Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

[Aidymac]

*Malin Head - Folkestone 3:30* Has no form on offer, has a point win to its name but is having its handicap debut and chase debut tomorrow for Bob Buckler and gets in off a leniant mark of 73. Was 50/1, 100/1 and 100/1 on its only three starts to date to see it as now an 8/1 shot, i feel they are expecting a lot more improvement fron the horse tomorrow. Mr Buckler had a winner on 2nd January with Double Dizzy so he is in ok nick and Andrew Glassonbury is 2/16 at Folkestone. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 VC BOG*

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 2.40 Ayr Gleann Na Ndochais 2pts win @ 5/2 Bet365 Just did a nice little write up on the race and lost it so this is my shortened version. Basically I have enough doubts over his main rival Another Miracle to have a bet on GNN. Another Miracle reutnred form a long absence to finish a close 2nd but has 10lbs more weight to carry today in a tougher race. He was put up 7lbs by the handicapper and Jason Maguire takes over from 3lb claimer Henry Brooke. Also he hasn't had much racing and needs plenty of time between races so I believe there enough doubts over him to take him on. He has been well backed again today though so they obviously think they have a well handicapped horses. I do like GNN though as he won comfortably last time out in a more competitive race than this. He did it in the style of a horse that is ahead of the handicapper and although he is up 12lbs here I think he can go in again.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 1.40 Ayr Yes Tom 3pts win @ 7/2 Bet365 This is a small but select field in what looks a good novice chase. Every runner in the field can be given a chance but the one I prefer is Yes Tom. Yes Tom fell last time out at Gowran Park on only his 2nd start over fences but jumped well up until that point. He was sent off 3rd favourite in what looked a good Beginners Chase but came down at the 7th fence when still travelling well. That day he was ridden by a very inexperienced 7lb claimer but today Paddy Brennan takes over which is a big plus. On his chasing debut at Down Royal he ran a good race to finish 3rd considering it was his first run in over 200 days. He didn’t get the chance to show what he can do last time out so I expect a big run from him in this. Yes Tom is already a winner at the track and his form figures here actually read 2-2-2-1-4. He has shown that he has plenty of speed by chasing home Wyse Hill Teabags but more notably Sprinter Sacre in a couple of bumpers at the track. This time last year he finished 2nd to Grand National winner Ballabriggs at the track before easily getting his first win at Ayr over 3m. He followed that with a 4th place in grade 3 company before being put away for a chasing campaign this year. I don’t know much about the trainer but he has a good 36% strike rate at the track and has the best level stakes profit of any trainer with +£46.12. He hasn’t had any recent runners but I have no doubts that Yes Tom will be ready to go for this. Paddy Brennan hasn’t had many rides at the track but he is 3 from 10 with a good level stakes profit of +£8.38. Of the opposition the horse I least fancy is Storming Gale. He was well beaten into 2nd last time out but could be helped by the drop in trip. Blenheim Brook is ultra consistent and was a very easy winner at Newcastle over 3m and will handle the drop back in trip but could be vulnerable to speedier types. The biggest danger may well come from Dowd’s Destiny who romped to victory at this track over 2m5f last time out. He has shown plenty of promise in his 2 chase starts but should find the opposition tougher today. He hasn’t had much racing for a 9 year old so has clearly had his problems but he looks to be over them now. I see him as the main danger to my selection. This is a tough race but I do like the look of Yes Tom. Sprinter Sacre beat him easily but he battled on well that day and the pair pulled over 20 lengths clear of the field. That did come back in 2010 but I am hoping that speed may hold him in good stead here against rivals that are dropping back in trip.

[Edberg]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 1.10 Ayr BetVictor.com Maiden Hurdle Cl5 2m FIND A KEY 7/2 bog (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet) Find A Key is gonna make his debut over hurdles in this race but he gave a very good impression in his first ever start 9 months ago when able to win a bumper at Hexham at the end of nice fight gamely beating No Planning (head behind), Tricksofthetrade (1 1/4L) and Sinfield (1 3/4L) in what I rate a very decent race. Sue Smith's No Planning went on winning with ease his next start (another similar bumper at Hexham 4 weeks later) and has had three good runs over hurdles in this 2011-12 campaign easily winning a Class 3 Novices' Hurdle at Wetherby in his debut over hurdles at the end of October, then collecting a 5/5 at Haydock in the Betfair Hurdle (Class 2) 24L behind Grandouet in November and in his last start another solid effort at Catterick when 4th of 14 after having raced prominently throughout but to weakend in the run-in. No Planning is now rated 122. Alan Swinbank's Tricksofthetrade, who was already a bumper winner before that close 3rd behind Find A Key in April, easily won his first start over hurdles at Sedgefield at the end of April (7L ahead of the second) and has been rated 108 after that solo start over hurdles. He has never raced again over hurdles since. Nicky Hammond's Sinfield was another bumper winner before that loss against Find A Key and is rated 108 on NHF. Never raced since that race in April. All in all surely a pretty solid form from that bumper boosted especially by No Planning. Nicky Richards is having a good season (20 winner plus 50 more placements with 120 runners for a solid 17% winning strike rate in 2011-12 in jumping racings). The trainer from Greystoke saddled 4 runners in 2012, all ridden by Dougie Costello, and they finished 3rd, 2nd, 6th and the last one won at Catterick 5 days ago. He has had 3 runners during 2011-12 season at Ayr and two of them won and both were ridden by Dougie Costello who is two from two when riding for Nicky Richards at the course this season, for a profit of £2.73. Dougie Costello has ridden 31 winners so far this season (4 in the last week) and has a 100% record at this track this season (with the two above mentioned horses trained by Richards). Surely stats you'd like to have on your side. The main rivals of Find A Key are two: Cadore (Evens favourite atm) and Lexi's Boy (10/3 atm). Cadore was decent on flat (rated up to 75 when in training with Peter Chapple-Hyam in 2011) and had his first ever start over hurdles 21 days ago when second at Wetherby 2 1/2L behind the favourite Mica Mika. A decent debut over hurdles behind a horse that has got a mark of 115 after that win. The horse trained by Lucinda Russell can surely improve but at this price I'd better oppose him today in what looks a tougher test than his debut (the other horses in that race finished well behind and all of them look very poor quality jumpers at the moment). Lucinda Russell saddled 2 winners and 2 seconds with her last 5 runners but none of them but Stormion has shown special improvements from their previous ratings/outs and she is almost loca at this track and has a decent record at Ayr with 2 winners saddling 8 runners during the last 6 months. All in all good chances for Cadore today but far from being an Evens money shot imho. Lexi's Boy had a good career on AW winning 4 times in 6 races and being rated up to 82 when entered for the Edinburgh Cup (12f Class 2 at Musselburgh 7 months ago) where he was 7th of 9 finishing 9 3/4L behind the winner Eternal Heart and 8 3/4L behind Mica Mika who won last time out (second start over hurdles) beating Cadore as written above. Lexi's Boy joined Donald McCain's yard 4 months ago (was trained by Kevin Ryan until he started his jumping training) and was sent off 6/5 favourite in October when making his debut over hurdles at Kelso in a race won by the ex-Italian trained Kie (50/1) 13L ahead of Mica Mika (11/4 that day) who went on winning his next start beating Cadore as written above. Lexi's Boy costed 60,000gns when bought for his new jumping career and probably had worked pretty well at home to deserve such a huge support in the market that day but the grey, after chasing the leader early, went out like a light after the fourth and presumably something was amiss. After a 107-day break the horse should be fine and he will get a lot of respect on the market being the representative of such a big yard (McCain enjoys a 28% winning strake over the last 5 years at this track but had 0 winners so far this season) but I like more the chances of my selection at a similar price at the moment (odds that are going to be probably even slightly better before the start imho).

[Stribs]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th Hi Punters lounge ATR's!! Always following the great tips given on here. Just looking for some insight into the race mentioned in the title. I am looking to go big on Whataboutnow, obviously horse racing is horse racing but I like the look of this horse's chances in this race. Would anyone have any huge concerns or dangers in this race? Just hoping to get a well rounded view of the race. Thanks in advance Stribs

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

Hi Punters lounge ATR's!! Always following the great tips given on here. Just looking for some insight into the race mentioned in the title. I am looking to go big on Whataboutnow, obviously horse racing is horse racing but I like the look of this horse's chances in this race. Would anyone have any huge concerns or dangers in this race? Just hoping to get a well rounded view of the race. Thanks in advance Stribs

Won by 12 lengths on debut and should improve again for that run. Maguire/McCain a very good combination.Is a brother to Super Duty, so can be expected to have a good career. Brieryhill Boy should want further, Indian Oasis the yard are 0-26 in bumers, My Uncle Jack needs to improve a lot, Young Palm may be the biggest danger, cost €20,000 and yard are 8-53 in bumpers in past 3 years and Blazin White Face needs to improve. So although your selection is 1/2, it really should win, biggest danger for me is probably Young Palm. Good luck :cheers

[Stribs]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

Won by 12 lengths on debut and should improve again for that run. Maguire/McCain a very good combination.Is a brother to Super Duty, so can be expected to have a good career. Brieryhill Boy should want further, Indian Oasis the yard are 0-26 in bumers, My Uncle Jack needs to improve a lot, Young Palm may be the biggest danger, cost €20,000 and yard are 8-53 in bumpers in past 3 years and Blazin White Face needs to improve. So although your selection is 1/2, it really should win, biggest danger for me is probably Young Palm. Good luck :cheers

Thanks, we'll give it ago!

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

Thanks' date=' we'll give it ago![/quote'] You should get more involved in the forum mate, and enter the BBOTD competition also, you would be very welcome mate. :welcome

[Stribs]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th Unfortunately I can't write up reports like you guys do and have the understanding and knowledge of horses.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

Unfortunately I can't write up reports like you guys do and have the understanding and knowledge of horses.

All you have to do is something brief mate, 2 lines as to why you think the horse will win or place, followed by the price and firm :loon

[Stribs]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th Is there a prize?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 1.40 Ayr - 3pts win Dowd's Destiny @ 5/2 (Bet365) Spent quite a while on this race and am quite happy to have fallen on Nicky Richard's charge here. Tricky four runner novice chase and at the weights, he's probably not the best in, but his rating of 122 doesn't really do him justice having hacked up last time. He's had a disjointed career so far - having registered just six starts in over four years, but obviously has bundles of ability, and can prove that now getting a run in on the track. He won his second hurdling start before finishing 3rd next time out over a three mile trip that possibly stretched him. However, he always shaped like a chaser, and was sent over the larger obstacles when returning to the track after a year off in November. It was a hugely promising effort at Market Rasen when leading up the run-in before being chinned by the rallying favourite. He was very much entitled to need that run so it was a fine effort. The horse on terms 2 out before falling has won since, and the winner ran a good race behind a well-handicapped sort last time out despite jumping blemishes. My selection came to today's track last time out and won very well. He jumped pretty well and cruised into the race. He clearly had plenty left in the tank as when Dougie Costello shook the reins, he went clear very easily and won by 14l without any fuss or real pressure being applied. He beat a 114 horse into second that day - and definitely is better than a rating of 122 on that evidence as he could have won by any distance in reality. Of his rivals today, I feel that Blenheim Brook may be vulnerable at the finish, for all he is officially best in at the weights. He carries a penalty for a penalty kick last time out - beating horses far inferior to him on figures. I think that may well stop him today. Yes Tom is the main threat in my eyes, having shown decent form over hurdles before a promising chase debut after a break. Came down last time, though, and can jump slowly occasionally. Best form has come on deep ground so I side with Dowd's Destiny, with his yard going well, and with good ground no inconvenience. Storming Gale will need fallers in my opinion. 2.10 Ayr - 3pts win Allanard @ 3/1 (Bet365) Quinder Spring hasn't been in the best of form this season and is unlikely to have things his own way up front and I prefer the Martin Todhunter trained Allanard, with the favourite - Sammy Spiderman - not getting his beloved heavy ground today. The visor is applied for the first time on Allanard today, just to keep him straight I presume, as he can put in the odd erratic leap. It was definitely the case last time out when he ran well at Catterick. However, he was strongly bumped twice before making a mistake, and energy was used up getting back on terms at a crucial point in the race. He could offer no more up the run-in and went down by nearly 10l to two in-form horses. The ground was also softer than ideal and three miles on slightly better ground is ideal for him. Prior to that run, he raced quite lazily over shorter and didn't jump as well as he can. He stayed on but could never get involved at Market Rasen and build on a decent reappearance behind a very well-handicapped horse at Wetherby (when not supported in the market). Raced much more enthusiastically last time when up with the pace and must go well today as long as the visor has no detrimental effects. Ballycarron Lad has been off for a while and is one-paced. Gifted the race at Carlisle in March by the leaders going off much too fast. There's a good chance he'll be outpaced again today, but I doubt they'll be coming back quick enough at the finish for him.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 1.30 Folkestone - 2pts e/w Swaninstockwell @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds Going to take on the short-price favourite here with an each-way bet who would unlikely be 9/1 if with a bigger trainer than Pat Phelan. Very modest on the flat, this horse did show some ability at a lowly level before a poor couple of runs before he was sent over hurdles. Given little chance at 80/1, he stayed on well when many others were very tired to take 3rd in a novice race that has worked out well. He is the half-brother to a hurdle winner and looks capable of picking up a race himself. Proved he has the stamina for this when 3rd to a classy horse in Double Ross with yesterday's 5l winner Henry San in 2nd. His weight obviously helped him get involved that day in deep ground but it was a very encouraging effort and one he's sure to come on from. The yard's last two horses have won well and this might be the horse to put it to the favourite.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th 3.00 Folkestone - 3pts win Causing Chaos @ 5/2 (Bet365) Near The Water hasn't won over two miles so the three mile trip here obviously casts some doubts, and Quazy De Joie may want further so Nigel Twiston-Davies' unexposed runner gets the verdict here with Andrew Turnell's horse returning from a long absence. Causing Chaos showed plenty of promise in two hurdles races in 2010 before being pulled-up on his 3rd - and subsequently being off the track for a year. Returned as good as ever at Towcester in November on good ground before disappointing favourite backers at Market Rasen. However, the ground was possibly too soft that day, and the test probanbly was sharp enough for him. He ran a good 4th on his chase debut last time out on good to soft ground and looks sure to come on for that run. The ground is better today with the yard in improving form and conditions look right for this horse who can get off the mark.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th UMUDACHAR 4.00 Folkestone. 1 point win. Showed enough on debut to suggest he can take this with the normal amount of improvement. Nothing should improve more than the ordinary, so one to beat it looks like and with being slightly more unexposed than Weather Babe, we should take all the beating. Trip and ground appears fine and so anything above evens would be a go for me. 7/4 Bet365 BOG

[Stribs]

Re: Jump Racing Tuesday 17th

Thanks' date=' we'll give it ago![/quote'] Sigh! Covered a little with a tenner at 6/1 on Palm but certainly did not break even!