v-zero Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system um,I am sorry Maybe isnt entering into debate anymore cos I am most intrigued to know why he doesnt also lay those "dangerous" odds-on shots his system identifies eg Liverpool(v Norwich).Surely they would be better value? Or at least post them. Also,Datapunter,you appear to have answered a question I asked on another thread a few weeks ago re.when exactly a system is said to be "proven". Could you please confirm that its proven after 500 games? Is this something that is generally agreed upon? If so,presumably that means that,at the present rate,we will have to wait til about 2016 to find out if this works before we all lump on!? I spose the bookie offering the best prices on the double that day will get a big surprise:)!! also,in november 2016,what roi will the bets have had to have made before its deemed proven? would 1% be enough or is there a minimum roi required after 500 games? How many people in the history of PL have actually achieved this 500 game proof and do we know what happened afterwards ie did the prices move on the week after the system was proven? If not,then does anyone have an explanation why not? many thanks,and good luck Maybe,see you in 2016(or earlier if you can step up the selections:)) It is quite easy to calculate the likelihood of reaching a positive roi given a set of odds, and assuming they are fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Also,Datapunter,you appear to have answered a question I asked on another thread a few weeks ago re.when exactly a system is said to be "proven". See thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/when-can-system-considered-have-proven-itself-123396/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system There is no such thing as a 'Safe' Multibet. I predict: 1) You'll lose more often than you anticipate 2) You'll be tempted to post lame excuses as to why a particular safe bet let you down, including 'XYZ was a factor I hadn't taken into consideration, but I'll include that factor in future screening' 3) You'll give up posting your progress when your bank falls below £100 I hope you'll prove me wrong, but I honestly don't think so :hope To X_Gandalf_X: WOW. You seem to be very good at making predictions. Are you a professional ? Since you are so good at it, I'm expecting to see YOUR football system and will ask you for it regularly. Addressing your magical predictions... 1. No, I won't lose " more than I anticipate" because I am not anticipating a specific number. Therefore, I cannot lose more than I anticipate. Yes, I'll have losing bets but I can't possibly lose more than I anticipate because I'm not anticipating anything. 2. No, I don't make excuses. 3. No, if my bank falls below 100, I shall top it up with another 100. . So, your predictions are wrong on all counts. You claim to "bring a balance" but my system had not even begun, a ball had not even been kicked when you were prophesying its doom. That's not " balance ". I welcome constructive debate and advice but your posts on this forum are nothing but cynicism and negativity, born out of envy. I've been told that you are a poker player. People tell me that every week and then they wake up. They are usually on the way to the jobcentre. Stay off my thread and take your poison elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 12, 2011 Author Share Posted November 12, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Actually i agree with Gandalf although i might formulate the same a little nicer. To use the term "SAFE" is misplaced, misleading and in fact a little dangerous. There is nothing here that merits that term to be used, this system as it stands has as much inherent risk as any other posted here. And also as much chance of succeeding. The observation of a few months, especially on very short priced selection, is far too short to be able to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion. For that you need several complete seasons. If in a series of 50 bets you get one or 2 wrong, or simply not as expected, the result as a whole will shift considerably. After all a winner of 0.20 turns into a loser of -1 , get a few of those and profit turns into loss. There is still a chance the system as whole is profitable but that will only become apparent after 500+ bets. Another aspect is that the criteria leading to bet or not to bet are not fixed but partially based on your personal assesment of the factors for an individual match. This makes it difficult to be consistent in your selections over a long period of time. People have a tendency to "tweak" along the way based on recent results ignoring the question if that tweak is actually a good idea in a long term context. The result is that you cannot base conclusions long term as the data is too volatile. I.e. results from the past say nothing about results in the future. So what you have is a system based on your personal intuition, and not on any kind of objective criteria. Its chances of being successful are the same as anyone else. To think it actually is 'safe' would be an illusion as it's risk is also the same as anyone else. Good luck. --- Reply to Datapunter..... Thanks for this amazing post. It is staggering that you know more about the inner workings and methodology of my system than I do. 1. You wrote the "system has as much inherent risk as any other posted here". Where is your evidence for that ? You don't know my selection criteria. The system has been devised after careful analysis. 2. You wrote " It also has as much chance of succeeding ". Again, where is your evidence for your wild, unsubstantiated blurts ? 3. You wrote " The criteria to bet or not are not fixed but are partially based on your personal assessment of the factors for an individual match". This is garbage. My selection method is absolutely fixed. It has a checklist of 8 factors which have 5 unambigous Yes or No answers. When assessing a game, I ask those 5 questions and tick off the answers. My personal intuition or assessment of the game or the players or anything else plays no part whatsoever in the final decision whether or not to include or exclude that game as a bet. You don't know how I select or exclude games and yet you write so confidently " what you have is a system based on personal intuition and not on any kind of objective criteria". 4."People have a tendency to tweak....." But I am not "people". 5. You accused me of misleading people by calling it safe.. If you have bothered to read my first post properly, you would see that I wrote that the system is DESIGNED to screen out those long odds-on bets which fail. I did not write " guaranteed", I wrote ' designed'. Only a very stupid, naive and greedy person could possibly believe that there was such a thing as a safe bet. There is no such thing as a safe bet, even in a a one-horse race. a few years ago, there was a race - I think it was a Chepstow or Southwell - in which three horses were declared and two pulled out,leaving a walk-over. You would think that with only one horse in the raxce, it was a "safe " bet, a cert, a sure thing, a banker. No. The horse fell at the last fence, the jockey did not remount and so the horse was disqualified. So, even in a one horse race, there is no such thing as a safe bet. Any idiot coming on to this forum expecting such a thing gets what he deserves. You, Datapunter, have criticised my system without knowing anything about it and have been wrong on all counts. You know nothing about my selection method and yet you make these wild accusations with no evidence and with your own great authority. You have posted 7,000 posts - averaging 17 per week- none of which have been original, creative or helpful. You have verbal diarrhoea. You are the proverbial gob*****, the bar-room braggart who cannot keep his mouth closed for very long, who cannot keep his infallible opinions to himself. You can actually do something useful....You can do 2 things..... Firstly, since you are so clearly so knowledgeable, post YOUR football system for us all to admire and profit from. I shall be asking you for it regularly. Secondly, keep your shite off my thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Try not to get so irate about your detractors, it won't help you concentrate on what you are trying to achieve. Personally I cannot draw any kind of conclusion on your system yet, all I know is that mathematically there is no money to be made from selections at prices of less than 1.5, but perhaps that is because the mathematics cannot hope to quantify those last few factors that make the difference between a selection being a 1.3 and a 1.25.... So good luck, I hope you succeed. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system My comments in this thread are based on the information that is actually provided. Having revised both i have nothing to add. I wish you good luck in your betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system --- There is no such thing as a safe bet , even in a a one-horse race. a few years ago, there was a race - I think it was a Chepstow or Southwell - in which three horses were declared and two pulled out,leaving a walk-over. You would think that with only one horse in the raxce, it was a "safe " bet, a cert, a sure thing, a banker. No. The horse fell at the last fence, the jockey did not remount and so the horse was disqualified. So, even in a one horse race, there is no such thing as a safe bet. Any idiot coming on to this forum expecting such a thing gets what he deserves. You, Datapunter, have criticised my system without knowing anything about it and have been wrong on all counts. You know nothing about my selection method and yet you make these wild accusations with no evidence and with your own great authority. You have posted 7,000 posts - averaging 17 per week- none of which have been original, creative or helpful. You have verbal diarrhoea. You are the proverbial gob*****, the bar-room braggart who cannot keep his mouth closed for very long, who cannot keep his infallible opinions to himself. You can actually do something useful....You can do 2 things..... Firstly, since you are so clearly so knowledgeable, post YOUR football system for us all to admire and profit from. I shall be asking you for it regularly. Secondly, keep your shite off my thread. Take a chill pill MAYBE !! :eyes If i may make what i hope is a constructive comment ,as that is the way it is intended , and thats to change the title of your system by removing the word SAFE . The line i have highlighted in your statement is very true as all punters should acknowledge , but to put the word SAFE in the title IS misleading as there is no such thing as a safe bet but your choice of wording does not lend itself to that truth . Just an opinion which will hopefully lead to peace and tranquility on your , so far , successful thread :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system I didn't intend to mislead anyone and I'm more than happy to change the title, if someone can tell me how to do it....... Or if the moderators want to remove the word 'safe' , that's fine by me . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Gday player Click on edit on your first post...then click edit again, then make the changes you want... Cheers and dont let the naysayers get under your skin amigo...:cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Okay, I've removed the word 'safe' from the title. I've said my bit to the cynics and I'll shut up from now and stick to the footy. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system well done mate so far lets see some more bets soon:clap:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system BET 4 5 points win accumulator : Barcelona ( v Zaragoza) ... Saturday Anderlecht ( v St Truiden) ....Sunday Groningen ( v Venlo) ... Sunday Eintracht Frankfurt ( v Aachen) ... Sunday The current online odds with Ladbrokes are 1.08 and 1.14 and 1.17 and 1.30, giving an accumulator of @1.87 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system BET 4 5 points win accumulator : Barcelona ( v Zaragoza) ... Saturday Anderlecht ( v St Truiden) ....Sunday Groningen ( v Venlo) ... Sunday Eintracht Frankfurt ( v Aachen) ... Sunday The current online odds with Ladbrokes are 1.08 and 1.14 and 1.17 and 1.30, giving an accumulator of @1.87 Thanks player...Im on...btw, could you name the Leagues from now on so the bets are easier to find....cheers mate and gl...:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Update to Bet 4 : Barcelona .......WON... 4-0 Anderlecht.......WON...3-1 Groningen........WON...2-1 E. Frankfurt......WON..4-3 So, a winning accumulator. This bet = 87 % profit on the bet Starting Bank = £ 200 Bank is now = .....£ 218-70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system BET 5 10 points win accumulator : Real Madrid ( v Athletico Madrid ) ...Spain League 1 Kobenhaven ( v Koge) .....................Denmark League 1...Sunday The current online odds with Expekt are 1.20 and 1.20, giving an accumulator of @ 1.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system BET 5 10 points win accumulator : Real Madrid ( v Athletico Madrid ) ...Spain League 1 Kobenhaven ( v Koge) .....................Denmark League 1...Sunday The current online odds with Expekt are 1.20 and 1.20, giving an accumulator of @ 1.44 Thanks mate...Im on...have a good weekend...:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Update to Bet 5. Real Madrid......WON....4-1 Kobenhaven.....WON....2-1 So, a winning accumulator. This bet = .... 44 % .... profit on the bet. Starting Bank = £ 200 Bank is now = £ 223-10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mega809 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system going well keep it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system System BET No. 6 5 points win accumulator : Fenerbahce ( v Ankaragucu) ... Turkey..Liga 1 Frankfurt ( v Karlsruher) .... Germany ..Bundesliga 2 Tottenham ( v Bolton) ... England....Premier Anderlecht ( v Leuven) ... Belgium..Jupiter Ligue 1...Sunday The current online odds with Interwetten are 1.20 and 1.30 and 1.35 and 1.15, giving an accumulator of @2.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system System BET No. 6 5 points win accumulator : Fenerbahce ( v Ankaragucu) ... Turkey..Liga 1 Frankfurt ( v Karlsruher) .... Germany ..Bundesliga 2 Tottenham ( v Bolton) ... England....Premier Anderlecht ( v Leuven) ... Belgium..Jupiter Ligue 1...Sunday The current online odds with Interwetten are 1.20 and 1.30 and 1.35 and 1.15, giving an accumulator of @2.42 Im on amigo...good luck to us...:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Sorry to see your last bet fail :cry But keep up the good work! Best of luck! Question: Do you also consider the Greek league too? Or have you eliminated them also due to scandals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Hi Sophocles. Thanks for your good wishes. It's a good question. I know that in summer, 70 people were named by the Greek police as being involved in match-fixing and that 10 were arrested and detained, including players, chairmen, referees, officials, etc. It was sad to see that even the chairman of that top. great club Olympiakos was named. I thought long and hard about excluding the Greek league but I decided that since it was only one season and since all eyes and cameras will now be on every game, to include the Greek league for now. Even the Turkish league has been beset by scandal and I was in two minds about Fenerbahce last week. This season, it is Atalanta's turn in Serie A to have points deducted before the season started for match-fixing. Italian football is corrupt from top to bottom. ( The thing that is wrong with match-fixing is that they never let me in on the secret ! :lol ) If you are following my system, only bet with SMALL stakes and then you will enjoy your betting. Good luck ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Update to Bet 6....last weekend. Fenerbahce .....WON....4-2 Frankfurt ........WON....2-0 Tottenham.......WON...3-0 Anderlecht ......DREW..0-0 So, a LOSING bet 5pts lost. Starting Bank = £ 200-00 Bank is now = £ 218-10 ----------------------------------------- Bet 7. AZ Alkmaar ...... ( v De Graafschap )....Netherlands Eredivise 1....Sat 10.Dec Manchester United ( v Wolves) ....England Premier 1 Dortmund ( v Kaiserslautern ( Germany Budesliga 1...Sunday.11.Dec Current online odds with Interwetten are 1.12, 1.22 and 1.25, giving an accumulator of @ 1.71 . To anyone betting with REAL money .....only bet with SMALL stakes..... then you will enjoy betting.. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Bet 7 .... stake was 10 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: MULTIBET system Result of Bet 7 Alkmaar......WON...4-0 Man Utd ....WON ..4-1 Dortmund ..DREW .1-1 So, a losing accumulator. Starting Bank = £ 200-00 Bank is now = £ 208-10 ------------------------------------------ There is no system bet for weekend of 16/17 December. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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