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Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20)

Sawyer

By Sawyer
in Glory Hunters

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carioksteam

carioksteam

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+1073.34 Profit, Bankroll +%53. Hey Stable Master's. I was thinking again today about your staking method after you asked opinions... Although the idea of adjusting your stakes according to the odds and adjusting your 2% according to your bank everyday may sound good as it apparently makes your bank grow faster(I also thought at the beginning that it was a great idea, and still maybe with a few tweaks) I think I have noticed a problem now. When you are betting like this you are not maximizing your winnings at low odds because even if the odds are 3.00 or 4.00 you still bet only 2%, I know it is also a protection because those horses have "better chances of winning" but at the same time you leave too much on the table when they lose and after all, if you think the horse is gonna win you wouldn't lay it. Would you? So if you believe your selection system, which I think you do, changing that would be something to think about! (I believe your selections myself at this point! It is a quite amazing striking rate so far). Another problem is the ever moving liability, I think that if the liability grows according to your bank you will most likely end up where you started. Most of the losses so far were at the peak of the bank until that moment but the winnings were not at the the same level of the loss....(you might have won the races when 2% represented $55 but your loss for example was when the 2% represented $61 and the liability represented the % of the peak of the bank) this will always make you go back to were you started after a couple of straight losses. To be honest your striking rate is great and fixed liability would most likely be the best option. As you said, you had amazing profit last month using fixed liability. With fixed you don't increase the stakes everyday like on your method but your bank will also not go back to the starting point as quickly as it went up. The way you are doing you could see profitability with your amazing striking rate but it will be nothing like fixed liability in the long run. I have ran the numbers myself, checking the odds of each horse since you started and if you were doing fixed liability you would be almost $200 better off today. PS: I don't mean to criticize you on a bad way or to hijack your post or anything. I am just trying to help out. In fact, I wanted to send you this via PM instead of posting it here as I don't know how you'd take it but I cannot send PMs yet. So I hope it is fine here! GL always:hope :cheers

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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Very good Winning Streak going on! May I ask what was your longest losing streak? GL with today's races...
"1" since 1 September. My longest losing streak is so far this year is 2, happened once this summer.
Oh no! Ireland is not helping us today at all.... :@
Yeah, unlucky. Over the long haul, we will have days like this. Hope to build another winning streak. :ok
Hey Stable Master's. I was thinking again today about your staking method after you asked opinions... Although the idea of adjusting your stakes according to the odds and adjusting your 2% according to your bank everyday may sound good as it apparently makes your bank grow faster(I also thought at the beginning that it was a great idea, and still maybe with a few tweaks) I think I have noticed a problem now. When you are betting like this you are not maximizing your winnings at low odds because even if the odds are 3.00 or 4.00 you still bet only 2%, I know it is also a protection because those horses have "better chances of winning" but at the same time you leave too much on the table when they lose and after all, if you think the horse is gonna win you wouldn't lay it. Would you? So if you believe your selection system, which I think you do, changing that would be something to think about! (I believe your selections myself at this point! It is a quite amazing striking rate so far). Another problem is the ever moving liability, I think that if the liability grows according to your bank you will most likely end up where you started. Most of the losses so far were at the peak of the bank until that moment but the winnings were not at the the same level of the loss....(you might have won the races when 2% represented $55 but your loss for example was when the 2% represented $61 and the liability represented the % of the peak of the bank) this will always make you go back to were you started after a couple of straight losses. To be honest your striking rate is great and fixed liability would most likely be the best option. As you said, you had amazing profit last month using fixed liability. With fixed you don't increase the stakes everyday like on your method but your bank will also not go back to the starting point as quickly as it went up. The way you are doing you could see profitability with your amazing striking rate but it will be nothing like fixed liability in the long run. I have ran the numbers myself, checking the odds of each horse since you started and if you were doing fixed liability you would be almost $200 better off today.
Thank you for sharing your opinions with me. I must admit it was a very delicious reply, reading it with pleasure.
When you are betting like this you are not maximizing your winnings at low odds because even if the odds are 3.00 or 4.00 you still bet only 2%, I know it is also a protection because those horses have "better chances of winning" but at the same time you leave too much on the table when they lose and after all, if you think the horse is gonna win you wouldn't lay it. Would you?
Definetely. I understand your point. In August, I was using fixed liability. Specially when a 3/1 horse lay wins, profit was massive. The only thing bothers me was 8/1, 7/1 horse profits were too small. I asked to myself, 3/1 horse will win more often then a 8/1 horse, isn't it? So why I'm laying both with same liability? So developped this stake table. I don't say it's flawless, maybe profit would be higher with fixed liability. But even if I use fixed liability, still it's a good idea to increase stakes as bankroll grows up in my opinion. You know snowball effect :D Thanks for the feedback again.
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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+1073.34 Profit, Bankroll +%53. 20 Oct Recap 17.25thu magdoodle 9.4 (Lay to win %1.7) -439.11 17.40wol the dancing lord 4.8 (Lay to win %2) +58.42 15.20thu barel of laughs 7.0 (Lay to win %1.9) -350.55 16.15lud papradon 5.6 (Lay to win %2.0) +58.42 Profit: -672.82 Bankroll is down to 2400,52. It will take some time to reach 3000 again but we will do it :ok

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carioksteam

carioksteam

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20)

Definetely. I understand your point. In August, I was using fixed liability. Specially when a 3/1 horse lay wins, profit was massive. The only thing bothers me was 8/1, 7/1 horse profits were too small. I asked to myself, 3/1 horse will win more often then a 8/1 horse, isn't it? So why I'm laying both with same liability? So developped this stake table. I don't say it's flawless, maybe profit would be higher with fixed liability. But even if I use fixed liability, still it's a good idea to increase stakes as bankroll grows up in my opinion. You know snowball effect :D Thanks for the feedback again.
Yeah, I totally agree that with fixed liability It is still a good idea to increase stakes. But you can do it maybe each time your bank grows $1000 or so instead of everyday. Well, your system will be profitable with your striking rates... Question is, how profitable? I guess everybody is after the largest profitability they can get! Lets keep on watching closely. It will be very interesting to see how it is gonna do in the long run. Maybe I am mistaken and it will do better than fixed liability. ;) Thanks for accepting the inputs well. GL always! :cow
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Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 21 October Friday 2011 Lays Very unlucky yesterday. Both losses were too close. Leading horse reaches 1,08 and 1,26 (in 17:25 race) but fails to win..Still can't believe it. But it happens.. Whatever, it's a new sunny day. Ready to build another winning streak. Laying to win 61,50. No Retreat, No Surrender! First race of the day, 13.20new usain colt 4.5 Will add more later..

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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 15.30new main focus 7.4 (Laying to win 55.35) 19.35dun lady fashion 7.2 (Laying to win 55.35) Will add more (probably 1 or 2) plays later.. Upgraded Stake Table as, 2.00-6.80 %2.0 7.00-7.80 %1.8 8.00-8.80 %1.6 9.00-10.00 %1.4

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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 13.20new usain colt 4.5 -215.25 15.30new main focus 7.4 +52.58 17.35 Hot Head 8.2 +46.74 19.35dun lady fashion 7.2 +52.58 Profit: -63.35 Had a losing day but damage is not big hopefully, just -63,35. We can recover this weekend..or later. No need to hurry. See you tomorrow ;)

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Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 22 Oct Saturday 2011 Lays Horse-racing.jpeg 14.55ain ballyholland 7.51 (%1.8) 17.15ain ackertac 6.60 (%2.0) 17.20don ted's brother 8.2 (%1.6) %2 is 61,50 %1.8 is 54,90 %1.6 is 49,20 GL!

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Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 10/24 Monday Lays 14.00lei emirates jack 8.8 Matched (%1.6) 14:10red Wish Again 7.6 Matched(Uncle timmy&Celestial dawn must start) (%1.8) 16.40red fair bunny Placed on 10, Waiting to be matched (%1.4) 17:10red Red Scintilla 10.5&10.00 Matched (%1.4) %2 is 61,50 %1.8 is 54,90 %1.6 is 49,20 2.00-6.80 %2.0 7.00-7.80 %1.8 8.00-8.80 %1.6 9.00-10.50 %1.4

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carioksteam

carioksteam

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) on 16:40 red Fair Bunny is it lay on to be Placed? I see much lower numbers than 10 for that. and if it is to WIN I see much higher numbers. Sorry if I sound stupid but could you clarify pls? GL Always :hope

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Sawyer

Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20)

on 16:40 red Fair Bunny is it lay on to be Placed? I see much lower numbers than 10 for that. and if it is to WIN I see much higher numbers. Sorry if I sound stupid but could you clarify pls? GL Always :hope
No, not to be placed, it's to win market. It's 22 now so I'm waiting at 10, will keep in-play, hope it gets matched during race.
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Sawyer

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) 10/25 Lays 14.50cat fast shot 9.8&10.00 15.20cat mohawk ridge 6.6 16.00yar the auction 3.0 16.40che super collider 8.2 14.00yar master of ages Waiting at 10, Not matched yet, Will keep in play. 14:20cat Crimson Knot 7.6 Will add one more..

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carioksteam

carioksteam

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Re: Stable Master's Treasure Quest: 20,000 Challenge (+400 Profit, Bankroll +%20) Have you given up Stable Master's or you are reviewing your selection method? Let us know.. I was following you quest enthusiastically. If your average strike rate is good you shouldn't give up on the quest... Bad times occur with any system. All the best! :ok

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