zaynar 9/2 CHEPSTOW - 14:40 @SP teaforthree FAIRYHOUSE - 13:55 minsk 8/15 - 15:30 prince de buchene 2/1 LINGFEILD - 15.20 kings trail 20/1 e/w - 17:05 baby strange 7/1 e/w

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 2:00 Kempton: Kayalar 1pt e/w 33/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Its interesting that Evan Williams puts Kayalar in here first time out over hurdles. To make your debut in a Grade 2 is a big ask, however Kayalar was half decent on the flat for John Oxx and eye catchingly was bred by His Highness the Aga Khan. Horses bred that magnificent owner breader have gone well in the Triumph. It could just be that Kayalar has schooled well over hurdles and he was given a spin on the all weather to check his well being and blow away a few cob webs. 2:30 Kempton: Golan Guy 1pt win 12/1 Paddypower & Arrayan 1pt win 15/2 Stan James Golan Guy has taken well to fences and there is a chance his last run when beating Hearty Royale at Plumpton has been a little under rated. Permit trainer Alison Batchelor and Mark Quinlan have a respectable record when they combine given they are lower profile compared to some in the National Hunt game. Golan Guy had previously mainly raced in Ireland so the handicapper has little comparative form to go on. Arrayan makes his debut over fences and while he is not let in lightly there is a little room for improvement and he could go on to better things in this sphere. Arrayan is quite lightly raced and with his trainer David Pipe in good form, a decent run could be on the cards. 3:05 Kempton: Deep Purple 1pt e/w 14/1 Boylesports (1/4 123) Deep Purple looks a decent each way bet. He is an eleven year old and has mainly plied his trade in Graded races. Last time out in December he dropped in to handicap company and came through nicely to win off a mark of 149. Deep Purple is five pounds higher here, however he does run very well fresh and added to that he seems to go best right handed. Looking down his list of wins he has notched victories at Sandown, Huntingdon, Hereford Taunton, Ascot, and Kempton too over hurdles. The ground should not be a problem. Deep Purple may be a little vulnerable off this mark however he looks likely to give his running and should go pretty close. Prices available at time of original post.....

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 3.05 Kempton Racing Plus Chase (formerly RP chase) Key stats Dec to Feb LTO 14/15 1st or 2nd LTO 12/15 (2011 3rdLTO) 10/1 or under 13/15 11st + 10/15 1st LTO 10/15 Favs 4/15 Previous course experience 10/15 Shortlist Course form shown in brackets Deep purple (11PP) Hectors choice (2) Consigliere (6) Mount Oscar (130232) Fiendish flame () will be back with more.......

Thanks

---

[h=2][/h]

a quick glance in jTW's thread gives me a few more pointers

11/11

had won between 1-3 Handicap Chases

11/11

had won at 2m5f+

10/11

were rated 141+

10/11

ran between 2-5 times since August

10/11

had won at Cl 2+ Deep Purple rates the best of these based on the trends although only 1 run this season, the horse is decent class and jumps well here. Fiendish flame and Hecotrs choice havent won over 2m 5f which is a concern. Mount Oscar rated only 141 and now 13yo

Bets DEEP PURPLE 10pts win @ 9/1

>Paddy Power

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012

KEMPTON , 14:30 hunt ball 7/4 - 15:40 grumeti 10/11 - 16:10 zaynar 9/2 CHEPSTOW - 14:40 @SP teaforthree FAIRYHOUSE - 13:55 minsk 8/15 - 15:30 prince de buchene 2/1 LINGFEILD - 15.20 kings trail 20/1 e/w - 17:05 baby strange 7/1 e/w

We need reasoning please, a list of horses names and race times is completely useless and could be found in a rag like The Sun. Cheers. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 K 2.00 Une artiste ran up a sequence now followihg wins in France, DAvid Bass won well on him last week and although this is stronger, not without a chance under the guidance of Geraghty on a course where Henderson always has winners. Geraghty says the horse ran well on the gallops this week and a tidy 13/2 price avalable due to the other triumph hurdle possibles in the field 13/2 3.05 Deep Purple - already done the trends (see other thread) on this race and at 9/1, i rate this a decent chance today 8/1 3.40 Grumeti - should be unbeaten having fell at Newbury when well clear, this one will take all the beating today for inform trianer Alan King. Keys was slightly disappointing at ascot last week but again should be feared with the jockey / trainer combo. 4/7 4.10 Cristal Bonus - does have an entry for the arkle but will no doubt go for the 2m 4f novice chase at the festival Won well at Chepstow and been waiting to see this one. 11/8 4.45 So Fine - Hobbs is the man for handicap hurdles this time of year and this one could win for the 3rd time this season in a mixed race full of horses that should win a race but rarely do. Very competitive as always but So Fine could have further improvement to come. Big price also 12/1 decided to go EW this week and cover the above in 10 x 0.025pt ew trebles and a 0.05pts ew accy good luck all

[Trotter]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 Thye RP 'Odds Comparison' is showing that Laddies have Planet of Sound at 25/1..........with best price 9/2 with the other firms ! Surely some mistake................or it's about to be declared a non runner

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012

Thye RP 'Odds Comparison' is showing that Laddies have Planet of Sound at 25/1..........with best price 9/2 with the other firms ! Surely some mistake................or it's about to be declared a non runner

Since the RP changed the odds comparison, it's been very dodgy. I clicked on the 25s earlier, and the betslip came up with Crescent Island 25/1.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012 3:40 Kempton: Terre Du Vent 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 Grumeti will be hard to beat and has proven form over hurdles. Looking at Terre Du Vent though she is a dual Listed race winner in France and was not beaten far in a Group One. There is no guartantee she will translate that flat form to the jumps and she may even need further. However, Tom George has done very well with his imports and Baby Mix and Module spring to mind. They both won at the first time of asking and with Paddy Brennan again doing the steering Terre Du Vent could run well at a decent price.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jumps Racing - Saturday 25th February 2012

Mr Syntax 2.20 Newcastle. 1 point win. Decent effort last time and he should be more than capable of improving upon it. Gets in off the same mark today, so with no trip and ground worries, he has no excuses. Has had a bit of a break, but this race been in their minds and so if all goes well, he should be fighting out the finish. 5/1 Bet365 (bog)