Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February

[Lars]

TULLAMORE DEW (14:25) is perhaps a horse who can’t live up to his current handicap rating and needs a fair bit of slack but I think if he replicates a similar sort of effort to last time here over 2m6f, when unseating two out, then he has a chance in a wide open race. Of course, he’ll need to jump better but had done so quite well (for him at least) previous to that and I think if he gets round in one piece, he’s better than his current rating of 137. Although never having actually won in a handicap, he ran a bold race over 2m5f at the Festival last year when plugging on well after being outpaced, shaping as in today’s 3m trip was within range. This season’s efforts haven’t been as promising on first look, having failed to complete 2/4 over the bigger obstacles and been beaten by 19 lengths or more when he had. That being said, he was still going fairly well in the Paddy Power Chase when falling and his effort in the Hennessey wasn’t disgraceful either. He was too free really in the early stages and although well-beaten, did show enough to me at least that he could make an impact over a slightly shorter trip. His first go at 3m in Handicap Company over fences shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as he was still probably feeling the effects of his previous effort in the Hennessey two weeks earlier. Although it may just seem that I’m making up excuses for this one and not providing any sort of encouragement to back him, I do think he’s worth a chance at double figure odds. Even though he’s 2lbs out of the handicap, he still has scope at this trip of improving on his rating, having not really had a fair crack of the whip at this distance. Although a tough contest to break his handicap duck in, his jumping was much better last time (apart from the blunder two out) and he’s shaped in the not too distant past that he has the ability to make a big impression in this sort of contest. It is also likely that the yard will be extra determined to get a big-race victory, especially after the recent death of Jack Gifford, and the yard’s only runner in the meantime finished second, so the yard still shape as in a bit of form. Tullamore Dew isn’t one for the upmost faith, but has the ability and the rating to run a big race here today. POWERSTATION ran a massive race on quick enough ground for him nowadays in the Irish Christmas Hurdle and returned to suitably soft conditions, he can outrun his double figure price-tag as he still shapes to have enough ability to challenge the principles here, even though he’s 12 years old. A grand servant for connections, been placed in two World Hurdles behind Big Bucks and running cracking races at the festival in handicaps prior to that, so the travel across the Irish Sea won’t phase him in any way. Although having looked like he was regressing in the early part of 2011, he returned to form in decent fashion at Navan in December, winning a handicap in these sorts of conditions quite well. He did take plenty of persuading with the whip, which might be a cause for concern in this country but he stuck to his task gamely and especially when he was conceding a lot of weight to the majority of his rivals, it was definitely a return to form. That was only off a mark of 135, but he’s subsequently shaped in two starts that he’s still a fair way better than that, once in a handicap off 6lbs higher over an inadequate trip, and then in the aforementioned Christmas Hurdle, running well for a long way on good ground, which at his age might just be a bit too quick for him. He plugged on well enough and definitely outran his mark of 141 last time out. Although he’ll have to step up slightly once again, he really enjoys these conditions and wouldn’t need to run a career best to win here, as I’m not entirely convinced that this is as strong a race as people are making out, especially with doubts about some with the testing ground. Powerstation is a high-class performer on his day and still looks to retain plenty of that ability, he’ll go well on the ground and this trip is perfect for him. The weights as they are will suit better than a handicap and he’s definitely overpriced at 14/1, as I had him at about a 9/1 chance. The likes of Featherbed Lane are priced about right (small doubts about the trip on this ground and at 13/8, it’s easy to oppose) but this testing ground definitely has the scope to cause an upset and Powerstation won’t stop trying to the line, a key attribute in this sort of contest. It is minimum bet stuff but one that should definitely run its race and go well. ALWAYS RIGHT had been on a constant curve of improvement since entering handicaps from the Hunter Chase scene but ran an absolute stinker last time in the Rowland Meyrick, his first poor performance for some time. Although no reason at the time was given for the effort, it has subsequently been found that he was suffering from a virus, and the way he dropped out pretty quickly suggested all was not well. With positive reports about his health aplenty, he is still capable of improving off this mark of 147 in ground that he handles. A multiple winner at around 3 miles on both good and soft ground, he’s more than capable of staying this 3m4f trip, having run very well in the Scottish Grand National off 5lbs lower than his current mark, seemingly staying every yard of the nigh on 4 mile distance. It was a cracking effort and showed that he was very genuine, and had the stamina to compete in these marathon events. Subject of huge support for his seasonal reappearance at Kelso , he scored in game fashion on testing ground after being hard pressed in the closing stages. It showed that he continues to handle the ground and that he might need a bit further to be at his absolute best. Although the Rowland Meyrick run was disappointing and dampens confidence a bit, especially as if he was coming into this race straight from Kelso, he’d be much shorter than he is today. As an excuse has come to light, he’s worth giving another chance to and there’s definitely scope for him to run a performance around the 160 mark at some point. Connections will be keen for him to run a big race, especially as they’ll need to decide whether Aintree is just a pipe-dream and the current price of 15/2 with the bookmakers is worthy of investment, especially as I feel there’s still more to come from him. What’s more appealing is the 10/1+ available on Betfair presently, so if that price is available then I wouldn’t discourage staking a little bit on the exchanges, although the bookmakers are likely to follow suit at some point if it stays that big on Betfair. He should run really well though if all is well with him, as I don’t have any fears regarding the ground/trip/handicap mark and feel he’s good enough to go very close. Bets 14:25 Ascot – Tullamore Dew; 2pts @ 14/1 Boylesports (bog) 14:45 Haydock – Powerstation; 1pt @ 14/1 BetVictor (bog) 15:25 Haydock – Always Right; 2pts @ 15/2 Boylesports (bog) [bigger available on Betfair]

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 4.10 Wincanton - 4pts win Theatre Guide @ 7/2 (Bet365) Posted this before the meeting was abandoned last time:

2.00 Leicester - Theatre Guide (Will post price once available) Colin Tizzard's horse may not appear a real value bet at a probable price of around 2/1, but I think he's well capable of beating the 117-rated yardstick here in Strongly Suggested - who is yet to prove he stays the trip totally. I wouldn't be ruling out Madame Allsorts either, but I feel Theatre Guide is a horse who can really go places over hurdles. He shaped with promise when running green in a 1m6f Warwick 'bumper', and confirmed this with a dour victory over 2 miles at Chepstow. He looked like he was going to be swamped on either side at one point but he really stayed on strongly between rivals to score by 2 lengths come the line. It was a decent field, with useful hurdler Magnifique Etoile (who received 10lbs) in 2nd with another nice type in Grove Pride back in 3rd. Themilanhorse - 7 lengths behind my selection - has also been running well over hurdles. Tizzard sent him over to Ireland to compete in a valuable NH flat race and Will Biddick took things up in the straight before just finding one too strong late on. The ground was perhaps just on the sharp side so it was still a fine effort. The horse is related to numerous jumping winners, and crucially, many on soft ground. His dam won races under similar conditions to today, and is brother to a point winner. He shaped as if he'd get further than 2 miles over hurdles so the 2m4f trip today in deep ground should really suit. One big issue is how he settles, however. On his hurdling debut at Aintree, he ran very fresh, and pulled Joe Tizzard's arms out for just about the first mile of the contest. He also jumped very novicey at virtually every flight - wandering around and making errors. Therefore, the fact he came into the race rounding the home turn, was promising. It was a good novice race with Barbatos beating Distime at the head of affairs. They are now rated 141 and 126 respectively. Theatre Guide was also reported to be lame behind, and having coughed after the race. Considering not much went right for him, it wasn't a bad effort. However, he still needs to settle and jump better here. However, if he does so, he'll prove a cut above in my opinion, because he appears to have a serious motor. He has been off the track for a while, since, but has been working well by all accounts and can go on to better things. The favourite won a good ground bumper but hasn't run over this trip yet over hurdles. Being out of a sprinter, and he steps up a few furlongs on deep ground also, makes him opposable to me. I think my selection has that touch of class and will hopefully be able to take this in his stride.

Obviously similar comments apply. This race has a couple of dangers, but on the whole is weaker than his Aintree debut. 2 miles will be short enough in time, and he's been entered in several 2m4f races but the weather has disrupted his progress so I think connections will be happy just to see him on the track. Very keen last time so this is likely to suit, and hopefully he can put his inexperience of last time behind him. Had a little while off the track since being sore so has to prove his fitness, but needs to win this to justify his entry in the Neptune.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 2.25 Ascot - 2pts win Cappa Bleu @ 8/1 (Boyles) Interesting 3 mile handicap chase but I am quite keen on the chances of Evan Williams' classy sort. Has only run 7 times under rules so hasn't had too much racing as a 10-year-old, and he appears as good as ever recently, with both runs this season proving to be very good efforts. Over eighteen months off the track were no problem for him as he narrowly held on to win a chase at Haydock in November from Tamarinbleu, who has won since, so that effort looks strong, and suggests that there is still some scope to win off his amended higher mark. Went to the Welsh national last time and put in a very encouraging effort. In the end, the trip on the heavy ground probably was just a little too testing. He travelled and jumped well, though, giving plenty of weight to the first two, and finished in 3rd without too many questions asked by his pilot. The first two dominated the race and he didn't have the hardest race out of those in the field. Suggested that he was still at the top of his game and a return to the bare three miles would suit him down to the ground. There appears some scope off his current mark of 147, and I'm not sure this race will be enough of a test for a couple of those towards the head of the market. Big run on the cards.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 3.35 Ascot - 2pts win Crack Away Jack @ 9/1 (Hills) This horse is obviously high class, but didn't progress as hoped over fences for Emma Lavelle and it was a similar story since joining Paul Nicholls last time in November. He was fourth in the champion hurdle back in 2009 and won a handicap quite readily off just 2lbs lower than his mark today, so looks capable of going well if Nicholls has him back in good order. It looked that way when well-backed on his first run for the yard over fences but once more his jumping let him down. He did still run with promise, though, and the return to hurdles looks sure to suit. He's had another break, which is no issue, as he goes well fresh, and he's run well over this c&d before. Paul Nicholls has a 21% strike rate here and has a real live chance in this fiercely competitive race.

[fintron]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 1.15 Ascot - Keys - bumped into a smart one in Cinders And Ashes last time but that was a very good hurdles debut nevertheless. Expected to impove upon that effort, third winning yesterday helps boost the form. 1.50 Ascot - Silviniaco Conti - had Bobs worth behind last time in the Feltham, won by Grands Crus, and reopposes on identical terms today. That rival is favourite and this one looks the better price of the pair. 3.20 Haydock - Mohayer - travelled really well in soft ground at Ffos Las last time and seems to be improving when upped in trip. Won over 3m1f last time, has a bit further to contend with here and that could continue his improvement under Jonjo O'Neill.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 3.20 Haydock - 2pts win Always Right @ 9/1 (PP) If you can forgive this one's most recent run, when pulled up at Wetherby, then he must have a huge chance here. Was reported to have an allergy after that run, and it certainly seemed out of character considering he'd previously never been out of the frame under rules. There was also just 22 days between his two most recent runs, so recovery was possibly an issue, but has been given a breather, and should go very well if resuming the upward curve. Looked a true stayer when 3rd in the Scottish National last year, which was a top effort off 142 considering his relative lack of experience over fences. A mistake 2 out possibly cost him the race, and he looked as good as ever when returning this season. Showed his stamina to good use when forging on close home at Kelso over a trip shorter than 3 miles, and would relish the extra yardage. The fact he won that off 140 after an absence gives him a huge shout off 147 now fit and getting a more suitable test. John Wade is 2-8 with horses at Haydock and assuming he's over whatever caused him to flop at Wetherby, he should go well with soft ground no problem.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 3.10 Wincanton - 3pts win Easter Meteor @ 4/1 (Hills) Emma Lavelle's 6-y-o goes handicapping over fences off a mark of 129 and I feel that could be fair on what we've seen to date over the larger obstacles. He's taken to them well, having run well over hurdles in his short career to date. Failed to win over hurdles, but was placed on his two most recent runs over them, and shaped as if going chasing would be the best thing for the horse. He put in a fine round of jumping on his chasing debut at Exeter to score by a comfortable 11l from a subsequent winner, but found giving 7lbs to a 150-rated hurdler too much to deal with last time when going down by 16l to Sanctuaire. This will obviously suit much better and cut in the ground suits. The yard are in good form and have a pretty good record of 9-42 at Wincanton. Big run looks likely.

[Tull]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win Cappa Bleu @ 8/1 (Boyles) Interesting 3 mile handicap chase but I am quite keen on the chances of Evan Williams' classy sort. Has only run 7 times under rules so hasn't had too much racing as a 10-year-old, and he appears as good as ever recently, with both runs this season proving to be very good efforts. Over eighteen months off the track were no problem for him as he narrowly held on to win a chase at Haydock in November from Tamarinbleu, who has won since, so that effort looks strong, and suggests that there is still some scope to win off his amended higher mark. Went to the Welsh national last time and put in a very encouraging effort. In the end, the trip on the heavy ground probably was just a little too testing. He travelled and jumped well, though, giving plenty of weight to the first two, and finished in 3rd without too many questions asked by his pilot. The first two dominated the race and he didn't have the hardest race out of those in the field. Suggested that he was still at the top of his game and a return to the bare three miles would suit him down to the ground. There appears some scope off his current mark of 147, and I'm not sure this race will be enough of a test for a couple of those towards the head of the market. Big run on the cards.

Hope you're right pal, really keen on his chances today, if he jumps well then he must have a good chance

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 2:25 Ascot: Viking Blond 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Viking Blond went off the favourite for the Welsh Grand National, however the heavy good seemed to take its toll there. Previously Viking Blond had been running well. This season he beat Alfie Spinner at Chepstow and then ran a couple of decent races behind Join Together and Grand Crus (without ever getting close). A sounder surface and a drop back in trip look to be in Viking Blond's favour and although out of the handicap he looks likely to give a good account and worth giving another chance. 3:20 Haydock: Mohayer 1pt e/w 20/1 Totesport (1/4 1234) Mohayer is ten, yet is lightly raced over the larger obstacles. This grey gelding comes in to the race seeking a hat trick after comfortable victories at Market Rasen and Ffos Las. Each time he has been crept round by Richie McLernon only just doing enough to win. He has also gone off at big prices which may indicate he is surprising his connections a little, maybe he has performed better on the track than at home, which has why he is only being stepped up in class now. This Grade 3 represents several rungs up the ladder which is a slight concern, however there is a decent chance of more to come from Mohayer. He gets in off a light weight and Mohayer seems to have got getter the further he goes. He will handle the likely heavy going and Mohayer looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. 3:35 Ascot: Dunraven Storm 1pt e/w 16/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1234) Dunraven Storm is lightly raced and could still be progressing. His comeback run at Taunton a month ago should have been a decent pipe opener, he ran quite fresh and then was slightly hampered, however he will hopefully come on for that. Dunraven Storm was hiked up the weights after running second to Cue Card at Cheltenham and at one point was rated 150. He is now ten pounds lower and that with his course form makes him of interest today. Dunraven Storms defeat of Recession Proof here reads well in light of that one's subsequent efforts. The extra distance may also bring about some improvement, Dunraven Storm is related to National winner Red Marauder and is by the same sire as Denman. Prices available at time of original post.....

[punterpete]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 2.00 Wincanton Water Garden Win @ 11/2 Stan James Has improved since the fitting of cheek pieces winning two handicap novice hurdles in December. The first was over todays course and distance and he then was stepped up to 3 miles for another win at Ascot. Not disgraced last time out at Warwick when fourth 6 lenghts behind Thehillofusineach over 3M 1F. The drop back in trip should suit today and he will encounter similar conditions to his C&D win. 2.10 Haydock Ambion Wood win @ 6/1 Bet365 Connections seem to hold this one in high regard so they obviously think he wull han dle the step up in trip. Very consistent in all starts so far in bumpers and hurdles never being out of the top two. Looked good last time out when finishing half a length behind Cotton Mill at Warwick and there should be more improvement to come.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 1.50 Ascot - 4pts win Bobs Worth @ 2/1 (Bet365) The price has got to big on this one now, and I fancy him to reverse Kempton form with Silviniaco Conti. The market believes this is just about a two horse race and even though this track might still not be totally ideal for Henderson's charge, he should enjoy the test here moreso than he did around Kempton. He didn't jump as fluently as he can on that occasion, and he should put in a better performance today. Yard have a 30% strike rate here and I hope the market is wrong. I really like this horse and think he has a decent chance back at Cheltenham next month.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 3.20 HAydock 3m 4f 110yrds Betfred Grand National trial Handicap Chase (grade 3) (5yo plus) The key stats we are looking at here in the last 14 runnings are: 13/14 - SP 14/1 or under 14/14 - Horses have had 10 or more runs 14/14 - Horses have had 2 or more wins Going further, the age range appears to be 7-9yo with 11 out of 14 coming from this range. Weight shows that with 9 out of 14 weighing less than 10st 11lb that this could be quite grueling but some decent stayers have carried big weights to victory also. The next set of stats will start cutting the field down: 13/14 - Ran LTO between Nov - Feb 12/14 - Wins / Runs ratio higher than 25% 12/14 - Placed or better LTO Remove Mon Mome, Mohayer, Some tasrget, Fredo, Major malarkey, Ballyfitz, Miko de beauchene, Always right, Sona Sasta, King fontaine & the favs stat is 1 from 14, a poor record. Leaves the following Neptune Collonges 11yo, carries 11st 12lb 2nd LTO - may be too soft for this one Le Beau Bai - 9yo, 10st 7lb, Giles Cross - 10yo, 10st 5lb, just failed in the Welsh national, will front run here Rey Nacardo - 7to, 10st, interseting off such a low weight Giles Cross and Rey Nacardo take my fancy here. Le Beau Bai will be taking its chance come National day, and has ran in this the last 2 years finishing 3rd off 11st 2lb and 11st with claimers on board claiming 3lb and 7lb. Similar weight today with 10st 7lb but Giles Cross gets a 7lb pull for Chepstow and will be hard to catch round here. Giles cross may start favourite but that stat has to change at some poiint!! although the irish horse is vying for favouritism at the moment Bets Rey Nacardo 10/1 0.5pts win >Bet365 Giles Cross 11/2 0.5pts win >Bet365

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February been struggling to pull anything together recently possibly due to pre cheltenham syndrome i suffer from, anyhow my bets apart from the trend race i have done as based purely on ratings today with the horse rated highest in the races i wanted to cover today funnily enough, the 1st winner would have qualified but Keys was the worry for me Ascot 1.50 Silviniaco conti 5/4 (has bobs worth to beat i thinkn here, aqs last time they were 2nd and 3rd behind Grand Crus and can confirm those placings again today) 2.25 The Minack 5/1 (certainly think this one will be going to Cheltenham in one of the 3m chases and has a decent Strikerate plus a CD winner) 3.00 Riverside theatre 6/4 (possibly the most tlaked about horse on todays card. 2nd in the King George last year and winner of this race 12 months ago should go close again in this field. 4.10 Hazy tom 6/4 (smart bumper and hurdle winner, decent effort in G2 here last time out behind Molotof) Haydock 2.10 Brindisi Breeze 4/1 (trip suits this one and still on the upgrade, likes the ground) 10 x 0.05pts win trebles 1 x 0.1pt win accy

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February

CAPTAIN SUNSHINE 4.10 Ascot. 1 point win. Trip and ground suits and open to show more improvement. Is expected to progress into a decent horse, so looks to have every chance of a win today. Pace of the race looks suitable, if they race as expected. 3/1 Ladbrokes BOG