Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

[BillyHills]

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[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) I know Our Father will be popular here, but I really like the chances of Sonofvic. Strong stayer who is 2-2 over hurdles, beating some decent types over 2m4f, but will relish 3 miles here. Made Grands Crus work hard over fences before his jumping cost him last time. This race looks perfect for him and he must have a huge chance.

[beaker1]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) PERTEMPS FINAL A handicap that has really put followers of patterns through the torture chamber recently, though the reality is that the last eight winners all starting at a double-figure price doesn’t help followers of most lines of thinking, and I would say we have to go back to Inching Closer in 2003 to find the last winner who could have been called a ‘trends horse’. The best qualifier now takes place at Cheltenhamin October which has featured three of the last seven winners of the Final followed by the Leopardstown qualifier which featured the 2005 and 2006 winners. Runners from the Cheltenhamqualifier are Russian War (5th) and Buena Vista (last). Buena Vista was also nowhere in that race last year but went on to win the Final. Runners from the Leopardstown Qualifier are Catch Me (7th) (since bought by J P McManus) and Prince Erik (9th) (second in this Final in two years ago). What has become increasingly apparent in recent seasons is that a different type of horse now wins the Pertemps Final than from a few years back. Seemingly gone now are the days for a well-hatched plot to come to fruition unlike regular occurrences during the 1980s and 1990s as the race now attracts more 140+ horses than ever before. That still hasn’t helped horses rated 150+ though as only two have notched up a top-six finish since 1997 so Restless Harry and Ashkazar are up against it. Grizzled, old warriors such as Buena Vista, who has won the last two renewals, can no longer be glossed over as was previously the case and in the process took the record of horses aged 9+ to six wins in the last 13 runnings (five of those being nine-year-olds). At the other end of the scale, only one five-year-old has ever won since the race was first run back in 1974 so Houblon Des Obeaux therefore has it to do. Last-time-out winners have won 10 of the last 16 renewals which is eye-catching given they took up less than 20% representation so there is one clear angle into the race. The only three last time out winners are Our Father, Restless Harry and Bellflower Boy. Jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus continue to be the connections to watch having won this race three times apiece, twice with 50/1 shots. O’Neill runs The Hill Of Uisneach and Palace Jester whilst McManus has Catch Me going for him. SHORTLIST OUR FATHER BELLFLOWERBOY THE HILL OF UISNEACH CATCH ME BUENA VISTA CONCLUSION Tricky to restrict it to just five but Our Father and Bellflower Boy deserve their place being the only two last-time-out winners rated under 150, Jonjo O’Neill has such a good record that one of his pair deserves a place and Thehillofuineach appeals more than Palace Jester and I wanted a runner from the two key guides so went with Buena Vista from the Cheltenham qualifier and Catch Me from the Leopardstown qualifier. OUR FATHER has gone up 19lbs to 148 for his last win but he was entered for the World Hurdle so could be much better than that rating and was ridden with any amount of confidence that day. He has run not since that victory in December to protect his mark so I can see why he is favourite. Could he be another Unsinkable Boxer for the Pipes in this race? BELLFLOWER BOY has crept in at the bottom of the handicap and won last time out which is a big positive for this race and the yard also won the Coral Cup with a lowly weighted contender not so long ago so he is not to be underestimated. Jonjo O’Neill has already had one handicap winner this week and his novice THEHILLOFUISNEACH runs here off 138 with Geraghty booked rather than the Albert Bartlett and he has to be of interest given his trainer’s uncanny knack of getting horses ready for Festival handicaps and this handicap in particular. CATCH ME caught the eye in both Irish qualifiers for this race and J P McManus has since bought him in a bid to improve on his fine record in this handicap. Catch Me has plummeted down the weights for a former Grade 1 winner and has the look of a plot for Edward O’Grady.BUENA VISTA won the 2010 running off 133 with a 3lbs claimer on board and then was an easy winner off 138 last year with a 5lbs claimer on top. This year he is off 140 and has a 10lbs claimer booked so is arguably even better handicapped. He will be primed of course and was fourth and second in the 2008 and 2009 runnings so appeals for each-way purposes again.

[bowles10]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 2.05 Pertemps Hurdle Dominated the last 2 years by an old favourite of mine Buena Vista who this year is actually better handicapped than last year and will be running off 3lb less than last years emphatic win. The key for this horse is to ignore all its form lines through the winter as its a spring horse and has to be ridden a certain way. If the stewards had any asense, they would fine pipe every race this horse runs as it isnt running on its full merits in my opinion as it never wins anywhere else. Typically pipe throws on a claimer this time with 10lb taken off. The fact now is can the horse win this at 11yo, i dont think it can as there are others to consider who should be therabouts this year. Our father is also from pipe stable and is the blot on the handicap perhaps however carrying 11st 3lb round here may just be too much and 9/2 is too short for me to be involved. Russian war is the first horse to consider and a nice price also. Gordon Elliot brings over winners from Ireland so must be feared as his Carlito Brigante won last year and again this one has course form and a course win as well. A mark of 147 also looks high but at the price i would still have a go just in case. Carberry on board also who knows his way around here. Sir Kezbaah really enjoys this type of track and can definitely make the frame, has a CD win from April 2011 also. Nick Schofield gets on well with the horse and it meets all the trends as well to boost its chances. Sonofvic is 2 from 2 over hurdles but had a disappointing introduction to novice chasing this season, and has been off the track for a while, Nicholls doesnt have a record in this race therefore its not on list as a possible winner. McCain's horse will be popular Across the bay but this mark looks too high again to make the frame. Prince erik is another to have a second look at and the negative appears to be Dermot Welds lacks of winners here but he doesnt bring many over to the festival and was 2nd to Buena vista 2 years ago in this. Runs off same mark of 137 so very interesting in this field. Conclusion is that Russian War, Sir Kezbaah and Prince Erik are all worth a consideration as is Buena Vista however at 11, i think this could be too much, wouldnt surprise me if it places though. Bets Sir Kezbaah 0.5pts win 28.0 Russian War 0.5pts win 42.0 Prince Erik 0.5pts win 27.0

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 2.05 Cheltenham - 3pts win Sonofvic @ 11/1 (Bet365) Our Father will have plenty of supporters in this race, but I think Paul Nicholls' charge is extremely interesting as well, as he returns to hurdles after a mixed couple of runs over fences. This horse has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and proved he had the class to match when running out a ready 5l victor on his debut at Chepstow over 2m4f. He saw off a couple of nice types on that occasion, including yesterday's 4m winner Teaforthree (rated 138 at the end of his novice hurdling days), and Ohio Gold (134 rated handicapper). Straight away on this, a mark of 141 doesn't look restrictive, and he's done nothing since to suggest he isn't worthy of at least that mark. He returned from four months off with a dogged display in the mud at Ascot - again over 2m4f. He really shaped like a stayer as he ran on dourly to get the better of (at the time) a promising novice in the shape of Tornado Bob. Whilst that horse has failed to deliver somewhat since, he was an impressive winner of two previous races, to merit a rating of 143. Sonofvic always looked like he'd be better over 3 miles, and tomorrow is his first chance to test that out over the smaller obstacles. He ran a cracker on his chasing debut over 3 miles after a break - making Grands Crus work all the way to the line for a 2l success. My selection was receiving 7lbs that day, but take nothing away, that was a top effort against a very high-class animal. Things didn't go to plan here last time out, however. He was stepped back to 2m5f, but his jumping wasn't as good as it had been previously. He was consistently losing ground at his fences, but showed he had an engine by getting back onto the coattails of the leaders every time. He was still in contention - quite remarkably - when slipping having been hampered after 4 out - and was soon eased right down. He may well have plugged on and got involved in that good race, despite his errors, which would have been an incredible effort really. It was a good race so the fact that his mistakes didn't see him tailed off was quite impressive in my eyes. He's had a couple of months off to recover, and given his record fresh, that looks no bad thing. Coming back to hurdles certainly isn't either, and I foresee a huge run here with conditions ideal. A good pace over 3 miles around here will bring his stamina into play, and he's still off a decent mark in my eyes. He has a big engine, and so long as he jumps okay back over hurdles, should go very well.

[Dodger]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) Don't know if it's right to post this here but Stan James are paying both the 1st and 2nd as winners on single bets!