Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase

[BillyHills]

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[TheRat]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase I backed Rubi Light for this race last year and did the same this year EW at 25/1. He is a classy horse, had the beating of Sizing until he unseated (eventually remounted to finish 3rd), he was then very impressive in the John Durkan with his relentless galloping before finishing second in the Lexus behind Synchronised, and although I backed him that day I was pleased he didn't win as if he did it would have likely been the Gold Cup route. It is now confirmed the Ryanair in which he finished third last year but he made a blunder 3 out that hampered his chances. His jumping is better now, he was excellent in the John Durkan and I think he will go close. I still think the 8s now is a good bet and might go in again.

[NewPunter]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase I'm on Kauto Stone at 16/1 and have been impressed with this horse during the season, especially lto. Had a saver on Rubi Light at 8/1 as I had backed him for the Gold Cup

[billvernon]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase Somersby ran a blinder on Saturday won his first grade 1 chase - - I think he has improved and seems to have been campaigned more this year. Henriettas team seem to be in better form this year. Along with the placing in the King George I think he stands a great chance in the Ryanair the race quoted as his target at the Cheltenham Festival. Has ran within the requisite time period - after christmas - won a grade 1 chase and 2m5f seems to be a perfect distance for him. Ran a good time slow 5.06s And was staying on . I think I would have to be mad not to include him in my bets .:ok

[billvernon]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase I have re-assessed this race and looking at Somersby 's Rating (166) It has stayed the same so he ran to his normal level - Upto now his normal level has not been good enough He looked like a Grade 2 horse .Maybe Finians and Al Ferof did not run that high a level and that left it open for Somersby to come in and snatch the Grade 1 Victor Chandler - So that bodes ill for those 2 horses. He might be E/W horse but may not win - I think Poquelin looks interesting as he has now had a run this side of christmas (he did not last year which I think did not help) close to the Cheltenham Festival. He ran a good 2nd at the weekend - He lost by 17 lengths but was carrying 16lbs extra on his back.He has both a high RPR and OR Rating and has won CD He is definetly worth a tickle at 16/1 E/W

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase

He might be E/W horse but may not win - I think Poquelin looks interesting as he has now had a run this side of christmas (he did not last year which I think did not help) close to the Cheltenham Festival. He ran a good 2nd at the weekend - He lost by 17 lengths but was carrying 16lbs extra on his back.He has both a high RPR and OR Rating and has won CD He is definetly worth a tickle at 16/1 E/W

i like the thinking Bill, also fits the 2-5 runs, 1st/2nd LTO and ran in January plus a CD winner. What more do you want!!

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase Been looking at Poquelin again, and realy interested in this one. it started 2/1 fav in last years Ryanair chase and for me its about junmping for this horse, a decnet round and its hard to keep out of the placings. Cheltenham record reads 601812125141u2, over the ryanair distance at the course reads 121412. 2nd and 4th in the last 2 renewals its time for this one to win. 0.5pts win 16/1 Bet365

[billvernon]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase Poquelin is my choice as a good e/w

[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase RYANAIR CHASE All seven winners and five runners-up had winning course form which is a clear positive for Albertas Run, Captain Chris, Forpadydeplasterer, Great Endeavour, Little Josh, Noble Prince and Poquelin. Harsh to say that Somersby and Kalahari King (both placed at two Festivals) don’t handle the track or indeed Medermit despite being 0-7 here as he has been second in three big races at the course. Five of those winners had either won or been placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup won by Great Endeavour or the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (December Gold Cup) in which Medermit was second (Great Endeavour was back in the ruck). Three Ryanair winners had won or finished second in the previous season’s renewal which is encouraging for supporters of last year’s 1-2 Albertas Run and Kalahari King. However, unlike those three good guides, the best recent pointer has not been contested atCheltenhambut the King George VI Chase at Kempton, a race in which the last four Ryanair winners took part. Captain Chris (third) and Somersby (fourth) representative that race this year. Surprisingly, all eight BHA top-rated horses have been beaten and we have four joint top-rated horses on 168 this year namely Albertas Run, Rubi Light, Riverside Theatre and Poquelin. The Irish are yet to win being 0-19 so far though this would appear to be their strongest-ever challenge with Noble Prince and Rubi Light at the head of the market and Forpadydeplaster and Blazing Tempo being outside chances. Realt Dubh is also declared but runs in the Champion Chase. Since the Ryanair was elevated to a Grade 1 race after three runnings, it is noticeable that more stayers have been winning compared to the first three years when it was all about considered specialists at around this intermediate trip. It is fair to argue that the first three winners were viewed as 2m4f horses before the Ryanair was upgraded but, since its elevation in status, I would argue that Ryanair winners were more about stamina. It is certainly true that the quality has improved which has probably led to having to stay better and all 12 win-and-placed horses were officially rated 156+ since the race was elevated to a Grade 1 contest which was not the case beforehand and the likes of Little Josh, Forpadydeplasterer and Blazing Tempo fall down on that statistic. SHORTLIST CAPTAIN CHRIS GREAT ENDEAVOUR (SOMERSBY) (NOBLE PRINCE) CONCLUSION It might seem a bit silly to rule out the top-rated horse but this is a trends service and they do have a poor record. The four joint top weights all have niggles though as Albertas Run is now 11 and coming off a long layoff through injury and this is a deeper race than the last two Ryanairs he has won, Poquelin has been a beaten favourite in this race for the last two years and this is a better quality renewal, Riverside Theatre ran a very peculiar race on his only Cheltenham start and might be a flat track horse and the ground may just be too lively to Rubi Light. I like the fact that since this race was elevated to a Grade 1 contest that all four winners ran in the Grade 1 King George hence my interest in CAPTAIN CHRIS and SOMERSBY. Admittedly, both have their quirks but both have the natural ability to win this race and could have run in the Gold Cup and I like the stamina angle since this became a Grade 1. Captain Chris needs to sort his jumping out but if Yogi Breisner has worked the oracle with last year’s Arkle winner and he jumps like he did in that victory 12 months ago, then he has a blinding chance. Somersby strikes me as the each-way horse as he regularly runs to marks good enough to place in normal Ryanair. He is not a course winner but he been placed in the Supreme and Arkle so he does go well here and running on the stiffer New Course could be in his favour and cheekpieces just might be the answer to him having worked so well when he won at Ascot last time. GREAT ENDEAVOUR has to go on the short list having won the Paddy Power Gold Cup and he does go very well fresh and has been held back for this since being flopping in another good guide here in December when he was having his third start in four weeks so that run is best ignored. NOBLE PRINCE only fails only being Irish-trained otherwise he has strong claims on ground in his favour for the first time this season. I take the view that the Jewson, which he won last year so well, will turn out to be the key guide in years to come.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase 2.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Captain Chris @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) I have an ante-post bet on this horse at the same odds, but will top up with a small bet here now he's certain to run. I always thought this was the best race for the Hobbs yard to opt for, and think he has a better chance here. He still has plenty of questions to answer, but he also has plenty going for him here, and if bouncing back, has a big shout. He hasn't got much to find on the figures, being 4lbs inferior to those at the top of the ratings, but the highest rated runners in this race don't have as good a record as you might think. This horse won the Arkle here last year, from this season's Champion chaser, so he certainly has plenty of ability. He followed it up at Punchestown, something that horses often fail to do, before being an unfortunate casualty late on at Exeter after a break, when unshipping Richard Johnson at the last. He looked like he'd probably win that race from Medermit (15/2 shot here). He didn't jump great on that occasion, either, so it was a promising seasonal reappearance. I also think his run in the King George was pretty sound. He had Somersby (6/1 here) in behind, when 3rd to Kauto Star and Long Run, and shaped as if not quite getting home. He rallied to be right up behind the leaders at 4 out before fading, and the return to 2m5f here will really suit I feel. Obviously things didn't go to plan here last time, when his jumping become erratic, as he leapt out to his right violently throughout the early stages of the Argento, but hopefully he won't do that again. Connections say he always jumps right-handed, but he hasn't been that bad before, so I hope the problem won't materialise again here. He relishes good ground and his form here prior to last time reads 121. All of his wins have come between February and May, so this is his time of year, and he must have a good chance here, if not suffering from the same fate as last time. I'll keep the faith.

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase

Been looking at Poquelin again, and realy interested in this one. it started 2/1 fav in last years Ryanair chase and for me its about junmping for this horse, a decnet round and its hard to keep out of the placings. Cheltenham record reads 601812125141u2, over the ryanair distance at the course reads 121412. 2nd and 4th in the last 2 renewals its time for this one to win. 0.5pts win 16/1 Bet365

posted this a few weeks back and still firmly believe that Poquelin will run a very big race at its favourite track. It was 2/1 fav last year and 11/4 the year before, now you can get 22/1 with Betvictor which is massive in my opinion. Albertas run has been off the track for 145 days and although attempts to win the race for a third consecutive year but is now 11yo and i cannot see it beating younger rivals in what looks like a very good race again this year. Riverside theatre would be a decent bet around Ascot but i dont think it goes as well LH and although 3rd here 2 years ago, i feel this course wont suit and i just hope the horse comes back in good order after some bad injuries. Captain Chris ran in the King George but needs to show its old sparkle is back and Deckie Johnson just isnt my favourite jockey when it comes to top class races and i not convinced it will be his day tomorrow. Noble Prince won the Jewson last year and i expect this one to run another big race over this distance as has been running over shorter distances this season so ignore all of those and tomorrow should be spot on. Great endeavour needs to run about 10lb higher than best performance to win this and that is a tall order as i am sure one of the 160+ horses will run to thier mark leaving this one trailing. bets Poqulein 0.5pts already advised add another 0.5pts win with Betvictor Noble Prince 0.5pts win 6/1