Jump Racing; Monday 20th December

[Lars]

Although he didn’t display the greatest show of jumping when last seen two months ago, I think that HORSHAM LAD (15:40) still retains plenty of scope for improvement off a rating of 113 and over a course he has enjoyed success and on ground that he’ll enjoy, I feel he’s a big price today. A winning pointer, he made a seamless transition to handicaps under rules, scoring on debut here after an absence on a 5lbs lower mark back in October. That was over a little shorter than the 3m2f he runs off today but on the basis of that start, he’ll have little problem in staying the extra yardage. He looked a chaser with plenty of scope but blotted his copybook by falling at Newbury. I was there that day and the ground did look plenty quick enough for him, especially as all his best form had come on a soft surface. When last seen, he got exactly that ground and was in the process of running a big race when sent off 15/8f, but made a horrible blunder two out and never stood a chance afterwards. He wouldn’t have won, the winner being far ahead of his mark at that time but he’d surely have done much better than the eventual 16 length reversal. Even if his jumping on his past two starts has let him down, he jumped really well here before, which is reassuring and connections have surely worked hard on his jumping since he was last seen, the 61 day break bringing hope they’ve schooled him extensively. If his jumping has improved, which is entirely possible considering he’s still an unexposed chaser, he can prove much better than his current rating. He hinted in Hunter Chases that he could be a very decent type and his opening effort in handicaps suggested that plenty more was to come. Off only 5lbs higher than that effort, for a yard amongst the winners (helpful, especially with the recent cold-snap possibly interfering with work at home), he has a decent chance in this kind of field. It’s a competitive one, but I feel Horsham Lad is one still improving and he should go close here. Although the UK form figures of TAKE OVER SIVOLA (16:10) show that the 5 year old has been beaten by more than 20 lengths in each of his three starts whilst with David Pipe, I think he’s the sort to improve for blinkers, given that he races quite lazily at times and does look in need of sharpening up. The application of the tongue-tie and blinkers combination could do such a thing and on a stiff track over this trip, he could improve on all known form. A winner in France (the last of which in a race that didn’t work out), he had a strong preference for very soft ground. With that in mind, I think he can be excused for two very average showings at Exeter over 3 miles and then 2m4f (subject of support for the latter). Although, his run over 2m4f suggested he did have the speed for the trip, he did take a fair bit of rousting along, actually finding under pressure before tiring a couple of fences out. With that laziness in mind, I think blinkers could bring him on a fair bit, it’s difficult to describe in words but he just seems the type that headgear could do just the trick. Similar thoughts could be attributed to when last seen two months, on heavy ground over 3m2f. I don’t think he stayed, but he travelled in a similar manner (quite well, but lazily at some points). Now dropped 7lbs since coming to these shores, and down to a 0-115 for the first time, I think he can improve out of this level with the blinkers applied first time. The current soft ground will be perfect, and this 2m4f trip on that ground on a stiff track theoretically should be ideal. Whether he improves for the blinkers is a matter for debate, but I do feel he’s the type that is likely to and if he does, then he’s capable of running 10lbs or so better than his current mark. The David Pipe stable don’t seem to have been held-up too much by the weather are continuing to go well, and in an open contest, he’s worth chancing. Bets 15:40 Carlisle – Horsham Lad; 2pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes (bog) 16:10 Carlisle – Take Over Sivola; 2pts @ 7/1 William Hill (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 20th December 3.40 Carlisle - 2pts win Sandofthecolosseum @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Decent staying chase and Alex Hales (horses seem to be going well) saddles one here that I am interested in. Paul Moloney comes for his only ride of the day, and appears to have a decent chance at a price. This horse ran well in staying hurdles at the start of his career, although his form started to tail off somewhat at the end of 2010. A decent effort in March 2011 followed, before returning to the track with a close 2nd over fences at Wetherby. He probably would have won but for a couple of jumping errors. The winner has gone well since and the third is a decent type also - the front three were clear. Is only 2lbs higher than that run today, which suggests to me that he has a good chance of winning. However, he couldn't really build on that effort last time. Some late errors exaggerated the losing margin, although the horses in front of him were nice types. The winner is now rated 21lbs higher having won again since, the 2nd is a solid yardstick off 121, and the 3rd ran a close 2nd next time out. They did finish quite strung out in the end, but it wasn't a terrible effort against some decent types. He obviously faces some more tough opposition here, but has a nice weight on this soft ground, and hopefully will come on again for that run. Had a couple of months off to freshen him up, and the extended trip here of 3m2f shouldn't be a concern seen as he stayed 3 miles on deep ground over hurdles. He's related to staying chasers and I think there's scope off this mark if he can jump a bit better. The yard are 2-6 at the track.

[kroni]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 20th December 16:10 Carlisle Et Maintenant 5.50 In good form at present and still looks on a decent mark on some of his form, has won here off mark of 113 over 2 mile and has been second off mark of 120 here over this trip both on heavy ground. Conditions here today look in his favour should go close, danger could be Playingthefield who was beaten by the the selection last time and is 5lb better off and may benifit from this shorter trip. Carlisle 15:05 Dusky Bob 5.50 Form of his latest 2nd has been boosted by the winner who won a decent race at Haydock on saturday and the third won a maiden nto, conditions suit here today and if in the same form should go close. Carlisle 15:40 Do It For Dalkey 4.33 Well impressed with this horse last time when second to Deep Purple in a better race than this today, still on same mark and the drop back in trip wont be a problem on this soft ground. I been trying to work out how this horse suddenly found so much improvement and apparently had a breathing op and since then has won 2 and had a second in another and gone up 31lb. really like chances of these today not very often i like so many that are short prices as this so i'll do e-w patent with betfred aswell 1pt win on each.