Banner Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey guys Wondering of what you think of this system and how you think i can improve and so on. Iv paper traded it for a few days and its worked well (Stats Below) I know one day dosnt mean alot but when you see some of the loses you may agree it could be profitable. I will only be paper trading so I can see if it could be profitable then maybe test it out for real. How this system will work Its simple all that will happen is I will back the home favourites up to the odds of 1.85 generally and stake enough on them to make £10 Profit. I was thinking on only betting on Home favourites between the odds of 1.4-1.85, rather than any odds up to 1.85 because in order to win £10 on the Real Madrid V Levante game the other day I would of had to put £100 on Real Madrid to win, But then i thought they have to be these odds for a reason because they have a very high chance of winning (which they did). Any Improvements? If you have any suggestions please suggest them or any constructive criticism let me know! Also if you have any statistics that could help that would be appreciated. The Results! Total Bets: 30 Bets Won: 23 Bets Lost: 7 Total Profit: £111.91 Strike Rate:77% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Those are the stats iv got from the last 3 days of betting [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215] [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Word of caution. These sides are only priced up as short priced favourites because the bookies and their odds compilers say they are favourites. When in many cases the true odds should be higher, as the odds are often reduced in expectation of the weight of public betting. If you're just betting on all short priced favourites eventually you will come unstuck and I doubt whether the strategy would make a profit in the long term. From experience looking at the odds before hand and assuming that because the bookmaker tells me team A has a 70% + chance of winning, and assuming that the team in question is "very likely to win" is proper mug punter stuff :ok Meant in the nicest sense possible, but you need to take into account what the true odds should be, and not just take the bookies prices as fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Yer I understand what your saying mate! Maybe I should just concentrate on the Main leagues, EG. Prem, Ligue1, Erdivise, Liga BBVA, Serie A Etc... And Maybe Npower Champ I think I will continue with what im doing then change it accordingly, depending on what loses i get in what leagues, So far Brazilian leagues have been good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Many punters have learned the hard way backing short priced favourites because the bookmaker states they are myself included so I would agree caution is needed here. If it really was that easy there would be no bookmakers. I'm afraid you need to work out a teams chance of winning and if the bookmaker offers bigger odds on that team you should take it. Betting blind is a quick way to the poor house. Sorry to be negative to your idea but it might be worth paper trading for a while longer preferably till the end of the season.Good Luck whatever you decide.:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites I find it rather dangerous to bet on games of 1.09 You just risk too much according to me. If i were you, I would be more selective on your games. That are really a lot of games you've betted on. Especially for only 3 days. At the moment it's going perfectly fine, but one bad run and you could get crippled (that's my opinion ;)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Yer I understand what your saying mate! Maybe I should just concentrate on the Main leagues, EG. Prem, Ligue1, Erdivise, Liga BBVA, Serie A Etc... And Maybe Npower Champ I think I will continue with what im doing then change it accordingly, depending on what loses i get in what leagues, So far Brazilian leagues have been good! I'd leave the Championship tbh mate :ok It's a hard league to back short priced favourites in. Probably just an idea to look back at previous years across a number of league's and see which have the highest percentage of winners, at what odds, and work from there :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Thanks for the ideas guys! Im still going to continue doing this for a few weeks atleast! Im only paper trading!!! [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215]AL Ramtha v Al Jalil Al Ramtha Just won there game so theres another winner! [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Try back-testing, using data from football-data.co.uk...... that's how I came up with the simple strategy on my "Homes" thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites I couldnt find where to look for previous data on that website mate? Where abouts do i have to go? Thanks :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Hi Banner. You can find it here http://football-data.co.uk/data.php It is located under Odds & results on the right. It isn't the easiest website to navigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Ok thanks guys and tonights results! 3 wins and 1 Loss The loss was only £12.50 Leaving us with £30 from the other 3 games which means £17.50 profit tonight! I will upload my table of results after tomorrow games, which so far i have found just the 2, [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 215]Inter v Bologna and [TABLE=width: 215] [TR] [TD=width: 215]Heerenveen v Breda [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites [TABLE=width: 280] [TR] [TD]Inter v Bologna[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heerenveen v Breda[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Melbourne Heart v Gold Coast United[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Albirex Niigata v Tanjong Pagar Utd[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dukla Prague v Zizkov[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Those are the fixtures i have down for today :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Hello, Banner, :welcome to forum! Nice to see successfull start of your system, and your enthusiasm to keep it going! :ok Though, if you have the intention to use this thread for keeping records, may I ask you, please, to have a look at Rules for posting betting systems. There are several simple rules that we set in order to keep the forum tidy and make it easy for readers to get the grasp of the system. :ok I'd say there are two things you need to pay attention at. First, we don't like aftereventing, which means that you should start from zero here, and post all your selections before kick-off. These past selections were useful to present your system, but should not be included in profit / loss shown in this thread. Second, just listing selections, as you did in your last post, is not enough: you must state odds and stake, and possibly bookmaker. Avoid editing of posts that contain selections, as it may question their integrity - if you made a mistake, just make a new post, don't edit the old one. Good luck with your system! :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Banner, I'm going to be blunt here. Stop this idea while you are still ahead. As everyone above pointed out, you will lose if you continue. Betting on all odds below 1.85 is not a system. Go to the website suggested and work on a system. Do some backtesting on that data and then start a system on this wonderful forum. All the best! S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Ignore the naysayers Banner. After all this is a fun, try-out Forum. I have found that generally speaking all my systems are roughly break even. If I could find a firmly losing system I would turn it into a winner by laying. I look forward to your system continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Thanks for the advice guys but I will continue to do this system as it continues to be profitable! And sorry Froment ill try to keep by the rules from now on! And Melbourne Heart are currently 1-0 up and if they win that will be another £10 profit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites I'm going to do you a favour. I ran the numbers on the Premier League for the last 5 seasons for odds between 1.10-1.85. There are 477 selections. The strike rate was 61.4% while the yield was 0.8%. So basically, if you placed 1 pound on all 477 selections, then after 5 years you would end up with 481. Please note that the above stats ignores the first and last 5-6 games of each season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Hi Banner Do you have any selection proces? What bookie do you use? Only 14 selctions on a Sunday I wood have thought that there would be more selections/favorites. I am counting 23 selections on the 17th on Bet365's site (including cups, friendlies everything) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Is there a mod that could close this thread so I could restart it if possible? Many Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Back the home Favourites Closed, as per your request. :ok Good luck with the new start! :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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