NFL: Divisional Playoffs

[blackcrow]

San Francisco +3.5 vs New Orleans. Total is 47.5 New England -13.5 vs Denver. Total is 51. Baltimore -9.5 vs Houston. Total is 35.5. Green Bay -9 vs NY Giants. Total is 52.5. Early leans for me. SF ml, NE line, Houston ml, GB line. SF's defence too good for them. NE: Brady shreds this secondary, again. Houston upsets the Ravens. If Denver can pass and run on the Steelers, so can these guys on Baltimore. Rested GB, who score points at home, too good for Giants secondary. GB defence is rested and players with injuries get a chance to prepare.

[danj2202]

Well there is some new orleans -3 out there and thats a strong lean for me. Also a big fan of the new york giants on the spread here but will leave that as packers sure to be backed. Also will probably go money line play Giants too. Will see what develops and put the picks up in the week

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs This might be the Tebow groupie within but I think people are over-estimating what NE did in Denver a few weeks back. Denver were leading that game comfortably in the first quarter until a) McGahee, who had 70yds at 10ypc, went off and basically didn't return to the game; and b) Ball, Tebow and Cosby all fumbled in the 2nd quarter, essentially giving the Pats the lead they needed. Mention should also be made of the threat that Thomas now offers too. He and Tebow have a very good understanding, particularly when ad-libbing on scramble plays. None of which is to say Denver will win, but I think a lot of people are forgetting just how competitive Denver were until McGahee left the game last time and fumbles took over. Now with Thomas a more prominent threat I can't see the Pats putting too many more men in the box to stop McGahee either.

[theplumline]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs I'm very tempted by the +13.5 lead for Denver @New England. You know the Patriots will leak points. Baltimore I believe are sure things against the Texans with all that experience in the D. They are the dark horses for the superbowl, if they get there they win. Am I alone in thinking 13/8 is a little large for the 49ers given they are at home and have a better record than the saints?

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Just for the craic, my idea of the scores... 49ers 16 Saints 20 Patriots 34 Broncos 13 Ravens 17 Texans 27 Packers 31 Giants 20

[danj2202]

Ok. I should have taken the +9 yesterday that i saw but you live you learn..... New york giants (+8.5) to beat green bay 5/6 bluesq New york giants to beat green bay 29/10 bet365 If there is one team in the nfl that is built perfectly to dispose the world of these pesky packers it is the new york giants. Arguably they are the best pass rushing unit in the league with the likes of umeniora (spelling?), tuck and jpp. To be able to cover all the weapons that the packers have you must have an elite pass rush and be able to drop seven into coverage. New york can achieve this both giving rodgers less time to pick out the pass and sufficient numbers to cover the likes of the returning jennings and jordy nelson etc. The pass rushers must also maintain their "contain" and keep rodgers in the pocket as if he is able to roll away from the pass rush to buy time he can pick the pass or take off for a first down. The inconsistent jermichael finley is likely to be the x factor. If rodgers gets him involved early and often new york will have a problem as he is the likliest mismatch in the secondary as a linebacker will not be able to cover him. Eli manning has quietly put together a superb season and is one of at most four quarterbacks in the league that will be able to keep up with Rodgers as no matter how well you defend him the pack will put some points on the board. New york also have a better running game that has improved in leaps and bounds over the last few weeks of the season and can eat the clock should they get a lead. I believed that the giants would win at home to the packers in the regular season and they fell just short. Things are not likely to be any easier in the road on the playoffs but the giants will have learnt lessons from that game just as in 2007 when they lost late on the year by a narrow margin to the pats before defeating them in the superbowl. New york is a team that is playing their best football and is game tested by one of the leagues toughest schedules this year. New england and green bay are built in very similar fashions and the giants beat the pats. The giants are a team with nothing to lose here.............dont say you werent warned ;)

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Really tough games this weekend. The points seem tempting in most games but I don't think we can underestimate a bye week, especially teams with the caliber of New England and Green Bay. I am leaning NO -6, NE -13, and Bal -7.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs With that being said I do like this total New England/Denver Under 50 We know the Pats can score and have a mediocre defense and their games have gone over the total 6 straight weeks including 41-23 @Denver in week 15. One thing to be certain of is despite struggling early defensively they've picked up their game in the 2nd halves of games in their last 3 (e.g. spotted Buf 21 pts in the 1st qtr they finished with 21, gave up 17 to the Dolphins before half and the dolphins finished with 24 on a TD with under 2 mins left, gave up 16 to the Broncos in the first 16 mins and they gave up 23 with a TD in the mid 4th qtr). Now it's a rematch and they've seen this Bronco offense before. Many teams have done well vs the Bronco offense once they've gotten the feel of it like the Steelers did last week, the OT play not withstanding. Don't expect Belicheck's defense to give up big plays, they will challenge Tebow to try and move the ball methodically down the field, they will certainly double Thomas especially with Decker out. With 2 weeks to rest and get prepared I expect the defense to be fresh and ready. With the success the Steelers had last week on the ground I expect the Pats do to the same, as they've been conservative the past few seasons in the playoffs. The game will be around -10 degrees Celsius, so I expect more ball control from the Pats. I expect the Pats to get the early lead and use a ball control offense, unlike the past few games where they've trailed early and had to open things up to get back in the game.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs NO @ SF OVER 47 (2.00 @ PP) Surprisingly SF av. nearly 24 ppg at home, and haven't scored

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs San Francisco @ 2.62 pinnacle San Francisco make a rare appearance in the playoffs, and like Houston last week, like them to make the most of it. They have a very good defence that was very good in creating turnovers this year, and like them to do well here. While they do well in running the ball, they have problems passing the ball, but they will have their opportunities on a pretty poor pass defence that allows 260 yards per game (ranked 30th). Like Gore to run on them and has had some good performances against them in the past. New Orleans will look to pass the ball, as doubt that they get much going on the best run defence in the league. NO have struggled on the road, playing outdoors and playing in the playoffs in the past, and with Brees having to lead this team, this OL needs to be very good to stop the SF pass rush, that does get to the opposition QBs. Another problem for NO is having to travel across country, which has already seen teams like Pittsburgh (SF score on one of the best defences in the league) and the NY Giants (with a passing QB similar to Brees) come here and lose. Like SF to win this. New England -20.5 @ 3.45 centrebet Expect New England to demolish Denver who surprisingly overcame Pittsburgh last week. Denver will look to run the ball as that is what they do best, but the Patriots have a decent run defence and will look to stop the run and force Tebow to throw. The Patriots pass defence is pretty poor but Tebow is not that good in passing the ball despite his heroics last week, and doubt he plays well two weeks in a row. New England will use their passing game once again, with an experienced QB in playoffs to pick apart the Denver secondary, like he did earlier in the season when they beat them last month 41-23 in Denver, as Brady passed for 320 yards and 2 TDs, and would not be surprised that he gets more here. They even ran for 141 yards in that game, so this Denver defence will give up points, to a Patriots defence that has scored 31+ points in 7 of their last 8 games. Denver got their win last week, but this teams is much, much better on offence, and they will not be able to cope with it Playoff record: 3-1 (+2.74)

[danj2202]

Have been toing and froing all day but screw it no matter how much this feels like a trap game lets do it! New orleans -3 to beat san francisco 5/6 vcbet This is a battle of offense and defense, but not how you think!. Its a battle of the 49ers offense against the saints defense.............in the redzone, where the niners are third worst in the league on offense and new orleans are top three worst on defense. Whoever is most effective in this game in the redzone wins. When it comes down to it the saints will score points against anybody, the niners have not played a schedule of elite offensive teams and that is reflected in what is a good but not elite defensive unit bar willis and the rookie aldon smith. It comes down to drew brees v alex smith to me and where i want to put my money.......there is a reason akers has had such a historically good season, field goals wont be enough here and the weather will be a non factor too. San fran off a soft schedule with a quarterback in his first playoff game against brees and a fabulous offensive unit. Trap game or not count me in!

[Dougal]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs 2pts - Kendall Hunter rush yards, over 23.5, 10/11 @ Ladbrokes This is the most fascinating game of the weekend for me, edging towards the Saints but changed my mind a few times today already. This line was actually at 20.5 when I took it a few hours ago but I would still take 23.5. In his rookie season Hunter has been over this mark in 10 of the 14 games where he's had carries. The Saints allowed the least rush attempts in the league in the regular season but the second most (5 yards) per rush attempt. Hunter isn't going to get a lot of attempts here, particularly if NO get ahead early, but I think the 49ers defense will keep them in it long enough. If he gets 5 or 6 carries then I think Hunter can cover this line.

[Zagi]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Today's play off game matche up the 49rs and the Saints. The 49ers bring their best defense to this game and they hope to stop the high fyling Saints offense. Their defense was what led them to the 2nd seed spot while the offense left something to be desired, dspite Alex Smith having a 100 QB rating at home. Their run game is good and the defense + running game combo is what usually brings the wins in the play offs. The Saints have been great at home but have struggled somewhat on the road. Brees has played well on the road but his 95 QB rating is way below his home performances. Their defense is pretty bad, but they are better against the run which should be usefull here. There is a bunch of trends supporting SF tonight and NO is 0-4 on the road in the play offs. Altough all the reasoning here is pointing to a 49ers win, I'm going the other way. I think that their defense is overreated in relation to the strenght of their playing schedule and I can't get the game vs Steelers out of my mind. "One leg Ben" was able to carv up their secondary and I just can't see Brees not doing the same. Also the Saints have the ability to come from behind while I just can't see SF pulling off a comeback. The 49ers might keep it close in the first half, but there's no way they can keep up for the whole game. Pick: Saints -6.5 @ 2.45 Sportingbet

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs New Orleans -6 @2.30 with bet365 Have to go with the Saints here. Yes the 49ers defense has been stout all season but as Taza stated above they haven't really faced a top passing offense. They faced the Cowboys and gave up 27 could've been 30 had Jesse Holly not been stopped a yard short in OT. They gave up 330 yds passing to Big Ben as well and 300+ to Vick and Eli. The other offenses they've faced are NFC West teams, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, They'll stone the Saints run game I think the Saints defense forces Alex Smith into some bad decisions.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Saints @ 49ers: Under 43 pts @ 2.25 For all the talking about the 49ers having had a weaker than average schedule, the fact also is that the Saints have struggled outdoors at much weaker teams than today's hosts this season. I don't think NO will rush for a TD, and don't envisage Brees throwing for any more than 2, whilst Smith is more of a game manager than a play-maker. Can't see either team topping 14 in TDs, so hopefully there won't be more than 5 FGs in total

[deise]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs 4 points Chris Ivory under 40.5 rushing yards in first NFl game @5/6. 49ers fairly good against the run and New Orleans spread the running game between 3 or 4 players, so although 40.5 is pretty low, I just don't think he'll get enough attempts

[Zagi]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs New England - Denver However I look at this game it spells under for me. Yes, the Patriots have a pretty good offenes and a bad defense and yes, the Broncos have put a lot of points on the board vs the Steelers but the under still stands out to me as some value. Although the Patriots defense have been ad looking at the yards allowed they have managed to keep their opponents inside reasonable nubers on the board. One more thing I can't see happening is a few turnovers by the Broncos in their own half as it happened tah last time these two met a month ago. There's no chance Tebow will get the mismatches downfield like in the game vs steelers last week which should lead to longer drives eating up the clock and NE will have to score heavily for this to go over as I have Denver down between 13-17. Under is 18-8 in Broncos last 26 games following a S.U. win. Under is 11-4-1 in Patriots last 16 playoff home games. Pick: Under 50 @ 2.00 Pinnacle

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs

Can't see either team topping 14 in TDs in the first half

FMP :loon :lol Good game so far, delicately balanced

[BluePirate]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Great game in SF One pick for the NE game. Ochocinco over 17.5 receiving at 4/5 bet365. Ok he doent get many plays but when he does there normally 20 yarders. Brady to find him at least once against the denver secondary.

[danj2202]

Note to self: if it looks like a trap play it probably is lol..........discipline, discipline, discipline! :(

[BluePirate]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs

Great game in SF One pick for the NE game. Ochocinco over 17.5 receiving at 4/5 bet365. Ok he doent get many plays but when he does there normally 20 yarders. Brady to find him at least once against the denver secondary.

Can anyone confirm if ochocinco was even involved in this game - bet marked a loser but i dont even recall him being on the pitch!!!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs No idea if he played a snap but he was active for the game, which I'm guessing is what they'd base it on.

[BluePirate]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Ok thanks.........not good value for money that one!!!

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs San Francisco @ 2.62 :D Great game with Smith coming through in the end :eek New England -20.5 @ 3.45 :D Too easy. Denver has their glory last week, and with a rested Patriots defence, they swarmed all over Tebow Playoff record: 5-1 (+6.81) Houston @ 4.05 pinnacle Riding Houston again as i tipped them to win the AFC weeks ago, and based on last weeks game, reasonably confident they continue their form here. Only worry is that Baltimore are rested like NE were, and with Denver being blasted yesterday, then Houston on the road, against a very good home side, could also suffer a similar fate. However, still not entirely convinced that Flacco is the man to lead them to a win, while Rice is a very good RB, he too has his problems in keeping the ball. This Houston defence showed last week that they are a good unit and are as good as the Baltimore defence. Baltimore's defence is very good at rushing the passer, and expect them to get to Yates as often as possible. However to negate this, Houston will offload the ball to either Foster or Tate as quickly as possible, while they have a very good WR in Johnson. Both sides are pretty similar in their makeup, with very good defences and an offence based on running the ball. However like Houston's Foster as he is much more consistent than Rice, and in Johnson, they have a very good outlet in the passing game. Baltimore may have beaten Houston 29-14 earlier in the season, with Foster and Tate getting only 90 yards, and Flacco threw 305 yards, but like Houston to turn the tables here Green Bay -13.5 @ 3.00 centrebet GB are very well rested, with quite a few of their players with niggling injuries ready to play and do well here. They have been very good at home, averaging over 35 points a game, and in Rodgers, they have a QB with 45 TDs and just 6 INTs this year, and has thrown for 773 yards and 8 TDs in his last two games against the Giants. After seeing what Brady did to Denver yesterday, then expect him to be focused to perform similarly here, such is the rivalry and respect these quality QBs have for each other. The Giants secondary has its share of problems and doubt that they can cope with GB's multiple receiver sets Manning too has been doing the job for the Giants, but can be erratic, and going to Lambeau Field, where the crowd will be deafening, he may come unstuck. GB has 31 INTs for the year (best in the league) and tied SF for the most turnovers, so their defence can be good when they are switched on. They will need to be, as the Giants running game has improved of late, and if they stop the run, then Manning generally comes unstuck, as he needs the run to give him time to set his feet and find his WRs. GB won 38-35 in NY last month, as Rodgers had 369 yards with 4 TDs and an INT, while Manning had 347 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT, so both QBs are ready to go, but with the line steadily going down, there is a belief that the Giants can upset them here - i doubt it, as they gave their best shot at home and still lost, and now they go to GB, with this defence rested, and the better QB, this smells like a blowout win for GB by at least 2 TDs.

[danj2202]

Ochocinco was on the field. Commentary mentioned him entering the game directly before bradys first incompletion

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs

. Baltimore's defence is very good at rushing the passer' date=' .[/quote'] :cheers Another good day mate. Just a couple of quick (pointless! :lol) notes. I just read an interesting articale analysing how in fact the Raven pass rush has slowed down considerably towards the end of the season. Just 3 sacks in the last 3 games, and significantly less QB hits in the last 5 games compared to the first 10-11. Good news I guess! ;) I have been looking all week at an under, as against good run D's Houston have generally played low scoring games...Cinci, Atl, Jax, Balt, Pit, Mia... ...but I just realised that Johnson didn't play last game v. Baltimore, and they also missed a FG. [The fumbled deep too, but got a cheapy in return so that's a wash.] Balt also recovered a fumble in the endzone = TD. Having said that, Balt home record is impressive...baeting Pits, Houst and SF all by 10+. So, more random thoughts, that I was amazed when I looked back...this is the first home Playoff game for Balt since 06/07!!...AND, they haven't won a home Playoff game since winning the SB in 2000/01!! :eek Crazy. Really can't see anything I like here at all.

[trips]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Incredible game between NO and SF, thought SF were finding a way to loose the game,so many takeaways and NO still in the game.not a fan of the SF offensive play calling last night, too much emphasis on playing safe and keeping Breese off the field that they could hardly get a first down,no real plan to beat their Blitz till end of 3rd quater yet it was obvious they would be blitzed throughout the game,.SF defence were brilliant but the offence will have to play better if they meet GB in the Conference final. To many anti post bets riding tonight so no bets for me, but would wait to see what Balitmore team turns up and bet in running. Giants defence very strong last few games,i am sure they will stop GB on some series and Giants offence will run the ball well but cant see them stopping GB score enough points to win the game.just too many weapons but it wouldn't be a shock if they did as the GB frame of mind and play calling after the GB coach sons tragedy worries me more.

[Zagi]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Ravans - Texans Ravens vs Texans, should be an esay one. The home team has a better QB, better defense, home field advantage, better runnung game. Looks like a blow out. Well, I don't agree with that assesment. The ravens have been winning at home this season, but have had problems closing games and although they beat the Texans already with a healthy Schaub, I can see the visitors stepping up thier defense to match the Ravens who have a history of not covering the spread in this round of play offs. Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games. Pick: Texans +7.5 @ 1.94 Pinnacle

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs

:cheers Another good day mate. Just a couple of quick (pointless! :lol) notes. I just read an interesting articale analysing how in fact the Raven pass rush has slowed down considerably towards the end of the season. Just 3 sacks in the last 3 games, and significantly less QB hits in the last 5 games compared to the first 10-11. Good news I guess! ;) I have been looking all week at an under, as against good run D's Houston have generally played low scoring games...Cinci, Atl, Jax, Balt, Pit, Mia... ...but I just realised that Johnson didn't play last game v. Baltimore, and they also missed a FG. [The fumbled deep too, but got a cheapy in return so that's a wash.] Balt also recovered a fumble in the endzone = TD. Having said that, Balt home record is impressive...baeting Pits, Houst and SF all by 10+. So, more random thoughts, that I was amazed when I looked back...this is the first home Playoff game for Balt since 06/07!!...AND, they haven't won a home Playoff game since winning the SB in 2000/01!! :eek Crazy. Really can't see anything I like here at all.

Thanks TD :cheers. And well done on your over last night in SF. :clap. Huge 4th quarter where the points flowed in for you. As for the Baltimore pass rush, they may have slowed down but you know with Ray Lewis and co, they are always in the face of opposing QBs. That's why it is important that the Houston OL stays strong and Yates gets that ball out early. If they do that, then they should have the better offence to win this. The Ravens home record is very good, and so far, all the home teams have won in the 6 playoffs that have been played, so maybe if there is an away team that wins, it will be here, as doubt that GB gets beaten at home. GL to whatever you play. I have got a massive 4 team parlay (yesterday and today) riding here. :lol

[TazaD]

Re: NFL: Divisional Playoffs Going down a path I don't usually travel... Finley over 4 receptions (2.05 @ Olympic) While he's only had 5 games over this number all year (and a push), it's more about NYG. They do give big numbers to TE's...good pressure on the QB leads to a lot of hot reads/quick throws?... ...not entirely sure, but 6 targets 4 catches to Gonzalez last week, 8/7 Witten, 18/8 Keller!, 5/3 Witten, 8/5 Graham, 4/3 Davis, 15/8 Gronkowski, Heap 6/4, Davis 6/5... 4 does really look like the bench mark here, so will be happy to take the push, but a good price for the overs. Nelson over 77.5 (1.87 @ 365) Just a low number v. a crap pass D. He's been 77 or more in all but one home game this year...went for 94 @ NYG, who have the 4th worst pass D in the NFL. Jennings over 77.5 (1.83 @ Sportsbet) By all reports he's been training perfectly well all week, so is fit to go. Started the season with 6 of 7 82+, and had a 94 @ NYG in between some injury problems. We know Rodgers will spread it about...just think he's personal passing total is a bit high, so safer to go with his trusted receivers. Grant over 41.5 (1.87 @ Cent) And I think it's a bit high because they will run the ball. Grant has had 10+ carries in 4 of the last 5 games...and has had 44+ in 4 of 5...missing out v. NYG yes, but away from home which makes all the difference. NYG allow 4.5 ypc, and with Starks hobbled, Grant get enough carries to top this low line. Bradshaw over 55.5 (1.87 @ Cent) GB are worse still...give up 4.7 ypc, but have low total numbers as teams have to start throwing. Not sure NYG will fall into that trap. Again, a low line due to the last meeting, but he has been consistantly in the high 50's since coming back from injury. In the run to the Playoffs GB have given up 121 to Kalil Bell, 78 to M. Bush, 107 to Blount, 83 to Tolb-ay, 175 to Peterson...and a 51 to Peterson. This game has NE written all over it, where NYG run the ball 30 times and makes plays when they have to. 15 carries should get the job done. Good luck guys. :cheers EDIT: Go Houston you good things for bc's SB party shout!! :beer :lol EDIT pt. 2: There's a jenningsbet?! :unsure