Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan

[Spooner]

Selections in here :ok

[Spooner]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan Kempton 14:50- Timesawastin @ 16/1 Bet365 Tough race to solve but I think at one of the bigger price Timesawastin could go well. Should of had a couple of hurdle races under his belt by now but fell when well clear 3 starts ago, bounced backed with a victory NTO only to be done LTO by a horse from Nicholls' stable who was well supported in the market, on a tidy mark with improvement to come he should show up well here. Kempton 15:50- Lucaindubai (To Be Placed)@ 10/11 Paddy Power Weakened when traveling well last weekend at Sandown, had no form on soft so that could of possibly hindered the horses chances - gets in this race running off the same mark when 4th in the imperial cup at Sandown so everything suggests a good run here. I'm taking place only as I think this is very competitive but can't see this one out the frame.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan *Well Regarded - Kempton 2:50* Unexposed horse for Emma Lavelle who has done so well with her recruits this season, and this horse ran a great race on its only run over this 2m 5f trip when 4th at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 behind Fingal Bay @ 40/1. A reproduction of that effort should see it go very close here in this race. Barbatos has come out and franked the form since also. Dougie Costello gets the ride ahead of Jack Doyle, it is his first ride for Emma Lavelle interestingly. She has also had 3 winners from her last 5 runners at the track. Good chance in what is a very competitive race. *1 Point WIN @ 10/1 VC BOG*

[Tull]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan faasel 3.40 Warwick 05pts ew Goes well fresh and on his day has the beating of most of these. 11YO now but this season has shown up a few shocks for the oldies. ran well back end of last season. Preference for good ground

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 3.40 Warwick Blazing Bailey 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 William Hill I like the look of Blazing Bailey here who is now back down to his last winning mark which came at Ffos Las back in February last year. Charlie Huxley also takes the ride which takes 3lbs off his back which will help. He is a 10 year old now but showed last year that there is still plenty of talent still there and still more races to be won with him over staying trips. His record in January is quite something with 4 wins and a 2nd coming in the last 6 years. The turn of the year seems to be the time to catch him and although he comes into this on the back of being pulled up in the Welsh National, I think he has a good chance. Alan King has won this race the last 2 years and I have no doubt that horse will be spot on for this renewal. The stable are in decent enough form and they look to have a new staying horse in Hold on Julio but Blazing Bailey has been a stable start for many years now. He does like it around Cheltenham but has never raced at Warwick. I see no reason why he won’t handle the track and he goes on any ground. This represents the easiest race he has competed in this season after finishing a good 8th in the Hennessey before being pulled up at Chepstow. Blazing Bailey bids to give Alan King a hat-trick in this race and I think he will go close. This is competitive but my selection has a touch of class about him, even at the tender age of 10. Charlie Huxley is in good form at the moment and is operating at +£26.88 level stakes profit. Strongbows Legend is a horse I backed in the Sussex National where he was sent off a well backed favourite but fell when still going well at the 10th fence. I see him as the main danger to Blazing Bailey.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 3.05 Warwick Cotton Mill 5pts win @ 3/1 Coral Going to max bet this horse who I believe could turn out to be a very smart recruit to hurdling. He was initially with William Jarvis on the flat and did show some good form whilst with him. He never truly got to show us what he could do on the flat with just 4 runs but he is now in the care of John Ferguson who is definitely a trainer going places. No young trainer will be given the ammunition that John Ferguson has been given in his first season and this is due to his long-term working relationship with Sheik Mohammed. Cotton Mill is impeccably bred being sired by Tiger Hill who has sired multiple group winners including the now ill fated Rewilding. This horse is bred to be a decent flat horse, but every chance if taking to hurdling that he can become an even better horse over the jumps. On his first start for over 406 days and first start for his new trainer he absolutely bolted up by 6 lengths never having to come off the bridle. He jumped well on the whole but had a slight look at the last hurdle. I got the impression he had plenty of gears if needed. Last time out he was even more impressive romping home by 22 lengths beating 127 rated Sublime Talent. Again he never came off the bridle and was only given a few shakes for him to put plenty of daylight between him and the two horses chasing him. The times of his race wins have been slow but he can only beat what is put in front of him and can’t have looked any more impressive. Tomorrow is obviously a different kettle of fish as he now steps up into grade 2 company which I think he will more than cope with. The only danger in the race for me is the favourite who is unbeaten himself. He has looked just as impressive over hurdles and Emma Lavelle has a good record in this race. He was made to work a little harder, than my selection last time out on heavy ground at Haydock but he is well bred for the jumping game. He is by Flemensfirth who has produced several top class horses over jumps including the likes of Imperial Commander and Tidal Bay. I don’t see anything else getting into the race and these two should have it between them. I just favour the John Ferguson animal as I am fascinated to see how good he can actually be. This is obviously his first true test but if he wins this then a possible Cheltenham date may be on the cards. John Ferguson’s record over hurdles is not too shabby with 12 wins from 30 runs and a further 5 places. His record in the last 2 weeks is 4 from 7 operating at a 57% strike rate. Jack Quinlan must be thanking his lucky stars that he is the jockey that gets to ride all of these horses.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 2.30 Warwick Dorset Square 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 VC Bet This handicap hurdle race is as competitive as they come but I really like the claims of Dorset Square. He has been trained by Willie Mullins all of his career but changed stables after his last win at Cheltenham. He is now in the care of Sarah Humphrey who is more than capable of keeping him in good form. Dorset Square won last time out and beat the talented Oscargo into 3rd. That horse won next time out at Cheltenham by 9 lengths and would have gone close last time if he had not fallen. Dorset Square travelled through that race powerfully and was always looking like a threat. He was made to battle by Petitfour who re-opposes again in this race. He however has had 2 tough races behind Big Bucks since that race and I think he will struggle here. Dorset Square seems to relish these big field races as his last 3 wins have all come in races with more than 15 runners. They seem to suit his running style as he likes to be switched off out the back and make his move through the field as they all start dropping away one by one. It’s interesting that Daniel Mullins keeps the ride on him even though he has switched stables. There is a good meeting at Punchestown tomorrow and he has come over from Ireland for the one ride. A big run must be expected. He is 8lbs higher here but the race he won at Cheltenham was a better race than this one. I think he has every chance of at least running into the places. Not much point in going through the opposition as there are so many dangers with the main dangers probably being Lightning Strike, Water Garden and Barwell Bridge. I backed Barwell Bridge last time out as was tempted by him in this but I just prefer the claims of Dorset Square. Sarah Humphrey is in great form at the moment with 3 winners from 5 runners and hopefully this one can improve those stats.

[punterpete]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 2.30 Warwick Safran De Cotte win 10/1 Bet365 Winner of his first three races all on testing ground. the form since then had been patchy but bounced to form at Haydock last time out and that race has produced 3 winners from 3 runs since. Goes up 8lbs for that success and I am sure the step up in trip will not be a problem and if handling the ground has a big chance here. 2.50 Kempton Featherbed Lane win 10/1 Bet365 Winner of a handicap hurdle at Ascot back in November that included Decoy in the field. Was stepped up in trip at Aintree and was once again succesfull. Seems to handle any ground and despite a hefty rise in the wieghts 7lbs of which is negated by decent claimer Best i am sure this one is capable of further improvement. 3.20 Kempton Triangular win 12/1 Bet365 Winner in France and also on debut for Tom George but dissapointing last time out. Normaly blinkered in France and the cheek pieces fitted today could work the oracle. 3.40 Warwick Neptune Equester win 6/1 Bet365 Stays forever and will be much more suited by the step up to 3M 5F after dissapointing last time out at Wetherby over what proved too sharp a trip. Will thrive in the ground and with stamnia in spades could well have it his way today. 3.50 Kempton Zafranager win 6/1 Bet365 A lot of these look and exposed and willing to a take a chance on course and distance Zafranager being able to build on last time outs success at Wetherby despite a 6lb rise in the weights.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 2:30 Warwick: Dorset Square 1pt win 12/1 Boylesports Dorset Square put up an impressive performance last time out when relishing the the trip at Cheltenham, where he and Pettifour pulled clear of Oscargo up the hill. Pettifour did not do a lot for the form on his next run although it was in a Grade One. However, Oscargo won next time, backed as if defeat was out of the question. Dorest Square's win was in a Listed handicap and although he is up eight pounds here, this tough handicapper looks set to go well again. Since Cheltenham Dorset Square has left Willie Mullins and it will hard for Sarah Humphrey to improve on that master trainer, yet she has built a fine reputation in her own right as a trainer to follow, and she remains in excellent form. Three of Sarah's last five runners have won. 2:15 Kempton: Carabinier 1pt win 6/1 Totesport Carabinier ran a race full of promise at Towcester last time over Christmas. This will be Carabinier's third run over the larger obstacles and the previous two could have been building to this, getting him ready to strike. This lightly raced sort has plenty of scope and the form of that Towcester race looks pretty respectable with winner Baile Anrai going in again next time. Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle again today and with some improvement likely Carabinier could go close on a track where trainer Nicky Henderson does well, particularly with his chasers. 2:50 Kempton: Rajdhani Express 1pt win 20/1 William Hill & Eastlake 1pt win 14/1 Bet365 Rajdhani Express has perhaps been a little disappointing since coming over from France as there he beat Houblon Des Obeaux and ran second in a Grade Two. However, last time he was travelling well in The Ladbroke before appearing to stop quite quickly. Today Nicky Henderson applies the tongue tie and that could make a significant difference. The step up in distance to two miles five may also be helpful. Sam Waley-Cohen is back in the saddle for his father. Could go well at a decent price. Eastlake would surely be shorter if AP was in the plate, nevertheless Richie McLeron is an able deputy. This lightly raced six year old ran well behind Gambo and the third Bally Legend franked the form by winning his next two races. Jonjo's charges often step up when they move in to handicap company and any futher improvement today could see Eastlake, who is a well related sort, get involved.

[fintron]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 2.50 Kempton - Swincombe Flame - trainer won this race with Jim De Vassy last year and has a very interesting runner here, whose showed much promise in juvenile hurdles. Goes handicapping off good mark. 11/2 3.40 Warwick - Neptune Equester - strong stayer ran didn't get things run to suit at Wetherby last time. better judged on Haydock win and better to come today. 7/1 EW trebles with Raucous Behaviour, Roman Strait and Waabel on the flat.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan 2.15 Kempton - 2pts e/w Like A Hurricane @ 8/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Alan King's top-weight was a decent animal over hurdles and looks capable of outclassing his rivals here on suitable good ground. He has to improve for his recent reappearance on his chasing debut - but he certainly can. He won a decent novice handicap over 2m4f at Ascot last year but shaped as if three miles over hurdles just caught him out in the closing stages. I anticipate no problems at the trip over fences though and he should go well. The sharp 2m3f at Taunton on his comeback won't have been ideal, and he made mistakes along the way. This was his first run over the larger obstacles and his first run of the season in general so is entitled to come on massively for it. He was still beaten only 10 1/2l and it was a decent race. It was won by the useful 130-rated hurdler Oldrik (won handicap since) with 128-rated unexposed hurdler Mr Hudson in second. A 19l chase debut winner was in third, also, so it wasn't a bad effort after a lay-off. Hopefully he'll jump better today and with race-fitness, the track, and the step up in trip likely to bring out more, I expect a good run. He has to prove himself against some more experienced chasers who will put his jumping under strain, but he has a touch of class some of these don't have. Only Witness rates as the main danger for me. 2.50 Kempton - 2pts win Decoy @ 15/2 (Hills) Featherbed Lane looks a really nice type, but there's a swing in the weights today with Decoy on their running at Ascot and I hope that David Pipe's charge can reverse the form today. On that occasion, Decoy aimed to use all the speed he showed when blitzing the field for much of the contest at Cheltenham (held on by a head) over the shorter two-mile trip, but was harried through the race and it set it up rather for the Philip Hobbs runner. An error at the last didn't help my selection's cause and I think he has sound chances returning to the trip he won at previously. Even though he tired in the closing stages, he was entitled to, having motored around the track. He obviously stays this far to hold on up the Cheltenham hill, and the error at the last will have taken some gas out of him. There do appear to be some other front-runners in the race so I'd be quite happy to see Tom Scudamore have the horse just tracking the pace over this trip. Front-runners often do well at Kempton so I would like to see him handy but not necessarily forcing it. He was quite visually impressive at Cheltenham despite the diminishing margin at the line, with the blinkers on first time, and conditions should suit him today off 7lbs higher. He has to pull out a bit more, but I think the trip suits (entitled to tire also at Cheltenham with it being his first run for a while), and the yard is going well. Should run well.

[witchita44]

Ireland - weekend bulletin :welcomeFollowing a 15 point profit in week 1,and 2 winners (plus 1 lay) successful from only 3 advices last week,let's try and keep up the good work!(though this weekends meetings,like midweek fixture on Wednesday, appears more about horses for the future rather than betting propositions for the day;so nothing particularly stands out). However, ones to give us a run for our money are as follows: Punch (Sat) - 12.45 - FULLY FUNDED should appreciate drop in trip & grade.1.20 - Come To The Party may have been readied for its win last time out (a race it had won the year before).An 11lbs rise in the h'cap for today,and I feel this horse is opposable. ANDREA'S ANSWER (E.W) hasn't won a race in 18 attempts,but again ran above expectations at Fairyhouse on New Years Day (only beaten a couple of lengths in better race than this).2.25 - CHILL did us a good turn last time and is clearly on the upgrade.Ut De Sivola was mightily impressive last time, but that was a very poor race and form let down since (the horse could be very good or flattered,and at the respective prices it's worth taking a chance on the latter comment being true).3.00 - ALLURE OF ILLUSION has been found a very good opportunity to open his account over hurdles.3.35 - NARIMA (E.W) is only five and open to improvement after only a handful of runs over timber.Btn 9l in fair contest at Naas,and coming here fresh after a 10 week break I'll be interested to see how he performs;I feel he's a bit high in the h'cap at 110 and would be far more confident if he was rated nearer 100. Navan (Sun): 1.00 - A watching brief is advised on JACK THE PIRATE,who ran promisingly at Wexford in November.1.30 - TRIFOLIUM deserves this step up in grade following an easy victory at Limerick over Christmas.However, I don't feel that a probable slow pace in a small field will suit this chasing type.3.30 - KAKAGH can be forgiven last 2 runs (3 runs in 5 weeks & 3m trip).Had a break & Geraghty back on board today represents best bet of the weekend. Happy punting!!

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan Roi De Rose 2.00pm Warwick 5-1 Paddypower Trainer in form and horse can be expected to improve for its first outing. I like bacing his horses in handicaps, seems to place them well. Educated Evans would rate as the danger for me but this horse has won on heavy and won on good previously so seems to go on all kinds of ground. Looks progressive and worth taking the 5-1 on. I'd rate Super Formen as a decent ew chance at 11-1. Alfie Spinner 1.25pm Warwick 7-2 Skybet Progressive over fences, outclassed by Grands Crus but back at a realistic level now and jumps well, better than some rivals. Will stay the trip and go on the ground and looks to have Court Victory to beat but has more experience and can make that count. Hard to see past these 2 for me in this race at the weights. Carabinier 2.15pm Kempton 6-1 Bet365 Only Witness 2.15pm Kempton 5-1 Bet365 I feel the value has gone on Croan Rock, previously available at 9-1 and now down to 6-1. Carabinier is at the bottom of the handicap for a shrewd trainer and the step up in trip could suit today. Needs to work on its jumping but gets weight all round and should improve. Only Witness is a decent sort and consistent and has good form over this trip. Has had a wind operation that seems to have brought about improvement and main concern is tactics, don't want to be holding it up too late. Alasi 1.05pm Kempton 5-1 Boylesports If Menorah jumps well it should win easily but with those doubts I am avoiding it and feel there is some value in Alasi. It has won nothing races but won them in the style of a decent horse and has been long odds on for 2 races in which it excelled without much effort and now steps up in class but deserves to do so and this might not be the penalty kick its expected to be for Menorah.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan Kempton, i find is a track where its difficult to come form off the pace. There doesnt seem to be much weight advantage on track and decent horses often prevail at the track. Looked at a few prices of the winners here over jumps and not many 10/1 + shots go in. Henderson is the top trainer and Geraghty top jock with over 30% SR. 1.40 Kempton HIT THE HEADLINES, i thought this would be the favourite over Lavelle's horse, but maybe the 6lb allowance has tipped the balance in Captain Sunshines favour. I will stick with Hendersons horse which won well lTO at Huntingdon. 15/8 >PP 2.50 Kempton, ACT OF KALANISI, i was hot on this one LTO at Ascot where it ran ok but may be suited by this longer distance. I will comment on the race futher in te thread but Geraghty up top also is another plus for this one. Meets most of the trends for me albeit only 4 renewals of this race since they changed the distance. Should keep it front rank and be there at the end with every chance. 15/2 >PP 1.25 Warwick, ALFIE SPINNER to outjump and outstay Frascati PArk who hasnt raced over this far and is there for the taking i think. My selection is a stayer and will appreciate the trip more than the others 3/1 >PP 2.30 Warwick, VOLADOR was decent 2 years or so back and this would be a great traning performance to have the horse spot on today. Worth an interest in a very open race to be honest. 20/1 >PP 3.05 Warwick, COTTON MILL is a far better price than te favourite and represents the value here for Trainer Ferguson who boasts stats of 6 winners from 13 races in the last 14 days 7/2 >PP trebles bet again this week , 0.025pts EW trebles, 0.05pt EW accy = 0.6pts staked

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan A race i have unhappy memories of having taken our unbeaten hurdler to the race 6 years ago only to hear Dickie Johnson tell us he wasnt ging to bother with it and leave it out the back, it started a weak favourite on that day and the race done him more harm than good 2.50 Kempton, ACT OF KALANISI, i was hot on this one LTO at Ascot where it ran ok but may be suited by this longer distance. Geraghty up top also is another plus for this one. Meets most of the trends for me albeit only 4 renewals of this race since they changed the distance. Should keep it front rank and be there at the end with every chance. I also like 3 others in the race Radjhani Express from the Waley Cohens boast some form in France and hasnt raced too badly on previous 2 starts in handicap hurdles, Ohio Gold from a trainer and Jockey in form, needs to improve but the right trendfs for this one also, El Dancer discussed this one with dad this morning, take the Aintree form from 2 years ago and this one would be amongst the favourites Bets Act of Kalanisi 0.45pts 15/2 El Dancer 0.1pt 22/1 Radjhani Express 0.25pts 20/1 Ohio Gold 0.2pts 9/1 1pt staked with Pady power who have a money back if 2nd to well regarded or decoy

[punterpete]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan

2.30 Warwick Safran De Cotte win 10/1 Bet365 Winner of his first three races all on testing ground. the form since then had been patchy but bounced to form at Haydock last time out and that race has produced 3 winners from 3 runs since. Goes up 8lbs for that success and I am sure the step up in trip will not be a problem and if handling the ground has a big chance here. 2.50 Kempton Featherbed Lane win 10/1 Bet365 Winner of a handicap hurdle at Ascot back in November that included Decoy in the field. Was stepped up in trip at Aintree and was once again succesfull. Seems to handle any ground and despite a hefty rise in the wieghts 7lbs of which is negated by decent claimer Best i am sure this one is capable of further improvement. 3.20 Kempton Triangular win 12/1 Bet365 Winner in France and also on debut for Tom George but dissapointing last time out. Normaly blinkered in France and the cheek pieces fitted today could work the oracle. 3.40 Warwick Neptune Equester win 6/1 Bet365 Stays forever and will be much more suited by the step up to 3M 5F after dissapointing last time out at Wetherby over what proved too sharp a trip. Will thrive in the ground and with stamnia in spades could well have it his way today. 3.50 Kempton Zafranager win 6/1 Bet365 A lot of these look and exposed and willing to a take a chance on course and distance Zafranager being able to build on last time outs success at Wetherby despite a 6lb rise in the weights.

A treble dose of seconditis LOL :cry

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan Unlucky Pete - on the right lines - (no consolation I know..) Handy drift there on Cotton Mill - well done Bowles & CPO :clap And nice win in the big one Fin :ok just got up

[andythornton]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Sat 14th Jan hi mates! i am new in here, but you seem a very knowledgable and friendly bunch..my day today was not too good, a few fallers and unplaced ones. but as you know, the next race is never far away, and tomorrows programme doesnt look too bad, especially hoping, that kelso goes ahead..so, lets have a proper and successful time here. gl stefan;)