Filthy Logic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If you've seen my other thread, 'Filthy Logic - OVER/UNDERS system', you'll already be familiar with how my system works. If not, all you need to know is that ive written a system (admittedly with some help!) which takes upcoming games and works out the probability of games going over or under 2.5 goals, based on a formula which takes into account a whole load of stats and historical data based on season games, home/away records, recent form, head to heads, past season data, the lot. The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market. Seeing as the odds are usually no less than 1.9 and often more like 2.0, this COULD be quite lucrative. This is an idea which only came to me recently, so I've done no back-testing. But lets see how we go??? I'll list the games as before, match, percentage, and odds at william hill. Must say im curious to see how this one goes! So after tha ridiculously long intro, here we go with the first. Fingers well and truly crossed. No.PairProbabilityOdds 1Birmingham - Ipswich52.88%1.90 This is actually 2.00 on bet365, so if you want to jump aboard id head over there. Its just the program has trouble getting the data from 365, so thats why im using william hill. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS No.PairProbabilityOdds 1Birmingham - Ipswich52.88%1.90 Thanks 2-1 Birmingham BET WON Fantastic start, lets see if it continues! Number of selections: 1 Won: 1 Lost: 0 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty657 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Good luck man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Cheers scotty :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Now this is going to be interesting. 10 games for a proper test of the system! :hope Bet365 this time - William Hill doesn't have the 2 or 3 goal market from what I can see, so i've had to input this manually. Lovely odds though. :) Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityOdds1Leicester - Barnsley49.77%2.0 2Nottingham - Southampton48.93%1.95 3Parma - Siena52.05%1.954Liverpool - Stoke52.51%2.00 5Crystal Palace - Leeds47.36%1.95 6Watford - Reading46.75%1.95 7Middlesbrough - Burnley53.67%1.95 8Blackburn - Fulham45.89%2.00 9Zaragoza - Getafe54.25%1.95 10Aberdeen - Kilmarnock54.35%1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Now this is going to be interesting. 10 games for a proper test of the system! :hope Bet365 this time - William Hill doesn't have the 2 or 3 goal market from what I can see, so i've had to input this manually. Lovely odds though. :) Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityOddsResult 1Leicester - Barnsley49.77%2.0 1-2 2Nottingham - Southampton48.93%1.95 0-3 3Parma - Siena52.05%1.95 4Liverpool - Stoke52.51%2.00 0-0 5Crystal Palace - Leeds47.36%1.95 1-1 6Watford - Reading46.75%1.95 7Middlesbrough - Burnley53.67%1.95 0-2 8Blackburn - Fulham45.89%2.00 3-1 9Zaragoza - Getafe54.25%1.95 10Aberdeen - Kilmarnock54.35%1.95 0-0 4 out of 7 so far - Lets hope for a better ratio by the time tonight's games are over. Into profit anyway at this point if using real money, so could be worse. Plus I have a modification which i will trial after this weekend as i have high hopes for this system. :hope for the remaining games. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS 6out of 9 on the day. 1 to come tomorrow. I think we might be on to something here lads. :clap Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityOddsResult 1Leicester - Barnsley49.77%2.0 1-2 2Nottingham - Southampton48.93%1.95 0-3 3Parma - Siena52.05%1.95 4Liverpool - Stoke52.51%2.00 0-0 5Crystal Palace - Leeds47.36%1.95 1-1 6Watford - Reading46.75%1.95 1-2 7Middlesbrough - Burnley53.67%1.95 0-2 8Blackburn - Fulham45.89%2.00 3-1 9Zaragoza - Getafe54.25%1.95 1-1 10Aberdeen - Kilmarnock54.35%1.95 0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limerickmick Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Well done and congrats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Following with interest :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 So close. A 94th minute goal in Parma and we are at 6 wins out of 10 for the weekend. 7 would have been spot on but what can you do - keep watching this space if you are interested, I'll keep posting them as its still an encouraging start. Small modifications to come as I said earlier, let's see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Great start mate , will be watching with interest :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS So close. A 94th minute goal in Parma and we are at 6 wins out of 10 for the weekend. 7 would have been spot on but what can you do - keep watching this space if you are interested, I'll keep posting them as its still an encouraging start. Small modifications to come as I said earlier, let's see. I am.. thats at least one :) Looking forward to see next selections! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I am.. thats at least one :) Looking forward to see next selections! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS No.PairProbabilityDateOdds 1Fulham - Newcastle49.4%21/011.95 2Atalanta - Juventus49.25%21/011.95 3Udinese - Catania48.95%22/011.95 4Dundee United - Motherwell48.85%21/011.95 5Bolton - Liverpool51.5%21/012.00 6Wolves - Aston Villa51.85%21/011.95 7Birmingham - Watford52.76%21/012.00 8Bristol City - Doncaster53.75%21/011.95 9Man City - Tottenham53.95%22/012.00 10Everton - Blackburn45.45%21/012.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS If I may ask, this probability column shows % for 2-3 outcome, right? If Yes, then U have some matches with no value. If No pls explain. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pupsaa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS If I may ask, this probability column shows % for 2-3 outcome, right? If Yes, then U have some matches with no value. If No pls explain. Thanks It's explained in the 1st post: The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS If I may ask, this probability column shows % for 2-3 outcome, right? If Yes, then U have some matches with no value. If No pls explain. Thanks Hi mate, sorry if it isnt clear, did you read the opening post of the thread at all? The percentage is based on the 2.5 goal market. 50% suggests it will fall somewhere in the middle of the 2.5 bracket, therefore it would qualify for the 2-3 market. Maybe I should omit the percentages, I can appreciate it looks confusing! :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS It's explained in the 1st post: The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market. :lol thanks, you got in there first :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 22, 2012 Author Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS No.PairProbabilityDateOdds Result 1Fulham - Newcastle49.4%21/011.95 5-2 2Atalanta - Juventus49.25%21/011.95 0-2 3Udinese - Catania48.95%22/011.95 2-0 4Dundee United - Motherwell48.85%21/011.95 1-1 5Bolton - Liverpool51.5%21/012.00 3-1 6Wolves - Aston Villa51.85%21/011.95 2-3 7Birmingham - Watford52.76%21/012.00 3-0 8Bristol City - Doncaster53.75%21/011.95 2-1 9Man City - Tottenham53.95%22/012.00 3-2 10Everton - Blackburn45.45%21/012.00 1-1 Another 6 wins out of 10.... +18% on level stakes of 10pts :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris-UK Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Nice work m8 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting-place Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS It's explained in the 1st post: The difference here is that I will be taking the games which come out in the 45-55% range. This basically means that while it doesnt qualify for an 'over or under', the percentage indicates that it is very close to 2.5 exactly (you know what I mean) - SO, rather than waste these 'picks', im going to use them to pick out games for betting on the '2 or 3 goals' market. Hi mate, sorry if it isnt clear, did you read the opening post of the thread at all? The percentage is based on the 2.5 goal market. 50% suggests it will fall somewhere in the middle of the 2.5 bracket, therefore it would qualify for the 2-3 market. Maybe I should omit the percentages, I can appreciate it looks confusing! Thank you to both :) I did read 1st post but I didnt get it that % is for o/u play. Its clear now. Good selections these weekend :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Lets go again shall we, one more for tonight :hope Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityOddsDate1Southampton - Leicester46.82%1.95 23/01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Sandwich Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Lets go again shall we, one more for tonight :hope Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityoddsDate1Southampton - Leicester46.82%1.95 23/01 I agree with this everything about this points to a 2-1 or 3-1 to Southampton!!! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadfrog Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS I agree with this everything about this points to a 2-1 or 3-1 to Southampton!!! :cheers I am on it too. I expect a 2-0 or 2-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Good stuff lads, though not for the 3-1 eh ;) Back here tonight for a celebration?? :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Top picks for 2-3 goals No.PairProbabilityOddsDateResult 1Southampton - Leicester46.82%1.95 23/01 0-2 Panicked a bit after the early goals but it all came good! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS And the hits just keep on coming! Top picks for 2-3 goals Motherwell - Dunfermline 51.61% 2.00 24/01 As you can see I can no longer post tables, hopefully you get the idea. Hopefully I can figure out a way round this when i post later in the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Shame, an 18th min red card is bound to open up the match. Still, 10 minutes before the end and it was still looking good. Impressive of motherwell to stick a few away against 11 for so long. 'Til next time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS [h=4]Top picks for 2-3 goals[/h][TABLE] [TR] [TH=align: left]No.[/TH] [TH=width: 200px, align: left]Pair[/TH] [TH=width: 100px, align: left]Probability[/TH] [TH=width: 50px, align: left]Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 75px, align: left]Date[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Milan - Cagliari[/TD] [TD]50.18%[/TD] [TD]-[/TD] [TD]29/01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Sociedad - Sp Gijon[/TD] [TD]54.39%[/TD] [TD]- [/TD] [TD]29/01 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted January 27, 2012 Author Share Posted January 27, 2012 Re: Filthy Logic - 2 OR 3 GOALS Apologies, forgot to add the odds in my haste. Milan - Cagliari @ 2.00 Sociedad - Gijon @ 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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