Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December

[Lars]

15:00 Leicester RANJOBAIE hasn’t shown a great deal since leaving Nicky Henderson but I’m expecting a much better effort today with a run under his belt for a yard whose runners have generally been needing an outing, and off a mark of 129 he looks attractively handicapped if getting back to anything like his best. He was a very talented novice hurdler for the aforementioned trainer, finishing only a whisker behind the winner in a Grade 3 event at Sandown over this trip, being very game in defeat. That was off this very handicap mark and he looked like a horse that could definitely be competitive off marks in the 140’s. That was in March 2010 and although he’s struggled since, he’s had an interrupted career with plenty of absences, along with not taking to fences very well (still ran well on one occasion). Reverting back to hurdles when last seen, he was pitched into a very tough class 2 hurdle at Haydock. He’d have likely struggled had he being in ideal shape anyway and should come on bundles for that run, especially as other Venetia Williams inmates have been doing similar after her customary slow-start to the Jumps campaign. Today, he drops down to a more modest 0-130 level and it’s the weakest race he’s faced over hurdles for some time. This is quite a competitive contest with two unexposed horses leading the market. There is no value in either of them really and I’d rather look elsewhere. Ranjobaie does have to bounce back in a pretty big way but I don’t think that’s unlikely. Better for the run, he has ground to suit and has no problem with this 2m4f trip, especially a testing one. The 4lb drop in the ratings back to a very workable mark of 129 is only a good thing and the more positive booking of Aidan Coleman (only ride today) will only be of benefit. He’s 20/1 and although he’s hardly the most likely winner, he’s still decent value as he has plenty in his favour today and should be around the 8/1 mark. If coming on the run, he’ll go well. RANJOBAIE; 2pts @ 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December 3.00 LEICESTER AFSOUN 14-1 0.5pt ew A small bet on this one.10 go to post for this CLASS 3 Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle.And maybe AFSOUN is on a bit of a down cycle.Was 3rd in the CHAMPION HURDLE at CHELTS some years back and although not at its best last time out in a similar class of race,that was its first run for 225 days.It had been very poor previously but has been running way out of its league against the likes of BIG BUCKS and CELESTIAL HALO. Now should be fully wound up and is well weighted for this class of race.On its seasonal comeback on the 18th of November actually beats todays favourite over 2 miles in its last race and is 5 pounds better off in the weights for todays race,the favourite is 2-1,AFSOUN is 14-1.The claimer takes off 3 pounds,ground is ideal,ok with trip and could win this race.

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December 3:00 Leicester - Dhaafer - 2pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Alan King has his string in fine order of late and Dhaafer, his only runner of the day, could step up on his previous form this season now that he gets a stiffer test of stamina. The main worries are whether he's good enough to overhaul the pair who are dominating the market but they look quite a fair way short (in the betting) to me in a race of this nature and taking a chance by opposing them looks to be the best option. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing King's 4-year-old gelding running at a relatively stiff track in a race where they're likely to go a good clip, with the free-going and speedy Fiendish Flame being the one who should ensure that there'll be a generous gallop if he's not left alone in front (was last time out). Dhaafer has always shaped as if he'd relish a good test at around this 2m 4f trip and although he was beaten a fair way from home last time out, that came at the sharp Fontwell track on soft ground in a race where he was held up in rear, which isn't ideal. He only ran on past beaten horses in the closing stages (wasn't given a hard time) but with race-fitness likely to be improved for having had a couple of runs this season, he should be coming to hand any time soon. The King yard actually punted him quite a bit on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby but he was expected to be fitter than he proved to be (according to his trainer) and it was a relatively encouraging run despite the fact that he weakened out of it a few flights from home. Robert Thornton is back on board Dhaafer for the first time this season and that's another positive. The better ground should also be much more up his street and the handicapper has dropped him 3lbs since his last run a few weeks ago. Interestingly, connections now reach for a visor to replace the cheek pieces that were on last time out and hopefully that will help him to find the bit of improvement needed to win here. King also reports that he has been pleasing him at home, although it's probably best to take that as a pinch of salt. If the market leaders don't run up to scratch (fav has plenty in hand for winning easily over C&D last week but 2/1 is a bit skinny; second fav priced on potential improvement), I'm very hopeful that this fellow will run a good race and 9/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes will do the job and hopefully he'll be there or thereabouts at the business end.

[switzerland]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December Bold Sir Brian - 12.40 Hex 1pt Win 4/5 B365 Not much of a price but I really like this horse and the form lines surrounding him. Plus I thought it was a particularly tough day. Bold Sir Brian didn't disgrace himself in novice hurdling company last year and has been sent straight over bigger obstacles this year. He has finished second in both his two runs this season, beaten by two potentially very smart horses and I don't see anything of their caliber in today's field. First time out he made a few novicey mistakes but he ran on very gamely to finish a good second to Frascati Park. Two winners have already come out of that race. Last time out he bumped into Kudu Country (subsequently beaten by Frascati Park) on ground that probably wasn't ideal. But it was a pleasing run and he jumped better. He's only a 5year old and very lightly raced so should have plenty of improvement in him. He's interesting from a breeding perspective (by Brian Boru) and hopefully Lucinda Russell's young gelding can win his first beginners chase today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December Hexham 2.50 Code Blue 3pt EW - 3/1 gen Bit of a non-trier lto, when given a strange ride, but they probably knew he will need the run. Should be fit and ready today and I see him as a progressive horse, who will win fair few before handicapper gets him right. Hopefully he'll settle, because he sometimes tends to race keen. If he does, he will be very hard to beat today. 3.20 Mr Chippy 2pt EW - 3/1 Fred Won easily lto and races off only 7lb higher here. This is a lot better race and he will have to carry 12 stone over 3 miles, but I doubt he will stop his improvemenet off 97. The way he won lto suggested he's a lot better than his mark and trip shouldn't be a problem. Yard is in great form and not many have a chance here, so if he has a clear round he should be in the first three and is a worthy fav for me.

[fintron]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December 12.20 Hexham Stopped Out - second to Notus De La Tour at Carlisle on chase bow last time and finished creditable second, a fair effort for his first run over fences. The winner went in again next time out and the third, Quel Ballistic, ran a cracker at Wetherby next time (albeit in a handicap). Favourite was a classier hurdler than the selection but hasn't entirely convinced enough to think his odds on price is fair. 7/2 Boylesports 1.00 Leicester Rowan Tiger - ran very well on his hurdles bow over C&D last time, not helped by a muddling gallop, and raced quite keen. In a big field today, should get a bit more cover. Should jump better with that experience under his belt and compensation could await. 7/2 Coral

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December Stopped Out 12.20 Hexham. 1 point win. Needs to find a shade with the favourite on the bare form of things. However, the trip and ground's fine and the favourite doesn't appear to forceful in a fight. I think we can jump well and be more consistent to win. 7/2 Boylesports (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December THE THIRSTY BRICKY 1.20 Hexham. 1 point win. A bit risky with fitness issues, but handles this very testing ground and could be better caught fresh. The trip is fine and all others have their own questions to answer, so with it looking a race that 1 of any can win, I'd be with us at the odds. 15/2 Victor Chandler BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December 2.50 Hexham - 1pt e/w Knockando @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/5 odds 8 runner handicap and Knockando looks a little bit better than a 25/1 shot to me with 3 places on offer. This is his handicap debut and even though his mark doesn't look particularly lenient, he can still prove competitive in this race despite his price. He didn't show much in bumpers before finishing midfield behind Ballabriggs in a novices hurdle. Showed some ability when 4th of 11 in a decent novice race behind the smart looking Jammia who won by 29l (wide margin winner only start since also) and was a further 11 1/2l behind a 105 rated horse who won by 17l next time. The 3rd horse is rated 110 so the form wasn't too bad. The race he competed in next time was a weaker novice race, and his stamina was coming into play as he rallied into 2nd at the second last, with every chance, when stepping at the flight and coming down shortly after. He was going to play a part in the finish that day and proved soft ground is no problem. He shaped as if needing the run on his only start this season. Travelled into the race quite nicely for a long way before quickly finding little. Should strip fitter today and now pitched into handicap company can go well. He's very stoutly bred so he should be getting home better in these testing conditions than many, and he just looks a tad overpriced here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Wednesday 7th December Still not sure what was going on in Jason Maguire's head in the last? :\