PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th *Scott Piercy - 2 Points e/w @ 66/1 Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds, 6 places* Has had an eye-catching start to 2012, began the year with 12th place in Hyundai Tournament of Champions ($130,000), followed by a 23rd place in the Sony Open in Hawaii ($48,000). Last weekend in the Farmers Insurance Open he again caught my attention with a 13th place finish picking up just less than $100,000, he is playing great golf and would have been in the Top 10 last weekend only for a couple of errors which cost him in the final round. Last year he has his first tour success in the Reno Tahoe Open, and he is another player with a lot of ability and i fancy him to go close this weekend. *Harrison Frazar - 2 Points e/w @ 100/1 Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds, 6 places* Another player that is too big a price to pass up. Has already picked up over $600,000 in 2012, courtesy of a 5th place finish in Hyundai Tournament of Champions , scoring 15 under, followed by a 2nd place finish in the Sony Open with a score of 11 under. He did not really figure last weekend and was cut after Round 3 but he is another player that had his first tour win last year, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic, picking up over $1,000,000 dollars. He has started this year on fire, and the market doesn't seem to have picked up on that, he should be a 50/1 shot at most, the 100/1 is good value in my eyes.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th GL this week Aidy. And ack! After doing a bit more research this week I'm really not liking the look of this Tournament. I was desperately hoping that there'd be a certain type of player whose strength in a particular area was going to give them a larger than normal advantage over the field, and initially I thought I had found that in Bryce Molder, but a quick glance at some of the most recent winners including Kenny Perry and JB Holmes (twice) has really put a dampener on why I liked Molder. This course also doesn't rank as being the most difficult in any category and doesn't seem to favour any single type of player. Picking players who have flashed good form and threatened to contend seems about as good a strategy as any :\ **Scott Piercy @ 65 Betfair (Primary Reason for Selection: Course Form)** Agree with Aidy in that he has started the year well and has threatened to contend, without ever really contending. He held the 54 hole lead of this event last year, has been in the Top 10 in his last 2 participations and has been double digits under par everytime he's played this event. **YE Yang @ 75 Betfair (Primary Reason for Selection: Course Form)** Yang has played here twice before, both times shooting -14 for the tournament for finishes of 8th and 3rd respectively. Is an all-round experienced, classy golfer who does everything above average. **Bryce Molder @ 95 Betfair (Primary Reason for Selection: ????)** I really liked what I saw in Molder for this course, until I realized that there's a good chance it's not even going to be significant, so I'm not even going to dig up my notes. What I can still hold onto though is that he finished last year strongly, with a Win, 4 further Top 10's and an 11th in his final 11 events. For the most part, he's seemed to have carried that form over, with a 7th in the ToC (though only a very small field) and an unassuming 13th last week, despite never really having a presence on the leaderboard. Would normally be on JB Holmes given his record here, but he's only 1 tournament back from a long lay-off caused by brain surgery, so think it's still too soon for him. Kevin Na also has three top 5's here, but the odds aren't quite what I'd have liked them to be. I might take a couple more players at long odds later, but in general, significantly reduced stakes across the board and no real feel for this week. I've also stopped attaching stakes as my method is clearly flawed, so I'll have to put in place a plan to rectify that first. Molder easily the best result for the week though.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th So still annoyed by the Stanley events of last week, I went to try and do some more study into this week to try and find an angle I liked as much as last week's. Alas it was never to be. However, what I did find is that since 2000: 9/12 winners had not missed a cut prior to their victory 10/12 winners had played at least 2 events prior to their victory 7/12 winners had a Top 10 prior to their victory (With a further 3 winners having a best placed finish of 12th, 15th and 17th). 9/12 had previous Top 10's in the event (4 were repeat winners) Unfortunately I don't have the resourcefulness of Hornet so I couldn't really use that to eliminate players and come up with a list, but I thought it was somewhat interesting in that basically you are looking for players who have started the year well (worst finish for the season from a winner was 27th). So I've added: Brendon De Jonge @ 85 Betfair Brendon De Jonge 1st Round Leader @ 81 Sportingbet 3rd in birdies this year. Has rounds of 62,64 and 65 for the year and has a Top 10, as well as a 12th and 27th. Meets 3/4 indicators. Jeff Maggert @ 240 Betfair Contended in the Sony Open before floundering a bit in the last round and finishing 13th. Was 5th at Humana. Has lots of experience in this event, with a best finish of 3rd (15 participations). Ranks 5th this year in strokes gained putting -- if he can carry that form into the week he is going to be well served. Meets all 4 indicators. I should also give a shout out to Aidy's pick of Harrison Frazar. 5th and 2nd this year, previous best finish of 3rd in the Phoenix Open. Meets 3/4 indicators. And also for small stakes: Troy Matteson @ 770 Betfair Can pop out of nowhere and these odds looked too big. He's been trading at 300s this year prior to this event. Cameron Tringale @ 120 Betfair 4th last week. A player I'm high on and always back as I like his potential to surprise with a big odds win. Kevin Chappell @ 400 See Above. Also, 3rd in the US Open last year. For the record, loving the value in Maggert this weekend. If he gets up I might just forget about last week.

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th What the hell has happened to Stewart Cink's game? He is on course for the worst round of golf i have ever seen by a top player. Currently +12 through 13 holes. 3 double bogeys, 6 bogeys and 4 Par's... Shocking golf, would give it a better shot myself i reckon.

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th I think i will get physically sick if Frazar doesnt get a place this weekend after his good first two rounds..

[Striker]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th Be staggering comeback if Kyle Wins tonight!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th The only thing I can think of that would be more infuriating than last week is if Stanley actually wins this week. I still had designs on backing him in the Transitions or Zurich, but I think after today that is going to absolutely go to pieces too. This is going to completely **** my year

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th Feel for you Crouchy... Im in a rut myself, keep finding golfers that finish between 6th and 20th, its really annoying... Stick with it mate, the criteria is good... As a matter of interest, what could you have layed Levin at on Betfair ????????

[Striker]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th 1.17!

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th Christ.. 100 quid lay, only a liability of 17. I know its great in hindsight, but we see this type of thing week in week out in golf.. Stanley was 1.01 going onto the 18th last week

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th I would just like to say **** my life to hell. Now that Stanley has won and will be 25s max for every future event I can't see any way I'll have a shot of winning what he was worth last week unless I drastically change my staking plan. Any other golfer and i wouldnt give a shit - but i was so big on Stanley coming into the year... So big. Some how I've managed to be right with my instincts and get ****** over monumentally. I think that takes a special kind of incompetence.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th

Christ.. 100 quid lay' date=' only a liability of 17. I know its great in hindsight, but we see this type of thing week in week out in golf.. Stanley was 1.01 going onto the 18th last week[/quote'] Put Levin down as a massive choker. He had a huge lead last year and lost to I think Laird. Was trading at like 2.75 after 36 holes of that event.

[Aidymac]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th My heart is actually acheing for you Crouch, it actually hurts, so i can't imagine how you feel... Devastating when something like that happens, the last person i thought would win this week was Kyle Stanley after throwing it away last week. I thought he would be still thinking about the previous week this week... Truth be told if Levin even played average he should have won, a complete choker as you say. May i also mention John Huh and Harris English, you mentioned Huh Crouch, he is a player to watch at huge prices, as is Harris English.

[Striker]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th I feel the pain crouch But make no mistake Kyle Stanley is a world class player now

[Crouch Potato]

Re: PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open: Feb 2nd - Feb 5th

My heart is actually acheing for you Crouch' date=' it actually hurts, so i can't imagine how you feel... Devastating when something like that happens, the last person i thought would win this week was Kyle Stanley after throwing it away last week. I thought he would be still thinking about the previous week this week... Truth be told if Levin even played average he should have won, a complete choker as you say. May i also mention John Huh and Harris English, you mentioned Huh Crouch, he is a player to watch at huge prices, as is Harris English.[/quote'] Cheers mate. I've seen and experienced most things before, but this is something entirely new altogether. Even the loss last week wasn't so bad when I thought there was another chance to cash in in the future, but now, that's gone too. The only thing more frustrating than being able to identify something and not cash in on it is not cashing in the way I didn't last week. Agreed about Huh. Has been well in contention twice now but lacks some composure with his tee and iron shots in the final round. +3 in the first 4 holes of the Farmer's insurance last week and +4 in the final stretch today. The hard part is going to be cashing in on it. T7 in driving accuracy, 1st in driving accuracy last week and T3 in driving accuracy this week. I'm giving up taking the same players every week because I just can't make it work, but I'll be keeping a every keen eye for when Huh hits an event where driving accuracy is going to be at a premium. Thanks mate. And there's absolutely no mistake about it. It's really what makes it so frustrating. I don't think I'll ever see Kyle Stanley over 30's again, bar for the majors and WGC events (I'd actually gone through the entire schedule this year, marking which courses I thought Stanley would have the biggest advantage on, and what sized stakes above normal I'd want to lay down in each event). And I just know that I'll probably never be able to back him again. All objectivity on him has gone, and given the odds he'll be in future, I don't think I could ever have the objectivity. Currently 55's for the Masters, which I simply can't see him winning (this year), due to the history and what it takes to win one. I'd entertain backing him at the US Open, where his distance will really give him an advantage, but I suspect he'll be far too short. Interestingly, I tried to get a quote for him to win the money list this year, and never got a quote. Care to bet he'll win that too!? Onto next week, where Stanley isn't playing, so at least it can't get worse... right?