Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

[kevshat]

One of the better tours of the winter begins on Thursday when Australia head out to South Africa. The tour begins with a couple of T20 matches and then a 3 match ODI series which is disappointing as it's more than worthy of more matches. All the tour is live on Sky in the UK and at Bet365 for those elsewhere. Should be a really competitive series with some decent bets so hopefully plenty of profit to be made. Schedule:

Thu Oct 13 16:00 GMT | 18:00 local 17:00 BST	1st T20I - South Africa v Australia Newlands, Cape Town	13 - 21° C
Sun Oct 16 12:30 GMT | 14:30 local 13:30 BST	2nd T20I - South Africa v Australia New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg	N/A
Wed Oct 19 12:30 GMT | 14:30 local 13:30 BST	1st ODI - South Africa v Australia SuperSport Park, Centurion	N/A
Sun Oct 23 11:00 GMT | 13:00 local 12:00 BST	2nd ODI - South Africa v Australia St George's Park, Port Elizabeth	N/A
Fri Oct 28 12:30 GMT | 14:30 local 13:30 BST	3rd ODI - South Africa v Australia Kingsmead, Durban	N/A

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series 1st T20 Australia to beat South Africa @ evens stan James The form book says south africa are the side in better form but australia have got a nice blend of youth and experience to their squad, going by the champions league, cummins looks a decent prospect, if warner or watto get going it takes the pressure off marsh, hussy and White, the hosts will be missing skipper de villeins and there's no albie Morkel, Kallis or steyn in the squad either, fancy the Aussies to start well here.

[dartscricketexpert]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series South Africa vs Australia ,Cape Town Team to score most 6s selection: Australia @ 11/10 Bet365 Anyone who saw the Clt20 will know what kind of form these Aussies can produce.Warner,Watson,Hussey,Marsh and Cameron White are big hitters.They clear the ropes with ease and shoudnt concede that many with Bollinger and Lee. This is not supposed to be a ground for 6 hitting so I'll avoid the overs line.Last time South Africa played here against India in an ODI back in january they didnt make a single six in 49 overs and that is almost the same side as will play today(no De Villiers or Steyn this evening).India made 5 sixes that day and I think the Aussies will do something similar later

[Wales08]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Most 6's - Australia 6/5 Coral Agree with pretty much all of the above post. Just comparing the batting line ups and it's hard not to go for them. Most of the Aus team have had some sort of practice lately with the Champions League and performed which is the important word. I think SA may find it quite tough today overall.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series 4 for me. My eggs are very much in the Australia basket :lol. 3pts Australia to win 1st T20 Evs Stan James Australia look a good bet here. Both sides are under new captains or relatively new in Cameron White's case but we've seen in his time as Victoria captain that he's more than capable of leading this Australian side. I'm not so sure about Hashim Amla purely because I'm not sure of his T20 batting credentials. This will be South Africa's first game since they were knocked out of the World Cup in March and although some of their players played in the Champions League they are still entitled to be rusty. Australia are not long off the back of a tour to Sri Lanka so they have the competitive edge and for me the better batting line up and I expect them to win this opening T20. 4pts Australia Highest 1st 6 Overs 5/6 William Hill Australia's opening pairing have to be among the most fearsome in the world right now. We all watched what Dave Warner did in the Champions League last week and Shane Watson is no mug when it comes to scoring quickly. I'm not so sure about Hashim Amla and Graeme Smith in comparison though. Both are good batsmen in their own right but over the longer format rather than this one. Dougie Bollinger usually keeps things tight with the ball and we saw Patrick Cummins bowl some good pressure overs last week. If Warner gets going the 6 overs should become a no contest so I have to take Australia here. 5pts Australia Most 6's 11/10 VC South Africa aren't too dissimilar to Sri Lanka in that they don't hit a huge amount of 6's. It's rare you see Hashim Amla hit 6's and while Graeme Smith can hit them he hasn't really been in good nick for a while. AB de Villiers would be one of South Africa's main 6 hitters and he's out for this match as is Albie Morkel who would be another one. There just doesn't look like there will be a heavy 6 hitter in this South African side unlike Australia who have at least 5 in Watson, Warner, Marsh, Hussey and White. We've seen in their careers that they can all hit a long ball and they can lead Australia to hitting the most 6's in this one. 1pt ew J-P.Duminy Top South Africa Batsman 6/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3) JP Duminy is one of the South African batsmen who have been playing competitively recently as he's been out in India with the Cape Cobras where he played quite well in the main. With no AB de Villiers in the South African line up for this game there's every chance Duminy could be in the top 4 which will give him enough time to play himself in before potentially going mental. Duminy shot to prominence against Australia and I think he can go well tonight on his home ground. With doubts over the top two and a lack of depth in the batting line up 6/1 looks a decent price on the very competent JP Duminy.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Good shout on the Aussies, Wongy. Unlucky with the 6's guys. Both White and Hussey were dismissed trying to get us the winning 6 :sad. Decent enough day for me with Duminy doing the business and 2 of the 3 Aussie bets winning. +8.54pts to take into Sunday's match.

[Wales08]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Well done on the picks guys. We were a bit unlucky on the 6's at the end.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Good work all round guys :beer

[thehulk]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series My stuff for tomorrow: TBH my conclusions are unclear on this match and it could be dangerous from a betting perspective. The head tells you it should be straight forward for Aus (lets face it they didnt get out of 2nd gear in the first game) but the stats/history suggest this may be a very hard game for them to win (not to mention SA will improve). SA are 7/10 here Aus 0/3. Will look to trade it rather than take a pre-position. Wanderers should be a flat batting track with little in it for the bowlers, should be quite a high scoring game, but again, I'm nervous when I look at the lines available and dont see much value. A) Smith V's Warner -0.5, 5/6 1/10 Needs no explanation. B) Watson -0.5 V's Amla 5/6 1/10 Dito C) Highest opening partnership Aust. 0.5 5/6 .5 unit SA's strength can be found more in their middle order, SA rust + its about time W+W fired. D) Highest 6 over total Aus 8/11, 1/10. Ditto E) SA number of extra's over 9.5 11/10. .5 units. Value play F) Aus number of extra's over 9.5 11/10. .5 units. Value play G) Highest number of 6's, Aus. 11/10 Not going overboard here as I dont liek the balance of bets I have selected + my conclusions are unclear/limited value in the lines.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Hulkster, without meaning to be a pest, or making you angry (:lol ;)) even tho bets are value plays or need no explaning, not everyone knows about cricket so let us into the secret of why they are value in your opinion because it could help out or balance someone elses opinion. Doesn't need to be an essay but some reasoning for bets is required ;). Also I might just be a bit dim tonight but that first bet looks like it's Smith to beat Warner, but I assume it's the other way around? Good luck with your plays :ok

[thehulk]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series You're not a pain at all, just after 3 hours of researching this game on a sat. night and having been up at 5 everyday this week for the tennis, I dont have the energy. Have noted it though and will try to put more meat on the bone in future. The -0.5 on Warner indicates its for Warner (but I see I left of the -!!), but yea could be clearer. The extras play is based on stats (which I'm not going into this time of night), but to summarise I don't expect both to come in but I do expect at least 1 to be covered and at 11/10 its worth taking the value as they may well both come in.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Cheers mate :ok

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Glad I avoided the first T20, not missing out on the 2nd though. 3 for me and I'm going to tackle them all in one go: - 3pts Highest 1st 6 Overs: Australia @ 5/6 [VC] - 5pts Sixes Matchbet: Australia @ 11/10 [VC] - 4pts Australia Sixes: Over 5.5 @ EVS [Ladbrokes] This is a six hitting ground. England were the last visiting team here and they ran up a 1st innings score of 202 where they hit 9 sixes. South Africa's innings was cut short by rain, they only scored 127 in 13 overs and hit 9 sixes themselves! 18 sixes in a shortened match is impressive. The over/under line for Total 6's is widely set at 10.5 which, to be honest sounds about right. If there were two teams like Australia playing tomorrow I'd definitely bite. We don't have that luxury though. We have Australia playing South Africa. A rusty South Africa too. If Graeme Smith or Hashim Amla bat for too long (which they are more than capable of doing), then their sixes count won't be that big. Duminy can clear the ropes easily but as we saw the other day, he doesn't hit out until his eye is firmly in. That's not what we have with the Aussies. The top five of Watson, Warner, Marsh, Hussey and White can ALL clear the ropes off any type of bowling at any time. I trust them alot more than the South Africans to hit sixes here and that's why I'm taking them on to hit 6 at Ladbrokes. They hit 4 last time out on a track that will be alot deader than this one and that was also without contributions from Warner or Marsh. If any of them come off tomorrow then we should be in the green. The top two naturally play aggressively as we all know so the 1st six overs looks a straight-forward one. Bollinger and Cummins looked dangerous early up the other day and it helped Australia saunter to this bet by a massive 16 runs. Smith and Amla are still very rusty despite having played a few days ago so I think it will be more of the same. Eggs very much in Australia's basket for tomorrow.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series 3 for me. 3pts Australia Highest 1st 6 Overs 5/6 Stan James Isn't a lot more to add to what I said the other day really. Australia comfortably won the 6 overs match and Dave Warner never even scored a run. This Wanderers ground definitely isn't big enough for either Warner or Watson and with Marsh and Hussey following them I expect a decent number put up from Australia here. Hashim Amla just doesn't strike me as a 20 over opener while Graeme Smith looks like he's batting in cement at the minute. Dougie Bollinger bowled tightly on Thursday as did Patrick Cummins and I see nothing to suggest things are going to change that much that South Africa will beat Australia through 6 overs here. 4pts Over 10.5 6's 5/6 William Hill We've seen in the past at The Wanderers that 6's will be hit here. It's not a very big ground at all and being at altitude the ball flies a lot further than usual. This is a day game so no atmospheric conditions are going to change and the ball won't do much for the entire game. Even though South Africa don't hit too many 6's on this ground I still expect them to hit enough to keep this line within reach, especially if the likes of Smith and Miller can get going. Australia's top 7 all hit a long ball and if they bat first they will pepper this total themselves I think. This really isn't a friendly place for the bowlers so I expect a high scoring game and a game which will contain at least 11 6's. 3pts D.Hussey's Performance Pts - 27&Over 5/6 Bet365 Points are scored as follows: 1pt per run, 10pts per catch & 20pts per wicket. This line looks a touch on the low side for a guy who I expect to bat at number four and who I wouldn't be surprised if he bowls a complete allotment of four overs with his off spin. An average day with bat and ball will be enough to cover this line but he more than has the potential to cover it with either, especially with the bat. He scored 25 in Cape Town on Thursday and would've scored more had he not looked to end the match with a maximum but on this good batting deck and small ground I expect him to bat even better here. His off spin is improving and with batsmen having to get after him he could easily pick up a cheap wicket added to all that the potential for catches and I think this 27pt target is well within reach for David Hussey in this second T20.

[thehulk]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series What a strange game, happy I only lost a few hundred quid. Watson pulling out didnt help 3 of my bets, but overall happy I didnt get too involved.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Pretty good overall, only the Aussies slow start, hampered by no Watson and a frustrated Warner being a downside! Not sure how the extras finished but Aussies covered their line with ease thanks to Mitchell Marsh and Parnell and Theron ensured the total 6's sailed over 10.5! Throw in Husseys performance and you get another profitable match! Good work guys :clap

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

LOSS - 3pts Highest 1st 6 Overs: Australia @ 5/6 [VC] WIN - 5pts Sixes Matchbet: Australia @ 11/10 [VC] WIN - 4pts Australia Sixes: Over 5.5 @ EVS [Ladbrokes]

Watson not playing didn't really help proceedings but overall it went pretty much to plan. +6.50 for the match which is a nice start heading into the ODI series. Played Kev.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Looking to carry on the success of the 2nd T20 with the following: - 6pts Total Match Wides: Over 15.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] South Africa have named Imran Tahir in their ODI squad for this series but there are a few scattered thunderstorms lurking tomorrow so I don't think he'll feature. Therefore we should get quite a few pace bowlers tomorrow and that signals wides. Dale Steyn. Morne Morkel. Llonwabo Ttosobe. Dougie Bollinger. Mitchell Johnson and the debutant Pat Cummins. All of those can generate speeds of 85mph+ and on a pitch which can offer shit for the bowlers I sense a few loose deliveries and over the head wides. Definitely. Australia have never been tight with the extras. You'd think that maybe they'd be reduced with the absence of Brett Lee but with Pat Cummins coming in on debut full of nerves, I reckon it balances out. Likewise if any of the South Africans stray down leg, they have enough pace to take it to the boundary. There's a nice mix of right and left handers throughout both teams too which aids this market nicely. I'll take overs quite confidently at Centurion tomorrow. - 4pts Fall of Australia First Wicket: Under 30.5 runs @ 5/6 [Ladbrokes] One thing that South Africa have always been good at is striking early. Okay so they haven't played a lot of cricket in the past seven months but despite that I don't think their wicket taking abilities will have changed that much in that time. If you asked me which opening pair I would least want to face first up with a brand new white kookaburra cherry in a match being played in Jo'burg... My answer would definitely be Steyn and Morkel. That's what Asutralia have here. Watson will almost certainly be ruled out tomorrow and Shaun Marsh will come in to replace him. Marsh as an opener? Not so sure. Warner opening coming off the back off two straight ducks in South African conditions? Not so sure. If you want some statistics to back this up I'll give you them. South Africa struck before 31 runs in every single one of their world cup games earlier on in the year barring the one time where Sachin Tendulkar and Virender Sehwag took them to the sword. You will be hard pushed to find a better opening pair than those two in the history of cricket so you can let them off there. They didn't always open with Steyn and Morkel either. Sometimes it was Petersen/Steyn. Sometimes it was Ttosobe/Botha! Whichever pairing it was. Unders always prevailed. I like unders here and Ladbrokes offer the highest line around at 30.5. I'm involved.

[kevshat]

Good luck with those mate. Got to disagree on Shaun Marsh though. I think he's a quality opening batsman. That's definitely his best position for me. I'm really looking forward to this series and really wanted to get stuck into it here but with 90% chance of rain for most of the day I just can't bring myself to do it. Hopefully if it does piss down all day they'll show the 430 vs 430 game from JoBurg rather than some game from this ground in Centurion. Sent from my Desire HD using PL Forum

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series 1st odi Brad Haddin performance pts 30 and over 5/6 bet365 If there is a bit of weather about could be a few edges from the aus pace attack, plus he's no mug with the. Bat. Think the line is on the low side so im in.

[crowbot]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

Hopefully if it does piss down all day they'll show the 430 vs 430 game from JoBurg rather than some game from this ground in Centurion.

You reminded me about a guy in Australia that placed $20,000 on Australia to win that match at $1.01 after Australia scored 434 :unsure I mean lets face it no one would ever believe that total would be mowed down against an Australian attack, so I can appreciate his bad misfortune!

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

VOID - 6pts Total Match Wides: Over 15.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] WIN - 4pts Fall of Australia First Wicket: Under 30.5 runs @ 5/6 [Ladbrokes]

We only had 51 overs of cricket today and we still generated 14 wides. So much rain meant the bet was voided though so it's all good. Steyn absolutely cleaned Warner up early on though to ensure profit for the match. +9.82 for the series.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

You reminded me about a guy in Australia that placed $20,000 on Australia to win that match at $1.01 after Australia scored 434 :unsure I mean lets face it no one would ever believe that total would be mowed down against an Australian attack, so I can appreciate his bad misfortune!

If a total can be hit mate it can be chased down :ok. It's no co-incidence that Mick Lewis hasn't seen an Australian shirt since though :lol.

We only had 51 overs of cricket today and we still generated 14 wides. So much rain meant the bet was voided though so it's all good. Steyn absolutely cleaned Warner up early on though to ensure profit for the match. +9.82 for the series.

Top work mate :clap.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Not doing too badly here. Need to keep that going with two: - 6pts Total Match Wides: Over 15.5 @ 5/6 [WillHIll] - 4pts Total Boundaries: Over 49.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] Not much to add onto the wides than what's already been said before. We got 14 wides in only 51% of the time last time out and with no rain scheduled for tomorrow and similar line-ups expected, I can only envisage more of the same. Other bookies have cottoned on by making this price 8/11. Hills have it at 5/6 still. Get on it whilst you still can. With regards to the boundaries, I see a lot. This match is susceptible to alot of runs. If oyu remove the odd match where England destroyed SA for 119 in '09, the average score here is 257. There are always boundaries here too. We have alot of players who hit fours on both teams here with Smith, Amla, Kallis, Ponting, Hussey and Clarke all going to line-up. Ponting and Clarke were hitting fours for fun the other day too. I see alot of runs tomorrow, good weather and a lot of boundaries. Overs in both circumstances in Port Elizabeth.

[thehulk]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Should be in for a full game tomorrow but still too many variables to make solid conclusions. We need to see the team details (Watson & Marsh could return) and I'm waiting on some performance lines before putting too much money into this. In theory we should be in for a crackign game and history suggests we will, I'm not so sure though. For SA to make this competitve I think Kallis has to come to the party or another t20 (2nd match) effort. He averages almost 50 on thsi ground and has taken 14 wickets (ODI averages). We really could get anything tomorrow imo. which makes me nervous. My angle will be: A) 3/10 - Kallis performance market B) 4/10 - Perhaps Aus highest 15 over total (depending on the team and who opens) C) 1/10 - Looking to oppose Warner and perhaps Smith in individual markets D) 8/10 Aus Main Line (will trade out if Kallis looks dangerous/I smell danager).

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Bit late for this 2nd ODI but I'm going with 3. 4pts Australia Most 6's 6/5 Victor Chandler I see no real rhyme or reason why VC have South Africa as favourites in the 6's market. The first ODI was a 3-3 draw but Australia had set out to play 50 overs so really only slogged for 10 overs after the rain came and Warner was long gone by then. Such was the DL total that they faced that South Africa were slogging from the outset and they still only tied. There won't be no need for DL or any sort of interruption here so this 6's match will be over 50 overs. Australia are set to bring either Shaun Marsh or Shane Watson back who both hit 6's as well as Warner while the likes of Hussey, Mitchell Marsh, Haddin and even Johnson all hit a long ball. Faf du Plessis can give it a biff but he bats at 6 and SA could be in all sorts of pressure by then. As a general rule with the likes of Amla and Kallis taking up most of the overs when batting and neither being natural big hitters, SA don't hit many 6's at all. Australia do and I think they'll hit the most here. 3pts G.Smith's Match Runs - Under 26.5 5/6 Ladbrokes I know Graeme Smith is never the most aesthetic batsman in the world but even by his standards he's looked horrible this summer so far. Technically he's all over the place and this thing with left arm seamers seems to have got right into his head. You get the feeling that he doesn't know where his next run is coming from right now and I believe it's only his reputation and perhaps the lack of a genuine quality replacement that is keeping him in this side right now. This can't be described as his best ground either having only passed 20 once in his last 9 ODI's and most of those were during his pomp. He's certainly not in his pomp at the minute so I'm happy to take the unders here. 1pt ew J.Botha Top South Africa Batsman 12/1 Coral (1/5 1,2,3) Johan Botha looks like a fair bet here. He was second in the opening ODI the other night and would've top scored but for misjudging his position and stepping on the stumps playing a pull shot. Botha is a very competent batsmen who can play the nudge and nurdle innings or play the big shots. We've seen the big shots innings during the Champions League but he's a very underrated batsman for the Proteas. He made 44 in the last ODI on this ground and with South Africa's top order not all firing there's every chance he'll have enough time at the crease to play himself in before he goes berserk. At 12/1 the Northants man looks a decent price for an ew bet this afternoon.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series

LOSS - 6pts Total Match Wides: Over 15.5 @ 5/6 [WillHIll] LOSS - 4pts Total Boundaries: Over 49.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill]

46 boundaries. 9 wides. Quite annoying actually because Australia bowled 12 leg byes today and they were all balls which were agonisingly close to being 5 wides but became leg-byes by virtue of just clipping the batsman's pads. Clarke, Ponting and Watson getting 26 runs between didn't really help the boundary chase either. All the good work done in this series completely undone today. -0.82 for the series.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Unlucky Tyler mate. One of those days all round for us both here I think :( Complete blowout for me in that match. I was toast once Shane Watson never opened really. Sets up a potentially cracking decider though. -9 for the day but +2.38 for the limited overs cricket overall.

[thehulk]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series This has been a strange series and hard to call, mainly I think down to the SA's being rusty and Aus having injury probs. With this in mind I will give the 3rd ODI a wide berth + the toss (and batting first) is generally a big advantage at Kingsmead. Aussies have gone well here and generally its a high scoring ground. Kallis firing at the 2nd ODI helped me out, apart from brigning in the performance bet it enabled me to get out of Aus ML for a small loss and covered smith/Warner losses. All in all down about 1 unit here. Really not imrpessed with warner, I dont think he will establsih himself in anythign but t20. When I reflect back on this game, one moment could have changed the game to be such a different result - that was the Miller LBW review (he got the faintest of nicks to save him) just before the batting PP started. gl with the decider.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Australia T20 Internationals & ODI Series Swerving this one tomorrow. This has been an unpredictable series to say the least and with the unknown quantities of Watson and Marsh and the forecasted rain I'll definitely steer clear. Good luck to anyone involved :ok