allthethings Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I wish you well, but over time I think this won't profit. The reason is that total goals are essentially random (I've tested this out with repeated systems over the past six years), and that bookies already factor in everything you are factoring in when they set their lines. Your expectation should be that you win as many of these as you lose...but if you're not getting better than 2.00 for all of them, over time, you'll lose money. I've been keeping track for a long time of best-priced overs in every league...meaning, the best-priced over 2.5 goals, but only the best-priced over 2.5 when the odds are 2.1 or better when the odds are first released. These teams, with an odds average of 2.16, are going over 48.2% of the time across all leagues. I didn't start winning with this strategy until I threw out leagues where these teams underperform (Croatia 1-8, for example) and focused only on leagues where overs do well: France Ligue 1 61%, Scotland Premier 66%, etc. Anyway, my point is that the games that you would think would be absolutely the worst for overs...the game in each league where everybody is betting on the unders...these are in total hitting at 48%. The best strategy with totals is to avoid leagues like Spain Primera (22%), and just to see where the market is putting its money and bet the other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I wish you well, but over time I think this won't profit. The reason is that total goals are essentially random (I've tested this out with repeated systems over the past six years), and that bookies already factor in everything you are factoring in when they set their lines. Your expectation should be that you win as many of these as you lose...but if you're not getting better than 2.00 for all of them, over time, you'll lose money. I've been keeping track for a long time of best-priced overs in every league...meaning, the best-priced over 2.5 goals, but only the best-priced over 2.5 when the odds are 2.1 or better when the odds are first released. These teams, with an odds average of 2.16, are going over 48.2% of the time across all leagues. I didn't start winning with this strategy until I threw out leagues where these teams underperform (Croatia 1-8, for example) and focused only on leagues where overs do well: France Ligue 1 61%, Scotland Premier 66%, etc. Anyway, my point is that the games that you would think would be absolutely the worst for overs...the game in each league where everybody is betting on the unders...these are in total hitting at 48%. The best strategy with totals is to avoid leagues like Spain Primera (22%), and just to see where the market is putting its money and bet the other way. Thanks for your info mate, to some degree I do agree with you, its been successful-ish so far but like my opening post points out this was just an experiment based on the results of my other system. Still, its been nicely surprising that its made profit, though it would be foolish to assume it will make more based on the fact i have not back-tested it. Plus I know that I haven't been keeping score with a bank score etc so probably pushing the rules a bit. I plan to start using banks and more detailed results from now on, however. Thanks for the info though, the research you've done is admirable! Are you still betting on this market after removing all the anomalies you found? Seems you found a nice strategy :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Thanks for your info mate, to some degree I do agree with you, its been successful-ish so far but like my opening post points out this was just an experiment based on the results of my other system. Still, its been nicely surprising that its made profit, though it would be foolish to assume it will make more based on the fact i have not back-tested it. Plus I know that I haven't been keeping score with a bank score etc so probably pushing the rules a bit. I plan to start using banks and more detailed results from now on, however. Thanks for the info though, the research you've done is admirable! Are you still betting on this market after removing all the anomalies you found? Seems you found a nice strategy :ok I have several different angles based on the concept of best-priced overs. For a while I tried best-priced odds covering everything on offer in each league...I had a lot of success with favorites of -1 at plus money in the premier leagues (in lower leagues this was a bad bet)...it seemed that if everybody expected a favorite to cover that handicap, they failed, but if it was the one game in a league where there were lots of good reasons to avoid taking the home favorite, the game invariably finished 3-0. What I liked about that strategy was you were always at least putting your money on good teams...and a lot of times with best-priced overs, you're putting your money on teams that look like they'll never score. Over the years, though, best-priced overs have been the best angle for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Milan won 3-0 and Sociedad 5-1. Here's where we're up to with this system so far.... Starting bank 100 Current bank 152.40 Total staked 240 Number of bets 24 Winning bets 15 Losing bets 9 Strike rate 62.5% Yield 21.8% Profit 52.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS [h=4]Top picks for 2-3 goals[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds [/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Sunderland - Norwich[/TD] [TD]49.09%[/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Wolves - Liverpool[/TD] [TD]47.77%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Leeds - Birmingham[/TD] [TD]46.91%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Millwall - Watford[/TD] [TD]46.39%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Leicester - Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]54.12%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Hull - Doncaster[/TD] [TD]54.23%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Ipswich - West Ham[/TD] [TD]54.67%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS One more: [TABLE] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Barnsley - Derby[/TD] [TD]52.39%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Top picks for 2-3 goals [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [TH=align: left]Result[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Sunderland - Norwich[/TD] [TD]49.09%[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]3-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Wolves - Liverpool[/TD] [TD]47.77%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]0-3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Leeds - Birmingham[/TD] [TD]46.91%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]1-4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Millwall - Watford[/TD] [TD]46.39%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]0-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Leicester - Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD]54.12%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]01/02[/TD] [TD]2-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Hull - Doncaster[/TD] [TD]54.23%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]0-0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Ipswich - West Ham[/TD] [TD]54.67%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]5-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Barnsley - Derby[/TD] [TD]52.39%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]31/01[/TD] [TD]3-2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So the good run has come to an end, not sure how much more I can do on this to be honest as it so closely tied to my main system which is my focus. Starting bank 100 Current bank 131.40 Total staked 320 Number of bets 32 Winning bets 18 Losing bets 14 Strike rate 56.3% Yield 9.8% Profit 31.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I do like this system of 2-3 goals m8 but if your not 100% behind this system..maybe just do your overs system and put 100% into that :) just don't leave both systems..we need you:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I do like this system of 2-3 goals m8 but if your not 100% behind this system..maybe just do your overs system and put 100% into that :) just don't leave both systems..we need you:ok Cheers Chris :ok i definitely dont plan on ditching the other system, even got people at work who are following the picks now that they've seen the results to date :lol Will be back later to post the latest picks on both systems, theres a fair few this week on the over/under. As for this system in particular, im happy to keep it going another round or 2, see where it goes. Catch you later on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS [h=4]Top picks for 2-3 goals (bet365)[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Juventus - Siena[/TD] [TD]49.49%[/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Bristol City - Leeds[/TD] [TD]51.51%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Coventry - Ipswich[/TD] [TD]47.47%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Norwich - Bolton[/TD] [TD]45.31%[/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Stoke - Sunderland[/TD] [TD]54.89%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Marseille - Lyon[/TD] [TD]54.99%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Top picks for 2-3 goals (bet365) [TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Juventus - Siena[/TD] [TD]49.49%[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Bristol City - Leeds[/TD] [TD]51.51%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Coventry - Ipswich[/TD] [TD]47.47%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Norwich - Bolton[/TD] [TD]45.31%[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Stoke - Sunderland[/TD] [TD]54.89%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]04/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Marseille - Lyon[/TD] [TD]54.99%[/TD] [TD]1.95[/TD] [TD]05/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Starting bank 100 Current bank 110.90 Total staked 380 Number of bets 38 Winning bets 20 Losing bets 18 Strike rate 52.6% Yield 2.9% Profit 10.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS One more roll of the dice. Why not... [h=4]Top picks for 2-3 goals[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Zaragoza - Betis[/TD] [TD]50.76%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]20/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Sevilla - Osasuna[/TD] [TD]50.93%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Crystal Palace - Watford[/TD] [TD]48.91% [/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Hibernian - Celtic[/TD] [TD]47.78%[/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Barnsley - Portsmouth[/TD] [TD]47.62%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Juventus - Catania[/TD] [TD]52.84% [/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Novara - Atalanta[/TD] [TD]53.18%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Peterboro - Bristol City[/TD] [TD]46.16% [/TD] [TD]2.00 [/TD] [TD]18/02[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Udinese - Cagliari[/TD] [TD]45.89%[/TD] [TD]1.95 [/TD] [TD]19/02[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broni_slaw Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Thank you for a great job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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