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Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football)


Sco

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Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) I've been reading through quite a lot of posts since I arrived here, and some of the statistics given and inside information has been excellent. I figure that if you ONLY play with games which have been strongly examined by punters, then you more often than not would come out on top. Another thing I have noticed is that most punters here also dont back low priced teams (Bruise I know you and some others do), so a 60% strike rate could produce a handy yield I think. The Rules -This is a purely football system -Selections must be made following the recommendations of punters from this forum. (This includes both the Britain AND Europe sections) -Selections can be anything, backs, lays, short priced, long priced etc. -The selections made must have a decent reasoning behind them, this can be either team info, or statistics -The starting bank will be 100pts -A stake of 1-10 pts will be placed on each bet Predictions -I have no idea how this will work, so this is just a paper trial -Risk of going bankrupt...again I really dont know! Problems -Some punters are more experienced than other...should thier opinion be taken a little bit higher? -Punters will put different weights to bets (ie some back heavily Value, others dont) Hope that clears everything up. Im going to go search the forums for some very tasty selection and post back up. Id love to know what you guys think...whether it will work, or perhaps how I can counter the problems I have thought of? Thanks Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 100 Total staked = 0 Number of bets = 0 Winning bets = 0 Losing bets = 0 Strike rate = 0 Yield = N/A Profit/Loss = 0 Bet 1 Man Utd V Middlesbrough - Sat Jan 29th Man Utd to win @1.44 Coral 5pts Info by SecondSight

MU/Boro A fixture that has made a fortune in the past for punters willing to back Boro including me. Added to this MU match tonight and their upcoming match against Arsenal next week, Boro's draw this season at OT, and the BBC picking the game as upset material, all may suck punters in to backing against MU. Take my advice and back MU.....why you may say
  • FAC is the lowest priority for Boro behind EPL and UEFA Cup (evidence few tickets sold by Boro, only 2000 expected to travel, MU made 8000 tickets available).
  • No new faces at Boro, signings or injured returning for MU game
  • MU on great unbeaten run dates back to mid November
  • MU not conceeding. Boro conceeding.
  • Boro likely to play youth team members (evidence 5 fifteen year olds were selected for reserves last night, which means the 17 year olds have been penciled in for MU game) quite ironic considering the number of times MU have done this in past cup competitions.
  • As AK says MU focused on Cups more, as league is lost.
  • 4/9 looks great price when you consider MU were 2/7 at home to Villa last week and I expect the Villa side put out then to be stronger than the team Boro will put out on Saturday. Usually MU are 2/7 at home to Boro.

The big unknown with the earlier rounds of both cups nowadays is the team that will be put out by either club. MU large squad gives them to the opportunity to rotate nearly all their positions, while Boro have lost several key players in the spine of the team who can't be replaced (namely Boateng, Viduka, Mendieta, Ehiogu, Riggott) with the same quality. I feel this is one reason why the FAC is always won now by the teams with the big squads with strength in depth. Fred Done is quoting 8/13 it will be won by one of the big 3. Fergie had a wry smile on his face when told his side struggled against Boro at OT, as he replied not in the cup, as he knew he was playing them at the right time this time. SecondSight

I would just add to this that after Man U have just lost to Chelsea, I think Ferguson will put slightly more emphasis on the FA cup as he might have done. Although there is the Arsenal game which may be in the back of the players mind, they are going to want to keep the possibly only realistic chance of silverware going for this season. Sco
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 2 FC Koln v Burghausen - Fri Jan 28th Burghausento win @8.00 Stan James 1pt Info by Kojic2003

FC Koln v Burghausen Koln’s Lukas Sinkiewicz(injury) and Sinkala(suspension) will miss Friday’s game, but who cares about that anyway!?They’re constantly buying players from the higher level and now this team has a bunch of quality players who could easily come in and do the job.With their amazing squad and in-form Lukas Podolski(scored 4 goals at Cottbus last week, and not so long ago he scored twice for the German national team), they surely deserve to be rated as a favourites in this fixture, but such a high price on Burghausen is simply ridiculous.The visitors lack creativity since their best player Youssef Mokhtari(Energie Cottbus) left the club, but they still have a bunch of fantastic and mentally very strong guys in the squad that really know to play this game.With one or two good midfielders more, they could be one of the biggest candidates for a promotion IMO.Their goalkeeper Gospodarek is one of the best at this level, if not the best, forward Reisinger is a pure class as well as Ronald “Ronaldo” Schmidt and Wiesinger.Their defense also looks great, sometimes almost untouchable.After a big victory over Energie Cottubus, Koln could easily underestimate Burghausen, and the visitors will surely know how to use this advantage.Burghausen can play a very tight defense and cause a huge troubles from a (very dangerous) counterattacks after that, they are capable to take everything under control and play a very attacking football, they are always dangerous from the set-pieces,…In other words, Burghausen will have an answer in all situations and they’ll surely create enough scoring chances in Friday’s match.Koln’s home record looks good(6-2-0, 15:5), but some facts must be taken into consideration when it comes to this side.They didn’t impress in most of those matches(lack of the motivation is one of the biggest reasons).For example, they were 0:2 down against the worst away side - Dynamo Dresden and it was Lukas Podolski who saved their asses, scoring hat-trick in the last 15 minutes.Also, another poor away side, Erfurt, was 1:0 up against Koln, but new signing Tsiartas scored an equalizer one minute from time(it was their last home match).Burghausen are one class above Erfurt and Dynamo and they will surely not blow up everything in that way.Although they failed to beat KSC last week, they’re going into Friday’s game full of confidence as they produced a very strong performances there.It was just one of those days, so I really don’t think they’ll suffer too much.Expekt has a fantastic offer: Burghausen(7.50), while you can find even a better odds at exchanges and this is simply too good to miss.In the worst case, Burghausen +1(2.12 at PointBet) is also more than acceptable.Most of the 2.Bundesliga matches are open, so you can rarely see a one-way matches in this league.Under these circumstances, it’s all about desire, and Koln will surely lack motivation(everybody knows they’ll play in 1.Bundesliga next season), while Burghausen will give more than 100% of their real possibilities to make a good result in this game.They beat Koln 4:2 earlier in this season and they can do that once again for sure.This game really has a potential banana skin written all over it.
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 3 Essen v Eintracht Trier - Fri Jan 28th Essen to win @2.25 Skybet 2pts Info by Kojic2003

Essen v Eintracht Trier Essen held a strong home team - Trier to a 1:1 draw earlier in the season, being better side for most of the game which was quite impressive as they were trashed at home to Erzgebirge Aue 1:5 just one week before that match.This time their chances of taking all points are bigger than ever IMO, although they are on the bottom.A huge injury crisis is the main reason for such a poor results, but even under those circumstances Essen produced an amazing performances(especially against a very powerful home side Furth when they played without half of the starting lineup) and showed that they simply deserve to avoid the relegation to Regionalliga at the end of the season.Also, one of the main reasons for their poor league position is their defense and their coach was forced to find a players during winter break that could fix all those holes at the back.They signed three defenders - Kaluzny(Bayer Leverkusen), Gaede(on loan from Borussia M’gladbach) and Larsen(Viborg) - who played in last week’s game at Aue and Essen managed to get a point there.They could have easily taken all the points as they were 1:0 up eight minutes from time, but the equalizer came in the moments of a very big snow(I doubt they even saw the ball!?).Nevertheless, this is still a big result which should definitely give them a necessary confidence ahead of Friday’s match.They are getting some very important players back from injury/suspension(Sven Lintjens is available for selection again, while Yildirim will make his return very soon, so Essen are only without two players now Nascimento and Silvio Patz, which isn’t such a big blow at all) and we are finally going to see a very strong Essen side on the pitch.Eintracht Trier will be without defensive midfielder Drageljevic(suspension) which is surely a blow as they traditionally lack quality players at the back.Although Trier have enough quality to win this one, I really feel they are the best possible opponents for Essen at the moment.Never motivated enough in these kind of matches, never good in defense, very rarely good away from home and always happy in the middle of the table(they have far a bigger potential, but…).Essen have to pick up all the points if they are to climb up on the table and I’m sure they’ll be fired up for this one.A very strong home side VS poor/mediocore away(but pretty good in overall) side that usually lacks motivation against a non-attractive opponents.Sounds like a home win, and with this price I rate this bet as one of the best deals in this round.Essen(2.20)!
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 4 Munchen 1860 v Erzgebirge Aue - Fri Jan 28th Munchen to win @1.73 Skybet 2pts Info by Kojic2003

1860 Munchen v Erzgebirge Aue Munchen looked extremely poor in the first half of the season, but they’re still one of the biggest candidates for a promotion and I believe they’ll finally show their real potential.They made a very good result in a derby match against Unterhaching(1:1) last week and they should build on this result.Erzgebirge Aue are far from being impressive these days, especially away from home and with support of their fans Munchen are well capable to beat Aue.The games are rapidly running out, so they have no time for any calculations.1860 Munchen(1.70)!
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Due to feedback below, I have decided to make a fixed staking plan after all. As I already have placed bets, I will discount the FC Koln game as that was a clear outsider at 7.00 who I would not have bet on with a fixed system. The way i will do this is to give 10pts bets for any game rated at 2.00 or under, and 5pts for any games that are priced higher than 2.00. If Although these three results have gone through already, I will included them in the results as they were selections made prior. So to clear things up here are the changed stakes on the first bets. Man Utd V Middlesbrough - Sat Jan 29th 10pts Essen v Eintracht Trier - Fri Jan 28th 5pts Munchen 1860 v Erzgebirge Aue - Fri Jan 28th 10pts Will update after the man U game tommorrow.:hope

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Results Man Utd V Middlesbrough - Sat Jan 29th 10pts @1.44 :D Essen v Eintracht Trier - Fri Jan 28th 5pts @2.25:@ Munchen 1860 v Erzgebirge Aue - Fri Jan 28th 10pts @1.73:D Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 106.7 Total staked = 25 Number of bets = 3 Winning bets = 2 Losing bets = 1 Strike rate = 1.5 Yield = 26.8 Profit/Loss = 6.7pts So this is the revised bank following the new staking plan. I will now have a look for some new selections and post back up. remembering that anything over 2.00 is 5pts, and under 10pts. Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 4 AC Milan v Bologna - Sun Jan 30th AC Milan to win @1.33 Skybet 10pts Info by qlpol

Myself I immediately jumped on AC Milan at home against Bologna. Surely the odds are not very high, but I can't see Milan slipping up here for two reasons. Reason n1 is the fact that Bologna is poor on road with a record of 1/4/5, win coming from Parma. AC Milan on the other hand has found it difficult to win all home games this season, but lately they have a good home form with wins over Lecce, Fiorentina and Udinese. There's no need to say AC Milan simply has more class than Bologna, reverse fixture ended 0-2 for the Rossoneri on september 19. Reason n2 is even more important. The Scudetto is not lost because a 5 point gap is not that difficult to overcome. Juve still has to visit San Siro, so everything is possible. Juventus visits Atalanta this weekend so pointloss is highly unexpected for them. In order to keep the pressure on Juve, AC Milan has to win and after the disaster at Livorno last weekend motivation will be there. Verdict : AC Milan Home win(10/10)
I have to agree with this one. AC Milan are certainly going to be aiming to gain some ground on the leaders, so a win here is a must. Full confidence from me. Sco
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 5 Cagliari v Fiorentina - Sun Jan 30th Cagliari to win @2.14 5pts Info by kk_ghost

I like Cagliari at home vs Fiorentina. I know it's not wise backing against a team that has just changed its tainer, but there are several reasons that induce me to think Cagliari has good chances to win. - Today Cagliari will play for Coppa Italia (Fiorentina did yesterday), but Arrigoni will field the reserves although progressing to semi - finals would probably mean getting a place in next UEFA Cup. He wants rested players for upcoming games in Serie A. - Zola will probably be available for the match while Fiorentina will miss Miccoli, its most dangerous player. He played yesterday in Coppa Italia because he's suspended for next Serie A game. - Cellino, owner of Cagliari, will surely ask his team to do more than the best to defeat Fiorentina. He's angry for the position taken by Viola club last year, about the 'mess' happened in Serie B. If you remember last year Serie B started very late and with many problems and in the first week only a couple of teams played regularly. Cellino did not like the behaviour of Fiorentina under those circumstances and that 'rust' still exists. A further proof is in the fact that last year Cagliari hosted Fiorentina in last week, when Cagliari was already promoted in Serie A (so no motivations at all)and Fiorentina still needing points to achieve the promotion avoiding play off vs Perugia. Cagliari won 3-1 because they wanted to beat Fiorentina. - Cagliari is a strong home team and so far it took 3 pts from every team of the same level (except Livorno. Fiorentina has a poor away record (1/5/4 and only 6 goals scored.. As I already wrote they'll miss Miccoli,their best striker) and has never won at Sant'Elia in recent past (they got 2 draw in Serie A, but Fiorentina was much stronger having players like Batistuta, Rui Costa etc.)
Sco
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Thanks mate your right! Here is the updated version! Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 106.7 Total staked = 25 Number of bets = 3 Winning bets = 2 Losing bets = 1 Strike rate = 66.67% Yield = 26.8 Profit/Loss = 6.7pts Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 6 Valencia V Athletico Bilboa - Sun Jan 30th Valencia to win @1.66 10pts Info by kk_ghost

Bilbao is still a poor team on the road.. Before the break they won at Zaragoza, but Zaragoza was not performing well at home (0-1 losses to Espanyol and poor Mallorca). After the break the got a draw at Numancia (the worst team in Liga). A couple of weeks ago they lost at Lanzarote (1-2) in Copa del Rey, a competition Bilbao usually cares much more than UEFA Cup itself. Bilbao played again in Copa del Rey this week, with many regulars from the 1st minute and they had a game more difficult than they expected. Today Bilbao will miss Yeste, its most talented player, and Urzaiz, another important man is doubtful. They'll also miss Murillo and Lacruz. Valencia is not playing well, that's true, but they manage to win the games. At home they have a good record (7/2/1 and only 6 goals conceded) and won last 4 games. Finally, Valencia has a one-way tradition at home vs Bilbao. They won last 6 games played vs Bilbao at Mestalla.
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) I'm interested in this thread mate - kind of feel it's what this forum should be all about. Good luck - and please keep at this for a good while. Much more worthwhile than some of the other 'system' ideas here - and I've had my fill of the 10 posts and now I'll give up type thread. I think as you go on you're going to find out how to best sift through all the true quality info that some posters submit on this forum - and my instincts are that this should work. Looking forward to more - :ok

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 92.4 Total staked = 50 Number of bets = 6 Winning bets = 3 Losing bets = 3 Strike rate = 50 Yield = -15.2% Profit/Loss = -7.6pts Two poor performances by two 'bankers' cost me. I was actually not on AC Milan myself, as its a paper trial, although was on the other two at mixed stakes and came out even. Also was on Villareal away, who won4-0 but didnt include this here! Doh Il have another browse tommorrow and see if there are any good write ups about! Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Yer it might not be a bad idea, as these too really cost! I might from now on just place 5pts on all bets, the only problem with this is that it will discourage me from bidding on outsiders at like 3.00? I might keep it the same how it is, but then revise the figures after a while, and compare to see which would have had made the most money. Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Sco, may I recommend that you keep record of who the tips came from to try to attatch some kind of weighting to your selections. I'm not saying you should name and shame, but maybe take some tips with a pinch of salt

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 6 Burton V Tamworth - Tue Feb 1st Burton to win @2.30 on Betfair 5pts Info by christianu

Also got an interest in tommorrows game: Burton vs Tamworth Burtons last 5 results: Burton 1-1 Barnet D Halifax 2-0 Burton L Burton 3-0 Hereford W Tamworth 0-2 Burton W York 1-2 Burton W Tamworths last 5 results: Woking 2-1 Tamworth L Tamworth 1-0 Accrington W Aldershot 4-3 Tamworth L Tamworth 0-2 Burton L Tamworth 1-2 Exeter L Some fantastic results for Burton, beating Hereford 3-0 who are a very good away side, holding Barnet to a draw added to a win at York and a defeat to Halfax. More importantly just 1 month prior to this game Burton won 2-0 at Tamworth. Recentley they have been very impressive and as i have, stated picked up some good results with just 1 defeat in there last 5 games. Tamworth however, have lost 4 out of there last 5 games and are stuttering after a decent spell which saw them overcome Barnet and Carlisle. Something pleasing about Tamworth is there inability to draw and they havnt drew a game in there last 17 matches so im confiddent about ruling out the draw in this one. It would be no suprise to see Tamworth lose heavily tomorrow and it wouldnt be any suprise either to see them win; so i will keep it at small stakes once again. However they are in a bad spell of form whereas Burton are in a good spell of form, possibly there best all season. Burton are keeping it tight whilst Tamworth are shipping goals regularly so im confident Burton will win this one and 5/4 looks good to me. Burton vs Tamworth 5/4 (4/10)
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 7 Club Brugge V La louvier - Tue Feb 1st Burton to win @1.33 Ladbrokes 10pts Info by christianu

clubbrugge.gifClub Brugge - La Louviere la_louviere.gif With Anderlecht eliminated, Club Brugge is the first candidate to lift the cup once again this year. Ofcourse the title is more important, but Anderlecht is not likely to come back and overtake Club Brugge. The double is within reach and Brugge is highly motivated to grab it. Against La Louviere they are ofcourse the big favourite, which is reflected in the odds. There's not much to say about Brugge this year. Once again they are dominating the competition, and only one time they were held at home(1-1 vs Genk) More interesting is La Louviere.A very strong team before the winterbreak, but during the break they lost much quality like Ishiaku(to Brugge), Klukowski(to Brugge), Murcy and others... Although they recorded a win against lowly Brussels last weekend the game was a disaster from both sides and could have easily ended the other way around. Club Brugge should overcome this La Louviere without problems. Predicion : Club Brugge 1 @ 1.26
As also mentioned in this thread laddies are offereing 1.33 on this game so I have snapped it up for the full stake of 10pts.
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 77.4 Total staked = 65 Number of bets = 8 Winning bets = 3 Losing bets = 5 Strike rate = 37.5% Yield = -34.8% Profit/Loss = -22.6pts Decided to pick this back up after a weak off. Needed to gather myself after a well and truely awful week...not just in footy but tennis and snooker too:wall Anyway we are going to get back on track NOW! I will be posting a few more selections up very soon, and after the Club Brugge result...all stakes are now fixed at 5pts a piece. Sco

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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 9 Burnley V Leeds United - Sat Feb 5th Under 2.5 @1.60 Bet365 5pts Info by josh and bluebird in exile

Last round I missed out on backing my team to beat Burnley. I won't be underestimating them again. Great price on Cardiff, who are in great form and beat the Hammers 4-1 earlier in the season. Pardew's last game in charge? Having lost first Blake and now Chaplow, I'm not entirely sure that Burnely will ever score again. I will be having a think about the best way to lay them for their game with Leeds.
The Burnley Leeds game has to be under 2.5 goals. Burnley just don't seem to conceed at home, but obviously lack firepower up front. Burnley have kept 5 clean sheets in a row at home, so I might also back "no goalscorer". It was October the last time there were over 2.5 goals in a game at Turf moor. In Leeds last 7 games, they have only averaged a goal a game, and 2 of those have been o.g's, and another 2 havce been scored by defenders. Unless they sign Rob Hulse, this has to be the banker of the weekend
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 10 Newcastle V Charlton - Sat Feb 5th Newcastle to win @1.88 Premierbet 5pts Info by gostak

Newcastle v Charlton Newcastle are not shining this year, but they still have a decent squad for much better results. Bellamy left for Celtic, and it could affect them, but they have enough players who can score and I'm sure they can handle with new situation. Anyway, with Alan Shearer in squad they could be dangerous against anyone. We all know about Charlton's home displays, and they really surprised me with their latest defeat agianst Liverpool. They even had advantage at HT, but failed to keep it and lost 1-2 at the end. Away from home we can only expect worse results of this team, and with their poor record away from London, and with poor record at Newcastle especially, I wouldn't give them big chances here. Both are still one of the most unpredictable sides in EPL, and anything could happen, but I like Newcastle here. 17th Oct 04 Charlton v Newcastle 1-1 20th Mar 04 Newcastle v Charlton 3-1 20th Dec 03 Charlton v Newcastle 0-0 15th Mar 03 Charlton v Newcastle 0-2 26th Oct 02 Newcastle v Charlton 2-1 20th Apr 02 Newcastle v Charlton 3-0 1st Dec 01 Charlton v Newcastle 1-1 11th Feb 01 Charlton v Newcastle 2-0 23rd Sep 00 Newcastle v Charlton 0-1 17th Jan 99 Charlton v Newcastle 2-2 Odds for a home win a slight better with asian handicap -1/2 at the moment of writing - Newcastle @1.88,Premierbet is the highest from reliable bookies, and that offer is worth medium bet.
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Bet 10 Scunthorpe V Kiddiminster - Sat Feb 5th Scunthorpe to win @1.53 5pts Info by WorkingForTheEnemy

The game for me is Scunthorpe - Kidderminster. Although being one of the shortest price games on the coupon I still think there is great value. Reasoning for this is similiar as to my pick in League One. Scunthorpe's home record is 10-3-2, 73% of possible home points. They're in 3rd, 3 pts off top, and in a good position to gain promotion. Kidderminster's away record is 2-1-12, only a 15% of possible away points. They've only managed 9 goals away from home and against a fairly solid defence like Scunthorpe could well have problems scoring. One of their 2 away wins came last week against Cambridge, who are rooted to the foot of the table. Using home and away records this match is similiar to such as Man Utd vs Norwich. Taking that into consideration I think that 1.5 is still great value as the stated Premiership match would be around 1.25 or so.
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Re: Bets picked by Punterslounge 2005! (Football) Ok so 2 out of 3 came in so thats a little better. Leeds under 2.5:clap wins 3 Newcastle to win:@ lost 5 Scunthorpe to win:clap wins 2.65 Bank Starting bank = 100 Current bank = 78.05 Total staked = 80 Number of bets = 11 Winning bets = 5 Losing bets = 6 Strike rate = 45.5% Yield = -27.4% Profit/Loss = -21.95pts

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