blackcrow Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Early lines: New England -3 vs NY Giants. Total is 55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Total seems very high... [sorry for the delay here guys, I can't seem to work out the 'stick' function! ] :$ Success!!...Top blank option = close/open...bottom blank option = stick/unstick... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 NE/NYG Over 55 Agree that this total is high but I can't see either defense holding down the other. Both teams played in Week 8, the game finished 24-20 after a scoreless 1st half. The Giants were missing Nicks and Bradshaw. The Giants kind of held the Pats down though the Pats made plenty of mistakes despite racking up 460 yds. To me this game will go over especially if one team can get up by two scores. The execution and the skill on both offenses makes them tough to stop. The Past don't really have an answer for Nicks, Cruz and Manningham, they've really struggled when teams have spread them out like the Steelers and Bills did earlier this season. The Giants defense has played well but plays were there to be made for Atlanta and the Packers but they just couldn't execute. The 49ers were in difficult position with only 2 healthy WRs. The Pats defense is improved but again they let Flacco & co move the ball quite easily on them after the 1st quarter. Both these teams are very good in the red zone, so I don't see them squandering many opportunities. These two QBs never get to play in domes so this will be nice change from Foxboro and Giants Stadium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yanceypurcell Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Hello All: My friend and I are using a grey box system that includes a lot of the usual suspects: rushing yardage, passing yardage, etc. We like the 58 points and under bet which was -154. Our system shows the under at less than that, but we like to play it safe. We also like a hedge were you take the Pats to win at -138 and then take the Giants to win with a margin of between 1 and 6 points at 15/4 or 13/20. Say... bet 1000 dollars or pounds on the Pats to win with no spread and bet 250 on the second bet. Best Wishes, Yancey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yanceypurcell Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 disregard the 13/20 for the last bet, 13/20 is the fractional odds for the 58 points and under bet. But you figured that out, anyway. yancey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Going the other way Rob... under 53.5 (1.92 @ Sportsbet) Really do think it's a high line...I know I've gone on lately about a healthy NYG D, but it does come into play. NE have really faced very limitted D's all year...23 points, just 330 yards last week... 27 points, 400 yards v. a half decent Miami (but poorous pass D)...took apart the Jets twice, but both games went under this total...as did Miami and Balt for that matter.W We know the Giants' MO here...they will run, run, tick, tock...they've made no secret that keeping Brady off the field for long periods is a key to the game...I mean, clearly everyone else who has played them says the same thing! :lol, but this is one team who can do it with a combination of runs and 3rd down passing...and play the defense they need when he is on the field anyway. And, despite all the numbers suggerting the NE D is under the pump, they've allowed more than 25 points just twice all year!!! ...really once even, as the Steelers ended with a very late safety... ...and they've given up just 18.8 in their last 10. Two under-rated D's and 1, maybe even 2 offenses who I suspect will be run first and run often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Yes but remember the Giants have the worst rush offense in the NFL. They will run to keep the Pats honest but they will try to get in 3 WR sets as much as possible IMO. Note that when the Pats went to their 2 minute offense the Giants couldn't stop them. The Giants have the 25th ranked 2 minute defense, the Pats have always excelled at that. The only worry I have is Gronkowski's ankle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 I wont be playing the game as I am sitting with a ticket on the Giants at 66/1 from early December, however every indicator I know to look at suggests the Giants will win this game so it is almost a guarantee that the Pats will lift the Lombardi trophy when all is said and done!!!! :lol On the total I am with Taza, I think the game goes under, the stats on the Giants run game are every misleading as they only got both backs healthy late in the year (I believe Bradshaw missed the first meeting between the teams) and while I despise Jacobs as a running back it has been a lot better in the last few weeks than the numbers on paper say, it has definitely been effective, the two teams played out a scoreless first half when they met earlier in the year and as Taza says the defenses in this game are underrated, all the talk is of the Giants pass rush which should be effective at moving Brady off his spot on a fast track in Indy and if Wilfork repeats his performance against Baltimore then Eli will not have time to expose the glaring weakness of the Pats secondary which will naturally lead to a lot of punts and less scoring thats my tuppence worth for what its worth!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Not an expert on American football by a long way, have been following more and more the last few years, took New York @ 18's (wish I'd got dan's 66's), Nicks has gone in 1st for a Td twice out his last 3 games at decent prices too, backed him to go in 1st again. Hakeem Nicks 1st Td scorer 15/2 @ Paddy Power (refunded if a Td is scored in the last 2 minutes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Closest Superbowl to call for me i can remember so just looking for a few value prop bets 11/8 PP there are 2 or more fumbles in the game, The way the Giants attack the ball they could easily force 2 fumbles on any team by themselves so anything the pats do is a bonus, that will do for me. Looking at the MVP odds was tempted to take 13/2 for a wide receiver to be MVP as i can see Welker having a big game but Giants will use many receivers so IMO 25/1+ on Welker to have a big game and win MVP is worth a bet. The Giants should receive the ball first and 9/2 Giants field goal being first score is not bad, New England defence excellent in Red zone and hopefully they will force the kick if Giants have a good first series.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ec1888 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Im going with the over here, www.888sports.com go 10/11 on over 53 which is the best priced Im very confident this will happen. Giants have the eighth-ranked offense against the Patriots’ 31st-ranked defense. The Patriots have the second-ranked offense against the Giants’ 27th-ranked defense.we're talking two of the top quarterbacks in the league leading two of the top passing attacks in the league on the fast-track of a domed stadium. reckon it'll be a shootout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 hi all, im not a big follower of nfl but my bookie has given me a free 20 pound bet on the superbowl but could anyone give me a value bet to stick it on because sticking 20 on either new england or new york wont get me much, any suggestions please??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 New England -9.5 @ 3.60 centrebet Two very similar sides and not much between them. They have excellent QBs with very good sets of WRs, while the RBs are good without being explosive (maybe the Giants edge this). On defence, they have very good pass rushes, but can be thrown upon, while the run defence is good. So it will come down to which QB can make the plays. Actually think the main difference between the two sides is at tight end. This season we have seen several TEs step up and make themselves known, as well as winning the games for their teams. Believe the Patriots, with Gronkowski and Hernandez, have a significant edge here over Ballard, and especially defending them, as the Giants did allow Davis to gain 112 yards and 2 TDs in the win over SF, while Finley was wide open quite a bit and should have had more than the 43 yards he got on 4 receptions, if he did not drop some catchable passes. Note, favourites are 26-16-3 against the spread in the SBs. Playoff record: 5-8 (-0.19) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 hi all' date=' im not a big follower of nfl but my bookie has given me a free 20 pound bet on the superbowl but could anyone give me a value bet to stick it on because sticking 20 on either new england or new york wont get me much, any suggestions please???[/quote'] Which bookie is it BR? So we could have a look see what markets they offer :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bawnmore_reds Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Which bookie is it BR? So we could have a look see what markets they offer :ok bit late sam but if you do a 20 pound bet on chelsea v united game you get a free 20 bet on the superbowl with titanbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Going to spec the MVP market for a bit of interest as nothing really stands out in the main betting markets. Jason Pierre-Paul MVP @ 61 Sportingbet On his day can really dominate a game. Not sure it's going to be as high scoring as everyone expects and even if it does a few big plays on D may help to catch the eye. 70 odds points in the Giants trip to Dallas but reckon he would have been MVP of that game if there were such a thing. Brady is probably going to have some good drives so a few sacks and maybe even a forced fumble. Obviously a long shot but I can see a path to it. Osi Umenyiora MVP @ 151 Sportsbet Same reasoning as above. And the one I think is really good value: Deion Branch MVP @ 130 Betfair Branch was MVP in one of their previous Super Bowl visits and I like the odds on this one. Gronkowski I think is going to be limited by his ankle so may well be used to attract key defenders and create mismatches in other places on the field, which is where a player like Branch would benefit. He's only fourth in line after Welker and the TEs, but with Hernandez and Gronkowski so pivotal I can see Branch seeing some one on one coverage and maybe making a big play, and a long TD reception will obviously help him stand out. Brady and Manning the obvious candidates as QBs always are, but happy to just spec those players. Again, I think the Branch odds are overs, even if still unlikely at true odds, which I'd have thought would be more like $34-$41. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Going to spec the MVP market for a bit of interest as nothing really stands out in the main betting markets. Jason Pierre-Paul MVP @ 61 Sportingbet On his day can really dominate a game. Not sure it's going to be as high scoring as everyone expects and even if it does a few big plays on D may help to catch the eye. 70 odds points in the Giants trip to Dallas but reckon he would have been MVP of that game if there were such a thing. Brady is probably going to have some good drives so a few sacks and maybe even a forced fumble. Obviously a long shot but I can see a path to it. Was looking at this bet myself Crouch Potato and will kick myself if it goes in,think he will have a great game and will need to have a big influence on the game for Giants to win but in the history of Superbowl MVPs only 2 DE have won MVP in 42 Superbowls but as you say at such a big price he is worth the bet,wont be surprised if he does go against the stats and wins MVP ,sod it think i will have a little saver bet on him myself.lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Had a side bet on Welker @ 8.50 centrebet to be first TD scorer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Going the other way Rob... under 53.5 (1.92 @ Sportsbet) Really do think it's a high line...I know I've gone on lately about a healthy NYG D, but it does come into play. NE have really faced very limitted D's all year...23 points, just 330 yards last week... 27 points, 400 yards v. a half decent Miami (but poorous pass D)...took apart the Jets twice, but both games went under this total...as did Miami and Balt for that matter.W We know the Giants' MO here...they will run, run, tick, tock...they've made no secret that keeping Brady off the field for long periods is a key to the game...I mean, clearly everyone else who has played them says the same thing! :lol, but this is one team who can do it with a combination of runs and 3rd down passing...and play the defense they need when he is on the field anyway. And, despite all the numbers suggerting the NE D is under the pump, they've allowed more than 25 points just twice all year!!! ...really once even, as the Steelers ended with a very late safety... ...and they've given up just 18.8 in their last 10. Two under-rated D's and 1, maybe even 2 offenses who I suspect will be run first and run often. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 New England -9.5 @ 3.60 centrebet Two very similar sides and not much between them. They have excellent QBs with very good sets of WRs, while the RBs are good without being explosive (maybe the Giants edge this). On defence, they have very good pass rushes, but can be thrown upon, while the run defence is good. So it will come down to which QB can make the plays. Actually think the main difference between the two sides is at tight end. This season we have seen several TEs step up and make themselves known, as well as winning the games for their teams. Believe the Patriots, with Gronkowski and Hernandez, have a significant edge here over Ballard, and especially defending them, as the Giants did allow Davis to gain 112 yards and 2 TDs in the win over SF, while Finley was wide open quite a bit and should have had more than the 43 yards he got on 4 receptions, if he did not drop some catchable passes. Note, favourites are 26-16-3 against the spread in the SBs. :eyes Credit to the Giants in winning this, but feel that the Patriots threw it away. Uncharacteristic errors to give away a safety and then recover a fumble, only to get penalised with 12 men on the field, is not something we often see from then. Recovered well to lead 17-9 but then could not get any players open, and Gronkowski's ankle really hindered him. Allowed 12 answered points as they had to settle for punting the ball away allowed Eli the opportunity to win the game for them. Playoff record: 5-9 (-1.19) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Thanks bc. :ok Glad I recorded the game...I was at work, managed to watch all of the first half...then the last 9 or so mins... ...except I got so pissed off with NY in the last 2 mins that I told the room what I thought and went for a 5 min walk!! :lol Seriously, [i hate when people bring $$ into a sporting argument, but here I go anyway...:D] hugely paid professionals...the best of the best... ...and twice in the last 2 mins they go OOB...then, with a first down with a 70ish secs left they don't kneel??!! WTF???...THEN, Bradshaw's ego and MVP aspirations take over his brain. :wall It was all too much for me. And, watching the replay, they were very lucky, VERY lucky that NE dropped a couple of catchable balls... ...and, for us AFL guys...actually, a question to you Americans; is there a rule where you can't punch the ball? It constantly amazes me that in that final Hail Mary situation (well, tbh, any defensive situation!) that someone doesn't just come across and belt the ball into the stands. What's with this tappy-tap bullshit that without fail once or twice a year gets caught on the rebound?? :eyes Seems to me that anyone who's played any AFL at all would make a huge difference as a defensive coach of some kind, be it the amount of stupidly easy picks that get dropped every week, to the defensive spoil we're all taught from under 9's. Anyway, forgive me for ending the year on a rant! lol. Super work danj! :cheers Was certainly a gutsy call way back, trust you're enjoying the spoils as I type. ;) Thanks for a great year guys. Always appreciate this group (and a few new ones each year ;) ) for the way we go about it. Until September...it's AFL time!! :p And while it's handy to recover some of the $ I dropped during the season, I'm now off to our fantasy thread to answer the main question of the day... ...did the NYG D do enough to hold off a charging Nicks??!! :hope :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Not a classic Superbowl,few crucial mistakes by the Pats cost them the game but credit to the Giant that's been the case all through the playoffs,taking advantage when teams let them off the hook. May be a bit unfair but was fuming with brady for throwing the interception early in the 4th quater, looked to me as though he was trying to match Mannings miracle play against them in the last Superbowl,looked like he was certain to be sacked but managed to wriggle free and tried to throw to near endzone when player was covered, just no need as it was first down.just got the feeling he was looking to match Mannings miracle play. No idea who will win next years Superbowl,seems so many negatives about every team. doubt if i will back either team to be back at the Superbowl next year. Few teams showed potential, SF and Detroit could be worth a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcornermax Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Loved what SF did this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Thanks bc. :ok Glad I recorded the game...I was at work, managed to watch all of the first half...then the last 9 or so mins... ...except I got so pissed off with NY in the last 2 mins that I told the room what I thought and went for a 5 min walk!! :lol Seriously, [i hate when people bring $$ into a sporting argument, but here I go anyway...:D] hugely paid professionals...the best of the best... ...and twice in the last 2 mins they go OOB...then, with a first down with a 70ish secs left they don't kneel??!! WTF???...THEN, Bradshaw's ego and MVP aspirations take over his brain. :wall It was all too much for me. And, watching the replay, they were very lucky, VERY lucky that NE dropped a couple of catchable balls... ...and, for us AFL guys...actually, a question to you Americans; is there a rule where you can't punch the ball? It constantly amazes me that in that final Hail Mary situation (well, tbh, any defensive situation!) that someone doesn't just come across and belt the ball into the stands. What's with this tappy-tap bullshit that without fail once or twice a year gets caught on the rebound?? :eyes Seems to me that anyone who's played any AFL at all would make a huge difference as a defensive coach of some kind, be it the amount of stupidly easy picks that get dropped every week, to the defensive spoil we're all taught from under 9's. Anyway, forgive me for ending the year on a rant! lol. Super work danj! :cheers Was certainly a gutsy call way back, trust you're enjoying the spoils as I type. ;) Thanks for a great year guys. Always appreciate this group (and a few new ones each year ;) ) for the way we go about it. Until September...it's AFL time!! :p And while it's handy to recover some of the $ I dropped during the season, I'm now off to our fantasy thread to answer the main question of the day... ...did the NYG D do enough to hold off a charging Nicks??!! :hope :loon Good call on the under Taza. I knew the over was in trouble when a 6min opening drive elads to 0 points against two teams that don't really turn the ball over or make big plays in special teams. As for the game, it was kind of lackluster for large portions. The Gronkowski injury was huge probably the deciding factor in the game IMO. The Giants only needed Chase Blackburn to cover him. Welker's drop was crucial as well and he will have to live with that one forever. In the end the Pats will feel like they lost this game more than the Giants won it. As for punching the ball. Well a rugby or Australian rules ball is wider and easier to punch than a football. Also a football isn't that easy to get a good punch on because of the size, shape (not very wide) and when it comes to a hail mary the the ball rotates too much and is coming in on a downward spiral. If you punch say the nose of the ball it won't go too far, the point of the ball is too acute. Great season to everyone hopefully we all wound up in the green when it all was set and done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob the I ty Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Not a classic Superbowl,few crucial mistakes by the Pats cost them the game but credit to the Giant that's been the case all through the playoffs,taking advantage when teams let them off the hook. May be a bit unfair but was fuming with brady for throwing the interception early in the 4th quater, looked to me as though he was trying to match Mannings miracle play against them in the last Superbowl,looked like he was certain to be sacked but managed to wriggle free and tried to throw to near endzone when player was covered, just no need as it was first down.just got the feeling he was looking to match Mannings miracle play. No idea who will win next years Superbowl,seems so many negatives about every team. doubt if i will back either team to be back at the Superbowl next year. Few teams showed potential, SF and Detroit could be worth a bet. Interesting, that Brady play looked very Eliesque. But going for Gronk in single coverage isn't a bad idea and there was also no one open on that play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Yeah, single coverage on a LB even... ...the ball was underthrown, but even still it was unlikely to end the way it did. Reckon he'd take that option every time it arose. I hear what you're saying about the ball Rob, but esp. in a hail mary situation it's SO easy for someone to come across from the side... ...actually, the Gronkowski INT was a great example of a defender (the TE in this case) just flailing his open hands almost aimlessly. The [THAT] Manningham catch...you watch the Safety come across...decides to bump the WR on the side to try and jar the ball free rather than extend his arm and try to knock the ball out of the hands. Like I said, I'm amazed that with a reasonable amount of Australian involvement over there that more isn't being done on the defensive side of the ball...tackling included. Anyway...oh, a small retraction, I didn't realise NE had one TO left (they used after the Brady sack), so kneeling never really an option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Interesting' date=' that Brady play looked very Eliesque. But going for Gronk in single coverage isn't a bad idea and there was also no one open on that play.[/quote'] Yes it was into single coverage Rob and the receiver was also mking sure any interception and he would be straight in with the tackle to leave the Giants on the own aprox 8yrd line so can be looked at like a excellent punt,fantastic play on 3 rd down but not 1st. when Brady set himself to throw i thought someone must be wide open, i take your point maybe it was the match up NE wanted but just thought it was a bit drastic on 1st down and can't believe that was the intended play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danj2202 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 Super work danj! :cheers Was certainly a gutsy call way back, trust you're enjoying the spoils as I type. ;) many thanks, it was a punt on a team that if everything went right would be nice, and fortunately for once everything went right!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportsbetjunkie Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 So how'd everyone "make out" this year for the Super Bowl? I'm surprised more people haven't told their stories. I did a small private bet with a group of friends. I didn't win much but it was fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Re: NFL: SUPERBOWL 2012 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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